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>$50 Oil anyone?

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http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5housrFs-9ventOTJ-7ljHA9m8SIQD91JTOR00

Interesting read. According to the data, provided in this article, Saudia arabia will be oil free in 48 years, if it will output its oil at 15Million barrels per day. Pretty scary...


Well, if I am holding something of value, I will like to sell it at the highiest price possible. Maybe it is a saudia's (OPEC) new trick to sell their oil at a premium rate, not supply and demand, or speculation BS!

Interesting times ahead. I think after this people will start searching for oil in the other unexplored terrority: International waters...
 
mayk said:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5housrFs-9ventOTJ-7ljHA9m8SIQD91JTOR00

Interesting read. According to the data, provided in this article, Saudia arabia will be oil free in 48 years, if it will output its oil at 15Million barrels per day. Pretty scary...


Well, if I am holding something of value, I will like to sell it at the highiest price possible. Maybe it is a saudia's (OPEC) new trick to sell their oil at a premium rate, not supply and demand, or speculation BS!

Interesting times ahead. I think after this people will start searching for oil in the other unexplored terrority: International waters...
Click to expand...

Hey thanks for the article, very interesting and we never knwo for certain howmuch iol reserves they have

...These disagreements came to a head June 22 at a rare meeting of oil producing and consuming nations hosted by Saudi Arabia. In the end, Saudi Arabia said it could increase oil production capacity to 15 million barrels per day if needed in future years. But it gave no indication that step, or an immediate increase in output, was necessary or planned.

If all goes as scheduled, Aramco forecasts more than 50 billion barrels of fresh reserves from the giant fields by 2011. That amount alone would give Saudi Arabia the ninth largest oil reserves in the world, not even counting its existing reserves.

Outside analysts estimate the kingdom's total current reserves at about 260 billion barrels. But Saudi Arabia refuses to provide detailed data to allow independent verification...

thx

MS
 
Having just watched The Crash Course recommended elsewhere on ASF, I have to get some more discussion going on this topic.

Surely if we have reached peak oil which according to the graph shown

http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil

we have been at for the last four years or so, then POO is going to simply continue its march upwards is it not? There is no way that anything else can be introduced quickly to replace it, apart from gas which will have to have a peak as well. As demand starts to exceed supply, price will increase.
 
Oil price around US$54 at present with an OPEC output cut introduced 1 November and another output cut suggested for December.

Won`t reach US$50 and expect nearer US$60 / bbl over the next few months.

My opinion on oil price / barrel based upon past output cuts and the northern hemisphere winter rapidly approaching which may overide the recessionary phase noted on the chart in 2001.Let`s face it, it`s inevitable.
 

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Re: <$50 Oil anyone?

We should change the thread title to "<$50 Oil anyone?" :D

Remember things tend to shoot over or shoot under quite often. But when the mainstream media are being gloom and doom about oil prices and predicting they might go back to $30, i think we can be a little tid more bullish in the medium term and ultra bullish in the long term (not the short term though)
 
Temjin :D Exactly what I was about to post , so I agree wholeheartedly and would like to add with the northern winter here coupled with another impending OPEC cut, oil will be the first commodity to recover(with gold)
Cheers
 
With the current financial crisis I'm going to say we've seen at least a temporary peak for the next few years. Possibly, we've just seen the all time peak.

Why am I making such a huge claim? It's really quite simple.

1. Oil fields gradually lose output as reserves decline. That's a well established fact that nobody with any knowledge of the industry would challenge. It's just what happens in the same way as a battery slowly runs flat.

2. Without ongoing investment into new field development and reworking of existing fields, production will decline several % a year due to decline of exisiting fields.

3. OPEC claims to have cut production by about 1.5 million barrels per day. That means production now is below the peak given there's no realistic prospect that non-OPEC producers have ramped up to a comparable extent.

4. The financial situation would almost certainly be reducing exploration and development activity, especially for fields not viable at present oil prices. Given that the level of such activity in recent years was barely sufficient to maintain flat production, any drop in activity ought to lead to declining production. Same applies to the development of tar sands etc projects being delayed or cancelled.

5. It is generally accepted that the world had little if any spare production capacity prior to the crisis.

6. You join the dots. I can not see any logical conclusion from the above other than to state that we have passed at least an interim peak and that it would require a massive injection of capital, completely replacing all the investment lost amidst the financial crisis, just to maintain overall capacity broadly flat into the future. That strongly implies that total capacity will, in practice, decline. We've thus peaked at least until some new round of massive investment comes through - and that's likely to be years at least. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
With the current financial crisis I'm going to say we've seen at least a temporary peak for the next few years. Possibly, we've just seen the all time peak.

