Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

>$50 Oil anyone?

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stefan said:
Hmmmm, oil now at $54... this is surely getting interesting.

Wayne, did you suffer a heart attack using your pushbike or are you still around? ;)

Happy trading

Stefan
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Hehe...actually, I have been secretly pedalling about for quite a while. No coronaries here :)

It's actually selling off a bit after touching the 54...under 53 atm.

Whats annoying me is that US shares are completely beholden to movements in the oil price and messing up my trading signals. One of those rare times where I have no share positions at all...long or short :(

Here's an interesting presentation regarding peak oil:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SPE 2004 Annual Conference.pdf
 
RichKid said:
Nah! Wayne's around alright, he's finally left the warm confines of his US forum and is posting all over the site now. Last time I heard he was working on a masterpiece (probably an exotic, multicoloured version of some obscure US stock chart). He's probably just lost his way, should be back soon... he he he he..
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:eek: Now I'm under pressure to perform! Masterpiece? Perhaps more along the lines of a Ken Done mural :)
 
Whats annoying me is that US shares are completely beholden to movements in the oil price
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And then there's this other guy over there who's still telling the world that it won't affect the US economy and that everything is just smooth sailing. In fact, oil prices don't have much of an impact these days anymore. The world is so much more independent from oil than back in the 80s.... Yeah, right... That's why we are all driving around in solar-powered cars (or pushbikes ;) ) and nothing else is based on oil anymore. What a nice world we're living in!

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Im running on LPG and am laughing at all the 4WD tossers crying about their petrol bill.

Cant wait till oil cracks $70 and unleaded hits $2, the roadsides will be littered with 4WD's for sale. Or maybe they will just be less inclined to use them as a school taxi. Ureka!
 
Here's an interesting link to light sweet crude prices over time to the present ....

http://www.oilnergy.com/1onymex.htm

NOT a good price trend heading into US winter IMO!! If the US first Purchaser graph keeps on track, around 2006 will see the historical record broken for all time high price. Then the sky is the limit?

Just as well the wife and I purchased our touring mountain bikes recently ... "ding..ding!"

AJ
 
:confused: Re LPG

Talking to a Sydney cabbie the other day
His gas was in the low 30 cents a few months ago
Now 46.9....approx 25% rise
He reckons they will keep puting it up even though we produce it here

Trust me ...I'm from the Gov. and here to help you????? :confused:

Cheers

PR
 
Hi guys,

Oil up, Stock Market down!!!

Just to show how oil is affecting the market; At market open oil was down to 51.60, So the stock market gaps up strongly...only to come immediatly under pressure as oil starts climbing during the day...closing at nearly 54 again.

Notice the strong inverse correlation.

On the left is the Dow intraday chart and on the right is november crude
 

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re LPG

when petrol rises, more people convert to LPG right? so its a normal supply/demand thing. also, a 4c discount on a 40c product is a 10% discount, 4c off a 110c product is about 3% :)

my LPG bill for the week has gone from $12 to $15 lol
 
crashy,

I don't want to spoil the party and I was looking into LPG myself not so long ago. There is something that kept me from having my car converted to LPG. The costs for the convertion itself will be offset within a year, depending on usage and how many k's you're driving. So that's something that can be calculated easy enough. However, the bad part is the value of your car should you want to trade it in for another one. This is obviously not a problem if you're driving your car until it's falling apart. There are a lot of studies about LPG efficiency and most of them ignore the fact that the loss you incure when trading in your vehicle will be much higher than the savings you managed to accumulate over the first 3 years. And it just so happens that Australians trade in their cars after 3 years on average.

That doesn't mean that LPG can't be more efficient. All you need to do is driving the same car for a few more years as depreciation will slow down the longer you drive your car while your savings on fuel will increase.

After all, there is also the environmental benefit of LPG which can't be denied. Even so you need more LPG, the emission levels are still lower than with a petrol or diesel engine.

So depending on your personal situation, LPG can save you quite some money or it may actually turn out to be one of those "pay less now to pay more later" things.

