NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

Labor's NBN rollout policy,

https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/Labors_Positive_NBN_Policy.pdf

The substantive change from current is replacing ~2m FTTN with FTTP (19%) of the total rollout. HFC will remain.

To facilitate the above, Labor intends to renegotiate some of the 3.5m FTTN design contracts that are presently expected to be in place at June 30 2016. 1.3m FTTN construction contracts would however be honoured representing most of the 2016/17 FTTN build.

45%/83% of the final FTTN/B build (2035k/3745k of 4.5m) are projected to be RFS at June 30 2017/2018 respectively according to the current corporate plan. At that rate, this component of the rollout will be easily completed by June 30 2019. Under Labor's policy, this will slow to June 30 2022. Detailed costings are not provided however the delay may explain the peak funding change of $1bn. The above, delayed as it is only as good as it is if peak funding doesn't breach $57b. FTTP is assumed to cost $3,000pp excluding infrastructure leases, a reduction of 17% or $700 from the $3,700 corporate plan cost. That's made up of $450 from the skinny fibre trial and an additional $250 from unspecified cost efficiencies as the rollout progresses. That, if it's achievable, is still $1,400pp more than FTTN.

Capex is expected to be $3.4bn higher than the current plan. With funding constrained by the peak funding cap of $57bn ($1bn more than the current cap of $56bn), the 19% extra FTTP may be left dependent on positive cash flow from operating parts of the network to fund the increased capex. That possibly explains why the rollout profile has been delayed by as much as 3 years and doesn't inspire confidence that it's even financially deliverable.

It looks like a plan B when it became clear that FTTdp trials wouldn't be sufficiently advanced to offer a policy based on that for this election. That may have been deliverable with the $1bn extra on top of the $56bn peak funding for the above 19%.

On the rollout itself, the weekly progress report to June 2 shows 2,587,411 premises RFS, 44,589 short of the June 30 target of 2,632,000. At the present rate of progress, that should be passed with two weeks to spare.

 

[sptrawler]

Labor's NBN rollout policy,

https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/Labors_Positive_NBN_Policy.pdf

The substantive change from current is replacing ~2m FTTN with FTTP (19%) of the total rollout. HFC will remain.

To facilitate the above, Labor intends to renegotiate some of the 3.5m FTTN design contracts that are presently expected to be in place at June 30 2016. 1.3m FTTN construction contracts would however be honoured representing most of the 2016/17 FTTN build.

45%/83% of the final FTTN/B build (2035k/3745k of 4.5m) are projected to be RFS at June 30 2017/2018 respectively according to the current corporate plan. At that rate, this component of the rollout will be easily completed by June 30 2019. Under Labor's policy, this will slow to June 30 2022. Detailed costings are not provided however the delay may explain the peak funding change of $1bn. The above, delayed as it is only as good as it is if peak funding doesn't breach $57b. FTTP is assumed to cost $3,000pp excluding infrastructure leases, a reduction of 17% or $700 from the $3,700 corporate plan cost. That's made up of $450 from the skinny fibre trial and an additional $250 from unspecified cost efficiencies as the rollout progresses. That, if it's achievable, is still $1,400pp more than FTTN.

Capex is expected to be $3.4bn higher than the current plan. With funding constrained by the peak funding cap of $57bn ($1bn more than the current cap of $56bn), the 19% extra FTTP may be left dependent on positive cash flow from operating parts of the network to fund the increased capex. That possibly explains why the rollout profile has been delayed by as much as 3 years and doesn't inspire confidence that it's even financially deliverable.

It looks like a plan B when it became clear that FTTdp trials wouldn't be sufficiently advanced to offer a policy based on that for this election. That may have been deliverable with the $1bn extra on top of the $56bn peak funding for the above 19%.

On the rollout itself, the weekly progress report to June 2 shows 2,587,411 premises RFS, 44,589 short of the June 30 target of 2,632,000. At the present rate of progress, that should be passed with two weeks to spare.

Doc, what is the current take up of the NBN? I have a place in Mandurah, that has a fibre optic cable sitting in space doing nothing.

What's funny is the place next door is the same and the one next to that also.
The only two other people I know really well in Mandurah, one has wireless and doesn't want a land line, so he isn't connected.
The other is also wireless, so isn't interested.

I guess what I'm saying, is how many are actually connecting up, whether it is bling speed or slow speed?

I think Bill is sniffing Kev's brain fart, not many give a $hit. IMO

The only people who care about the internet, apart from business, are young people on facebook and they use their phone.

