NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

With regard to the copper, my download speed on ADSL is as follows;

Your line speed is 12.06 Mbps (12061 kbps). Your download speed is 1.47 MB/s (1508 KB/s).

Estimated copper length from exchange: ~ 1.8km.

http://www.ozspeedtest.com/bandwidth-test/

I can refine this information a little more.

I'm 1.22km from the exchange as the crow flies with an estimated cable length of 1.89km.

http://www.adsl2exchanges.com.au/

The estimated speed according to the above site it 14.666 Mbps

I might run the speed test daily for a while to see how it varies.

Note: The adsl2exchanges link has previously been provided in a thread on this forum IIRC, but I didn't recover the link from there.

 

[sydboy007]

Thanks doc, I just ran it and the results were.

8.07Mb/s line speed and 1008KB/s download speed. approx 1km from exchange

If you are really only 1KM cable length from the exchange you should be getting a lot higher speed - note the CAN can sometimes take the scenic route.

If you're able to log into your modem and look at the DSL line stats you can use this website - http://fremnet.net/article/216 to get an idea of the kind of speed you should be getting.

To give you an idea of what I mean google maps shows I'm around 1200M from the Newtown exchange.

My cable length is nearly twice my walking distance.

Fortunately I seem to have pretty decent copper - could be due to my house being built in 96 - so what I'm getting and what I theoretically should get are pretty similar. Optus seem to use a slightly conservative ADSL profile which improves speed but cuts down on speed a bit but I've not had a disconnect for over 69 days.

How much FTTN will overcome the scenic router for the copper I'm not sure, but as soon as you want to start changing the path of the copper from the pillar to house the cost of FTTN goes up exponentially and you might as well do FTTP.

 

[drsmith]

Tonight's result,

Your line speed is 11.57 Mbps (11567 kbps). Your download speed is 1.41 MB/s (1446 KB/s).

 

[sptrawler]

Tonight's result,

Your line speed is 11.57 Mbps (11567 kbps). Your download speed is 1.41 MB/s (1446 KB/s).

I thought I would try it on the wifes laptop, it is cable connected to the modem( i should have thought of that when I tested mine).
Anyway 5 minutes ago 18.30 Sat night.
8.48MB/s line speed and 1.04MB/s download.
I will have to check out Syd's suggestions

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Conroy has come out, at last.

He says that the NBN was an unaffordable brainfart.

gg

 

[drsmith]

He says that the NBN was an unaffordable brainfart.

It's what some of us realised from the start.

 

[NBNMyths]

Conroy has come out, at last.

He says that the NBN was an unaffordable brainfart.

gg

You seem to have some issues with comprehension.

Perhaps that explains the post that started this whole thread off as well....Some guy you know said "The NBN is about to be rolled out in Townsville", which you heard as "The NBN has been cancelled".

I can see how the two can be confused. Just like your interpretation of what Conroy said.....

 

[medicowallet]

You seem to have some issues with comprehension.

Perhaps that explains the post that started this whole thread off as well....Some guy you know said "The NBN is about to be rolled out in Townsville", which you heard as "The NBN has been cancelled".

I can see how the two can be confused. Just like your interpretation of what Conroy said.....

Some of my friends live in Townsville. They don't have NBN yet.

How long will it be until they get their FTTH?
What speed do they need now?
What speed do they need in 10 years time?
How much in export dollars do they generate now with their ADSL2?
How much in export dollars will they generate with NBN speeds?

Thankyou for your consideration in answering these very important questions.

MW

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

You seem to have some issues with comprehension.

Perhaps that explains the post that started this whole thread off as well....Some guy you know said "The NBN is about to be rolled out in Townsville", which you heard as "The NBN has been cancelled".

I can see how the two can be confused. Just like your interpretation of what Conroy said.....

Read what he said.

And as someone who has some skills in corporate governance, I would ask you, did he assess risk, benefits, projections, costings,

When he had his brainfart with Kevin Rudd at 30,000 feet on the back of an envelope on a taxpayer funded flight, did he make a wise decision.