There's an interesting study from the Australian National University. They compared LPG to ULP over the lifetime of their car fleet.

The LPG vehicles trialled by Facilities & Services demonstrate in concrete terms that significant environmental benefits are available over the life of a vehicle from using LPG instead of ULP. The added up-front cost of an LPG system is recouped after less than half the vehicle's life through savings in fuel cost, and 3000kgCO2e in greenhouse gas emissions can be saved over the life of the vehicle. However the low resale value in the current market negates the financial benefits for the University.
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The study can be found here:
http://www.anu.edu.au/facilities/anugreen/cases/lpgvehicles.html

Happy trading

Stefan
 
thats interesting.

I wonder why resale is affected. Perhaps it is the storage space? I would have expected resale to be good currently since many people are complaining about petrol costs. Oh well, I can feel all warm and fuzzy about the CO2 emmissions :)
 
Mind you, this was 2 years ago and you do have a point that interest in LPG cars may grow while petrol is expensive.

So keep feeling warm and fuzzy and just keep that car a bit longer. Then you may well save a lot of money. Oil seems to be poised for $70 if we believe those analysts.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Interesting how Greenspan plays down a 'potentially looming' oil crisis with the big US election barney just around the corner.

Let's see. In early September, Nymex oil was around $40 barrel. In mid October it hits $55. Draw a progression line through THAT graph and it forecasts $70+ by mid November! And that's not BAD?

He also waffles on about how within 50 years world governments will develop alternative sources (obviously, only the RICH DEVELOPED ones!). Hmmmm. I'll bet within 50 months we'll be screaming for that technology to replace the $4.00-5.00 litre unleaded price we may well be forking out!

And besides, how will the mass of desperately poor, oil/coal dependent countries of the world pay for what is likely to be ultra-expensive oil/coal alternative energy technologies? Interesting times ahead indeed...

AJ
 
but its ok, cos Bush and all his Texas oil buddies will be happy to bleed the country dry...."4 more years!" hahaha yeah bring it on. By 2008 oil will be $100 if the village idiot gets in again. Alternative energy sources? not with a Texan running the show.
 
By 2008 oil will be $100 if the village idiot gets in again. Alternative energy sources? not with a Texan running the show.
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That pretty much sums it all up nicely :D

Have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Just a question to add another dimension to this discussion,

Does anyone know a site that provides a guide to what crude oil is actually used for (ie a breakdown with percentages)? The only reason I ask is that all discussions seem to look at oil usage for fuel, without taking into account the use by the petrochemical industries for plastics, rubber, etc.

Is it a significant percentage, and if so do they require higher or lower grades of oil than is usually refined for fuel usage?

Cheers in advance
 
Does anyone know a site that provides a guide to what crude oil is actually used for (ie a breakdown with percentages)? The only reason I ask is that all discussions seem to look at oil usage for fuel, without taking into account the use by the petrochemical industries for plastics, rubber, etc.
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This has already been mentioned earlier in the thread. I guess Ghotib has posted a few things and I've put up a link related to the topic.

You're right. There is much more than fuel. It is actually scary to see what else is related to oil. Haven't seen a complete list but then again I never looked for it either.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Modern Agriculture is totally reliant on oil :eek: from the manufacture of fertilizers to transport, refrigeration, tractors etc
 
wayneL said:
Disturbing reading.....
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To put it mildly :(

Perhaps the best avenue for investment now might be to buy a small farm in some arable area like New Zealand; sink a few wells; plant some crops; raise useful animals like horses, bullocks, goats, and chickens; put a big wall around the place; and stockpile an arsenal of weapons.

And hope no one ever thinks the country is worth nuking :D.

GP
 
wayneL said:
Modern Agriculture is totally reliant on oil :eek: from the manufacture of fertilizers to transport, refrigeration, tractors etc
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This *>$50 Oil anyone?* thread made me laugh/cry retrospectively today, with oil now >$83!! :) :(

Just goes to show, panic at $50 barrel back in 2004 - now here we are saying *>$100 Oil anyone?* in 2007! hahaha... :)

Sniff.... :(


AJ
 
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