2013 Federal Election: 7 September 2013

[Calliope]

Will Palmer get his comeuppance.?

THE Queensland seat of Fairfax is on a knife edge, with only 64 votes separating Clive Palmer and Liberal National Party rival Ted O'Brien.

- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...y-fn3dxiwe-1226720710688#sthash.3MPvh11n.dpuf

 

[drsmith]

Will Palmer get his comeuppance.?


- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...y-fn3dxiwe-1226720710688#sthash.3MPvh11n.dpuf

It will be a bellyache and a half from Clive if he doesn't get up.

Sophie Mirabella too is now less than 400 votes behind the independent candidate for Indi. This could also go down to the wire.

McEwen has been going the other way with the Labor candidate having taken the lead and is now about 300 votes in front.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/electorates/#seats-in-doubt

 

[Julia]

Even when he was miles ahead, Clive was insisting the AEC was corrupt and that he would demand a new election.
God knows what he'll be on about if he actually loses.

He gets nuttier by the day, with his conspiracy theories that the scrutineers are all taken from the defence forces.
I've just googled how scrutineers are appointed and there's no support in the AEC material for this suggestion.
Incredibly, on Q & A where he again aired this theory, not one of the panel members or Tony Jones countered it.

Hopefully, the LNP candidate will scrape home in Fairfax.

 

[drsmith]

Sophie Mirabella has conceded her seat with I would say, good grace.

"This election is over and the responsibility for the outcome is mine.

"Despite the closeness of the count I have decided not to seek a recount. I unreservedly accept the decision of the democratic process."

The decision came as she trailed by 387 votes with little more than 1000 to be counted.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...to-cathy-mcgowan/story-fn9qr68y-1226721804748

 

[Whiskers]

Even when he was miles ahead, Clive was insisting the AEC was corrupt and that he would demand a new election.
God knows what he'll be on about if he actually loses.

He gets nuttier by the day, with his conspiracy theories that the scrutineers are all taken from the defence forces.
I've just googled how scrutineers are appointed and there's no support in the AEC material for this suggestion.
Incredibly, on Q & A where he again aired this theory, not one of the panel members or Tony Jones countered it.

Hopefully, the LNP candidate will scrape home in Fairfax.

Hey Julia... take it a bit easy on ole Clive!

I'm not a fan or active supporter of the man, but he does make some reasonable points that deserve a reasonable response... and not just swept under the carpet like so many bureaucratic bungles in the past.

While not personally worked in an electoral office I know many who have, and even seen some of the complacent practices and procedures with potential for electoral fraud or at least negligent misrepresentation of results, aired on this forum.

I don't recall any results being exactly the same after a recount. Often there is a hundred or so difference. We expect our bank account to be exact to the cent, so why in the day and age can we not do an exact vote count first time! A vote is either valid or not. So if validated is it not reasonable to expect that a vote in a contemporary system to then be allocated exactly 100% accurately like an atm can distinguish between a $5 and $50 note, or business and government agencies use scanning technology to derive information from specially designed forms like a ballot paper?

With the speed and efficiency of modern technology it's becoming more apparent how the big parties have exploited 'the system' to maintain the lions share of political positions. The recent election of some senators in particular on a coordinated preference arrangement has highlighted how easy the system is to abuse.

The ability to vote a number of times at a number of booths, whether in your own name or a recently deceased name or both is glaringly obvious and deserves a simple fix such as first glance, computerised referencing of the roll.

This sort of rorting was loudly condemned in the union movement long ago... so it's not unreasonable to ask why such an easy fix to an often raised issue (although not often getting the media attention that Clive attracts) has not been legislated, given the AEC has to have legislation before it can change it's ways.

 

[drsmith]

Clive does deserve a certain amount of credit in netting a significant protest vote. Although what comes out of his mouth is sometimes rather silly, his mastery of this aspect of the political process shows he's no dill.

He'll find turning that into a long term support base more challenging though I suspect. That will require much more detailed policy work than he's currently done and it will be interesting to see how he manages party discipline.

 

[Julia]

Hey Julia... take it a bit easy on ole Clive!

I'm not a fan or active supporter of the man, but he does make some reasonable points that deserve a reasonable response... and not just swept under the carpet like so many bureaucratic bungles in the past.

The problem is that almost all the media is doing just that, Whiskers, ie "taking it easy on ole Clive", presumably because he's entertaining.
I'm not so kind. I think it's just absolutely wrong that he has apparently got away with his full page advertisements saying if he's elected

pensioners will receive a 20% increase to the age pension
taxes will be cut
every person will receive cash of $2500

and various other promises.
There are plenty of people who will have read this, and truly believe that if they vote for him, the above will actually happen.

