AIO - Asciano Limited
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Julia
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Re: AIO - Asciano
I read presumably the same predictions for 2010 report.
The chart is little better than flat, they have a fair bit of debt and pay no dividend. I wouldn't be buying unless there's a decided improvement.
I read presumably the same predictions for 2010 report.
The chart is little better than flat, they have a fair bit of debt and pay no dividend. I wouldn't be buying unless there's a decided improvement.
Re: AIO - Asciano
Isn't it funny how different people have different perceptions due to the methods they use.
I think it is trending nicely having just broken up from a consolidation period and am currently long and may well add another position shortly if I get another buy signal.
Isn't it funny how different people have different perceptions due to the methods they use.
I think it is trending nicely having just broken up from a consolidation period and am currently long and may well add another position shortly if I get another buy signal.
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Re: AIO - Asciano
I just SOLD the lot on Friday. Things usually ski-rocket after I do that.
Good luck people! Intermodal train loads are not full and the proof is in watching them go past on the main line. Coal trains are full, plentiful and there seems to be no let-up in that division.
Soon the above rail divisions will be split. Now we have (Auto-Bulk-General) (Intermodal) (Coal) - what happens to the shares in that case will be very interesting.
I just SOLD the lot on Friday. Things usually ski-rocket after I do that.
Good luck people! Intermodal train loads are not full and the proof is in watching them go past on the main line. Coal trains are full, plentiful and there seems to be no let-up in that division.
Soon the above rail divisions will be split. Now we have (Auto-Bulk-General) (Intermodal) (Coal) - what happens to the shares in that case will be very interesting.
skc
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Thread's been quiet for a while.
A very clear line of resistance at $1.72/$1.725. Range absolutely dried up in the last 2 weeks. A strong break probably offer a chance to test $1.9, support at $1.6 needs to hold for the uptrend to be in tact.
Results due out 25 Aug. Any movement before that might foretell something.
Thread's been quiet for a while.
A very clear line of resistance at $1.72/$1.725. Range absolutely dried up in the last 2 weeks. A strong break probably offer a chance to test $1.9, support at $1.6 needs to hold for the uptrend to be in tact.
Results due out 25 Aug. Any movement before that might foretell something.
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Re: AIO - Asciano
It seems, after months of delays and no agreement, the new employee EA at Pacific National will be voted upon and will be accepted by staff. Included are bonus payments for damage free performance by terminal staff and fuel use reduction bonuses for train crews. No real losses for staff in the detail and clear performance bonuses indicate the company is starting to think of their employees as real people, so moral and operational costs will improve!
It seems, after months of delays and no agreement, the new employee EA at Pacific National will be voted upon and will be accepted by staff. Included are bonus payments for damage free performance by terminal staff and fuel use reduction bonuses for train crews. No real losses for staff in the detail and clear performance bonuses indicate the company is starting to think of their employees as real people, so moral and operational costs will improve!
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Asciano Group has secured a 10 year coal haulage contract with Centennial Coal worth about $550 million.
Interesting. Didn't move the SP much at all. More or less range bound since Aug 09. Middle range at the moment. A stock to watch if it drops to 1.50ish (the low range).
Stock Vultures Assemble!
Asciano Group has secured a 10 year coal haulage contract with Centennial Coal worth about $550 million.
Interesting. Didn't move the SP much at all. More or less range bound since Aug 09. Middle range at the moment. A stock to watch if it drops to 1.50ish (the low range).
Stock Vultures Assemble!
Re: AIO - Asciano
With all the advertising going for the QRN float, AIO will be effected, I feel. All of a sudden the public, living in cities, are now aware of a Rail Freight company. There was no AIO advertising before and the majority of the public would say "What is an AIO?" if the name was mentioned. Perhaps this QRN sale will drop AIO prices for a while, then as the retail investors realise there is a 100% better established competitor that has done all the carving to their business already - AIO, is now operating far more efficiently than QRN for many years to come. So it could be a good thing - but not now. I'm sitting on the fence to watch.
With all the advertising going for the QRN float, AIO will be effected, I feel. All of a sudden the public, living in cities, are now aware of a Rail Freight company. There was no AIO advertising before and the majority of the public would say "What is an AIO?" if the name was mentioned. Perhaps this QRN sale will drop AIO prices for a while, then as the retail investors realise there is a 100% better established competitor that has done all the carving to their business already - AIO, is now operating far more efficiently than QRN for many years to come. So it could be a good thing - but not now. I'm sitting on the fence to watch.
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Just what I have been thinking all day....
Well it started with a question, Who are QR competitors?
Ahh pacific national... who are they,
Oh owned by AIO
Who are THEY?
oh and when i hit up Pacifics national website i did LOL...
Over 3 years since an update.. and even then it took them 4 months to post the news.....
Just what I have been thinking all day....
Well it started with a question, Who are QR competitors?
