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NBN Rollout Scrapped

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NBNMyths said:
We've been saying since before it was released that Malcolm's CBA was worthless. Now the man Mal appointed to head NBN Co has dismissed some of the key planks on which the CBA is based, namely that 15Mbps will be sufficient for most users in 2023, and that only 5% of users will need 43Mbps by 2023.

Mr Morrow says 15Mbps isn't enough for his family TODAY, and NBN figures reveal that over half of NBN customers already choose speeds of >25Mbps, and 28% are already choosing 50-100Mbps.

How can anyone take seriously a report that predicts broadband demand will be lower in 9 years than it is today?


http://www.jasonclare.com.au/media/...-thinks-malcolms-mates-report-is-rubbish.html
Click to expand...

I think, from experience, what you think will happen and what actually happens will be poles appart.:D
And I'm not talking about demand.
 
On the topic of demand...

I hadn't seen this before, but research has been done to test the takeup of Google Fiber in Kansas. A city that already has "high speed" FTTN and HFC broadband available.

Yet, between 27% and 83% (low-high socioeconomic areas respectively) of passed premises have taken up Google's 1Gbps FTTP service.


....But we'll only want 15Mbps in a decade.... :banghead:
 
NBNMyths said:
Yes, it's cheaper than our broadband. But it's comparatively expensive in their market, where unlimited FTTN/HFC is ~$50/month.
Click to expand...
Their plans appear to be cheaper across the board and hence more affordable.

----------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, NBN Co board member Simon Hackett has released another presentation,

Rebooting the NBN: (Personal) Reflections on the journey thus far

Posted on September 6, 2014

On 4th September 2014 I delivered a talk at the AusNOG 2014 technology conference in Sydney about the NBN called “Rebooting the NBN: (Personal) Reflections on the journey thus far”.
Click to expand...

http://simonhackett.com/2014/09/06/rebooting-the-nbn/#more-1633

On matters re-recent rollout stats, there's also this,

http://www.zdnet.com/au/clean-up-job-stops-nbn-rollout-stats-showing-the-full-picture-7000033237/
 
drsmith said:
Their plans appear to be cheaper across the board and hence more affordable.

----------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, NBN Co board member Simon Hackett has released another presentation,



http://simonhackett.com/2014/09/06/rebooting-the-nbn/#more-1633

On matters re-recent rollout stats, there's also this,

http://www.zdnet.com/au/clean-up-job-stops-nbn-rollout-stats-showing-the-full-picture-7000033237/
Click to expand...

Great to hear some 'truth' from Simon Hackett regarding the NBN and rollout and maps. Shows how much the ALP lied to the public.
 
http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/gov...ooner-pilot-results-show-20140905-10cgdg.html

NBN fibre rollout was going to be cheaper, sooner, pilot results show

Some highlights:

Labor's all-fibre national broadband network could have been delivered faster and for less money than originally forecast, according to the confidential results of a pilot study completed last month.

The pilot took into account design changes formulated by network builder, NBN Co, last year as then chief executive Mike Quigley undertook a substantial review of the project and identified initiatives to reduce its cost and length.

The evaluation, contained in an internal presentation document dated August 2014 and seen by Fairfax Media, shows a team combining telecommunications firms Cemetrix, CommsConnect and Linktech Telecom was on track to complete the Melton rollout in just 104 days, compared with an average of 344 days in other areas.

Ninety per cent of buildings were serviceable by fibre by the end of August - 61 per cent faster and 50 per cent more cheaply than in areas using previous rollout models, the document said.

Boring, trenching, pit installation, cable hauling and other building work were being completed between 22 per cent to 400 per cent faster than the average by using new procedures including thinner and lighter cables, visiting premises only once and better managing contractor relationships.

The results confirm Labor's NBN was improving in the lead-up to the election, a point Mr Quigley had pressed in a speech to industry group TelSoc in December.




I wonder why Mal has kept this under wraps? :rolleyes:
 
NBNMyths said:
I wonder why Mal has kept this under wraps? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I feel sorry for Mike Quigley. He had to try and ride Stephen Conroy's one trick pony with red underpants on his head.

You will have noted that Simon Hackett in the above presentation offers his own views in the state the rollout (and NBN Co itself) was in under Labor and how the organisation is being reconfigured to be more flexible, both to be able to respond to technological and political change.

The dates in the above Fairfax story make that report look very recent.
 
