2015 NSW Election

[orr]

........... any fake perfume sprayed around by that pussy Baird.........

I like nothing more than to see the merkin secreted into political debate...
Strange to note also that the odds from the bookmakers on the election result aren't a regular feature down the pages of this thread, as has been a preoccupation for some.

I'm putting a lazy 10 on a very hung parliament. If I'm reading the white hot but quite discontent for what it is. Add to that the Abbott factor.

 

[drsmith]

I'm putting a lazy 10 on a very hung parliament.

Labor winning offers longer odds.

 

[Smurf1976]

Comparing bills is problematic because of large variations in consumption, household composition and how people use electricity in different states.

There's a huge difference in usage patterns between states which makes comparison difficult. Huge use of gas in Victoria, the highest market penetration in the world, versus the near total dominance of electricity in Tasmania are just two examples of the differences.

So it's hard to compare between states and that is true even if just comparing the actual prices due to the different tariff and metering structures.

What can be said with certainty however is that once transmission and distribution were separated from generation (ie the split up of the former utilities), costs went through the roof and this has occurred right across the country.

Any rational argument would thus be based not on ownership per se, but on industry structure and regulation.

The real point here is that the power industry is just one example of a broader problem. A great deal of the political debate in Australia, at all levels, is aimed at addressing the wrong problem. Whether by accident or by intent, politicians manage to confuse the public, and possibly themselves or their opponents, as to what the underlying problem is in any given situation. Once that occurs, any solution will be ineffective for the simple reason that it addresses the wrong problem.

It's akin to applying a plaster cast when the patient's real problem is a viral infection which just happens to have given them a sore leg. Unfortunately, our politicians and media take a sore leg to automatically mean a broken leg, without an apparent ability to get to the real problem.

 

[Macquack]

Hi Smurf, what is your opinion on privatisation of electricity retailing?

In NSW, we have mobile phone companies like "Dodo" selling electricity! Surely they are doing nothing more than reading meters and sending bills. I can read the meter myself, inform the "real" electricity supplier and CUT OUT THE MIDDLE MAN.

 

[Craton]

You know, for those of us in the Far West of NSW it isn't just about poles and wires. Water is the main game out here but there ya go, situation normal.

From my point of view, those east of the divide will have more say and sway than those west. Not a dig, just the cynic in me talking out loud.

Whichever party wins, it will be more of the same hamstrung politics that's become the norm of late. The major parties are both on the nose with policies that fail to ignite and rally the electorate, although they do know how to put us offside.

The Greens. What started out as such a positive alternative have lost their way. Fancy siding with Labor *sigh*
The minor parties if elected will further cripple any real economic and social reform by way of the hung parliament and pursuit of their own agendas.

Ho hum.... status quo.

FWIW, I'll be voting for the devil I know...or maybe not. Will see later when iVote online.

 

[Smurf1976]

Hi Smurf, what is your opinion on privatisation of electricity retailing?

I'll put it this way. Momentum (Hydro Tas) has recently gone into the gas retailing business in Victoria in direct competition with the likes of AGL and Origin.

In theory, the big players ought to have a huge advantage given that they've been doing gas for rather a long time and are heavily invested in it. They have scale in their favour with a huge number of customers versus Momentum starting from scratch with gas and having a much smaller electricity customer base too. In some cases (notably Origin Energy) the big players even produce their own gas. And yet Momentum has simply walked in and undercut them on retail pricing with no real difficulty.

Someone's making a lot of money sending out gas bills it would seem.

Back to the NSW election context, the real issue in all this discussion about utilities is that we've moved from a model based on serving the public at the lowest possible cost, to a model based on maximising profit. That's the crux of it and the same applies to power, gas, water and to some extent even roads.

 

[drsmith]

The multi-coloured Greens,

 

[SirRumpole]

Back to the NSW election context, the real issue in all this discussion about utilities is that we've moved from a model based on serving the public at the lowest possible cost, to a model based on maximising profit. That's the crux of it and the same applies to power, gas, water and to some extent even roads.

Of high concern must be "commercial in confidence" contracts which are an excellent means of hiding all sorts of trash from public eyes.

In NSW, roads have been closed that would compete with privately run tollways and there is usually some sort of profit guarantee built in that only comes to light after a change of government.

That's why a 99 year lease is so absurd. It locks us in to current technology for nearly a century. If someone comes up with an efficient solar battery system that does away with poles and wires, does the taxpayer have to compensate the leasing company ?

Leases of public assets should be no more than 10 years, and all the terms of the contract must be made public and voted on before the contracts are signed.