Ahh pacific national... who are they,
Oh owned by AIO
Who are THEY?
oh and when i hit up Pacifics national website i did LOL...
Over 3 years since an update.. and even then it took them 4 months to post the news.....
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Re: AIO - Asciano
can not get the share price on comsec, is it on trading halt?
was like that this week end already
can not get the share price on comsec, is it on trading halt?
was like that this week end already
skc
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Some corporatisation process - consolidation of various entities into a less complicated structure - or something like that.
See here http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101104/pdf/31tpb0jr34qj6t.pdf
Some corporatisation process - consolidation of various entities into a less complicated structure - or something like that.
See here http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101104/pdf/31tpb0jr34qj6t.pdf
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Re: AIO - Asciano
thanks for that!!
So AIODA in the interim nfor those as me who did not get the details right
Cheers
thanks for that!!
So AIODA in the interim nfor those as me who did not get the details right
Cheers
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Bid has been recommended by the AIO board.
Details: AIO shareholders to recieve $6.94 in cash plus 0.0387 shares in BIP for every AIO share. The cash component to be reduced by any potential dividend for AIO, currently they are talking about a 90c fully franked dividend.
Still some hurdles to get around, such as the FIRB - hence the market is discounting the takeover.
Cash $6.94
+Franking Credits $0.38
+ 0.0387 BIP shares = US$40.53x0.737 = ~AUD$55x0.0387=$2.13
=$9.45.
AIO currently trading at $8.72, discount is ~8.4%.
I also note that later this month BIP pays a 53c dividend, however the SP may recover this in time for the December implementation. The cash component is the monster share here, so BIP will have to fall pretty substantially to have a significant affect on the returns to AIO shareholders in the event of a successful takeover.
Bid has been recommended by the AIO board.
Details: AIO shareholders to recieve $6.94 in cash plus 0.0387 shares in BIP for every AIO share. The cash component to be reduced by any potential dividend for AIO, currently they are talking about a 90c fully franked dividend.
Still some hurdles to get around, such as the FIRB - hence the market is discounting the takeover.
Cash $6.94
+Franking Credits $0.38
+ 0.0387 BIP shares = US$40.53x0.737 = ~AUD$55x0.0387=$2.13
=$9.45.
AIO currently trading at $8.72, discount is ~8.4%.
I also note that later this month BIP pays a 53c dividend, however the SP may recover this in time for the December implementation. The cash component is the monster share here, so BIP will have to fall pretty substantially to have a significant affect on the returns to AIO shareholders in the event of a successful takeover.
skc
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Here's an interesting situation developing...
This is really Wall Street (The Movie) type of stuff. Takeover battles, after market raids, blocking stakes...
20% of AIO is worth some $1.7B which is just shy of QUB's market cap of $2.3B. So QUB is probably not buying it just for the sake of blocking Brookfield's bid. They clearly want a say in the carve up of AIO. There are so many scenarios that this could play out... I will need to have a good think and get prepared for tomorrow's action.
At first glance I can't even decide whether AIO and QUB should go up or down tomorrow...
Here's an interesting situation developing...
This is really Wall Street (The Movie) type of stuff. Takeover battles, after market raids, blocking stakes...
20% of AIO is worth some $1.7B which is just shy of QUB's market cap of $2.3B. So QUB is probably not buying it just for the sake of blocking Brookfield's bid. They clearly want a say in the carve up of AIO. There are so many scenarios that this could play out... I will need to have a good think and get prepared for tomorrow's action.
At first glance I can't even decide whether AIO and QUB should go up or down tomorrow...
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Just refreshing everyone's memories:
Solomon Lew and his DJS hijack. Result: got away what he wanted.
TPM and its 19.99% stake of AMM, tried to block out AMM/VOC merger. Result: didn't end up blocking the AMM/VOC merger.
MIN and its 13% stake of AQA, tried to talk a deal with Baosteel on its own version of Pilbara project. Result: Baosteel threatened to walk off, MIN ended up selling out at loss
The AIO/QUB saga sounds more or less like the MIN/AQA, except this time there is much more at stake, for both QUB and Brookfield.
The good news, all 3 takeovers happened eventually.
The bad news, AIO might drop tomorrow!
Just refreshing everyone's memories:
Solomon Lew and his DJS hijack. Result: got away what he wanted.
TPM and its 19.99% stake of AMM, tried to block out AMM/VOC merger. Result: didn't end up blocking the AMM/VOC merger.
MIN and its 13% stake of AQA, tried to talk a deal with Baosteel on its own version of Pilbara project. Result: Baosteel threatened to walk off, MIN ended up selling out at loss
The AIO/QUB saga sounds more or less like the MIN/AQA, except this time there is much more at stake, for both QUB and Brookfield.
The good news, all 3 takeovers happened eventually.
