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A beginner's possible portfolio

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Stormin_Norman said:
that's very nice in theory. but my personal belief is only one type of person can consistently buy at the low spike and sell at the high spike.

a liar.
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hope that liar bit isnt directed at me Norm ??

i dont profess to be able to pick exact tops and bottoms anymore than anyone else ---- but u dont need to

yr system has a 5% stop/ buffer on the initial leg of yr entry and is looking for multiple entries to compound yes ? ---- obviously u are looking for the trend to prove itself b4 entering and ride the trend for a longer period ---- no probs with that sytem --

im happy to pick short term highs/lows --- if the ATR of the short term cycle of the said instrument is say 15 pips im happy to get 5 pips of that in the middle ground ---- staking plan and money management comes into play with my system in so much as i WILL average up/down if the high/low has still to be proven (no doubling up!!)

Stormin_Norman said:
.

if the price isnt going up, why are you buying it?

obviously im a trend follower, not a bottom predictor. :)
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1) no one knows if the price will continue up from your entry point anymore than i know it will from mine? --- in essence my entry is lower risk because i try to buy the last lowest price --

ps i dont just buy a low for the hell of it -- the momentum has to be slowing and usually an initial spike up off the low is followed by a retest of the initial low/(or high in the opposite scenario) ---

im sure u get my drift ;)
 
Cartman said:
hope that liar bit isnt directed at me Norm ??

i dont profess to be able to pick exact tops and bottoms anymore than anyone else ---- but u dont need to

im happy to pick short term highs/lows --- if the ATR of the short term cycle of the said instrument is say 15 pips im happy to get 5 pips of that in the middle ground ---- staking plan and money management comes into play with my system in so much as i WILL average up/down if the high/low has still to be proven (no doubling up!!)



1) no one knows if the price will continue up from your entry point anymore than i know it will from mine? --- in essence my entry is lower risk because i try to buy the last lowest price --

ps i dont just buy a low for the hell of it -- the momentum has to be slowing and usually an initial spike up off the low is followed by a retest of the initial low/(or high in the opposite scenario) ---

im sure u get my drift ;)
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i get your drift exactly. you do not need to buy at the bottom or sell at the top. you just need to buy a a lower price then you sell at/ sell at a high price then you buy at.

i buy on short term dips and sell on short term spikes too. in the direction of the longer term trend. ie trend is your friend.

true range = max price (high,closeprev) − min price(low,closeprev). ie price is the only true indicator.
 
Stormin_Norman said:
i get your drift exactly. you do not need to buy at the bottom or sell at the top. you just need to buy a a lower price then you sell at/ sell at a high price then you buy at.

i buy on short term dips and sell on short term spikes too. in the direction of the longer term trend. ie trend is your friend.

true range = max price (high,closeprev) − min price(low,closeprev). ie price is the only true indicator.
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no arguments there ---

i know nothing about coding and backtesting -- only forward testing which i do a lot of --

i work on a fairly short time frame and its common to get 4-5 mini cycles per hour -- interested with regard to true range when backtesting what time frame do you use to clarify maximum high/low ---- and how much does it alter your results if you widen your time frame ---- just curious cause the spike highs/lows i look for are often the max high/low (or v close to it) of both the last minute and often hour --- which is why theyre easy to pick at times
 
Cartman said:
no arguments there ---

i know nothing about coding and backtesting -- only forward testing which i do a lot of --

i work on a fairly short time frame and its common to get 4-5 mini cycles per hour -- interested with regard to true range when backtesting what time frame do you use to clarify maximum high/low ---- and how much does it alter your results if you widen your time frame ---- just curious cause the spike highs/lows i look for are often the max high/low (or v close to it) of both the last minute and often hour --- which is why theyre easy to pick at times
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i dont backtest apart from very early on in the development cycle. i have found the backtesting results are near on useless when trying to figure a profitable system.

i dont use true ranger, although i am familiar with it. i have experimented with it, but found stochastic (13,3,5) to be a better indicator of the price movement (for me). that gives me my overbought/oversold price indicator.

i only take indications which are in agreeance with the 55 and 144 simple moving average (the trend).

sometimes, if the 55 MA is slightly against the signal of the stochastic and 144 MA i will still take the trade.

the ATR and stochastic are very similar price indicators just calculated in different ways. we are both looking for similar set ups i believe.

am i correct in thinking that? you look to go in the direction of a longer term trend after a short term move against that trend?
 
Stormin_Norman said:
i dont backtest apart from very early on in the development cycle. i have found the backtesting results are near on useless when trying to figure a profitable system.