 

[noco]

The voters of NSW have finally woken up to the lies and empty rhetoric of the Green/Labor socialist party.

Perhaps Martin Ferguson, Michael Costa and Peter Beattie may have had some influence in the out come.....Labor must surely be also worried about how the Greens are stealing their votes....They have gone too far to the left and it is about time Labor got back to their true grass roots not that the Greens are any better...far from it.

I am sure there will be a rub off Federally as well.......Voters are finally beginning to realize just where the Green/Labor socialist coalition are heading and it is not good news.

 

[Ferret]

Mike Baird's personal popularity went a long way to ensuring the LNP victory.

I expect that federally Abbott will get a boost from this result, but he isn't half the leader that Baird is.

 

[McLovin]

Mike Baird's personal popularity went a long way to ensuring the LNP victory.

I expect that federally Abbott will get a boost from this result, but he isn't half the leader that Baird is.

Baird's popularity lies in the fact that he can control the centre and isn't a partisan hack like Abbott. If anything, this result shows that the electorate is tired of ideological brawlers with zero real world experience, and wants leaders that understand what pragmatism means. Thank God Sydney is getting those new roads as well.

Hopefully at the federal level they get the balls now to roll Abbott. The idea that you can't win successive elections because the electorate has changed is just BS invented by unpopular politicians.

 

[Tink]

Good result for Australia.

Lucky you, McLovin, getting your roads.
We, Victorians, have been told to go cattle class, on public transport.

On the NSW election day, Labor plastered images of the Prime Minister over election day posters, with Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese telling voters that -

“If Luke Foley is elected Premier then Tony Abbott will be gone next week’’.

Does that mean Bill Shorten is under fire.

 

[SirRumpole]

The Libs were always going to win, but a swing of 9% to Labor means a lot of people are worried about the big issue of electricity privatisation.

Hopefully the swing will convince the Libs to modify or abandon that policy.

 

[Ferret]

The Libs were always going to win, but a swing of 9% to Labor means a lot of people are worried about the big issue of electricity privatisation.

Hopefully the swing will convince the Libs to modify or abandon that policy.

Unlike Abbott, Baird has been totally up front about what he would do if elected. He has a legitimate mandate to sell the electricity assets now.

 

[noco]

The Libs were always going to win, but a swing of 9% to Labor means a lot of people are worried about the big issue of electricity privatisation.

Hopefully the swing will convince the Libs to modify or abandon that policy.

I would say the swing was a correction from the disaster Labor experienced in 2011 and is nothing for them to crow about.

Mike Baird has a mandate and Labor should honor that mandate....Why should Baird modify or abandon that policy....Labor are sore losers and must accept the fact voters have thrown their support by the Liberals policy....It is called democracy...Something the Fabians don't believe in..

Labor should begin to rethink their strategy....stop the lies....stop the scare campaigns......get back to the real grass roots of Labor and move away from the influence of the Greens... This Labor Party are not the same party they were 70 years ago.

Labor's lies and rhetoric might have worked in Victoria and Queensland, but the people of NSW have taken heed of the results and the outcome in those other two states.

 

[SirRumpole]

Unlike Abbott, Baird has been totally up front about what he would do if elected. He has a legitimate mandate to sell the electricity assets now.

So you agree that a 99 year lease is a "sale" ?

 

[Ferret]

So you agree that a 99 year lease is a "sale" ?

Yes, it's effectively a sale.

It would be nice for the state keep the assets, but Baird's plans to build new infrastructure with the funds raised are sound. The concept of "asset recycling" has merit.

Labor were also promising new infrastructure, but little mention of how they would pay for it .....

 

[Logique]

The final makeup of the NSW upper house (LC) is the one to watch.

Fred Nile's Christian Democrats may end up with the balance of power.

 

[drsmith]

Someone's lost their lazy $10.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yes, it's effectively a sale.

It would be nice for the state keep the assets, but Baird's plans to build new infrastructure with the funds raised are sound. The concept of "asset recycling" has merit.

A sale - in practice 99 years is a sale. Very few if any who voted in this election will be alive when the lease ends.

As for the "asset recycling" well that really depends on what the new assets are, how they are financed overall, and whether there's anything dodgy in either their construction or financing.

A publicly owned water supply system - seems reasonable.

A "public private partnership" toll road or practically any other PPP - pretty much corruption based on past examples.

There's also the question of how it's built. Let's hope we don't see the old trick of paying $2 billion to a preferred contractor for an asset that's worth $1 billion once built. Labor and Liberal are both pretty good at that game.

But the election has been held, so the government does have a legitimate case to proceed with the sale (or "lease" as they call it). No real argument there.