The bad news, AIO might drop tomorrow!
skc
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Thanks for a great list to help me frame my thinking. There are similarities and there are differences. By way of background, the AFR reports that
If QUB doesn't vote in favour of Brookfield's offer, then there's no point talking to Brookfield (BIP) at all about carving up AIO. So by this notion, it feels most like Lew's DJS's blackmail. Lew wanted to sell his Country Road stake so he raided DJS as hostage. Now QUB perhaps want to force BIP to sell the Ports to them?
I seem to remember reading something about takeover rules.... that you are not allowed to favour certain holders over others. Woolworths (the South African DJS buyer) had to act like it always wanted to buy Country Road at a ridiculously high price off it's own back, even though it's plainly doing so to the benefit of Lew. I wonder if it's legal for BIP to agree to sell the ports to QUB, even if it has the desire to do so?!
On top of all this.... is the backdrop of regulatory uncertainty surrounding the takeover itself. Divesting the Ports probably wouldn't solve ACCC's issues which mostly concern the rail operations. Does it mean that QUB is confidence that ACCC's hurdle will be crossed in the end? Or may be it's plan B is to buy the ports directly from AIO should the Brookfield deal is ruled out?
May be... if AIO was trading around the offer price then a drop would be a no brainer. But given that it's some 20% below the implied deal value, any falls should be pretty limited. It was trading close enough to $7 before the BIP offer and we are only at ~$7.50 now. I'd say it's a buy if it gets anywhere near $7. On the other hand, QUB may be a short. It's taking a very large bite while it thinks about what to do with it's mouthful of AIO.
Interesting side note... QUB's raid also has good similarity with MIN's raid on AQA. But MIN went against a Chinese acquirer and ignored the Chinese "face" concept. I don't know if divesting the ports is or isn't a good idea from BIP's point of view, but I wonder if the Canadians would be upset with QUB's rude intrusion?
Thanks for a great list to help me frame my thinking. There are similarities and there are differences. By way of background, the AFR reports that
If QUB doesn't vote in favour of Brookfield's offer, then there's no point talking to Brookfield (BIP) at all about carving up AIO. So by this notion, it feels most like Lew's DJS's blackmail. Lew wanted to sell his Country Road stake so he raided DJS as hostage. Now QUB perhaps want to force BIP to sell the Ports to them?
I seem to remember reading something about takeover rules.... that you are not allowed to favour certain holders over others. Woolworths (the South African DJS buyer) had to act like it always wanted to buy Country Road at a ridiculously high price off it's own back, even though it's plainly doing so to the benefit of Lew. I wonder if it's legal for BIP to agree to sell the ports to QUB, even if it has the desire to do so?!
On top of all this.... is the backdrop of regulatory uncertainty surrounding the takeover itself. Divesting the Ports probably wouldn't solve ACCC's issues which mostly concern the rail operations. Does it mean that QUB is confidence that ACCC's hurdle will be crossed in the end? Or may be it's plan B is to buy the ports directly from AIO should the Brookfield deal is ruled out?
May be... if AIO was trading around the offer price then a drop would be a no brainer. But given that it's some 20% below the implied deal value, any falls should be pretty limited. It was trading close enough to $7 before the BIP offer and we are only at ~$7.50 now. I'd say it's a buy if it gets anywhere near $7. On the other hand, QUB may be a short. It's taking a very large bite while it thinks about what to do with it's mouthful of AIO.
Interesting side note... QUB's raid also has good similarity with MIN's raid on AQA. But MIN went against a Chinese acquirer and ignored the Chinese "face" concept. I don't know if divesting the ports is or isn't a good idea from BIP's point of view, but I wonder if the Canadians would be upset with QUB's rude intrusion?
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Fascinating discussion guys. Really good stuff.
The bold is where I am focused today. Short the acquirer is probably the common play, but it seems to have a decent win rate in the recent history.
Looking back at MIN like you guys have pointed too shows that it fell on the day it announced its stake.
Fascinating discussion guys. Really good stuff.
Agree on AIO.
The bold is where I am focused today. Short the acquirer is probably the common play, but it seems to have a decent win rate in the recent history.
Looking back at MIN like you guys have pointed too shows that it fell on the day it announced its stake.
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Some more interesting developments on AIO overnight, took a short on QUB at open, as the prospect of a full takeover is on the cards for ”QUB and friends“.
Some more interesting developments on AIO overnight, took a short on QUB at open, as the prospect of a full takeover is on the cards for ”QUB and friends“.
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Re: AIO - Asciano
Took a nibble at this today.
Qube has now made a formal bid, so even if Brookfield can't get past the ACCC, a takeover is still likely.
Its only trading a little below the Qube bid value, but the bid also includes some tasty franking credits for the super fund. Still a chance of a bidding war too.
Took a nibble at this today.
Qube has now made a formal bid, so even if Brookfield can't get past the ACCC, a takeover is still likely.
Its only trading a little below the Qube bid value, but the bid also includes some tasty franking credits for the super fund. Still a chance of a bidding war too.
