95%/5%

[IFocus]

The discussion on this subject seems to suggest 5% are absolute geniuses and the 95% are absolute buffoons, How about a scale 1 to 100. I'd suggest I'm not in the 5% because I have no desire to be there. However I expect to be ahead of the 50% point and am happy with my results to date and claim to be around the 80 to 90% mark. I'm still showing a good profit so far this year. Does that count?

Nioka if you remain profitable during this market then you are easily in that 5% this market now is when traders wash through like a water fall as they get whipsawed in and out of positions.

They will be taking consistence losses with small profits. They will learn bad behaviors as a result and likely take profits early scared of getting whipsawed again missing the moves that moves the account upwards.

In the 5% there will be a section for Old D......... sorry joke just about worn out.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Swing trading is just trend trading in a shorter time frame - betting a reversal in a trend is just temporary. Thus, like trend trading, it does not provide a true edge, but relies on risk and money management to be profitable (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Thanks.

 

[tech/a]

Top 5% of wealth---Those that can do what they want when they want,support who they want and what they want to support whenever they wish and choose to work or not and can do for an indefinate period regardless of their current age.

Top 5% of property investors.---Those that recieve a passive income from property and are un affected by market swings/recession/depression and hold a portfolio greater than their house---this could be just 1 IP.

Top 5% of Traders---Those that can turn a consistent profit in any market condition over a period long enough to generate both bullish and bearish conditions.(years)

Top 5% in Business---Those that have businesses which turn a profit well above a basic wage wether they are working in the business or not for prolonged periods of time (Months) without effecting profit.That are established enough to ride out Recession/Depression/good and bad times.

Regardless of color,creed,education,religion,ability to spell,mathamatical skill,type of car they drive or wives they keep.

 

[wayneL]

Is it important to be in the top 5%?

If so, is it important to know you're in the top 5%?

If so, is it important to tell all and sundry that you're in the top 5%?

Or

Is is important to be 100% of what you can be or what you want to be, wherever you are on the scale, whatever that is, and let people think what they will?

Is comparison a thing of the ego?

 

[wayneL]

Swing trading is just trend trading in a shorter time frame - betting a reversal in a trend is just temporary. Thus, like trend trading, it does not provide a true edge, but relies on risk and money management to be profitable (not that there's anything wrong with that).

What is a true edge?

 

[tech/a]

Is it important to be in the top 5%?

To 5%

If so, is it important to know you're in the top 5%?

If you dont know then your not in the 5%

If so, is it important to tell all and sundry that you're in the top 5%?

Important no.

Or

Is is important to be 100% of what you can be or what you want to be, wherever you are on the scale, whatever that is, and let people think what they will?

To some no doubt.

Is comparison a thing of the ego?

To some no doubt.

 

[MichaelD]

Is it important to be in the top 5%?

If so, is it important to know you're in the top 5%?

If so, is it important to tell all and sundry that you're in the top 5%?

Referring specifically to trading;

Level 1 of the 95/5 fractal;

1. Yes, it's important to be in the top 5% since they are the only ones actually making money. Since no one on the surface admits to trading for anything other than the reason of making money, you must by definition strive to be in the 5%. Otherwise you might as well go to the casino and at least get enjoyment out of losing your money instead of pain.

2. You'll know you're in the top 5% since you're making money consistently.

3. It will lead to psychological trauma to yourself to tell all and sundry that you are in the top 5% as no one will want to listen to your thoughts on how to get into this 5%.


Level 2 of the fractal;

1. If making extraordinary returns is required, then yes you need to be in the top 5% of the top 5%.

2. You'll know you're in the top 5% of the top 5% since you will view the market totally differently to the other profitable traders.

3. It is anathema to tell all and sundry that you've reached this level - it would be both fatal to your psychology and your edge(s).

 

[wayneL]

To 5%



If you dont know then your not in the 5%



Important no.

Or



To some no doubt.



To some no doubt.

Tech,

For one who so preaches outside of the box thinking, those answers are remarkably inside the box.

Just my opinion.

 

[chops_a_must]

If you dont know then your not in the 5%

Or aren't arrogant enough to assign yourself such a special position.

 

[MichaelD]

What is a true edge?

A true edge is a fundamental truth about market participants and their behaviour.

