A-REIT valuation model

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A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 31 January 2014

This week it was the parting gift from Mr Bernake, as he leaves the US Fed, winding back the money printing (US Stimulus package) for February 2014 by a further $10 billion per month. Global markets had a panic attack particularly impacting on "emerging" markets as US investors pulled their funds out of the developing countries and took it home. All on the basis that the US economy is improving and future returns will be better in the US than they will be in the "emerging" economies. Naturally our Aud$ jigged up and down as did our A-REIT prices. Makes for day to day volatility but also a very unstable market sector and dubious reliability for trading.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 31 January 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.240	1,108,756,067	0.1368	6.11%	0.1650	7.37%	16.37	2.32	3.45%
ALZ	3.880	2,243,899,720	0.3120	8.04%	0.2150	5.54%	12.44	3.57	-8.68%
AOG	2.130	1,065,237,410	0.0087	0.41%	0.0087	0.41%	244.83	3.53	39.66%
BWP	2.220	1,392,308,340	0.2078	9.36%	0.1405	6.33%	10.68	1.93	-15.03%
CDI	2.500	535,252,533	0.1890	7.56%	0.1780	7.12%	13.23	2.74	8.76%
CFX	1.940	5,545,076,179	0.1044	5.38%	0.1360	7.01%	18.58	2.04	4.90%
CHC	3.710	1,146,642,914	0.1829	4.93%	0.2020	5.44%	20.28	2.13	-74.18%
CQR	3.580	1,223,801,090	0.1624	4.54%	0.2680	7.49%	22.04	3.32	-7.83%
CPA	1.230	2,886,814,198	0.0619	5.03%	0.0655	5.33%	19.87	1.15	-6.96%
CMW	0.955	1,641,795,185	0.0344	3.60%	0.0730	7.64%	27.76	0.70	-36.43%
DXS	0.995	4,605,087,284	0.1091	10.96%	0.0600	6.03%	9.12	1.05	5.24%
FDC	2.270	3,240,746,353	0.1479	6.52%	0.1410	6.21%	15.35	2.22	-2.25%
GMG	4.670	8,026,528,918	0.0963	2.06%	0.1940	4.15%	48.49	2.69	-73.61%
GPT	3.610	6,118,547,983	0.3345	9.27%	0.1980	5.48%	10.79	3.76	3.99%
IOF	3.100	1,903,547,120	0.1600	5.16%	0.1775	5.73%	19.38	3.14	1.27%
MGR	1.670	6,120,447,592	0.0406	2.43%	0.0870	5.21%	41.13	1.62	-3.09%
SCP	1.485	963,213,055	0.1220	8.22%	0.1080	7.27%	12.17	1.57	5.41%
SGP	3.630	8,369,875,212	0.0470	1.29%	0.2400	6.61%	77.23	3.50	-3.71%
WDC	10.200	21,557,718,503	0.6424	6.30%	0.5025	4.93%	15.88	6.99	-45.92%
WRT	3.020	8,821,400,775	0.2670	8.84%	0.1942	6.43%	11.31	3.47	12.97%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		24-Jan-14	31-Jan-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.270	2.240	-0.030	-1.32%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.850	3.880	0.030	0.78%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.150	2.130	-0.020	-0.93%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.220	2.220	0.000	0.00%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.500	2.500	0.000	0.00%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.965	1.940	-0.025	-1.27%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.730	3.710	-0.020	-0.54%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.640	3.580	-0.060	-1.65%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.230	1.230	0.000	0.00%
Cromwell	CMW	0.985	0.955	-0.030	-3.05%
Dexus	DXS	1.030	0.995	-0.035	-3.40%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.310	2.270	-0.040	-1.73%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.760	4.670	-0.090	-1.89%
GPT Group	GPT	3.570	3.610	0.040	1.12%
Investa Office	IOF	3.200	3.100	-0.100	-3.13%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.700	1.670	-0.030	-1.76%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.500	1.485	-0.015	-1.00%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.700	3.630	-0.070	-1.89%
Westfield	WDC	9.970	10.200	0.230	2.31%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.020	3.020	0.000	0.00%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

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A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 07 February 2014

While Westfield Group and Westfield retail trust had the excuse of going ex-div on Friday to justify falls in value of around 2% for the week, I'm not sure why Australand dropped. I suspect IOF dropped mainly because I bought some and chose it in the stock picking competition . Most of the other shares in the A-Reit list managed to finish the week with small improvements. We should thank Mr Glenn Stevens and the other Board members of the RBA for holding off on "jaw boning" the Aud$ and our economy in their meeting notes for last Tuesday.
The market reaction, across the All Ords, to a perception that our economy is also starting to transition from reliance entirely on the mining sector, was to reverse the recent down trend (for now). The Aud$ jumped $0.02 against the US$ and on Friday the A-REIT sector opened strongly. Unfortunately the sudden rise was to much for many holders, who quickly took advantage of the price rises to cash out, sending the prices tumbling back to a couple of cents better than Thursdays closing prices. Whether it was a dead cat bounce or the start of better things remains to be seen. It was better than a poke in the eye with a blunt stick and a couple of quick trading opportunities.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending )7 February 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.240	1,108,756,067	0.1368	6.11%	0.1650	7.37%	16.37	2.32	3.45%
ALZ	3.800	2,197,633,746	0.3120	8.21%	0.2150	5.66%	12.18	3.57	-6.44%
AOG	2.160	1,080,240,754	0.0087	0.40%	0.0087	0.40%	248.28	3.53	38.81%
BWP	2.240	1,404,851,659	0.2078	9.28%	0.1405	6.27%	10.78	1.93	-16.06%
CDI	2.520	539,534,553	0.1890	7.50%	0.1780	7.06%	13.33	2.74	8.03%
CFX	1.930	5,516,493,312	0.1044	5.41%	0.1360	7.05%	18.49	2.04	5.39%
CHC	3.810	1,177,549,732	0.1829	4.80%	0.2020	5.30%	20.83	2.13	-78.87%
CQR	3.570	1,220,382,652	0.1624	4.55%	0.2680	7.51%	21.98	3.32	-7.53%
CPA	1.235	2,898,549,215	0.0619	5.01%	0.0655	5.30%	19.95	1.15	-7.39%
CMW	0.970	1,667,582,544	0.0344	3.55%	0.0730	7.53%	28.20	0.70	-38.57%
DXS	1.020	4,720,792,995	0.1091	10.70%	0.0600	5.88%	9.35	1.05	2.86%
FDC	2.330	3,326,404,846	0.1479	6.35%	0.1410	6.05%	15.75	2.22	-4.95%
GMG	4.780	8,215,590,627	0.0963	2.01%	0.1940	4.06%	49.64	2.69	-77.70%
GPT	3.600	6,101,599,097	0.3345	9.29%	0.1980	5.50%	10.76	3.76	4.26%
IOF	3.050	1,872,844,747	0.1600	5.25%	0.1775	5.82%	19.06	3.14	2.87%
MGR	1.685	6,175,421,672	0.0406	2.41%	0.0870	5.16%	41.50	1.62	-4.01%
SCP	1.505	976,185,622	0.1220	8.11%	0.1080	7.18%	12.34	1.57	4.14%
SGP	3.660	8,439,047,734	0.0470	1.28%	0.2400	6.56%	77.87	3.50	-4.57%
WDC	9.940	21,008,208,031	0.6424	6.46%	0.5025	5.06%	15.47	6.99	-42.20%
WRT	2.960	8,646,141,157	0.2670	9.02%	0.1942	6.56%	11.09	3.47	14.70%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		31-Jan-14	7-Feb-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.240	2.240	0.000	0.00%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.880	3.800	-0.080	-2.06%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.130	2.160	0.030	1.41%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.220	2.240	0.020	0.90%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.500	2.520	0.020	0.80%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.940	1.930	-0.010	-0.52%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.710	3.810	0.100	2.70%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.580	3.570	-0.010	-0.28%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.230	1.235	0.005	0.41%
Cromwell	CMW	0.955	0.970	0.015	1.57%
Dexus	DXS	0.995	1.020	0.025	2.51%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.270	2.330	0.060	2.64%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.670	4.780	0.110	2.36%
GPT Group	GPT	3.610	3.600	-0.010	-0.28%
Investa Office	IOF	3.100	3.050	-0.050	-1.61%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.670	1.685	0.015	0.90%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.485	1.505	0.020	1.35%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.630	3.660	0.030	0.83%
Westfield	WDC	10.200	9.940	-0.260	-2.55%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.020	2.960	-0.060	-1.99%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 14 February 2014

