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Frexit - The French Election and possible referendum

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CanOz

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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How is everyone trading the French Election? After the Brexit vote at least i have some idea how to research and trade an election, unfortunately i have to work until noonish.

How is everyone trading the news on the day?

Two main currencies to consider:

6E (Euro) - direct impact
-Sell off if Le Pen elected?

6J (Yen) - Risk off trade
-Rally if Le Pen elected?


Things to consider:
1.) voter turnout
2.) vote counted and results at market open
3.) gap open up/down
4.) where is the crowded trade

Looking forward to more discussion. Will come back as time permits.
 
CanOz said:
How is everyone trading the French Election? After the Brexit vote at least i have some idea how to research and trade an election, unfortunately i have to work until noonish.

How is everyone trading the news on the day?

Two main currencies to consider:

6E (Euro) - direct impact
-Sell off if Le Pen elected?

6J (Yen) - Risk off trade
-Rally if Le Pen elected?


Things to consider:
1.) voter turnout
2.) vote counted and results at market open
3.) gap open up/down
4.) where is the crowded trade

Looking forward to more discussion. Will come back as time permits.
Click to expand...
1 and 2 not on my radar at all and 4 dominates 3 . My MO trade normal patterns just be greedy at extremes due to explosive volatility , bigger ranges on smaller size , just another day for me
 
I'm not expecting the same impact as Brexit. Markets have been balancing so this may provide a reason to break one way or the other.

Last 2 big political events have been huge reversal moves - given my point above and Murphy's law if this thing does break I think going with it is the play.
 
My dacks are just a teensy bit on the short side. A sizeable gap is fairly typical of these events, the question of whether it is to the upside or downside and whether there is subsequent continuation or reversal, is another matter upon which I am reluctant to predict and shall simply be playing it as I see it on the day.
 
From what I've read and heard so far, the results are going to be partially counted by the time the markets open. I think its 7:00 am Brisbane time that the CME products open.

Hour by Hour
 
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Right oh, here's my 2 cents on the status of the yen and the euro from an auction market pov....

Two charts, both with a long term composite and a range profile.

Euro - path of least resistance is up, to the value area higher
Yen - path of least resistance is down towards the value area
 
My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing
 
qldfrog said:
My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing
Click to expand...

Yeah not expecting "THE market crash", i'm sure that will happen in time, as they always do....
 
expected results:80% participation ..as high as can be and LePen and Macron in second round,so Macron next president..
A socialist badly disguised, who will manage to have a communist asking to vote for him..an investment banker ....Smart guy
More of the same ahead..market can sleep easy, and France carry on its downward spiral smoothly
 
Looks like Trumps tax deal is a flop with no details on who'll pay for the cuts.....market doesn't like it....
 
CanOz said:
Looks like Trumps tax deal is a flop with no details on who'll pay for the cuts.....market doesn't like it....
Click to expand...
Yeah it looking the classic buy the rumour sell the news , the Orange Oracle is finding politics not as binary as business


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qldfrog said:
My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing
Click to expand...
History looks like repeating.
From ABC News
Macron with 27% of the vote and Le Pen with 24% will face off once again for the presidential runoffs.
All of the losing first round contenders have urged their supporters to back Macron, so Le Pen may end up the bridesmaid again.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
History looks like repeating.
From ABC News
Macron with 27% of the vote and Le Pen with 24% will face off once again for the presidential runoffs.
All of the losing first round contenders have urged their supporters to back Macron, so Le Pen may end up the bridesmaid again.
Mick
Click to expand...
This is a worldwide phenomenon.

Metropolitan vs Regional voters.

I believe you are correct. I've a few euros on Macron through a very reliable person in Calabria.

Here the minor parties regionally will provide a hung parliament, better for the regions, none of yer Rooarch nor Greenie rubbish from the Libs nor ALP.

gg
 
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