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5%+ gains in a week on XJO

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asxiq

asxiq
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few observations
this is the 9th such instance since OCT 2001
below the past 8 such instances
Week next week change %
28-11-2011 ??
24-10-2011 -1.66
13-07-2009 2.22
23-03-2009 1.72
09-03-2009 3.61
27-01-2009 -2.00
24-11-2008 -6.75
31-03-2008 -3.21
20-08-2007 2.61

avg return for the next week is -(.43%)
4 up and 4 down closes
 
Re: 5 % ++ gains in a week on XJO

asxiq said:
few observations
this is the 9th such instance since OCT 2001
below the past 8 such instances
Week next week change %
28-11-2011 ??
24-10-2011 -1.66
13-07-2009 2.22
23-03-2009 1.72
09-03-2009 3.61
27-01-2009 -2.00
24-11-2008 -6.75
31-03-2008 -3.21
20-08-2007 2.61

avg return for the next week is -(.43%)
4 up and 4 down closes
Click to expand...

What about the avg return for the week after the next week?
 
asxiq said:
few observations
this is the 9th such instance since OCT 2001
below the past 8 such instances
Week next week change %
28-11-2011 ??
24-10-2011 -1.66
13-07-2009 2.22
23-03-2009 1.72
09-03-2009 3.61
27-01-2009 -2.00
24-11-2008 -6.75
31-03-2008 -3.21
20-08-2007 2.61

avg return for the next week is -(.43%)
4 up and 4 down closes
Click to expand...

nomore4s said:
What about the avg return for the week after the next week?
Click to expand...

While you are at it can you tell me what the winning numbers will be for this years NSW New Years Eve Lotto?
 
asxiq said:
looks much better with 6/8 gains and 1.48 % avg gain
Click to expand...

Would need some more detailed stats but a good idea might to buy any weakness we see next week and look for strength to come in the following week.

nulla nulla said:
While you are at it can you tell me what the winning numbers will be for this years NSW New Years Eve Lotto?
Click to expand...

Nulla having a good idea how the market reacts after big moves can give you an edge or at least a strategy of how and what to look for over the next few weeks.
 
IMO the sample size is too small to really make any call...

asxiq, can I ask a question?

What is the average performance of US markets on their Friday if the XJO moves >1% from Friday 12pm to close?
 
nomore4s said:
Would need some more detailed stats but a good idea might to buy any weakness we see next week and look for strength to come in the following week.



Nulla having a good idea how the market reacts after big moves can give you an edge or at least a strategy of how and what to look for over the next few weeks.
Click to expand...

Knee jerk driven market movements are usualy followed by a reversal.

A downward sell off spike (panic, capitulation) is usualy followed by a recovery (mind you if the basis of the downward spike had some merit the market will likely drift back down over the following weeks to the low point of the spike and/or lower).

A sudden upward spike driven by irrational exuberance is usually a bubble, which bursts as the experienced traders sell into the rise and subsequent fall.

Both represent trading oppotunites.
 
skc said:
IMO 1)the sample size is too small to really make any call...

asxiq, can I ask a question?

What is the average performance of US markets on their Friday if the XJO moves >1% from Friday 12pm to close?
Click to expand...

2) don't have the hourly data of XJO , so restricting the study to those dates where XJO change > 1 % & today friday , the corresponding SP 500 index close-close move ( as SP 500 index might again have a systematic error with the staggered opening ) , will do SPDR ETF open to close change later in the day .. and post it
Date %age change
02-12-2011 -0.02
11-11-2011 1.95
04-11-2011 -0.63
07-10-2011 -0.82
16-09-2011 0.57
22-07-2011 0.09
08-07-2011 -0.70
18-03-2011 0.43
04-03-2011 -0.74
05-11-2010 0.39
13-08-2010 -0.40
23-07-2010 0.82
11-06-2010 0.44
28-05-2010 -1.24
06-11-2009 0.25
30-10-2009 -2.81
31-07-2009 0.07
26-06-2009 -0.15
29-05-2009 1.36
15-05-2009 -1.14
03-04-2009 0.97
13-03-2009 0.77
13-02-2009 -1.00
06-02-2009 2.69
09-01-2009 -2.13
28-11-2008 0.96
21-11-2008 6.32
14-11-2008 -4.17
19-09-2008 4.03
12-09-2008 0.21
29-08-2008 -1.37
22-08-2008 1.13
07-07-2008 -0.84
06-06-2008 -3.09
02-05-2008 0.32
14-03-2008 -2.08
08-02-2008 -0.42
01-02-2008 1.22
25-01-2008 -1.59
21-12-2007 1.67
30-11-2007 0.78
26-10-2007 1.38
14-09-2007 0.02
31-08-2007 1.12
12-01-2007 0.49
30-06-2006 -0.21
16-06-2006 -0.37
09-06-2006 -0.45
26-05-2006 0.57
05-05-2006 1.03
27-01-2006 0.78
17-06-2005 0.50
23-05-2003 0.14
14-03-2003 0.16
15-11-2002 0.61
08-02-2002 1.49
no +ve 34
no -ve 22
avg 0.17

1) yes the sample size is small , personally i prefer the sample size to be around 25 trades giving an statistical accuracy (1 - 1/SQRT(n) , n being the sample size) of about 80%
 
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