The A-REIT Sector bounced this week with a strong reversal of performance on the previous week by both Westfield Group and Westfield Retail Trust. Even Australand rebounded. Seems residential property is back in favor, for now.

Unemployment may be up at 6% and the manufacturing sector is not rallying at the desired rate but consumer spending is improved so much with the reports from the banks showing that they are making billions off credit card spending, Woolworths is improving market share and Coles is expected to do likewise. The market reaction to the initial reports is positive pushing our All Ords higher despite all the gloom and doomers projecting an imminent correction.

It is also claimed that a few institutional shorters may have seen fit to close out some of their shorts just in case there is something to the present optimism. This likely would have helped the share price run-up.
These two articles in today's Sydney Morning Herald Business Section are worth a read also:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/homing-in-on-a-boom-20140214-32r3s.html
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/early-market-signals-20140214-32r3q.html



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 14 February 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.300	1,138,454,890	0.1368	5.95%	0.1650	7.17%	16.81	2.32	0.86%
ALZ	3.910	2,261,249,460	0.3120	7.98%	0.2150	5.50%	12.53	3.57	-9.52%
AOG	2.250	1,125,250,785	0.0087	0.39%	0.0087	0.39%	258.62	3.53	36.26%
BWP	2.320	1,455,024,932	0.2078	8.96%	0.1405	6.06%	11.16	1.93	-20.21%
CDI	2.530	541,675,563	0.1890	7.47%	0.1780	7.04%	13.39	2.74	7.66%
CFX	1.950	5,573,659,046	0.1044	5.35%	0.1360	6.97%	18.68	2.04	4.41%
CHC	3.890	1,202,275,185	0.1829	4.70%	0.2020	5.19%	21.27	2.13	-82.63%
CQR	3.660	1,251,148,601	0.1624	4.44%	0.2680	7.32%	22.54	3.32	-10.24%
CPA	1.255	2,945,489,283	0.0619	4.93%	0.0655	5.22%	20.27	1.15	-9.13%
CMW	0.985	1,693,369,903	0.0344	3.49%	0.0730	7.41%	28.63	0.70	-40.71%
DXS	1.065	4,929,063,274	0.1091	10.24%	0.0600	5.63%	9.76	1.05	-1.43%
FDC	2.370	3,383,510,509	0.1479	6.24%	0.1410	5.95%	16.02	2.22	-6.76%
GMG	4.810	8,267,152,911	0.0963	2.00%	0.1940	4.03%	49.95	2.69	-78.81%
GPT	3.660	6,203,292,415	0.3345	9.14%	0.1980	5.41%	10.94	3.76	2.66%
IOF	3.100	1,903,547,120	0.1600	5.16%	0.1775	5.73%	19.38	3.14	1.27%
MGR	1.740	6,376,993,300	0.0406	2.33%	0.0870	5.00%	42.86	1.62	-7.41%
SCP	1.555	1,008,617,038	0.1220	7.85%	0.1080	6.95%	12.75	1.57	0.96%
SGP	3.900	8,992,427,913	0.0470	1.21%	0.2400	6.15%	82.98	3.50	-11.43%
WDC	10.270	21,705,663,630	0.6424	6.26%	0.5025	4.89%	15.99	6.99	-46.92%
WRT	3.060	8,938,240,520	0.2670	8.73%	0.1942	6.35%	11.46	3.47	11.82%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		7-Feb-14	14-Feb-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.240	2.300	0.060	2.68%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.800	3.910	0.110	2.89%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.160	2.250	0.090	4.17%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.240	2.320	0.080	3.57%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.520	2.530	0.010	0.40%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.930	1.950	0.020	1.04%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.810	3.890	0.080	2.10%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.570	3.660	0.090	2.52%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.235	1.255	0.020	1.62%
Cromwell	CMW	0.970	0.985	0.015	1.55%
Dexus	DXS	1.020	1.065	0.045	4.41%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.330	2.370	0.040	1.72%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.780	4.810	0.030	0.63%
GPT Group	GPT	3.600	3.660	0.060	1.67%
Investa Office	IOF	3.050	3.100	0.050	1.64%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.685	1.740	0.055	3.26%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.505	1.555	0.050	3.32%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.660	3.900	0.240	6.56%
Westfield	WDC	9.940	10.270	0.330	3.32%
Westfield Retail	WRT	2.960	3.060	0.100	3.38%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 21 February 2014

A stellar week as the A-REIT Sector continued the upwards surge following the strong lead from the All Ords and no doubt benefiting from the gains in the Aud$ v's the US$. Some of the shares are getting close to their May 2013 peaks so it will be interesting to see how much higher they can go?



