NBN Rollout Scrapped

[NBNMyths]

That's not the bit to which I refer but frankly, you're not going to be taken seriously in any forum where you present commentary as your own and then attempt to blame someone else when it turns out to be wrong.

What on earth are you talking about? I pasted entire sections from an article. You're the one who can't distinguish a quote from a Journo's introduction to it. Do we presume that you agree with every part of every piece of text you have ever linked to or pasted in this thread, simply because you pasted it?

I have never said wireless is an alternative. Ever. And the evidence I posted earlier backs that up. Your attempts at strawmanning and diversion are impressive, young one, but the facts remain that the vast majority of qualified people consider the MTM to be a dogs breakfast. One which is rapidly going off in the sun.

Since the election, the cost has almost doubled, even though the FTTP has shrunk. The rollout time has increased by 200%. The FTTN trial is delayed, with no reason given. There are secret reports which are damning of the HFC and copper condition. The minister is oblivious. The only parts of the NBN that are still on time and budget since 2013 are the bits Labor started - The FTTP, Wireless and Satellite.

 

[So_Cynical]

Our data consumption continues to double every 12 months. There is no sign of the growth slowdown predicted by Mal et al. Remember Turnbull told us just 5 years ago that we didn't need more than 12Mbps.

I have shared a 2 bedroom unit with the same person for the last 6 years, in that time we have gone from a 30 gig 1.5 Mbps DSL1 plan to 25 Mbps 250 gig NBN fibre, we generally don't watch TV anymore, everything is online...i remember watching Malcolm give that "we didn't need more than 12 Mbps" presentation and thinking to myself that he was foolish to be saying such things.

He should've been smarter than that, Abbott made him look like a fool...he should've known better than to take the Communications minister job.

 

[drsmith]

From drsmith circa 2012....for insight... and you want to be taken seriously???

If in going back that far you're suggesting that everything I've said since that time has come to pass, you're possibly being a little generous but I thank you for the compliment in any case.

 

[Tisme]

I have shared a 2 bedroom unit with the same person for the last 6 years, in that time we have gone from a 30 gig 1.5 Mbps DSL1 plan to 25 Mbps 250 gig NBN fibre, we generally don't watch TV anymore, everything is online...i remember watching Malcolm give that "we didn't need more than 12 Mbps" presentation and thinking to myself that he was foolish to be saying such things.

He should've been smarter than that, Abbott made him look like a fool...he should've known better than to take the Communications minister job.

Yes, although I lost my 30 Mbps connection when I moved earlier this year, I hate to think what I'd have to watch without the 19 Mbps, non rimmed ADSL (which is like a dog in comparison to the previous cable btw, but just enough to stream).

Think of Rumpole and his metered connection!!!!!

 

[NBNMyths]

Woohoo!

The MTM now has 1,000 customers connected to FTTN.

In October last year, the plan was to have 244,500 by October 2015. So they're only 243,500 (or 99.6%) behind target. Top effort Bill, Mal et al. It doesn't come much closer than that.

 

[NBNMyths]

Using NBN Co's own costings, an analysis of FTTP Vs FTTN has found it would only take ~6 years before its initial rollout savings are overtaken by FTTN's $220/year higher running costs and $10/month lower revenue.

So not only are we getting a greatly inferior network, but we're getting one that will cost more as well. Gee, I wonder who could have seen that one coming.

https://delimiter.com.au/2016/01/04...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Tisme]

. Gee, I wonder who could have seen that one coming.

I think those in the industry could see the sham from the onset. The incredulous thing for me is trying to quantify how supposedly intelligent people did and still do defend the Claytons system. In twenty years time when the next gen comms comes along I predict those same people who slavishly defend the Abbott/Turnbull mess will crow about how it was a good thing we didn't waste money on NBN MKI.

I feel the anxiety for those who don't really understand the technology they denigrate or espouse. At least in the old days you could tell the magazine PC experts because they used big words (fluffy dice horsepower) to mask their inability to grasp the inner workings, these days you don't know who they are cutting and pasting, there's just so much plagiarism around.