Labor really stuffed up, by not rolling it out to business and CBD's first, rather than fringe dwellers.

 

[drsmith]

Doc, what is the current take up of the NBN? I have a place in Mandurah, that has a fibre optic cable sitting in space doing nothing.

Premises passed and premises activated for various categories are provided in the weekly progress report. To June 2 is as follows,

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam...ollout-metrics/nbn-rollout-metrics-020616.pdf

In Brownfields, almost half the premises passed are connected but there's no distinction between FTTP and FTTN. I'd imagine that a greater proportion of FTTP would be activated relative to FTTN due to the later commencement of FTTN.

 

[drsmith]

Labor's NBN rollout policy,

https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/Labors_Positive_NBN_Policy.pdf

The substantive change from current is replacing ~2m FTTN with FTTP (19%) of the total rollout. HFC will remain.

To facilitate the above, Labor intends to renegotiate some of the 3.5m FTTN design contracts that are presently expected to be in place at June 30 2016. 1.3m FTTN construction contracts would however be honoured representing most of the 2016/17 FTTN build.

45%/83% of the final FTTN/B build (2035k/3745k of 4.5m) are projected to be RFS at June 30 2017/2018 respectively according to the current corporate plan. At that rate, this component of the rollout will be easily completed by June 30 2019. Under Labor's policy, this will slow to June 30 2022.

More on the above,

So Clare is not disputing the idea of FttN being completed by NBN's 2020 deadline -- he is proposing to delay the fixed line rollout by two years in exchange for fibre.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/the-dilemma-at-the-heart-of-labors-nbn-policy/

On the rollout itself, the weekly progress report to June 2 shows 2,587,411 premises RFS, 44,589 short of the June 30 target of 2,632,000. At the present rate of progress, that should be passed with two weeks to spare.

As at June 9, overall rollout/brownfields RFS is 2,618,102/1,550,576 premises respectively, 13,898/29,422 short of respective June 30 targets.

Brownfields FTTP/N over the past 7 weeks has progressed at an average rate of ~26k per week. While short of internal targets, the June 30 publically published target of 1,580k will be exceeded by ~50k at June 30 at this rate. This needs to average ~32k per week over the next 55 weeks to meet the June 30 2017 corporate plan target of 3,305k.

 

[drsmith]

If the following is correct, FTTN is going to have a big week of premises RFS in the weekly update ending June 23.

http://www.finder.com.au/nbn-tracker/recent/copper

June 17 tallies to 52,200.

The update for the week to June 16 however will be somewhat leaner at 15,600.

Note the above is for FTTN only and not brownfields as a whole. FTTB on the above pages looks to me like it's listed on a separate page under High Value Build.

 

[Tisme]

Playing devils advocate to test one's resolve:

https://delimiter.com.au/2016/06/14/devils-advocate-gaping-holes-labors-new-nbn-policy/

 

[Tisme]

if you have a twitter account

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/742168694172721153

 

[So_Cynical]

Fact check: Has Australia's internet speed dropped from 30th to 60th in the world under the Coalition?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-21/fact-check-australias-internet-speed-rank/7509352

Yes - yes it has, ABC is biased of course.

----------------

Interestingly our average speed has increased under the Noalition while the rest of the developed world has gone past us like we were standing still.

The reports show Australia's average peak connection speed of 30.1 megabits per second ranked 30th in the world in the quarter ending in September 2013, the month the Coalition took office.

The most recent report available at the time the claim was made shows Australia's average peak connection speed of 39.3 mbps ranked 60th in the world in the quarter ending in December 2015.

 

[drsmith]

For anyone looking to easily see when the rollout is occurring in their area, the Department of Communications and Arts publishes rollout briefs by electorate.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=911042

I don't know how often this updated but the above is as at May 30 2016.

 

[Tisme]

Finder gives status of NBN by address, although it appears NBN are, generally, no longer releasing information about build prep status, which is rather odd.


e.g.

http://www.finder.com.au/nbn-tracker/rollout/list/technology/mtm/status/preparation

 

[Tisme]

Tweets an hour or less ago by opinion leaders

44m
Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01
The hard fact is that, by delivering a 3rd rate NBN, Abbott and Turnbull have blighted the lives of generations to come. Culpable folly.

Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01
Sackable ?? There should be rioting in the streets. Fact is that Turnbull has right royally stuffed the NBN.