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending )14 February 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.330	1,153,304,302	0.1368	5.87%	0.1650	7.08%	17.03	2.32	-0.43%
ALZ	3.850	2,226,549,980	0.3120	8.10%	0.2150	5.58%	12.34	3.57	-7.84%
AOG	2.060	1,030,229,608	0.0087	0.42%	0.0087	0.42%	236.78	3.53	41.64%
BWP	2.390	1,498,926,546	0.2078	8.69%	0.1405	5.88%	11.50	1.93	-23.83%
CDI	2.520	539,534,553	0.1890	7.50%	0.1780	7.06%	13.33	2.74	8.03%
CFX	1.990	5,687,990,513	0.1044	5.25%	0.1360	6.83%	19.06	2.04	2.45%
CHC	4.050	1,251,726,093	0.1829	4.52%	0.2020	4.99%	22.14	2.13	-90.14%
CQR	3.640	1,244,311,723	0.1624	4.46%	0.2680	7.36%	22.41	3.32	-9.64%
CPA	1.255	2,945,489,283	0.0619	4.93%	0.0655	5.22%	20.27	1.15	-9.13%
CMW	0.995	1,710,561,476	0.0344	3.46%	0.0730	7.34%	28.92	0.70	-42.14%
DXS	1.075	4,975,345,558	0.1091	10.15%	0.0600	5.58%	9.85	1.05	-2.38%
FDC	2.450	3,497,721,834	0.1479	6.04%	0.1410	5.76%	16.57	2.22	-10.36%
GMG	4.850	8,335,902,624	0.0963	1.99%	0.1940	4.00%	50.36	2.69	-80.30%
GPT	3.700	6,271,087,961	0.3345	9.04%	0.1980	5.35%	11.06	3.76	1.60%
IOF	3.160	1,940,389,967	0.1600	5.06%	0.1775	5.62%	19.75	3.14	-0.64%
MGR	1.765	6,468,616,767	0.0406	2.30%	0.0870	4.93%	43.47	1.62	-8.95%
SCP	1.600	1,037,805,312	0.1220	7.63%	0.1080	6.75%	13.11	1.57	-1.91%
SGP	3.950	9,107,715,451	0.0470	1.19%	0.2400	6.08%	84.04	3.50	-12.86%
WDC	10.530	22,255,174,101	0.6424	6.10%	0.5025	4.77%	16.39	6.99	-50.64%
WRT	3.140	9,171,920,011	0.2670	8.50%	0.1942	6.18%	11.76	3.47	9.51%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		14-Feb-14	21-Feb-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.300	2.330	0.030	1.30%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.910	3.850	-0.060	-1.53%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.250	2.060	-0.190	-8.44%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.320	2.390	0.070	3.02%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.530	2.520	-0.010	-0.40%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.950	1.990	0.040	2.05%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.890	4.050	0.160	4.11%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.660	3.640	-0.020	-0.55%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.255	1.255	0.000	0.00%
Cromwell	CMW	0.985	0.995	0.010	1.02%
Dexus	DXS	1.065	1.075	0.010	0.94%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.370	2.450	0.080	3.38%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.810	4.850	0.040	0.83%
GPT Group	GPT	3.660	3.700	0.040	1.09%
Investa Office	IOF	3.100	3.160	0.060	1.94%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.740	1.765	0.025	1.44%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.555	1.600	0.045	2.89%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.900	3.950	0.050	1.28%
Westfield	WDC	10.270	10.530	0.260	2.53%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.060	3.140	0.080	2.61%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 28 February 2014

The upwards surge certainly faltered as the local and international news impacted market confidence. Once again a former soviet state has grabbed the headlines and led to a verbal stoush between Russia and the US. So nothing really changed except it gave the players an opportunity to push the markets down for a few days. The A-REIT sector was no exception and the gains from the first three weeks of February were cut back in the last week.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 28 February 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.310	1,143,404,694	0.1368	5.92%	0.1650	7.14%	16.89	2.32	0.43%
ALZ	3.910	2,261,249,460	0.3120	7.98%	0.2150	5.50%	12.53	3.57	-9.52%
AOG	2.080	1,040,231,837	0.0087	0.42%	0.0087	0.42%	239.08	3.53	41.08%
BWP	2.380	1,492,654,887	0.2078	8.73%	0.1405	5.90%	11.45	1.93	-23.32%
CDI	2.540	543,816,573	0.1890	7.44%	0.1780	7.01%	13.44	2.74	7.30%
CFX	1.970	5,630,824,779	0.1044	5.30%	0.1360	6.90%	18.87	2.04	3.43%
CHC	4.020	1,242,454,047	0.1829	4.55%	0.2020	5.02%	21.98	2.13	-88.73%
CQR	3.600	1,230,637,968	0.1624	4.51%	0.2680	7.44%	22.17	3.32	-8.43%
CPA	1.250	2,933,754,266	0.0619	4.95%	0.0655	5.24%	20.19	1.15	-8.70%
CMW	0.990	1,701,965,689	0.0344	3.47%	0.0730	7.37%	28.78	0.70	-41.43%
DXS	1.070	4,952,204,416	0.1091	10.20%	0.0600	5.61%	9.81	1.05	-1.90%
FDC	2.390	3,412,063,340	0.1479	6.19%	0.1410	5.90%	16.16	2.22	-7.66%
GMG	4.800	8,249,965,483	0.0963	2.01%	0.1940	4.04%	49.84	2.69	-78.44%
GPT	3.720	6,304,985,733	0.3345	8.99%	0.1980	5.32%	11.12	3.76	1.06%
IOF	3.200	1,964,951,866	0.1600	5.00%	0.1775	5.55%	20.00	3.14	-1.91%
MGR	1.765	6,468,616,767	0.0406	2.30%	0.0870	4.93%	43.47	1.62	-8.95%
SCP	1.625	1,054,021,020	0.1220	7.51%	0.1080	6.65%	13.32	1.57	-3.50%
SGP	3.860	8,900,197,883	0.0470	1.22%	0.2400	6.22%	82.13	3.50	-10.29%
WDC	10.270	21,705,663,630	0.6424	6.26%	0.5025	4.89%	15.99	6.99	-46.92%
WRT	3.110	9,084,290,202	0.2670	8.59%	0.1942	6.24%	11.65	3.47	10.37%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		21-Feb-14	28-Feb-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.330	2.310	-0.020	-0.86%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.850	3.910	0.060	1.56%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.060	2.080	0.020	0.97%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.390	2.380	-0.010	-0.42%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.520	2.540	0.020	0.79%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.990	1.970	-0.020	-1.01%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.050	4.020	-0.030	-0.74%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.640	3.600	-0.040	-1.10%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.255	1.250	-0.005	-0.40%
Cromwell	CMW	0.995	0.990	-0.005	-0.50%
Dexus	DXS	1.075	1.070	-0.005	-0.47%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.450	2.390	-0.060	-2.45%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.850	4.800	-0.050	-1.03%
GPT Group	GPT	3.700	3.720	0.020	0.54%
Investa Office	IOF	3.160	3.200	0.040	1.27%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.765	1.765	0.000	0.00%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.600	1.625	0.025	1.56%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.950	3.860	-0.090	-2.28%
Westfield	WDC	10.530	10.270	-0.260	-2.47%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.140	3.110	-0.030	-0.96%

On the face of it, it wasn't a good week, particularly for those that buy and hold. However the interday action provided opportunities across the sector for the brave and/or insane looking for upward gains of 1-2% and likely the cfd traders looking for recurring falls of 1-2%.