 

[wayneL]

Referring specifically to trading;

Level 1 of the 95/5 fractal;

1. Yes, it's important to be in the top 5% since they are the only ones actually making money. Since no one on the surface admits to trading for anything other than the reason of making money, you must by definition strive to be in the 5%. Otherwise you might as well go to the casino and at least get enjoyment out of losing your money instead of pain.

2. You'll know you're in the top 5% since you're making money consistently.

3. It will lead to psychological trauma to yourself to tell all and sundry that you are in the top 5% as no one will want to listen to your thoughts on how to get into this 5%.


Level 2 of the fractal;

1. If making extraordinary returns is required, then yes you need to be in the top 5% of the top 5%.

2. You'll know you're in the top 5% of the top 5% since you will view the market totally differently to the other profitable traders.

3. It is anathema to tell all and sundry that you've reached this level - it would be both fatal to your psychology and your edge(s).

Thanks Michael,

Just exploring thought processes and the impact of the ego. Very interesting answers.

 

[tech/a]

Tech,

For one who so preaches outside of the box thinking, those answers are remarkably inside the box.

Just my opinion.

Were they meant to be?

Or aren't arrogant enough to assign yourself such a special position.

If your not in the 5% then yes inferring/pretending you were would be both delusional (Personal) and arrogant (as seen by others who know the truth).

 

[Bill M]

Top 5% of wealth---Those that can do what they want when they want,support who they want and what they want to support whenever they wish and choose to work or not and can do for an indefinate period regardless of their current age.

Top 5% of property investors.---Those that recieve a passive income from property and are un affected by market swings/recession/depression and hold a portfolio greater than their house---this could be just 1 IP.

Top 5% of Traders---Those that can turn a consistent profit in any market condition over a period long enough to generate both bullish and bearish conditions.(years)

Top 5% in Business---Those that have businesses which turn a profit well above a basic wage wether they are working in the business or not for prolonged periods of time (Months) without effecting profit.That are established enough to ride out Recession/Depression/good and bad times.

Regardless of color,creed,education,religion,ability to spell,mathamatical skill,type of car they drive or wives they keep.

What about this for me?

Top 5% Sharemarket Investors---Those that receive a passive income from investing in shares and are unaffected by market swings/recession/depression and hold a portfolio greater than their house---this could be just half a dozen blue chip stocks?

 

[wayneL]

More Lao Tsu, FWIW:

By retaining his humility,
the talented person who is also wise,
reduces rivalry.

The person who possesses many things,
but does not boast of his possessions,
reduces temptation, and reduces stealing.

Those who are jealous of the skills or things
possessed by others,
most easily themselves become possessed by envy.

Satisfied with his possessions,
the sage eliminates the need to steal;
at one with The Way,
he remains free of envy,
and has no need of titles.

By being mentall ysupple, he retains his energy.
He minimizes his desires,
and does not train himself in guile,
nor subtle words of praise.
By not contriving, he retains
the harmony of his inner world,
and so remains at peace within himself.

It is for reasons such as these,
that an administration
which is concerned with the welfare of those it serves,
does not encourage status
and titles to be sought,
nor encourage rivalry.

Ensuring a sufficiency for all,
helps in reducing discontent.

Administrators who are wise
do not seek honours for themselves,
nor act with arrogance towards the ones they serve.

 

[chops_a_must]

If your not in the 5% then yes inferring/pretending you were would be both delusional (Personal) and arrogant (as seen by others who know the truth).

It's not just that though.

How on Earth can people say that they are definitively in the top 5% when it comes to trading? It's not like there is a giant ladder with finals every season to decide ranking and seedings.

And does this 5% mean for your age? For your progress and development when it comes to trading? For your type of trading? Does it mean that if you are at 94.9% in the rankings you suddenly become unprofitable, unsuccessful and go broke?

No-one can answer these things. They are incalculable. And to say, "look at me, I'm in the top 5%" is laughable.

I don't think I would be in the top 5% in trading. Definitely not, probably. But for my age? Perhaps. Who knows? Especially when most people my age have not been trading for long enough to even know what they are doing. And does that make me unsuccessful? By going on what has been said in this thread, the answer would have to be yes.

