2011 General ASX Market Discussion

[joea]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Hehe

The most accurate and insightful response in this thread thus far. Well done Tyson!

There really is no rhyme or reason. The market will do what it wants to do.

Hi.
Well I think Trader Girl is going to make a killing trading the SPI short.
joea

 

[Julia]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

There really is no rhyme or reason. The market will do what it wants to do.

You really don't think there's any basis for the current volatility?

 

[Nonchalant]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

You really don't think there's any basis for the current volatility?

Hi Julia

You have completely and utterly misconstrued what I've stated and the context in which it was stated. I don't mean to antagonise, but a quick glance at the thread title would allude to the fact that the discussion is based purely on movement in the market within the month of Oct. Therefore, my comments reflect the high degree of difficulty in any short term ( we're talking a day/days here) forecasting.

Oh, and yes, I'm well aware of exactly what's causing the current unpredictability in the market. The root cause of the turmoil is mired in political affiliations and persuasions. Greek debt, banks and other countries being exposed to said debt and mitigating said debt from contagion, are merely symptoms of a much larger and all encompassing problem. But I digress.

As to your question, I trust this explains whether I think there's any basis to current
market volatility.

 

[FreshTrader]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Hi.
Better still, will the passing of the "carbon tax" tomorrow morning initiate the first step in a final leg down to take out the low of 9/08/2011?
joe

Do you really think the passing of the CT will have much of an impact on the market tomorrow? You don't think it's ALREADY been factored into prices?

Just asking.

 

[FreshTrader]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

SPI 200 currently up 25.00 points.

 

[young-gun]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

SPI 200 currently up 25.00 points.

i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally nothing has really changed?!

i see economists getting up on business programs talking about "technical indicators and turning points". i was a technical trader, previously reliable indicators surely cannot be applied to current markets.

 

[FreshTrader]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally nothing has really changed?!

i see economists getting up on business programs talking about "technical indicators and turning points". i was a technical trader, previously reliable indicators surely cannot be applied to current markets.

What I find funny is that this whole rally was STARTED by a few words out of some guy's mouth. Mr Bernake owes himself credit for the initiation of this seemingly massive rally. IMO he started it, but the reason why we continue to rise strongly is unknown to me...

 

[Struzball]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally

Panic buying.

There has been massive resistance at 4300-4400 followed by significant falls since early August. What's changed? Nothing. There will most likely be a significant fall again as soon as those testing the resistance find it.

If that doesn't play out, well I guess we truly are in new territory and I'll welcome back the bull.

However fundamentally nothing big has actually collapsed yet, and current conditions will not favour those who were just scraping by prior to now. So either everybody will get very lucky, or they'll be burned like never before.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Looks to me like we have created a resistance level for ourselves here.

The indicators on the XAO don't look too bad - almost verging onto bullsish in my opinion.

It looks like a typical Friday to me though - void of volume; however selling pressure isn't as strong as I had expected it to be last night.

 

[willstor]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

So what's the view on today's ASX?

I'm bullish today (17.10.11) I have to say...not to say long term fundamentals are there, but for today I can only see things going in one direction.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

So what's the view on today's ASX?

I'm bullish today (17.10.11) I have to say...not to say long term fundamentals are there, but for today I can only see things going in one direction.

Hi Willstor,

Welcome to ASF

Please note that we are a very informative and analytical community, so the more analysis you provide the better. Simply saying you are bullish is notl ikely to get much response, but if you give reasons as to why, others will probably offer their own opinions.

Thanks

 

[Chasero]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Sold a tonne of shares today into strength. I am bearish this week.

Huge rally and only caught around 3 days of it. (sold half last week) That's good enough for me as I've reached my stop losses.

 

[sammy84]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

That's good enough for me as I've reached my stop losses.

Do you mean profit limit order?

 

[tech/a]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Do you mean profit limit order?

Could be that they flew through his initial stops.
Didn't want to take the loss.
These rises gave him a get out of jail
Free Card---so he's taken it!

Now whether thats a smart move or not??

 

[pixel]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Judging by the way that Index Options are distributed across the spectrum of strikes, I guess our XJO (ASX S&P Top 200) is at resistance and will pull back below 4250 by Thursday, October 20th.
Looking out into the next two months, the November target would be close to 4100, and only then do I expect the Christmas Rally to run back up into yhe low 4300's.

 

[sammy84]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Could be that they flew through his initial stops.
Didn't want to take the loss.
These rises gave him a get out of jail
Free Card---so he's taken it!

Now whether thats a smart move or not??

Haha. Thanks for the explanation. Wouldn't really call them stop losses then.

 

[willstor]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Finished up for today. I trade CFD's as a hobby mainly focusing on the ASX 200 index.
Made a couple of hundred dollars profit the last two days mainly by buying the dips.

It's all about Europe atm and whilst ANZ are probably correct that the chances of them finding a long term workable solution aren't huge, the bulls will have the advantage until the next stutter in the bail out process.

AUD Reserve Bank's Board October Minutes tomorrow are going to be very interesting - that could signal the end of the bull run.

 

[Chasero]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Do you mean profit limit order?

Yes that is what I mean't. I reached my profits so I have taken them (Plus too many resistance levels and tops forming on charts so too risky to hold bullish this week)

 

[Logique]

Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion

Another day, and... same old same old. Euro fears, Dow down, USD index up, gold down. Market index range upper level not breached, consequent bearish sentiment.

See link under, let's hope that explosive move is in the desired direction.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2011/10/18/Gold_prices_fall_674736.html
Gold prices fall

"..'With renewed concerns that Europe will not have any progress any time soon, you are seeing investors take profits on the stock markets and that spills over to the metal markets,' said Phillip Streible, a senior strategist with MF Global.

'The market has been eerily quiet for quite a long time and it's due for an explosive move.'.."

"..Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital, said there was a [gold] bearish double-top based on the two recent highs formed in late August and early September.."

 

[Joe Blow]

I will see how this thread goes during October and if it's popular I will start a new thread each month.

I have moved away from the idea that ASF should have a monthly general market discussion thread and have decided to see how we go making it an annual event.

I think a monthly thread would make the discussion a little more disjointed as new threads would have to have to be started each month, and it would also make it more difficult to refer back to previous discussion as quoting posts from previous months would not be quite so simple a task.

Please feel free to use this thread for all general ASX market discussion.