I couldn't care less about Clive Palmer in any sense other than that the gullibility of some of the electorate has distorted the electoral process, and I don't believe he is being properly scrutinised by the media.

The good news is (imo, of course) is that the count for Fairfax is now showing him behind the LNP candidate.

While not personally worked in an electoral office I know many who have, and even seen some of the complacent practices and procedures with potential for electoral fraud or at least negligent misrepresentation of results, aired on this forum.

By all means have a recount. I haven't commented on that. What I said was that he was asserting that he would be expecting a new election in Fairfax. That's just symptomatic of his absolute egocentricity and arrogance.

 

[spooly74]

The good news is (imo, of course) is that the count for Fairfax is now showing him behind the LNP candidate.

He was this morning, but now has taken a whopping 3 vote lead when it was last updated.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm

 

[pixel]

He was this morning, but now has taken a whopping 3 vote lead when it was last updated.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm

LOL ! What a hoot!
A difference of less than 100 would lead automatically to a recount.
But I do hope "good ole Clive" does get in. Not because I believe he has a chance of becoming PM and pushing his ideas through. Nor do I believe that any of his pre-election utterings could be misconstrued as promises along the line of "Vote for me and you'll get 20% more pension" etc.
The reason I want him in the House and some like him in the Senate is: I am dead-set against the Parliament being dominated by Old Boys, School Ties, and Lawyers. Hearing a self-made Billionaire, no matter how eccentric, pit his own arrogance against the arrogance of the equally self-centered 2-Party establishment will be a breeze of fresh air - IMHO.

 

[Whiskers]

By all means have a recount. I haven't commented on that. What I said was that he was asserting that he would be expecting a new election in Fairfax. That's just symptomatic of his absolute egocentricity and arrogance.

I understand your frustration Julia... but try not to get too worked up that you end up playing the person instead of the ball, if I may use that analogy, recalling the infamous Greg and Trevor Chappell under arm bowl to beat the Kiwi's in the cricket. It was legal, but just not cricket! The poor ole Kiwi batsman stood there starring down the pitch in disbelief and horror, while if he'd been focused he had plenty of time to snap out of it and just do what he was a second or two earlier, fully intending to do... just play the ball, hit the damn thing as hard as he could to give the team a chance to win.

The reason why I'm paying a bit more attention to the seat result, more than the man, as time goes by is because a bloke of his notoriety and financial resources makes enough noise he may well just cause a review of the AEC act and proceedures. That would be a good thing.

If he can make a legal case of 'beyond reasonable doubt' or the lower burden of proof 'on the balance of probabilities' (I not familiar with what law governs this) he may well cause a re-election.

The downside from that, assuming Abbott doesn't act quickly to rectify the flawed electoral system, is Abbott will score a black eye and Palmer and others may get a boost in the name of, or just guise of standing up for better accountability.

LOL ! What a hoot!
A difference of less than 100 would lead automatically to a recount.
But I do hope "good ole Clive" does get in. Not because I believe he has a chance of becoming PM and pushing his ideas through. Nor do I believe that any of his pre-election utterings could be misconstrued as promises along the line of "Vote for me and you'll get 20% more pension" etc.
The reason I want him in the House and some like him in the Senate is: I am dead-set against the Parliament being dominated by Old Boys, School Ties, and Lawyers. Hearing a self-made Billionaire, no matter how eccentric, pit his own arrogance against the arrogance of the equally self-centered 2-Party establishment will be a breeze of fresh air - IMHO.

You're a wise ole soul pixel.

I agree with you... sometimes when one (the traditional establishment) does not do what one ought to do, 'fate' kicks in and does it for you.

I think it's called natural justice.

 

[Julia]

Pixel and Whiskers, I'm happy for you to enjoy the eccentric Mr Palmer.
I am, however, entirely unmoved in terms of being persuaded as to his usefulness.

And, Whiskers, any cricketing analogies are quite wasted on me.

 

[MrBurns]

Pixel and Whiskers, I'm happy for you to enjoy the eccentric Mr Palmer.
I am, however, entirely unmoved in terms of being persuaded as to his usefulness.

And, Whiskers, any cricketing analogies are quite wasted on me.

His latest statement leave me wondering how he runs a company at all, his supporters must feel terribly let down.

 

[Calliope]

Pixel and Whiskers, I'm happy for you to enjoy the eccentric Mr Palmer.
I am, however, entirely unmoved in terms of being persuaded as to his usefulness.

And, Whiskers, any cricketing analogies are quite wasted on me.

If Pixel thinks that Palmer is a "breeze of fresh air" he must be living in a very polluted atmosphere indeed.