For those interested I have included a comparison of the closing prices for 28 February 2014 versus closing prices for 31 January 2014:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		31-Jan-14	28-Feb-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.240	2.310	0.070	3.12%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.880	3.910	0.030	0.77%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.130	2.080	-0.050	-2.35%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.220	2.380	0.160	7.21%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.500	2.540	0.040	1.60%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.940	1.970	0.030	1.55%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.710	4.020	0.310	8.36%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.580	3.600	0.020	0.56%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.230	1.250	0.020	1.63%
Cromwell	CMW	0.955	0.990	0.035	3.66%
Dexus	DXS	0.995	1.070	0.075	7.54%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.270	2.390	0.120	5.29%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.670	4.800	0.130	2.78%
GPT Group	GPT	3.610	3.720	0.110	3.05%
Investa Office	IOF	3.100	3.200	0.100	3.23%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.670	1.765	0.095	5.69%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.485	1.625	0.140	9.43%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.630	3.860	0.230	6.34%
Westfield	WDC	10.200	10.270	0.070	0.69%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.020	3.110	0.090	2.98%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 07 March 2014

Volatility continued in the A-REIT Sector this last week with the sector moving erratically sideways. The recent upwards surge lost momentum as the local and international news continued to impact market confidence. The argy-bargy between Russia and the rest of the world continues and the markets, particularly the European ones, are very nervous. All because Russia wants to maintain control over access to the Black Sea.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 07 March 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.380	1,178,053,321	0.1368	5.75%	0.1650	6.93%	17.40	2.32	-2.59%
ALZ	3.960	2,290,165,693	0.3120	7.88%	0.2150	5.43%	12.69	3.57	-10.92%
AOG	2.090	1,045,232,951	0.0087	0.42%	0.0087	0.42%	240.23	3.53	40.79%
BWP	2.390	1,498,926,546	0.2078	8.69%	0.1405	5.88%	11.50	1.93	-23.83%
CDI	2.600	556,662,634	0.1890	7.27%	0.1780	6.85%	13.76	2.74	5.11%
CFX	1.970	5,630,824,779	0.1044	5.30%	0.1360	6.90%	18.87	2.04	3.43%
CHC	4.070	1,257,907,456	0.1829	4.49%	0.2020	4.96%	22.25	2.13	-91.08%
CQR	3.620	1,237,474,846	0.1624	4.49%	0.2680	7.40%	22.29	3.32	-9.04%
CPA	1.260	2,957,224,300	0.0619	4.91%	0.0655	5.20%	20.36	1.15	-9.57%
CMW	1.020	1,753,540,407	0.0344	3.37%	0.0730	7.16%	29.65	0.70	-45.71%
DXS	1.080	4,998,486,700	0.1091	10.10%	0.0600	5.56%	9.90	1.05	-2.86%
FDC	2.410	3,440,616,172	0.1479	6.14%	0.1410	5.85%	16.29	2.22	-8.56%
GMG	4.800	8,249,965,483	0.0963	2.01%	0.1940	4.04%	49.84	2.69	-78.44%
GPT	3.720	6,304,985,733	0.3345	8.99%	0.1980	5.32%	11.12	3.76	1.06%
IOF	3.190	1,958,811,391	0.1600	5.02%	0.1775	5.56%	19.94	3.14	-1.59%
MGR	1.745	6,395,317,993	0.0406	2.33%	0.0870	4.99%	42.98	1.62	-7.72%
SCP	1.680	1,089,695,578	0.1220	7.26%	0.1080	6.43%	13.77	1.57	-7.01%
SGP	3.920	9,038,542,928	0.0470	1.20%	0.2400	6.12%	83.40	3.50	-12.00%
WDC	10.370	21,917,013,811	0.6424	6.19%	0.5025	4.85%	16.14	6.99	-48.35%
WRT	3.080	8,996,660,393	0.2670	8.67%	0.1942	6.31%	11.54	3.47	11.24%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		28-Feb-14	7-Mar-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.310	2.380	0.070	3.03%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.910	3.960	0.050	1.28%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.080	2.090	0.010	0.48%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.380	2.390	0.010	0.42%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.540	2.600	0.060	2.36%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.970	1.970	0.000	0.00%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.020	4.070	0.050	1.24%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.600	3.620	0.020	0.56%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.250	1.260	0.010	0.80%
Cromwell	CMW	0.990	1.020	0.030	3.03%
Dexus	DXS	1.070	1.080	0.010	0.93%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.390	2.410	0.020	0.84%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.800	4.800	0.000	0.00%
GPT Group	GPT	3.720	3.720	0.000	0.00%
Investa Office	IOF	3.200	3.190	-0.010	-0.31%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.765	1.745	-0.020	-1.13%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.625	1.680	0.055	3.38%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.860	3.920	0.060	1.55%
Westfield	WDC	10.270	10.370	0.100	0.97%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.110	3.080	-0.030	-0.96%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 14 March 2014

Last week the All Ords dropped around 2%. The situation in the Crimean Peninsula is intensifying with Russia thumbing its' nose at the rest of the World and the US is making a lot of huffing and puffing sounds that pretty much amounts to nothing. However the market reaction is once again to sell off stocks and move to safer assets. The sell down in Australia was intensified with the drop in the Chinese Economic performance figures for February. Iron ore prices took a big hit and the mining companies were sold off enmass (there was a good opportunity for a rebound trade on FMG if you were quick).

The market reaction to the Chinese figures was a joke. February figures were expected to be down due to the national holidays for Chinese New Year. No doubt there will be a resurgence in March when the Chinese economy plays catch up.