I care not for your gigabyte answers.

This comes down to spending of public monies.

There was more governance on the Snowy Scheme than on the NBN, when governance was not even in the dictionary.

gg

 

[drsmith]

Read what he said.

I'll offer some assistance there.

"I think we underestimated the capacity of the construction industry to respond to the challenge and that has led to the majority of the publicity around the alleged blowouts, not that anybody can point to one," he said. "The construction model could be legitimately criticised."

Oopsie. I wonder how well the share price would reflect the published accounts if this were listed.

Part of this was due to the government asking NBN Co to pick up the fibre construction for new housing estates, something he said NBN Co "wasn't prepared for", as well as the government's decision to include the 34 percent of premises in Australia that are part of a multi-dwelling unit (MDU).

"Saying that 34 percent of Australians were not left behind and weren't able to get access to the [1 Gbps] and beyond, was a tough decision because it meant MDUs were going to be dealt with on a much more rigirous basis than just putting a box into the basement, whatever that means," he said.

There's 1/3 of the difference between The Coalition's and Labor's NBN plans gone in a single breath. Perhaps "whatever that means" should have been considered more closely.

"[The construction targets] were always ambitious [and] that was an area where we were overly ambitious."

It's obvious what that meant.

"Did you miss me?"

Not for one last effort crowned in his own red underpants.

http://www.zdnet.com/au/nbn-construction-targets-were-too-ambitious-conroy-7000021850/

Meanwhile, in Tasmania,

The ABC has obtained figures showing the network had passed 32,000 premises in the state in August, with no progress since.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-...enewed-pressure-to-resolve-nbn-delays/5018522

 

[drsmith]

More on the rollout from the AFR.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/nbn_rollout_slows_to_grind_nationwide_xFL12C3itUMoCEGi8H07xH

 

[drsmith]

The contents of the AFR article puts the timing of Stephen Conroy's confession statement in an interesting light and also this comment,

But in seeking to protect his legacy, Conroy said that any further delays in the NBN rollout would be on the head of new Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and his decision to review the design of the NBN.

"The biggest threat to that ramp up will be the extent of any delay as Mr Turnbull's new board goes through all its reviews," he said.

"Any further delays to the rollout beyond the schedule in the revised plan that has now been submitted to Mr Turnbull ... will be a consequence of his policies and his change in policy agenda."

What's left of Stephen Conroy's NBN house of cards though appears to be falling apart even before his seat has cooled.

NBN Co’s 2012 corporate plan predicted the rollout would give access to 1028 existing homes and businesses a day by June 30, 2013.

This was then meant to ramp up to 3372 premises a day by June 30, 2014. But it is understood NBN Co is currently passing about 1250 premises a week.

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull recently downgraded NBN Co’s June 30, 2014 construction target from 1.3 million premises passed with fibre to 729,000, citing problems with the rollout.

According to a senior industry source close to the NBN, the missed targets were largely due to contractors slowing down.

Syntheo, which is a 50-50 joint venture between Service Stream and Lend Lease, is pulling out of contracts to build the network in Western Australia and South Australia.

“The productivity inside NBN Co at the moment is very low,” the company said.

“No one is pushing the contractors at the moment because there are all these reviews going on. There are so many issues it will probably take 12 months to turn around.”

 

[Calliope]

What's left of Stephen Conroy's NBN house of cards though appears to be falling apart even before his seat has cooled.

It is interesting to note that our two resident NBN "experts" have set much higher standards and expectations for Turnbull than they set for Conroy.

Conroy may not have been the most impressive minister to be sworn in by an Australian governor-general, but it would be harsh to suggest the NBN debacle was caused by his particular incompetence.

Rather, like so many of the Rudd and Gillard administrations' failures, the NBN invested too much faith in the ability of the state to micro-manage private lives.

After everything we have learnt about government central planning over the past 60 years, the Rudd government's decision to nationalise broadband looked mad from the beginning.