Why would the Australian oppose fibre roll out so fiercely...........oh thats why


Foxtel cuts prices amid new competition

Foxtel is facing unprecedented pressure to cut prices and boost content because of the growing availability of cheaper alternatives delivered over the internet.

US giant Netflix, which is not officially available in Australia, is thought to have some 200,000 Australian subscribers, each of whom can access TV and videos on demand for as little as $US10 ($A10.82) per month.
Click to expand...
Foxtel is also facing a host of other new competitors.



http://www.perthnow.com.au/business...-new-competition/story-fnhohek5-1227047817264
 
drsmith said:
I feel sorry for Mike Quigley. He had to try and ride Stephen Conroy's one trick pony with red underpants on his head.

You will have noted that Simon Hackett in the above presentation offers his own views in the state the rollout (and NBN Co itself) was in under Labor and how the organisation is being reconfigured to be more flexible, both to be able to respond to technological and political change.

The dates in the above Fairfax story make that report look very recent.
Click to expand...

You also would have noted the many times Simon has mentioned he believes we should be building the FTTP and it's the superior network. The good thing seemed to be that NBN co would seem well prepared to switch to a full FTTP model for the remaining network if Labor took that policy to the next election and won. It's an interesting mess that he goes into about TPG running fibre to the basement in MDUs, MT didn't really think that one through.

The worst part is that the strategic review took none of that data from NBN Myths link into consideration even though it was available. They used the figure of 2k a premises to connect even though before these changes the figure was $1200-$1500.
 
overhang said:
You also would have noted the many times Simon has mentioned he believes we should be building the FTTP and it's the superior network. The good thing seemed to be that NBN co would seem well prepared to switch to a full FTTP model for the remaining network if Labor took that policy to the next election and won. It's an interesting mess that he goes into about TPG running fibre to the basement in MDUs, MT didn't really think that one through.

The worst part is that the strategic review took none of that data from NBN Myths link into consideration even though it was available. They used the figure of 2k a premises to connect even though before these changes the figure was $1200-$1500.
Click to expand...
IIRC, he said FTTP would cost $60bn so the point he was making was that FTTP is the superior network if cost is no object.

The fact that NBN Co is being structured to move with the tech demonstrates that under this government, there's much less political interference than the previous government's and its one trick pony option.

As for TPG, who's legislation was responsible for that ?

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/17/screw-nbn-says-tpg-well-fttb/

The above article is dated 17/9/2013 whereas the Abbott Government was sworn in on the 18/9/2013.

With regard to the Fairfax article Myths has linked, the dates look very recent as I have previously noted.
 
NBNMyths said:
http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/gov...ooner-pilot-results-show-20140905-10cgdg.html

NBN fibre rollout was going to be cheaper, sooner, pilot results show

Some highlights:

Labor's all-fibre national broadband network could have been delivered faster and for less money than originally forecast, according to the confidential results of a pilot study completed last month.

The pilot took into account design changes formulated by network builder, NBN Co, last year as then chief executive Mike Quigley undertook a substantial review of the project and identified initiatives to reduce its cost and length.

The evaluation, contained in an internal presentation document dated August 2014 and seen by Fairfax Media, shows a team combining telecommunications firms Cemetrix, CommsConnect and Linktech Telecom was on track to complete the Melton rollout in just 104 days, compared with an average of 344 days in other areas.

Ninety per cent of buildings were serviceable by fibre by the end of August - 61 per cent faster and 50 per cent more cheaply than in areas using previous rollout models, the document said.

Boring, trenching, pit installation, cable hauling and other building work were being completed between 22 per cent to 400 per cent faster than the average by using new procedures including thinner and lighter cables, visiting premises only once and better managing contractor relationships.

The results confirm Labor's NBN was improving in the lead-up to the election, a point Mr Quigley had pressed in a speech to industry group TelSoc in December.




I wonder why Mal has kept this under wraps? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

This post hoc analysis bears little credence.

The conditions set, at the beginning of the trial, and the subsequent projections made, would make a witch looking in to her bubbles more credible.

Please desist from un-enlightening massage of effort and result.

I despair sometimes of my fellow Australians' nous at running trials and making strategic decisions of the results.

The NBN was and remains a timely reminder that politicians need a good and vigorous public service to prevent them from beggaring us all.

gg
 
drsmith said:
IIRC, he said FTTP would cost $60bn so the point he was making was that FTTP is the superior network if cost is no object.