[/I]
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totally agree --- forward testing is much more useful -- mainly cause i know nothing about coding a backtest lol :rolleyes:

Stormin_Norman said:
i only take indications which are in agreeance with the 55 and 144 simple moving average (the trend).

sometimes, if the 55 MA is slightly against the signal of the stochastic and 144 MA i will still take the trade.

the ATR and stochastic are very similar price indicators just calculated in different ways. we are both looking for similar set ups i believe.

am i correct in thinking that? you look to go in the direction of a longer term trend after a short term move against that trend?
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the eur/usd has been pretty fickle lately so a long term trend might only be an hour -- plus the range from high to low can be wide on a higher time frame --- i actually prefer to trade the chop most of the time but as i say early days and still testing different systems/entries etc

stochastics and MA's pretty much the same as yrself.
 
theasxgorilla said:
Has value investing been working for you in this market? By all means please enlighten us.
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Some would argue that this type of market is perfect to start with the value investing (even yourself ;).

I think a lot of the TA people out there dont take yeild into account. If you are looking at solid strong companies (obviously you need your own criteria of this) and you can get say 5% pa yeild and hold for 10+ years you have the prospect of capital growth, plus an increasing yeild if the company is improving...
 
theasxgorilla said:
OP = Original Poster.

"trend following balony"??? Love it.

Has value investing been working for you in this market? By all means please enlighten us.
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ill wait for 'those' people to start to move the market back. when its obviously in a recovery ill join in.

if the market is going to come back, then there's a long long way for it to bounce back. i dont trust financials, projections or analysts' ratios. there's still a lot of rubbish floating around on balance sheets, a lot of creative accounting and a lot of losses yet to be announced.

the only number i trust is price. that tells you what the market thinks about something. and in the end, the market is who you want to be agreeing with.
 
Stormin_Norman said:
that's very nice in theory. but my personal belief is only one type of person can consistently buy at the low spike and sell at the high spike.

a liar.

the price is the only thing you can trust in the market. if the price isnt going up, why are you buying it?

:2twocents obviously im a trend follower, not a bottom predictor. :)
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MRC & Co said:
You can be trading with the bias of the trend and buying dips in an uptrend and selling pullbacks in a downtrend..........
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bingo.

if youre looking at a long enough time frame the current situation could be considered just that. a short term pull back over the course of 25 years.

even if that's the case, i personally would be waiting a little bit longer to see an uptrend again before jumping in.
 
Stormin_Norman said:
bingo.

if youre looking at a long enough time frame the current situation could be considered just that. a short term pull back over the course of 25 years.

even if that's the case, i personally would be waiting a little bit longer to see an uptrend again before jumping in.
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lol, well I'm actually talking about intraday (so very short-term), where you can actually see order flow.

Long-term takes into account too many fundamental factors, which makes the analysis a lot harder IMO.
 
Seems like the risk analysis is based on Market Caps;

high risk, 500M or lower

Although to me EasternStar Gas [ESG] with $0 debt, [and other financials that i wont go into] seem to be of lower risk over the longterm.
 
theasxgorilla said:
Has value investing been working for you in this market? By all means please enlighten us.
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For me it has, I haven't purchased much in the last 2 years or so, was way too overpriced for my liking and have accumulated cash instead eg my $3 WBC shares and $9 BHP shares are still way up and paying a handsome % dividend for the initial capital outlay.... I have been buying since the early 1990's, off an on since then, only ever sold in a big way once to fund a business start up. I started purchasing again in Late November and early December 2008, mundane stuff like WOW, BHP, WBC, LEI, boring to most but I am a boring, staid conservative "investor". Had to sit on the side line for several years accumulating cash waiting for the inevitable downturn, took a lot longer then I thought and is much deeper then I thought. Who knows, more downside yet probably but I am comfortable enough to start buying again, short term capital preservation is not a priority, long term accumulation is... why am I buying again ? this guy states it more eloquently then I

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.
...
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

that aside in regards the OP. Perhaps stick with a LIC (eg ARG), use value averaging to purcahse, read your heart out and ensure you can sleep at night. I don't have the wherewithal to attempt a trading strategy, best of luck to those that do.
 
Trevor_S said:
For me it has, I haven't purchased much in the last 2 years or so, was way too overpriced for my liking and have accumulated cash instead eg my $3 WBC shares and $9 BHP shares are still way up and paying a handsome % dividend for the initial capital outlay....
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Yes, by "this market" I was referring to about the last two years. What I probably meant was "these market conditions".
 
Stormin_Norman said:
that's very nice in theory. but my personal belief is only one type of person can consistently buy at the low spike and sell at the high spike.

a liar.

:2twocents obviously im a trend follower, not a bottom predictor. :)
Click to expand...

ROTFLMAO = This is a classic, well done mate, sums it up for me!
 
Stormin_Norman said:
that's very nice in theory. but my personal belief is only one type of person can consistently buy at the low spike and sell at the high spike.

a liar.
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Consistently? No. But it's possible to get enough right to offer very tradeable opportunities.

If someone tries to sell a system that does it, I'd be very skeptical, but I have no doubt there are smarter people than me using more accurate systems than mine and keeping the details very private.
 

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