Some four and a half years later, with fewer than 100,000 homes and businesses actually connected - a reach of less than 1 per cent - it looks stark, staring bonkers.

- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...y-fnhulhjj-1226739861353#sthash.cFGklEuR.dpuf

 

[sptrawler]

The same amount of thought went into the NBN, as went into the roof insulation project.
In Mandurah W.A they are connecting investment properties and holiday homes, that are empty.
While businesses patiently wait.

 

[drsmith]

In Mandurah W.A they are connecting investment properties and holiday homes, that are empty. While businesses patiently wait.

I suppose an upside is that it's still being rolled out somewhere.

The rollout numbers outlined in the above AFR article if accurate make for very sobering reading,

NBN Co had projected in July that it would pass about 318,700 existing homes and businesses with fibre optic cabling by the end of September.

But as of October 7, the company had passed 227,454 premises – many of which were apartments and shopping arcades that can’t order an NBN service, according to internal statistics obtained by The Australian Financial Review.

But it is understood NBN Co is currently passing about 1250 premises a week.

If that's ultimately reflective of the rollout to June 30 2013 (1250 premises a week), the NBN will pass 276,204 premises by then or about half the number suggested in the Coalition's plan let alone any of NBN Co's constantly downward revised estimates.

The numbers presented on the Tasmanian rollout are even more grim,

Tasmania has been the worst affected state with the official number of premises that can connect to the NBN actually falling backwards over the past two months.

While 32,003 premises were counted as passed on August 12, this fell to 32,001 as of October 7, after NBN Co corrected inaccurate data.

 

[drsmith]

Stephen Conroy on Lateline last night,

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3868978.htm

David Chandler's view,

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...use-of-nbn-woes/story-e6frgaif-1226739889457#

 

[sydboy007]

The copper fantastic.

Was speaking to one of the account managers at work about a customer we have in varsity lakes QLD.

When trying to give them a 10Mbs service we found it impossible due to the lack of viable copper. For those who don't know where Varsity lakes is, it's a suburb of the Gold Coast, so you'd think they'd have reasonable infrastructure.

In the end we had to go for a microwave based Big Air link to get them up and working.

But dun worry, now that MT is in charge the copper has magically been restored to pristine condition and he's somehow going to only need 50,000 nodes to give everyone a minimum of 50Mbs download speed.

50K of nodes is more likely to be in the vicinity of 75Kfor the frist round, with howmany extra to hit the 50mbs target I'm not sure. 10% copper remediation budget seems pretty slim and I'd say the figure is more like to be in the 20-30% range.

But since MT has released NO COSTINGS for his policy it seems unfair to criticise Labor when the Coalition have ~80 pages of "policy" that shows not one financial calculation on how they came up with their total cost. No costing for nodes, how much it will cost to connect each node to the power network, no figures for how much copper remediation will cost. Surely MT could have released all this by now, especially if he was being honest with his pledge for openness and accountability.

 

[drsmith]

The copper fantastic.

1250 premises a week.

How long will it take to get to 12 million at that rate ?

I'm not surprised you've given up defending it.

 

[sydboy007]

1250 premises a week.

How long will it take to get to 12 million at that rate ?

I'm not surprised you've given up defending it.

No probs. In 6 months we'll still be at 0 nodes installed, in 12 months probably 0 nodes as well, but you guys will still think there's double rainbows and unicorns simply due to a Liberal Federal Govt.

Care to offer a reason why MT hasn't released any of the assumptions made to come up with his FTTN costings? Why are they held like a top secret report i wonder?

 

[drsmith]

No probs. In 6 months we'll still be at 0 nodes installed, in 12 months probably 0 nodes as well, but you guys will still think there's double rainbows and unicorns simply due to a Liberal Federal Govt.

Care to offer a reason why MT hasn't released any of the assumptions made to come up with his FTTN costings? Why are they held like a top secret report i wonder?

But in the meantime we have all those contracts signed for Labor's FTTP rollout.

I have no doubt the strategic review will make for interesting reading.

What exchange services Varsity Lakes QLD ?