The fact that NBN Co is being structured to move with the tech demonstrates that under this government, there's much less political interference than the previous government's and its one trick pony option.

As for TPG, who's legislation was responsible for that ?

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/17/screw-nbn-says-tpg-well-fttb/

The above article is dated 17/9/2013 whereas the Abbott Government was sworn in on the 18/9/2013.

With regard to the Fairfax article Myths has linked, the dates look very recent as I have previously noted.
Click to expand...

Well I don't recall him ever saying it would cost 60 billion but I do concede he made the point that with unlimited funds FTTP would be the way to go but with limited resources available then we would have to make do with a mixed network.

It's a little early to say that there is less political interference going on given MT sacked most the existing board, we would probably need someone who has been on both boards to give us insight on which one had less political interference but Hacketts words certainly portray the current board in good light.

Did you read the article you linked?
Under the previous Labor administration, it is unlikely that TPG would have been allowed to pursue its FTTB plans, given that Labor’s policy would have prohibited private operators from overbuilding the NBN in most cases
Click to expand...
No this one is well and truly MT's problem.
 
Knobby22 said:
Does anyone know whether you can pay to get the fibre run to the home if you wish?
Click to expand...

In Simon Hacketts presentation that Dr Smith linked he indicates they will be able to provide fibre on demand for any business or house that would like to pay for FTTP. He mentions that they'll look at charging people what it would cost to run the fibre x distance to x point on a case by case basis, similar to those building in new areas that require the power to be ran to their house. So it seems if you lived beside the node it would be a bit cheaper than if you were 150m away.
 
overhang said:
Well I don't recall him ever saying it would cost 60 billion but I do concede he made the point that with unlimited funds FTTP would be the way to go but with limited resources available then we would have to make do with a mixed network.
Click to expand...
I listened to part of it again last night and the context of the $60b he mentioned was essentially a reference to unlimited financial resources rather than the cost.

overhang said:
It's a little early to say that there is less political interference going on given MT sacked most the existing board, we would probably need someone who has been on both boards to give us insight on which one had less political interference but Hacketts words certainly portray the current board in good light.
Click to expand...
They've been given a budget and a timeframe and the adaptability to mix technologies as they evolve over time. I'm not necessarily saying there's no political interference, but on that alone, it's clearly not what existed under the napkin and Stephen Conroy's red underpants.

With regard to the former board, Simon made it clear there wasn't the right mix of experience for the project and that it was essentially a train wreck.

overhang said:
Did you read the article you linked?
No this one is well and truly MT's problem.
Click to expand...
It was an oversight on Labor's part and only MT's issue now only by virtue of the fact that Labor was booted out at the last election.
 
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...tbenefit-analysis-report-20140907-10dqu0.html

The dotted straight lines in the chart are the projected average download and upload speeds from 2013 to 2023, extracted from graphs on Pages 55 and 57 of the Communications Chambers report as supplied to the Vertigan Panel. Communications Chambers obtained their data by statistically analysing the usage patterns of a variety of known applications in a variety of household types. The data point indicated with an asterisk is the Communications Chambers 15 Mbps prediction for 2023 that found its way into the Vertigan report.

Amazingly, this 15 Mbps prediction for 2023 is less than Ookla's reported actual average download speed in Australia, today, in September 2014 (16 Mbps).

In other words, Communication Chambers is saying the rapid growth in internet access speed that we have seen in recent years is about to suddenly come to an abrupt end and there is no need for any increase in download speeds in Australia for the next nine years. This defies logic, and it's a mystery why the Vertigan panel didn't ask Communications Chambers to check the calculations and fix the data.

Serious flaws in the Vertigan report
But what happens if we use my projections of real bandwidth growth rather than the highly questionable Communication Chambers data? If we multiply my projected average download speed of 34 Mbps by the three-times ratio used by Vertigan between high-end users and average users, we find that high-end users will require download speeds of 102 Mbps. If I replace my conservative linear projection by an exponential projection, the required download speed for high-end users will be more than 200 Mbps. A FTTN network cannot provide these speeds; a FTTP network can.

The Vertigan report includes a sensitivity analysis that shows an FTTP network can provide a better net cost-benefit outcome than a FTTN network if the growth in bandwidth demand is higher than used in their analysis. If they had used realistic data for growth in demand, their cost-benefit analysis may well have shown that a FTTP network will provide Australia with the best long-term value for money.
 

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