 

[drsmith]

https://delimiter.com.au/2016/01/04...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I have reviewed the author's actual article and the calculations therein and the data from which it was sourced.

Author's article,

http://valman.blogspot.com.au/2015/12/fttp-vs-fttn-when-is-spending-4400.html

Data source,

https://delimiter.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Optus-HFC.pdf

His calculations are based on the assumption that revenue and opex from the table in the data source above represent recurrent annual projections. It looks bad for FTTN relative to FTTP due to the large relative difference in margin (revenue - opex) projected over time. The purpose of the table however seems to be to determine peak funding relativities between the options so it's not necessarily the case that the revenue and opex numbers are recurrent annual as he assumes.

He may have been influenced by the 1yr $275m caption under the FTTP revenue. Strangely though, he has extrapolated that period to FTTN revenue and opex even though the revenue caption there is 1.3yr. Opex figures contain no caption so it's difficult to know specifically what period they cover. They are also complicated by Telstra lease payments (noted at bottom of table). Another consideration for revenue is also take up lag between service availability and take up rate. This is unlikely to be steady state from the outset.

One cannot therefore assume with any confidence that revenue and opex are recurrent annual figures from the information provided as he has done. Other issues with his analysis include the number of premises for the per-premise calculations (350k or 470k) and time value of money but these may be secondary relative to the above.

Woohoo!

The MTM now has 1,000 customers connected to FTTN.

In October last year, the plan was to have 244,500 by October 2015. So they're only 243,500 (or 99.6%) behind target. Top effort Bill, Mal et al. It doesn't come much closer than that.

You may wish to review the two linked articles from the above more carefully than when you posted the above. If you do, you'll note the numbers represent two different things.

 

[NBNMyths]

Surprise, surprise. FTTN is already falling over. Insufficient capacity at the node is dropping "100Mbps" connections down to <4Mps at peak times. https://delimiter.com.au/2016/02/09/nbn-gridlock-fttn-taken-down/

Now while this is certainly a fixable problem (increasing capacity from each node back to the POI), that upgrade comes at a cost. And if the capability is already showing such massive degradation, with only a few of the maximum 135 subscribers active on the node, then it would appear that the nodes are enormously under-resourced, and will need an upgrade.

How much will this increase the FTTN cost, and what bearing will it have on the already tenuous claim that FTTN is cheaper than FTTP?

Once again, I'm reminded of all those people who assured us that the 'grown ups are now in charge' and they'll run the project properly. Even as their FTTN stumbles from one problem to the next, and Labor's FTTP sections continue to experience smooth sailing.

 

[Tisme]

Once again, I'm reminded of all those people who assured us that the 'grown ups are now in charge' and they'll run the project properly. Even as their FTTN stumbles from one problem to the next, and Labor's FTTP sections continue to experience smooth sailing.

Yeah but it's Bill Shorten and ABC bias that is causing the problem. You need to get with the program and pick a political side if we are ever going to get the NBN active.

 

[drsmith]

Senate Estimates on the above as reported on Computerworld,

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/593701/nbn-quizzed-over-fttn-complaints/

In short,

In some cases it could be related to an end user’s in-home network, the backhaul provisioning of a retail service provider or the capacity (CVC) being purchased at an NBN Point of Interconnect by an RSP, the CEO said.

“We evaluated and inspected every complaint on this to see because this is so important for us to understand if in fact the technology cannot deliver the speeds that we need to, and we did not find one case where fibre to the node technology was a factor in those speed complaints that were coming forward.”

However the CEO said that in some cases assessed by NBN the speed issue was linked to an under-provisioning of capacity at a Point of Interconnect.

 

[DB008]

I think that for very large infrastructure projects of any kind that will take more than say, 5 years to complete, all 3 parties (ALP/Libs/Greens) should be involved and come to some sort of agreement be made before starting the project.

If Labor get back in, plans will change again and it will inevitability cost more money and take more time to complete this project.

 

[Tisme]

I think that for very large infrastructure projects of any kind that will take more than say, 5 years to complete, all 3 parties (ALP/Libs/Greens) should be involved and come to some sort of agreement be made before starting the project.

If Labor get back in, plans will change again and it will inevitability cost more money and take more time to complete this project.

