2009 vs. 1987 vs. 1929

[Prem]

Hey guys

I need a little help on a eco assignment

I have been searching everywhere for quite a while

and i cant seem to find statistics on the following

Global financial crisis impact on asx (09)

and i would like to comapre it to 1987 crash and the

great depression

Any info/ links ?

thanks in advance

 

[beamstas]

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html

 

[Prem]

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html

thanks for the quick reply

 

[Naked shorts]

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html

Looking at that chart really makes me wonder how we how exactly we bottomed out.

 

[drsmith]

Have we bottomed out ?

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composi...l?SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression

 

[drsmith]

The above chart puts 1987 into perspective.

 

[knocker]

catch a falling knife people lol

 

[Prem]

Where can i find average PE ratios at the peak just before the

3 crashes

thanks in advance

 

[drsmith]

Where can i find average PE ratios at the peak just before the 3 crashes

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-and-PE10-large.gif

2929-1932: 32.5-4.8
1966-1982: 24.1-6.6
2000-March 2009: 44.2-13.4

 

[oztrades]

what happened to the depression in 1890?

 

[michael_selway]

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html

Interesting charts

Thanks

MS

 

[moreld]

I found those dshort charts tainted by his market perspective. So I came up with my own tainted charts
http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/the-great-depression-vs-the-great-bubble/

In my post I link to Shiller's data which may also be of use.

Now I want to do the same for the Australian share market. Can someone please point me at a source for good long term data from the ASX. Monthly closing prices since 1900 would be wonderful.

TIA - Dean

 

[drsmith]

I found those dshort charts tainted by his market perspective.

In what sense ?

Are you saying he's fudged the numbers or just the location of major turning points ?

 

[moreld]

Take this chart as an example

What message do you see when you look at that? What message do you think dshort is trying to convey? When aligning charts it is possible to create almost whatever image you want. dshort chooses to present a negative view.

In this chart he has done it by aligning the 1929 crash's first small inflection point with a major trough from the current bear. I discussed it here in a beer addled kind of way http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/two-beers-down-i-should-know-better/

To help you see what I'm talking about, here is a chart of the 1929 crash.

Now why would anyone align hear market troughs using that blip? I can only see one answer and that's they've been drinking too much gin and want to bring us all down.

 

[Windza]

Not abundant in analysis or figures but I seem to feel better after looking at this (from the horses mouth):
http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/share_price_movements.pdf

 

[Wysiwyg]

Not abundant in analysis or figures but I seem to feel better after looking at this (from the horses mouth):
http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/share_price_movements.pdf

Yeah good one. Would like to see the XAO under 4000 one more time though. (please )

 

[Buckeroo]

Now why would anyone align hear market troughs using that blip? I can only see one answer and that's they've been drinking too much gin and want to bring us all down.

Quite simply my dear Watson, because of the fundamentals.

Yep, you can position lines on a graph to suit whatever your viewpoint is, but for any truth found in a graph, it has to also be aligned with current economic fundamentals.

So, is it sound fundamentals when this current bull market & the so called green shoots of recovery, are on the back of government stimulus to the point where there are number of major countries in the world close to default? And what happens when we remove the stimulus measures which we will have to do soon before hyperinflation takes hold?

We are living a lie, thinking we can fix our debts with more debt. Its only a matter of time before the house of cards falls.

Cheers

 

[Prem]

How has the GFC impacted on other markets other than asx?

 

[Prem]

is average debt/equity ratio relevant in comparing the different crashes?

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

How has the GFC impacted on other markets other than asx?

the charts posted in here are other markets aren't they?