Quentin Dempster‏ @QuentinDempster
Fact Check confirms Australia is disadvantaged by broadband capacity. Is this a sackable offence? (link: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-21/fact-check-australias-internet-speed-rank/7509352) abc.net.au/news/2016-06-2… via @abcfactcheck

Glenn asks the question

Glenn Lazarus‏ @SenatorLazarus
Mr Turnbull why is Coalition advertising NBN jobs overseas when so many people including tradies are unemployed/desperate for work? #qanda

8457

wonder what happened with this:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ions-investigation-finds-20160614-gpj809.html

 

[Tisme]

Choice article about NBN and how quickly the budget blew out (once the snouts in the trough old boys . like astro fizzacists got their hooks into it):

https://www.choice.com.au/electroni...g-to-the-internet/articles/nbn-rollout-update

 

[Tisme]

Another bloke who doesn't have a clue chiming in with his communist manifesto:

The founding chief executive of NBN Co, Mike Quigley, has intervened in the last two weeks of the federal election, slamming the Coalition for making a “huge miscalculation” with the network’s use of copper access technologies.]

“Forty-five billion is still the correct peak funding cost if the project (FTTP) had been allowed to continue," he said.

“To believe that the original FttP deployment would have required a peak funding of somewhere between $64bn and $94bn you have to make totally unrealistic assumptions about take-up rates and ARPUs, assumptions that have proven to be wrong.

“You have to distort per premise capex numbers, and finally you have to ignore the improvements in technology that are driving down FttP costs, increasing productivity and reducing FttP build times everywhere else in the world.

“Given the complexity of all of this information it is little wonder that it is very difficult for the average person, or even the media, to sort out fact from fiction concerning the peak funding costs for the original FttP-based NBN.

“But what is clear is that every forecast regarding the NBN that the Coalition has made, for which there is now data, whether for their own MTM or for the original FTTP plan - every one of them has been wrong.”

http://www.itwire.com/it-industry-n...ction-to-slam-coalition’s-broadband-plan.html

 

[SirRumpole]

Another bloke who doesn't have a clue chiming in with his communist manifesto:

Fabians everywhere .

Mal has stuffed the NBN and everyone knows it.

30th to 60th place in internet speeds under the Libs. It's humiliating for the country and the Coalition.

If we want a modern NBN , don't vote Liberal.

 

[noco]

I had NBN connected to my house last Monday and I cannot distinguish any difference to ADSL....

 

[Tisme]

I had NBN connected to my house last Monday and I cannot distinguish any difference to ADSL....

That's proof in itself of the failure to launch. Do you know how your connection is configured? e.g. fibre to copper to pit to copper to home to copper or do you have fibre to the premises(home) and what speed did you opt for?

 

[Tisme]

Fabians everywhere .

Mal has stuffed the NBN and everyone knows it.

30th to 60th place in internet speeds under the Libs. It's humiliating for the country and the Coalition.

If we want a modern NBN , don't vote Liberal.

I'm not sure the NBN will be retrievable. It's like we didn't learn from the days of states and railways, where cheap dictated the gauge and strength of the systems and the incompatibility between long haul freight between state borders. Trains had to stop at marshalling yards and have their bogies changed FFS

Back in the 70s Gough tried to nationalise the interstate rail transport to standardise cross country rail, but as usual is was a communist plot that had to be unscrambled by the personal freedom loving Libs..... eventually of course commonsense won out..kinda.

 

[noco]

That's proof in itself of the failure to launch. Do you know how your connection is configured? e.g. fibre to copper to pit to copper to home to copper or do you have fibre to the premises(home) and what speed did you opt for?

I have FTTP.

I will have to check for the speed and get back to you.

I am happy with the current speed....It is plenty for my use.

 

[Tisme]

I have FTTP.

I will have to check for the speed and get back to you.

I am happy with the current speed....It is plenty for my use.

Thanks for that. A friend of mine signed up to 50 megs FTTP and teased me endlessly about my then mere 30 megs cable speed (he's a LNP party faithful and hosted our previous Canberra boss on a few occasions) he loves it and is considering a faster throughput to keep pace with his increased use of features. I'm going to be particularly jealous when ultraHD starts streaming..... my current 20meg ADSL can't handle Stan high res without stalling and Netflix kicks down to medium as well.

 

[drsmith]

The weekly progress report to June 16 shows that the rollout has now passed 2,642,779 premises RFS. This surpasses the June 30 2016 target of 2,632k as set out in last year's corporate plan.