The A-REIT Sector also fell this week however the fall was less than that of the All Ords possibly because some see this sector as a little safer, underpinned by yields, and buyers moved in to snap up some of the lower prices on offer. The trend for the past three weeks is not looking good, however the day to day volatility continues to provide quick trade opportunities with some degree of risk .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 14 March 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.320	1,148,354,498	0.1368	5.90%	0.1650	7.11%	16.96	2.32	0.00%
ALZ	3.870	2,238,116,473	0.3120	8.06%	0.2150	5.56%	12.40	3.57	-8.40%
AOG	1.950	975,217,347	0.0087	0.45%	0.0087	0.45%	224.14	3.53	44.76%
BWP	2.310	1,448,753,273	0.2078	9.00%	0.1405	6.08%	11.12	1.93	-19.69%
CDI	2.580	552,380,614	0.1890	7.33%	0.1780	6.90%	13.65	2.74	5.84%
CFX	1.960	5,602,241,912	0.1044	5.33%	0.1360	6.94%	18.77	2.04	3.92%
CHC	4.090	1,264,088,819	0.1829	4.47%	0.2020	4.94%	22.36	2.13	-92.02%
CQR	3.600	1,230,637,968	0.1624	4.51%	0.2680	7.44%	22.17	3.32	-8.43%
CPA	1.245	2,922,019,249	0.0619	4.97%	0.0655	5.26%	20.11	1.15	-8.26%
CMW	0.995	1,710,561,476	0.0344	3.46%	0.0730	7.34%	28.92	0.70	-42.14%
DXS	1.050	4,859,639,847	0.1091	10.39%	0.0600	5.71%	9.62	1.05	0.00%
FDC	2.330	3,326,404,846	0.1479	6.35%	0.1410	6.05%	15.75	2.22	-4.95%
GMG	4.620	7,940,591,778	0.0963	2.08%	0.1940	4.20%	47.98	2.69	-71.75%
GPT	3.640	6,169,394,642	0.3345	9.19%	0.1980	5.44%	10.88	3.76	3.19%
IOF	3.200	1,964,951,866	0.1600	5.00%	0.1775	5.55%	20.00	3.14	-1.91%
MGR	1.725	6,322,019,220	0.0406	2.35%	0.0870	5.04%	42.49	1.62	-6.48%
SCP	1.640	1,063,750,445	0.1220	7.44%	0.1080	6.59%	13.44	1.57	-4.46%
SGP	3.840	8,854,082,868	0.0470	1.22%	0.2400	6.25%	81.70	3.50	-9.71%
WDC	10.230	21,621,123,557	0.6424	6.28%	0.5025	4.91%	15.92	6.99	-46.35%
WRT	3.020	8,821,400,775	0.2670	8.84%	0.1942	6.43%	11.31	3.47	12.97%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows. Charter Hall and Investa Office were the only two A-REIT's on the list to finish the week ahead.

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		7-Mar-14	14-Mar-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.380	2.320	-0.060	-2.52%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.960	3.870	-0.090	-2.27%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.090	1.950	-0.140	-6.70%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.390	2.310	-0.080	-3.35%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.600	2.580	-0.020	-0.77%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.970	1.960	-0.010	-0.51%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.070	4.090	0.020	0.49%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.620	3.600	-0.020	-0.55%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.260	1.245	-0.015	-1.19%
Cromwell	CMW	1.020	0.995	-0.025	-2.45%
Dexus	DXS	1.080	1.050	-0.030	-2.78%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.410	2.330	-0.080	-3.32%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.800	4.620	-0.180	-3.75%
GPT Group	GPT	3.720	3.640	-0.080	-2.15%
Investa Office	IOF	3.190	3.200	0.010	0.31%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.745	1.725	-0.020	-1.15%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.680	1.640	-0.040	-2.38%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.920	3.840	-0.080	-2.04%
Westfield	WDC	10.370	10.230	-0.140	-1.35%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.080	3.020	-0.060	-1.95%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 21 March 2014

Crimea has voted in a dodgy referendum to join Russia. Even though their choices did not include staying with the Ukraine, there was an 86% turnout of which 97% are alleged to have voted to join Russia (sounds a bit like the 100% turnout with 100% voting for Kim in North Korea). At any-rate the world markets appeared to lose interest and instead focused on what is happening in China and the first report from Janet Yellen to the US Congress on the state of the US Economy. Instant market falls followed by gradual recovery as the market calms down in respect of something that may or may not happen in 2015. We are compiling a diary of future "reporting" dates so we can better trade these wild oscillations.

The A-REIT Sector was a mixed bag this week, some up some down. The volatility during the week across the sector saw us exiting some trades at our exit point, only to re-enter the same share at the original entry price late in the day as the shares dropped significantly. Good volumes on Thursday/Friday as determined sellers were matched by keen buyers, particularly in the closing auctions.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 21 March 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.370	1,173,103,517	0.1368	5.77%	0.1650	6.96%	17.32	2.32	-2.16%
ALZ	4.130	2,388,480,887	0.3120	7.55%	0.2150	5.21%	13.24	3.57	-15.69%
AOG	2.060	1,030,229,608	0.0087	0.42%	0.0087	0.42%	236.78	3.53	41.64%
BWP	2.290	1,436,209,955	0.2078	9.07%	0.1405	6.14%	11.02	1.93	-18.65%
CDI	2.550	545,957,583	0.1890	7.41%	0.1780	6.98%	13.49	2.74	6.93%
CFX	1.955	5,587,950,479	0.1044	5.34%	0.1360	6.96%	18.73	2.04	4.17%
CHC	3.930	1,214,637,912	0.1829	4.65%	0.2020	5.14%	21.49	2.13	-84.51%
CQR	3.570	1,220,382,652	0.1624	4.55%	0.2680	7.51%	21.98	3.32	-7.53%
CPA	1.245	2,922,019,249	0.0619	4.97%	0.0655	5.26%	20.11	1.15	-8.26%
CMW	0.965	1,658,986,758	0.0344	3.56%	0.0730	7.56%	28.05	0.70	-37.86%
DXS	1.025	4,743,934,137	0.1091	10.64%	0.0600	5.85%	9.40	1.05	2.38%
FDC	2.360	3,369,234,093	0.1479	6.27%	0.1410	5.97%	15.96	2.22	-6.31%
GMG	4.690	8,060,903,774	0.0963	2.05%	0.1940	4.14%	48.70	2.69	-74.35%
GPT	3.710	6,288,036,847	0.3345	9.02%	0.1980	5.34%	11.09	3.76	1.33%
IOF	3.220	1,977,232,815	0.1600	4.97%	0.1775	5.51%	20.13	3.14	-2.55%
MGR	1.715	6,285,369,833	0.0406	2.37%	0.0870	5.07%	42.24	1.62	-5.86%
SCP	1.615	1,047,534,737	0.1220	7.55%	0.1080	6.69%	13.24	1.57	-2.87%
SGP	3.720	8,577,392,779	0.0470	1.26%	0.2400	6.45%	79.15	3.50	-6.29%
WDC	10.290	21,747,933,666	0.6424	6.24%	0.5025	4.88%	16.02	6.99	-47.21%
WRT	3.050	8,909,030,584	0.2670	8.75%	0.1942	6.37%	11.42	3.47	12.10%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows. Australand rose the most this week after Stockland grabbed a 19.5% stake and Charter Hall took the biggest dip:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		14-Mar-14	21-Mar-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.320	2.370	0.050	2.16%
Australand Property	ALZ	3.870	4.130	0.260	6.72%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	1.950	2.060	0.110	5.64%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.310	2.290	-0.020	-0.87%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.580	2.550	-0.030	-1.16%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.960	1.955	-0.005	-0.26%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.090	3.930	-0.160	-3.91%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.600	3.570	-0.030	-0.83%
Commonwealth_Office	CPA	1.245	1.245	0.000	0.00%
Cromwell	CMW	0.995	0.965	-0.030	-3.02%
Dexus	DXS	1.050	1.025	-0.025	-2.38%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.330	2.360	0.030	1.29%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.620	4.690	0.070	1.52%
GPT Group	GPT	3.640	3.710	0.070	1.92%
Investa Office	IOF	3.200	3.220	0.020	0.63%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.725	1.715	-0.010	-0.58%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.640	1.615	-0.025	-1.52%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.840	3.720	-0.120	-3.12%
Westfield	WDC	10.230	10.290	0.060	0.59%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.020	3.050	0.030	0.99%

Comments:

1. The figures for AOG (formerly FKP) have been updated to reflect the new shares issued.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

3. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

4. This is the last week for the inclusion of Commonwealth Offices Trust (CPA) in this list. CPA haven been acquired by Dexus (with $1.2 billion of CPA assets to be sold to GPT).