Yep every incoming govt has to put its smell on anything worthwhile and act like its their idea = juvenile behaviour.

 

[DB008]

l did a search on 5G on ASF, but way too much came up.

Anyways, NBNMyths said that 5G was a pipe-dream...

Telstra to launch 5G network tests​

AUSTRALIA’S Commonwealth Games will not just be a speed test for athletes but for smartphones, as Telstra today revealed it would use the Gold Coast 2018 Games to test its next-generation 5G network.

The new network could offer speeds as high as 20 gigabits per second, theoretically able to deliver three series of Games of Thrones in less than one second.

The country’s biggest telecommunications carrier revealed its 5G plans before Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, also revealing plans to launch a high-speed mobile modem this year.

Telstra networks group managing director Mike Wright said the telco aimed to deliver its 5G network by 2020, and the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games had been chosen as “a great way to focus energy” on delivering a significantly faster mobile network with partner Ericsson.

The trials may not necessarily involve finished smartphones, however, as manufacturers might not yet be ready for the technology.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/telstra-to-launch-5g-network-tests/news-story/094565a784c895c6d3dcb4fb4a893e6d​

 

[NBNMyths]

l did a search on 5G on ASF, but way too much came up.

Anyways, NBNMyths said that 5G was a pipe-dream...

Telstra to launch 5G network tests​

http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/telstra-to-launch-5g-network-tests/news-story/094565a784c895c6d3dcb4fb4a893e6d​

Ahh.... no. I never said 5G was a pipe dream. Of course there will be 5G. And 6G, 7G, 8G, 9G...until we run out of Gs.

What I said was that 5G will not be a viable replacement for a fixed network. And it won't. Too slow (once many people are connected), and too expensive.

Telstra's real-world 4G speeds dropped by 50% between 2014-2015, as more users connected. The price is 20x higher than fixed line (GB for GB), and hasn't fallen to any great extent. By the time 5G hits the street it will be required just to keep the networks from collapsing under the data strain being imposed on 4G.

Looking at the latest data from the ABS, it's clear that there is still no sign of a move away from fixed data, despite what all the fanbois said when 4G was launched. In fact, fixed line volume growth is massively in front of mobile:

 

[SirRumpole]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-01/manning-what-went-wrong-with-the-nbn/7210408

 

[Monkey C Doo]

Ahh.... no. I never said 5G was a pipe dream. Of course there will be 5G. And 6G, 7G, 8G, 9G...until we run out of Gs.

What I said was that 5G will not be a viable replacement for a fixed network. And it won't. Too slow (once many people are connected), and too expensive.

Telstra's real-world 4G speeds dropped by 50% between 2014-2015, as more users connected. The price is 20x higher than fixed line (GB for GB), and hasn't fallen to any great extent. By the time 5G hits the street it will be required just to keep the networks from collapsing under the data strain being imposed on 4G.

Looking at the latest data from the ABS, it's clear that there is still no sign of a move away from fixed data, despite what all the fanbois said when 4G was launched. In fact, fixed line volume growth is massively in front of mobile:

View attachment 65958

Yeah but...
I'm a heavy user of both mobile and fixed line data

Mobile data when i'm working on the road doing important stuff
Fixed line when I'm chilling at home and want to download the entire Game of thrones series.

Fixed line is awesome but it's all just wank - Download just one pissy single Gig of documents, data whatever and see how long it take to analyse said info....... I'll see you next year.
Fixed lines main claim to fame is just for watching movies and stuff.

If the government / corporations can come up with a way to block dodgy movie downloads then the whole NBN reasons for existence is moot. ( they won't though as there is heaps more money selling bandwidth than selling actual product )

I just got a new work phone, samsung something with LTE data ( ??? ) I hooked it up to download Bush tucker man and Billions. 5 min's later it was all done over the wireless and my boss is now on my **** over the $1200 excess Data bill FFS. ( forgot about the torrent 'till next day ) He can get stuffed though.