But do people my age have potential to be in that 5%? Yep. Do I? Yep. Will I know if I'm ever in that 5%? Nup. Will I proclaim it to the world if by some measure I get there? Nup. I'll leave it at other people making a judgment on that.

And why this need for validation from other people saying, "yep, you're in the 5%"?

If you are meeting your own goals and always striving to do better, is there anything else that needs to be done?

And FWIW, I would never consider someone trading the same mechanical system, or same system for that matter, year in, year out, never changing it, to be in the top 5%. That's complacency and certainly not a top 5% trait in ANY field.

Cheers.

 

[2020hindsight]

well If we want to be pedantic....
If the claim is that 5% of people will make money out of trading, and 95% will not.
Then..

whoever said that will be wrong in a bull market, because many more than 5%will win

and will also be wrong in a (severe and sudden) bear market.

but sure - 1% of the time they might be right.
Then again that depends which period of time they are talking about.
- big deal.

 

[tech/a]

It's not just that though.

How on Earth can people say that they are definitively in the top 5% when it comes to trading? It's not like there is a giant ladder with finals every season to decide ranking and seedings.

A surgeon knows he is a successful surgeon,so does a baker,so does a mechanic,so does a consistently profitable trader.

And does this 5% mean for your age? For your progress and development when it comes to trading? For your type of trading? Does it mean that if you are at 94.9% in the rankings you suddenly become unprofitable, unsuccessful and go broke?

Consistently profitable for 1 yr ,5yrs, go broke then your not in the top 5% were but not anymore goes for all areas---in my not so humble opinion.

No-one can answer these things. They are incalculable. And to say, "look at me, I'm in the top 5%" is laughable.

No they are quantifyable.

I don't think I would be in the top 5% in trading. Definitely not, probably. But for my age? Perhaps. Who knows? Especially when most people my age have not been trading for long enough to even know what they are doing. And does that make me unsuccessful? By going on what has been said in this thread, the answer would have to be yes.

But do people my age have potential to be in that 5%? Yep. Do I? Yep. Will I know if I'm ever in that 5%? Nup. Will I proclaim it to the world if by some measure I get there? Nup. I'll leave it at other people making a judgment on that.

And why this need for validation from other people saying, "yep, you're in the 5%"?

You'll know.
Who's looking for validation?

If you are meeting your own goals and always striving to do better, is there anything else that needs to be done?

Not if YOU dont think so.

And FWIW, I would never consider someone trading the same mechanical system, or same system for that matter, year in, year out, never changing it, to be in the top 5%. That's complacency and certainly not a top 5% trait in ANY field.

Hmm wonder if youd like your pilot on your next flight to alter what he's been doing for the last successful 500 flights?

Personally how its done is of no consequence to me in ANY field.

Top 5% Sharemarket Investors---Those that receive a passive income from investing in shares and are unaffected by market swings/recession/depression and hold a portfolio greater than their house---this could be just half a dozen blue chip stocks?

Bill Id have to agree IF

Capital value of Bluechips invested doesnt fall below the initial capital purchase. Hardly successful to have $2 million worth of Blue chips on start up generating a passive income then 2 yrs later still generating a passive income from $1.8 million worth of shares if liquidated.

Hindsite
Consistently profitable is a far cry from a win here and a win there.
You could have amazing success in a bull market not trade at all in a Bear market and still be spectacularly profitable and in the 5% in my book after 30 yrs.

 

[chops_a_must]

No they are quantifyable.

Tell me to the exact point then if they are "quantifiable".

 

[prawn_86]

Tech,

Could you please explain how it is quantifiable for one to measure themselves to be exactly in the top 5%?

As i said way back on the first page, i would love to see some real evidence of these figures. 95/5 and 80/20 just seem a bit too 'marketable' to me.

I tend to agree with Chops that it is actually impossible to be 100% certain if you are in the top 5% in the world/country. In anything, not just trading.

You can know your good/profitable/better than the majority, but how do you know exactly whhat % you are better than?

There is always someone out there better than you...

 

[wayneL]

A surgeon knows he is a successful surgeon,so does a baker,so does a mechanic,so does a consistently profitable trader.

That's not the same as quantifying themselves in a top x%.

The confident have no need to validate themselves by assigning themselves some BS incalculable rank. To do so smacks of insecurity.