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 28 March 2014

The All Ords managed to finish higher for the week, however the A-REIT Sector continued it's down hill run. The recent highs had been getting higher and the lows had also been getting higher however the two year chart shows that the sector has broken out downwards through the recent upward support line. If it doesn't rebound from here the next support levels are 987, 980 and 960. If it doesn't hold there then there is a real risk of the A_REIT sector testing the November 2012 levels of 945.

It is possible that Glen Stevens recent jawboning of the Australian Economy is pushing up the Aud$ giving foreign investors an opportunity to exit A-REIT's at a better combo of Aud$ & Share price value. Curiously there is a move afoot at the moment to encourage Japanese investors to consider investing in the Australian Share Market. Once again many of the A-REIT's are at relatively low prices with good yields and improved prospects (over previous years) of further gains in our improving economy. Bargains for the long term investor you might think, then again........



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 28 March 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.330	1,153,304,302	0.1368	5.87%	0.1650	7.08%	17.03	2.32	-0.43%
ALZ	4.250	2,457,879,848	0.3120	7.34%	0.2150	5.06%	13.62	3.57	-19.05%
AOG	1.995	997,722,363	0.0087	0.44%	0.0087	0.44%	229.31	3.53	43.48%
BWP	2.290	1,436,209,955	0.2078	9.07%	0.1405	6.14%	11.02	1.93	-18.65%
CDI	2.570	550,239,603	0.1890	7.35%	0.1780	6.93%	13.60	2.74	6.20%
CFX	1.880	5,373,578,977	0.1044	5.55%	0.1360	7.23%	18.01	2.04	7.84%
CHC	3.920	1,211,547,230	0.1829	4.67%	0.2020	5.15%	21.43	2.13	-84.04%
CQR	3.560	1,216,964,213	0.1624	4.56%	0.2680	7.53%	21.92	3.32	-7.23%
CMW	0.955	1,641,795,185	0.0344	3.60%	0.0730	7.64%	27.76	0.70	-36.43%
DXS	1.055	4,882,780,989	0.1091	10.34%	0.0600	5.69%	9.67	1.05	-0.48%
FDC	2.330	3,326,404,846	0.1479	6.35%	0.1410	6.05%	15.75	2.22	-4.95%
GMG	4.720	8,112,466,058	0.0963	2.04%	0.1940	4.11%	49.01	2.69	-75.46%
GPT	3.630	6,152,445,756	0.3345	9.21%	0.1980	5.45%	10.85	3.76	3.46%
IOF	3.210	1,971,092,340	0.1600	4.98%	0.1775	5.53%	20.06	3.14	-2.23%
MGR	1.670	6,120,447,592	0.0406	2.43%	0.0870	5.21%	41.13	1.62	-3.09%
SCP	1.630	1,057,264,162	0.1220	7.48%	0.1080	6.63%	13.36	1.57	-3.82%
SGP	3.700	8,531,277,764	0.0470	1.27%	0.2400	6.49%	78.72	3.50	-5.71%
WDC	10.280	21,726,798,648	0.6424	6.25%	0.5025	4.89%	16.00	6.99	-47.07%
WRT	2.970	8,675,351,093	0.2670	8.99%	0.1942	6.54%	11.12	3.47	14.41%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		21-Mar-14	28-Mar-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.370	2.330	-0.040	-1.69%
Australand_Property	ALZ	4.130	4.250	0.120	2.91%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.060	1.995	-0.065	-3.16%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.290	2.290	0.000	0.00%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.550	2.570	0.020	0.78%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.955	1.880	-0.075	-3.84%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.930	3.920	-0.010	-0.25%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.570	3.560	-0.010	-0.28%
Cromwell	CMW	0.965	0.955	-0.010	-1.04%
Dexus	DXS	1.025	1.055	0.030	2.93%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.360	2.330	-0.030	-1.27%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.690	4.720	0.030	0.64%
GPT Group	GPT	3.710	3.630	-0.080	-2.16%
Investa Office	IOF	3.220	3.210	-0.010	-0.31%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.715	1.670	-0.045	-2.62%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.615	1.630	0.015	0.93%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.720	3.700	-0.020	-0.54%
Westfield	WDC	10.290	10.280	-0.010	-0.10%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.050	2.970	-0.080	-2.62%

Comments:

1. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.


2. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

3. CPA has been deleted from the lists. CPA haven been acquired by Dexus (with $1.2 billion of CPA assets to be sold to GPT).

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table, particularly those based on issued shares (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[samgribbles]

Hi Nulla Nulla,

Great thread you are maintaining, thanks.

I am struggling to find a way to trade the XPJ index. Do you know of a CFD provider, or futures provider, that can do this for a retail trader? (I am aware of the small ETF that seeks to track the XPJ, but it is too illiquid with too great a spread)

Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

Hi Nulla Nulla,

Great thread you are maintaining, thanks.

I am struggling to find a way to trade the XPJ index. Do you know of a CFD provider, or futures provider, that can do this for a retail trader? (I am aware of the small ETF that seeks to track the XPJ, but it is too illiquid with too great a spread)

Cheers

Sorry Sam, I have no idea how you could trade the index xpj. My trading is mostly in individual A-REIT shares. I don't even try CFD's. Some of the others that trade indexes may be able to help?

 

[samgribbles]

Thanks. I am looking at getting back in to trading LPTs. I used to trade them often, scalping the volatility and capturing a 2-3% move in a few to several days, which nets out at around 5-7% if using a margin loan. Is this the type of trades that you do on them?

I was interested in trading the XPJ so that I could hedge the trade against the index. Looks like need a futures account with a full service broker, can’t find a CFD provider.

Interested to hear your trading approach on the LPTs

Cheers

 

[coolcup]

Thanks. I am looking at getting back in to trading LPTs. I used to trade them often, scalping the volatility and capturing a 2-3% move in a few to several days, which nets out at around 5-7% if using a margin loan. Is this the type of trades that you do on them?

