30k to invest - investment timing/strategy

[Shrewd Crude]

hey hotbmw,
Now might be the time to invest, but one thing is for sure...
there will always be great opportunities on the sharemarket... so why not wait when market risk is lower? I think we will get a double bottom (On the DOW) or a slight overshoot to perhaps 7,000-7,500...
Sutti said exactly what Ise about to say... forget about index funds...
do it yourself... in this game you can only trust one person...
and thats you... learn it, and get hands on experience...
...
I really think you are looking at the wrong sorts of stocks mate...
Large stocks are not really ideal and they have proven to me this year why that is the case... We have seen large stocks fall as much as small stocks...
eg STO down 50% in 3 weeks... BHP off massively... etc etc..... when times are good small stocks (to medium stocks) outperform large stocks hands down...
so much better risk return... also smaller stocks give you leverage that big stocks dont give you...
I wont go into what sort of small stocks you should look at...

You give very vague details in your first post...before you even go into that, think about your risk profile... and good luck... let us know how you get on...
questions are welcome...
peace...

.^sc

 

[shaunQ]

shaunQ, 6% gross returns after taxation makes it under a 4% return.

Yes true, profits are taxed whilst losses are not.

Then you need to allow for inflation which is presently 5%.

Yes, but the point was in comparison to losing 10+% of your capital in the market. The market also needs to compete inflation.

 

[aleckara]

The real problem here is that as a previous post stated if you aren't willing to learn to trade (and not everyone wants to be a trader) this is a market for gamblers. I wouldn't invest in high dividend stocks if the capital loss will exceed the dividend. Your losing money.

The market is on a downcycle at the moment IMO. Why put your money into that? Government has stuffed things up with low interest rates, and short selling bans as well so they are really trying to encourage you to lose your money.

 

[The Edge]

Monday 17 November 2008

To the original poster:

Sit on your money.

If you want to invest in something, spend
$25 or $30 an buy:

"How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning
System in Good Times or Bad, 3rd Edition
by William O'Neil"

You will see how to take responsibility for
your own buy/sell decisions without having
to rely upon someone else. No one has a
more vested interest in your success than
you.

There are plenty of books out there, but
this one is an excellent primer for the beginner,
and not so beginner, alike.

Cheers!

FWIW:

Dollar cost averaging is a fool's errand.

 

[brty]

Hi,

Add to your winners (shares going up), get rid of your losers, (shares going down).

That is age old market wisdom, it is repeated all over this site, virtually everyone agrees with the concept.

Then people constantly come up with the plan to buy more because they are cheaper (average down). All this does to a portfolio is guarantee that you have most of your money in shares that have lost the most of their value.

In the long run you will be a trader, ie buying now, selling at some point in the future, whether that be 2,5,10,20 or 50 years time. In the long run most stocks go to $0, (this includes bluechips).

Buy something now (only a little bit), get a few books and start getting educated. The reason to buy something is that you then have skin in the game. Be prepared to lose a little bit on what you buy, then sell it for a small loss, you can always buy it back later if it meets your criteria after a bit of research.

brty

 

[hotbmw]

thanks brty. will do that.

wow so many differing opinions. i was always told by so many that dollar cost averaging was a good thing....

i just downloaded the book now "How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad"

Thanks.
Rob

 

[BearCuban12]

thanks brty. will do that.

i just downloaded the book now "How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad"

Hi Rob - Where do you download the book from?

 

[vkdirector]

Where do you download the book from?

I found the book here http://knowfree.net/2008/07/17/how-to-make-money-in-stocks-a-winning-system-in-good-times-or-bad.kf

I think the direct link is here http://rapidshare.com/files/129078435/HowMakeMStocks.rar

Hope that helps out

 

[hotbmw]

hi bearcuban
sorry i didnt see ur question.
if u dont have the book yet let me know.

pretty much any book is online, u just need to know how to get it

 

[hotbmw]

after reading more, learning more, convincing myself the 3300 support levels will be broken, i hope i didnt miss the bottom
todays lows were about the prices my initial post stated....

fingers crossed

 

[shaunQ]

Either way, even if it was the absolute final bottom, it will most likely retrace to similar lows again in the near future.

 

[kam75]

Sorry when i said im not interested in day trading i just mean i dont plan to buy and sell daily. i will follow and manage the shares and move in and out over the long term as required.
sorry for the confusion.

i hope to hear your thoughts soon.

Thanks
Rob

Hi Rob

I'd wait for the market to turn around first as its still very early stages. With 30k I would invest into 4-5 companies that have recently had a large change in volume, are rising in OBV and price, outperforming the rest of this stale market. Hint - look at some of the small to medium caps in the resource sector. These will be the new leaders once the rest of the market begins rising. Use a tight protective stoploss and trail up as their trend unfolds.
best of luck

 

[joeyr46]

after reading more, learning more, convincing myself the 3300 support levels will be broken, i hope i didnt miss the bottom
todays lows were about the prices my initial post stated....

fingers crossed

The bottom isn't in yet it will come after everybody stops trying to pick it and stocks worth buying wil have already bottomed and showing signs of being accumulated. It's never quick most bottoms take time to develop and most people miss them because we're impatient. Also if your in for the long haul the bottom or a bit above when the pattern has developed isn't going to matter

 

[Tukker]

I did a nice technical analysis course in Perth over the holidays. It taught me how to design and trade within a trading system that i was comfortable with. The system tells you what shares to buy, how many to buy, when to buy them, at what price etc, without all the, "hey mate, what do you think i should buy?" stuff. They explained about risk, the psychology of loosing/winning, the traps people fall into and how to avoid them.

Once you finish the course, you are assigned a trainer who will help you design your own system and he/she will assist you every time you want to add a new one or modify the original.

The beauty of system trading is that it takes about 20 mins a day to manage your investment so you can get on with your day to day.

It seemed a bit pricey at first, but i made that money back trading my system very quickly (luck, skill? i don't know). The company is called Hometrader, not a sales pitch, just an experience i had. Ive been using their education for the last 3 years and doing very well during this meltdown shorting CFDs (when they were available).

Happy trading.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I did a nice technical analysis course in Perth over the holidays. It taught me how to design and trade within a trading system that i was comfortable with. The system tells you what shares to buy, how many to buy, when to buy them, at what price etc, without all the, "hey mate, what do you think i should buy?" stuff. They explained about risk, the psychology of loosing/winning, the traps people fall into and how to avoid them.

Once you finish the course, you are assigned a trainer who will help you design your own system and he/she will assist you every time you want to add a new one or modify the original.

The beauty of system trading is that it takes about 20 mins a day to manage your investment so you can get on with your day to day.

It seemed a bit pricey at first, but i made that money back trading my system very quickly (luck, skill? i don't know). The company is called Hometrader, not a sales pitch, just an experience i had. Ive been using their education for the last 3 years and doing very well during this meltdown shorting CFDs (when they were available).

Happy trading.

Whats the % risk capital per trade?

What has price got to do with it

What gem did they offer about "psychology of loosing/winning"??