If mobile ever catches up to or comes even comes remotely close to fixed line pricing - Who would bother with copper? It's not needed in the real word (excluding valid dodgy entertainment reasons) With LTE speed isn't an issue. It's like microwaving Baked beans - who cares if they take 2.4 seconds as opposed to 1.2 sec's, It's the same.

 

[NBNMyths]

Yeah but...
I'm a heavy user of both mobile and fixed line data

Mobile data when i'm working on the road doing important stuff
Fixed line when I'm chilling at home and want to download the entire Game of thrones series.

Fixed line is awesome but it's all just wank - Download just one pissy single Gig of documents, data whatever and see how long it take to analyse said info....... I'll see you next year.
Fixed lines main claim to fame is just for watching movies and stuff.

If the government / corporations can come up with a way to block dodgy movie downloads then the whole NBN reasons for existence is moot. ( they won't though as there is heaps more money selling bandwidth than selling actual product )

I just got a new work phone, samsung something with LTE data ( ??? ) I hooked it up to download Bush tucker man and Billions. 5 min's later it was all done over the wireless and my boss is now on my **** over the $1200 excess Data bill FFS. ( forgot about the torrent 'till next day ) He can get stuffed though.

If mobile ever catches up to or comes even comes remotely close to fixed line pricing - Who would bother with copper? It's not needed in the real word (excluding valid dodgy entertainment reasons) With LTE speed isn't an issue. It's like microwaving Baked beans - who cares if they take 2.4 seconds as opposed to 1.2 sec's, It's the same.

LTE is another name for 4G.

I've always said that the two techs are complementary, not competitive. We need both.

Wireless is expensive for two reasons:
- It's costly to build, operate and upgrade.
- Usage charges are deliberately high to restrict the usage.

In order to keep the speed reasonable they have to restrict usage, because wireless is a shared medium. The restrict it by making it expensive. All else being equal, every time you double the amount of data being carried on a cell, you halve the speed that data can be sent/received by each user. Real world 4G speeds have already halved since it was introduced, because more users have connected to the network.

You say that LTE speed is fine. And it is. But would you be happy with 1/30th (3%) of your current speed? Because that's roughly what you'd get if 50% of current fixed line data was moved across to mobile networks. And fixed line data volume is doubling every 2 years. So 24 months later, your mobile speed would be 1.5% of current.


The biggest single user of bandwidth in the US is Netflix. So legal entertainment, not illegal. Blocking torrent sites would have no effect on volume, it would just move it from illegal to legal traffic.

Traditional broadcast and pay TV will gradually disappear, and people with watch what they want, when they want. And the more they do that, the more viable fixed line networks become. The more income they generate. You can already see it happening.

 

[drsmith]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-01/manning-what-went-wrong-with-the-nbn/7210408

It would help if journalists such as the above reconciled that leaked Scale-the-Deployment-Program document with other information publically available to understand it in context.

Firstly, the leaked report doesn't cover the full FTTN rollout and secondly, the targets in that report do not match publically made rollout forecasts. They are more aggressive suggesting a contingency between the two for issues that may (and obviously do) arise.

As for how things are actually going with the brownfields fixed line rollout relative to the corporate plan from last year, the weekly rollout updates will be the figures to watch.

In that, 1,580k brownfields are forecast to be ready for service (RFS) by June 30 this year. That consists of 1080k FTTP and 500k FTTN. As at March 3, that sits at 1,263k and thus needs to progress at an average rate of ~19k per week over the remaining 17 weeks to June 30 to meet the target. The average over the past 5 weeks has been ~33k.

Note in the above that NBN now include FTTB as a subset of FTTN.

 

[NBNMyths]

Clearly, there are some very unhappy campers working down at NBN Co. The endless stream of leaked documents is pretty clear evidence that the staff at the company absolutely hate FTTN.

The latest leak shows that 5 dropouts per day of FTTN is considered acceptable!

Also, they won't even come out and check a fault if you don't have an 'approved' modem, but they also won't release a list of 'approved' modems! So how are you supposed to know when you buy one?

Lucky we're in the middle of an ideas boom. Maybe someone will have the idea to scrap the obsolete crap and get back to the real NBN.


http://blog.jxeeno.com/dropouts-acceptable-on-nbn-new-fttn-network/