I was interested in trading the XPJ so that I could hedge the trade against the index. Looks like need a futures account with a full service broker, can’t find a CFD provider.

Interested to hear your trading approach on the LPTs

Cheers

WDC and WRT together represent over 50% of the index. If you trade them both you are basically replicating the index performance.

 

[nulla nulla]

While the above list does not include all the shares in the Property Sector it does include most of the major companies in this sector. The following list shows the companies sorted by their weighting within the list:

Share	Code	Closing Price	Issued Shares	Capital	Weighting
Westfield	WDC	10.280	2,113,501,814	21,726,798,648	25.09%
Westfield Retail	WRT	2.970	2,920,993,634	8,675,351,093	10.02%
Stockland_Property	SGP	3.700	2,305,750,747	8,531,277,764	9.85%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.720	1,718,742,809	8,112,466,058	9.37%
GPT Group	GPT	3.630	1,694,888,638	6,152,445,756	7.10%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.670	3,664,938,678	6,120,447,592	7.07%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.880	2,858,286,690	5,373,578,977	6.21%
Dexus	DXS	1.055	4,628,228,426	4,882,780,989	5.64%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.330	1,427,641,565	3,326,404,846	3.84%
Australand_Property	ALZ	4.250	578,324,670	2,457,879,848	2.84%
Investa Office	IOF	3.210	614,047,458	1,971,092,340	2.28%
Cromwell	CMW	0.955	1,719,157,262	1,641,795,185	1.90%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.290	627,165,919	1,436,209,955	1.66%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.560	341,843,880	1,216,964,213	1.41%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.920	309,068,171	1,211,547,230	1.40%
Abacus Property	ABP	2.330	494,980,387	1,153,304,302	1.33%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.630	648,628,320	1,057,264,162	1.22%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	1.995	500,111,460	997,722,363	1.15%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.570	214,101,013	550,239,603	0.64%
				86,595,570,925	100.00%

As Coolcup points out, WDC and WRT are the two largest companies in the sector representing approximately 35% of the total value of the shares in the list. Combined, these two shares can determine how the sector is seen to be tracking. However this is often misrepresents the sector as these two shares can be having an "off day/week/month" while other shares are going gangbusters. With the proposed restructure of WDC/WRT on the table, ATM both shares are trading at relatively low points. There is an air of uncertainty over the market for these two share as many fund managers are looking for a sweetener for WRT in the proposed restructure.

It is probably not appropriate to give specifics of our trades. I would not want anyone to try and emulate them. At times the exposure can be unnerving (with large draw downs) as we wait for a "bounce" in order to close out our trades. Additionally some times we enter a trade looking for a combination of capital gains and a distribution. I do not want to be responsible in any way shape or format for anyone losing money.

I note your advice that you have traded LPT's before, in and out for 1-2%, this is pretty much what we do. We stick to the shares that have good liquidity and regularly oscillate 5+ cents. Monitoring the patterns, looking for lower risk entry points and exiting as soon as our target is hit. I'm fairly sure that others in this forum are even more proficient in trading this sector, using CFD's to short A-REIT's when they feel they have peaked (as well as buying when the share prices hit their lows).

As always, do your own research and good luck.

P.S. The share prices are those for last Friday.

 

[samgribbles]

Thanks for the replies guys, much appreciated.

I've been around the block enough times, and got enough battle scars, to not blindly follow another trader's trades; I was curious "professionally" as to your approach. And who is "we"? Do you run an advice service on the side or some kind of trading group, Nulla Nulla?

Got the toes in the water with a long CMW at support, with a risk offset via a short IOF at resistance. Based purely on charts, and a quick scan of broker recommendations and targets. I usually would only trade when the chart signal aligns with fundamentals, but expect this will take me some time to fully understand each stock, so only small exposure on this one.

 

[nulla nulla]

Thanks for the replies guys, much appreciated.

I've been around the block enough times, and got enough battle scars, to not blindly follow another trader's trades; I was curious "professionally" as to your approach. And who is "we"? Do you run an advice service on the side or some kind of trading group, Nulla Nulla?.

The Missus is the better half of "we".

Got the toes in the water with a long CMW at support, with a risk offset via a short IOF at resistance. Based purely on charts, and a quick scan of broker recommendations and targets. I usually would only trade when the chart signal aligns with fundamentals, but expect this will take me some time to fully understand each stock, so only small exposure on this one.

What was your support point for CMW, resistance for IOF?

Best wishes and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 04 April 2014

The A-REIT Sector actually climbed this week in the shadow of the All Ord's. The support line appears to have held for now. It would not surprise me to see the sector continue to move sideways and slightly upwards between now and June in the lead up to the next distribution period.

The potential for volatility still remains with all the international factors and Glen Stevens jawboning however the underlying message is that the economy is improving. The main risk to the A-REIT Sector is further improvements in the Aud$ against the US$ may be too tempting for foreign investors looking to exit their Australian investments.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for week ending 04 April 2014 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ABP	2.330	1,153,304,302	0.1368	5.87%	0.1650	7.08%	17.03	2.32	-0.43%
ALZ	4.170	2,411,613,874	0.3120	7.48%	0.2150	5.16%	13.37	3.57	-16.81%
AOG	2.030	1,015,226,264	0.0087	0.43%	0.0087	0.43%	233.33	3.53	42.49%
BWP	2.310	1,448,753,273	0.2078	9.00%	0.1405	6.08%	11.12	1.93	-19.69%
CDI	2.590	554,521,624	0.1890	7.30%	0.1780	6.87%	13.70	2.74	5.47%
CFX	1.930	5,824,838,063	0.1044	5.41%	0.1360	7.05%	18.49	2.02	4.46%
CHC	4.010	1,239,363,366	0.1829	4.56%	0.2020	5.04%	21.92	2.13	-88.26%
CQR	3.620	1,237,474,846	0.1624	4.49%	0.2680	7.40%	22.29	3.32	-9.04%
CMW	0.960	1,650,390,972	0.0344	3.58%	0.0730	7.60%	27.91	0.70	-37.14%
DXS	1.050	5,648,464,315	0.1091	10.39%	0.0600	5.71%	9.62	1.05	0.00%
FDC	2.350	3,354,957,678	0.1479	6.29%	0.1410	6.00%	15.89	2.22	-5.86%
GMG	4.700	8,078,091,202	0.0963	2.05%	0.1940	4.13%	48.81	2.69	-74.72%
GPT	3.670	6,220,241,301	0.3345	9.11%	0.1980	5.40%	10.97	3.76	2.39%
IOF	3.210	1,971,092,340	0.1600	4.98%	0.1775	5.53%	20.06	3.14	-2.23%
MGR	1.700	6,230,395,753	0.0406	2.39%	0.0870	5.12%	41.87	1.62	-4.94%
SCP	1.650	1,070,236,728	0.1220	7.39%	0.1080	6.55%	13.52	1.57	-5.10%
SGP	3.700	8,531,277,764	0.0470	1.27%	0.2400	6.49%	78.72	3.50	-5.71%
WDC	10.420	22,022,688,902	0.6424	6.17%	0.5025	4.82%	16.22	6.99	-49.07%
WRT	3.040	8,879,820,647	0.2670	8.78%	0.1942	6.39%	11.39	3.47	12.39%