Why am I making such a huge claim? It's really quite simple.

1. Oil fields gradually lose output as reserves decline. That's a well established fact that nobody with any knowledge of the industry would challenge. It's just what happens in the same way as a battery slowly runs flat.

2. Without ongoing investment into new field development and reworking of existing fields, production will decline several % a year due to decline of exisiting fields.

3. OPEC claims to have cut production by about 1.5 million barrels per day. That means production now is below the peak given there's no realistic prospect that non-OPEC producers have ramped up to a comparable extent.

4. The financial situation would almost certainly be reducing exploration and development activity, especially for fields not viable at present oil prices. Given that the level of such activity in recent years was barely sufficient to maintain flat production, any drop in activity ought to lead to declining production. Same applies to the development of tar sands etc projects being delayed or cancelled.

5. It is generally accepted that the world had little if any spare production capacity prior to the crisis.

6. You join the dots. I can not see any logical conclusion from the above other than to state that we have passed at least an interim peak and that it would require a massive injection of capital, completely replacing all the investment lost amidst the financial crisis, just to maintain overall capacity broadly flat into the future. That strongly implies that total capacity will, in practice, decline. We've thus peaked at least until some new round of massive investment comes through - and that's likely to be years at least. :2twocents
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Hey smurf,
Totally agree with you - except for the interim bit! The latest IEA report that shows declines of upwards of 5% a year from the worlds existing major fields implies that there is NO way possible that any amount of investment will be able to restore production to above the peak we have already passed. It's all downhill for production and uphill (once demand starts to increase again) for price IMO.
 
A good thing.

We were paying $1.05 for unleaded yesterday. I don't believe it will stay there with Christmas around the corner.
 
Say I wanted to invest in oil quick? How would I go about doing that? I don't have many tools at my disposal (ASX Shares and options atm, might need to apply for another account somewhere) and my cash available to invest is small - but I don't want any leverage whatsoever. I know about position sizing and the like but I'm not sure as to the size of futures contracts (i.e if futures contracts are large for oil then I don't have enough capital to even make up one contract).

Oil will increase soon IMO. With all the commotion in the markets this is one thing that in the long term that will at least hold its purchasing power.

EDIT: I can't seem to find any ETF's that do oil in the local market either
 
aleckara said:
Say I wanted to invest in oil quick? How would I go about doing that? I don't have many tools at my disposal (ASX Shares and options atm, might need to apply for another account somewhere) and my cash available to invest is small - but I don't want any leverage whatsoever. I know about position sizing and the like but I'm not sure as to the size of futures contracts (i.e if futures contracts are large for oil then I don't have enough capital to even make up one contract).

Oil will increase soon IMO. With all the commotion in the markets this is one thing that in the long term that will at least hold its purchasing power.

EDIT: I can't seem to find any ETF's that do oil in the local market either
Click to expand...

Because there isn't. You can only buy oil commodity tracking ETFs from the US stock markets or the London Exchange.
 
I'm surprised that there have been no new threads posted lately on this forum. So many opinions have been put forward on the future price of oil to a point in time....Now there are no opinions?
Please be honest about the things all of you have learn't from your own personal experiences, positives and negatives.
I look forward to listening to your thoughts.
 
1Zion said:
I'm surprised that there have been no new threads posted lately on this forum. So many opinions have been put forward on the future price of oil to a point in time....Now there are no opinions?
Click to expand...

Hi,

Looks like all the oil speculation has moved to the "OIL AGAIN?" thread. Try there, I just posted an updated chart of USO there.
 
Thought l would post something from a while back.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={19065F21-1BF5-4C0B-ACB8-ADCEE6970B3B}&siteid=
 
DB008 said:
Thought l would post something from a while back.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={19065F21-1BF5-4C0B-ACB8-ADCEE6970B3B}&siteid=
Click to expand...

And the defining quote from that article has to be
Now it seems more likely that the "defining price for economic calamity" is somewhere north of $75, Kilduff said, adding that those are levels which seem inevitable, though they won't come "as a consequence of normal economic progression."
"The geopolitical pot ratcheted up to a rolling boil from a simmer just a few months ago," and "some miscalculation on that front could bring prices closer to the mythical $100 level, resulting in an economic slowdown of significance," he said.
Click to expand...
Indeed, when oil pushed relentlessly through 120, 130, 140 I truly felt fear for a collapse in just about everything... I just wish I had continued to feel the fear as the price eased...:eek:
 
It's running out pretty fast now, just a matter of time. 7% depletion per year, won't be long. I suggest buying petrol cars in Australia, because they can be converted to gas which is abundant here.
 
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