 

[bunyip]

I just wish JuLIAR Gillard had led the Labor party to the election instead of Rudd. I was delighted to see Rudd get flogged, but I would have been even more delighted if that red-haired monster Gillard had led them to an even bigger hammering than Labor copped in the NSW and QLD elections. And that’s exactly what would have happened if they’d stuck with Gillard.
My perfect scenario would have been to see Gillard lead the ALP to the biggest landslide defeat in Australian political history, Rudd take over as opposition leader, and the ALP under Rudd get pounded again at the next election in three years time.

 

[Logique]

It will be a bellyache and a half from Clive if he doesn't get up......http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/electorates/#seats-in-doubt

The polling place staff might be getting nervous, Palmer is very litigious, with deep pockets.

 

[Whiskers]

Pixel and Whiskers, I'm happy for you to enjoy the eccentric Mr Palmer.
I am, however, entirely unmoved in terms of being persuaded as to his usefulness.

I'm sure Labor might find him, with his history from membership of the LNP, useful as a poisoned chalice of the LNP "brand", of good ship Newman and Abbott.

I refer to party membership and donations. Labor took the moral high ground some time ago refusing to accept tobacco money. Palmer had been a very strong supporter of the LNP esp in Qld until they had a falling out.

It will be interesting to see what comes out of a full blown political brawl if Clive becomes elected. I'm sure he knows a lot more about the inner working than he has spilt so far... and I expect if he gets into a parliamentary seat he will, not so much spill information, but use his intimate knowledge and financial resources to much more effect inflicting much pain on the LNP brand and probably Abbotts government.

And, Whiskers, any cricketing analogies are quite wasted on me.

Ok... I don't know the net ball equivalent , so simple translation, sometimes even good neighbours and mates can rub each other up the wrong way a bit in terms of who's the best... and if the animosity festers, always, always expect the unexpected.

Hence my caution that Tony Abbott is hanging to power by a thread which can potentially be broken pretty easily with a reinvigorated Labor and some turmoil by p!ssed off former loyal supporters like Clive.

The polling place staff might be getting nervous, Palmer is very litigious, with deep pockets.

Apparently Palmer has surged ahead a bit more!

Did the AEC staff find another box with those missing votes in!?

 

[waza1960]

Hence my caution that Tony Abbott is hanging to power by a thread

I don't know what your smoking but a 35 seat majority is hardly a "thread"
And most of the Independent Senators IMO will support Abbott's mandate.

 

[Whiskers]

I don't know what your smoking but a 35 seat majority is hardly a "thread"

It is when you note that nationally the swing to the LNP is less than half the swing away from Labor.

Statistically, and pragmatically, if you look at the states and particular seats Labor lost, except for a few seats in Tas, the overwhelming swing was to minor parties.

Statistically again, and especially considering the number of narrow margin seats, a 1.9% swing against the LNP will see them gone.

Do you not see the sensitivity here... While Labor lost 4.5% which makes it hard, but not too difficult to get that back in one election, the LNP only needs a relatively minor backlash to either Labor or 'others' to loose office. hence my preoccupatuion with not putting a foot wrong and making the very most of every opportunity to build on support.

But as mentioned earlier and on other threads, there is potential LNP conflict looming on a couple of fronts.

Labor needs a swing to them of 4.5% to return the status quo.

Remembering, the golden rule that Governments tend to loose office rather than oppositions winning.

And most of the Independent Senators IMO will support Abbott's mandate.

How so? Have you studied their policy positions? I doubt they will recognise any mandate and bargain for their own cause which on face value I suspect goes pretty hard against the grain of Abbots core beliefs.

Abbott will need to win over at least 4 others, on present indications, to pass anything.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The polling place staff might be getting nervous, Palmer is very litigious, with deep pockets.

I would agree that Clive likes using lawyers, however I would challenge the latter comment.

It will be interesting to see his Parliamentary register of interests. Very, very, very interesting.

If I were the poor sod, I wouldn't have run for parliament.

gg

 

[drsmith]

Clive Palmer's lead has been reduced from 111 vote to 45 votes this morning although it's unclear from the article below what proportion of the last 450 votes to be counted that includes.

In the absence of a counting error, I suspect Clive has this in the bag.

Businessman Clive Palmer's lead over his LNP rival Ted O'Brien has shrunk to just 45 votes after he started the day 111 votes ahead.

The last ballot papers will be counted in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax today, but a winner is unlikely to be declared.

The Australian Electoral Commission said about 450 votes would be counted as well as any late postal votes that arrived before last night's deadline.

The commission will conduct an automatic recount if the margin is less than 100 votes.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-...ed-in-clive-palmer27s-bid-for-fairfax/4972790