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		28-Mar-14	4-Apr-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.330	2.330	0.000	0.00%
Australand_Property	ALZ	4.250	4.170	-0.080	-1.88%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	1.995	2.030	0.035	1.75%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.290	2.310	0.020	0.87%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.570	2.590	0.020	0.78%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.880	1.930	0.050	2.66%
Charter Hall	CHC	3.920	4.010	0.090	2.30%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.560	3.620	0.060	1.69%
Cromwell	CMW	0.955	0.960	0.005	0.52%
Dexus	DXS	1.055	1.050	-0.005	-0.47%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.330	2.350	0.020	0.86%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.720	4.700	-0.020	-0.42%
GPT Group	GPT	3.630	3.670	0.040	1.10%
Investa Office	IOF	3.210	3.210	0.000	0.00%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.670	1.700	0.030	1.80%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.630	1.650	0.020	1.23%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.700	3.700	0.000	0.00%
Westfield	WDC	10.280	10.420	0.140	1.36%
Westfield Retail	WRT	2.970	3.040	0.070	2.36%

For those interested I am including the table to reflect the share price changes from 28 February to 28 March:

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	$_Change	%_Change
		28-Feb-14	28-Mar-14
Abacus Property	ABP	2.310	2.330	0.020	0.87%
Australand_Property	ALZ	3.910	4.250	0.340	8.70%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.080	1.995	-0.085	-4.09%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.380	2.290	-0.090	-3.78%
Challenger Div	CDI	2.540	2.570	0.030	1.18%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	1.970	1.880	-0.090	-4.57%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.020	3.920	-0.100	-2.49%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.600	3.560	-0.040	-1.11%
Cromwell	CMW	0.990	0.955	-0.035	-3.54%
Dexus	DXS	1.070	1.055	-0.015	-1.40%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.390	2.330	-0.060	-2.51%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.800	4.720	-0.080	-1.67%
GPT Group	GPT	3.720	3.630	-0.090	-2.42%
Investa Office	IOF	3.200	3.210	0.010	0.31%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.765	1.670	-0.095	-5.38%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.625	1.630	0.005	0.31%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.860	3.700	-0.160	-4.15%
Westfield	WDC	10.270	10.280	0.010	0.10%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.110	2.970	-0.140	-4.50%

Because of the recent interest shown in the weighting of various shares within the Listed Property Sector I have updated the early "Weighting Table" to reflect the changes in CFX and DXS. I will endeavor next week to update the rest of the list also.

Share	Code	Closing Price	Issued Shares	Capital	Weighting
Westfield	WDC	10.420	2,113,501,814	22,022,688,902	24.69%
Westfield Retail	WRT	3.040	2,920,993,634	8,879,820,647	9.96%
Stockland Property	SGP	3.700	2,305,750,747	8,531,277,764	9.57%
Goodman Group	GMG	4.700	1,718,742,809	8,078,091,202	9.06%
CFS Retail Trust	CFX	2.590	2,858,286,690	7,402,962,527	8.30%
Mirvac Group	MGR	1.700	3,664,938,678	6,230,395,753	6.99%
GPT Group	GPT	3.670	1,694,888,638	6,220,241,301	6.97%
Dexus	DXS	1.050	4,628,228,426	4,859,639,847	5.45%
Federation Centres	FDC	2.350	1,427,641,565	3,354,957,678	3.76%
Australand_Property	ALZ	4.170	578,324,670	2,411,613,874	2.70%
Investa Office	IOF	3.210	614,047,458	1,971,092,340	2.21%
Cromwell	CMW	0.960	1,719,157,262	1,650,390,972	1.85%
BWP Trust	BWP	2.310	627,165,919	1,448,753,273	1.62%
Charter Hall	CHC	4.010	309,068,171	1,239,363,366	1.39%
Charter Hall Retail	CQR	3.620	341,843,880	1,237,474,846	1.39%
Abacus Property	ABP	2.330	494,980,387	1,153,304,302	1.29%
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.650	648,628,320	1,070,236,728	1.20%
Aveo (FKP Stapled)	AOG	2.030	500,111,460	1,015,226,264	1.14%
Challenger Div	CDI	1.930	214,101,013	413,214,955	0.46%
				89,190,746,540	100.00%

Comments:

1. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 and updated per their release of 13 June 2013.

2. The CFX & Dexus figures have been updated in accordance with their recent restructure announcements.

3. CPA has been deleted from the lists. CPA having been acquired by Dexus (with $1.2 billion of CPA assets to be sold to GPT).

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above table is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above tables, particularly those based on Issued Shares/Capital (some of which are subject to daily changes due to active share buy-back programs), may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[samgribbles]

What was your support point for CMW, resistance for IOF?

I tend to define support and resistance as zones rather than fixed price levels. So

For CMW: trading in a range of 0.94-0.96 to 1.02-1.04

For IOF: support around 3.00-3.05 and resistance around 3.25-3.28

 

[nulla nulla]

I tend to define support and resistance as zones rather than fixed price levels. So

For CMW: trading in a range of 0.94-0.96 to 1.02-1.04

For IOF: support around 3.00-3.05 and resistance around 3.25-3.28

Good call although you might wait a long time between drinks to buy IOF at your support level based on the recent price action. IOF (in my opinion) lately is a hard act to trade. Volumes are low while the spread can be quite attractive. Sometimes the volumes make it hard to trade a decent sized share parcel.

 

[coolcup]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 04 April 2014


Because of the recent interest shown in the weighting of various shares within the Listed Property Sector I have updated the early "Weighting Table" to reflect the changes in CFX and DXS. I will endeavor next week to update the rest of the list also.

Hi Nulla Nulla

I am sure you are already across this, but the table where you have set out the weightings include stocks which are technically in the S&P ASX 200 A-REIT index (the first 17 stocks) and stocks which are not in the index but have a similar business model (eg Aveo and Challenger Diversified). The weightings also are on a total market cap basis rather than a free float basis (S&P use free float to calculate the real index weightings). The number of shares in the table for a number of the REITs also do not reflect the current shares on issue post a number of capital raisings and DRPs that those REITs have actually done.

I just thought I'd mention this as the question raised was around getting an ETF on the A-REIT index or trying to manufacture one synthetically. The weightings you have outlined won't replicate the A-REIT index due to the differences I have outlined above which I thought would be useful to point out.

Cheers