NBN Rollout Scrapped

[medicowallet]

1. The "$60bn" difference has already been exposed as BS. http://delimiter2.com.au/just-plain-wrong-full-refutation-coalitions-94bn-nbn-costing/

2. Around 60% of NBN signups have already chosen 50/20 and 100/40Mbps speeds. Well above those available on either ADSL or even FTTN. Especially upload (you know, the bit you need for "exporting".)

3. The vast majority of NBN costs are construction, not equipment. So it will be vastly more expensive in 10 years, not cheaper.

1. I can't access that article.

2. They choose it, but do they NEED it. Your argument is that people want to download pr0n faster, but does it mean we export more.

3. You have limited understanding of investing? What if I invested $30 billion into roads, rail, ports, farms etc that actually show a ROI to invest in 10 years time. Surely it would be more intelligent to do that.

MW

 

[sydboy007]

shock horror wireless will kill off fixed broadband

 

[NBNMyths]

1. I can't access that article.

2. They choose it, but do they NEED it. Your argument is that people want to download pr0n faster, but does it mean we export more.

3. You have limited understanding of investing? What if I invested $30 billion into roads, rail, ports, farms etc that actually show a ROI to invest in 10 years time. Surely it would be more intelligent to do that.

MW

1. Well, it explains why the Coalition's "$94bn" claims were BS.

2. Does it matter? Who decides what is a "need" and what is a "want"? If they are choosing 50 and 100 speeds, then they are contributing more to the NBN's revenue, and therefore its ROI.

3. The NBN is projected to earn a 7% ROI. And what is to say that putting $30bn into ports/rail/farms would earn a larger ROI? Adelaide-Darwin rail link, anyone?

 

[drsmith]

Mr Fraudband caught out telling porkies yet again

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/359925,visionstream-hits-back-at-turnbulls-nbn-stop-work-claim.aspx

While Malcolm's initial comments were over reach, there is this clarification.

A spokesperson for Turnbull later clarified work hadn’t stopped completely but had been “very slow and patchy”.

Also from the article,

The spokesperson said the company was currently undertaking “construction of fibre servicing area modules (FSAM) in Launceston, a large amount of aerial cabling across the state, and is issuing tenders for new construction civil works as work packages are released by NBN.”

It conceded it had suffered delays to work volumes as a result of unsafe asbestos handling discovered during Telstra pit remediation, but said it was working with both the telco and NBN Co to commence construction of works as it is deemed safe to do so.

The implication is that Visionstream’s pit and duct install has indeed been impacted, and for reasons that go beyond asbestos.

Visionstream’s Tasmanian rollout has been dogged by pay disputes with subcontractors, which claim to be owed up to $15 million. The disputes allegedly forced subcontractors to let go of 200 workers due to an inability to pay them.

 

[drsmith]

Well with the Cherry Picking in play for the cities the NBN is not going to have the income to cross subsidise the country areas without ongoing budget support. Who'd want to be involved with that kind of debacle?

It turns out that the NBN's former directors were somewhat keen to stay.

Former directors of NBN Co paid more than $110,000 in consulting fees to Coalition-linked lobby group Bespoke Approach in a failed bid to retain their jobs past the federal election.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_directors_spent_to_save_skins_6rN4q7YRZ7DBUHOwk7PXPI

 

[sydboy007]

It turns out that the NBN's former directors were somewhat keen to stay.



http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_directors_spent_to_save_skins_6rN4q7YRZ7DBUHOwk7PXPI

Good for them. Lets see how Telecommunications rollout ala Hybrid coax goes. 50% of the population with infrastructure competition leading to no private $$$ left over to service the other 50%. I can see new apartment buildings selling the broadband rights like they do the facilities management now and locking in those living their to 1 provider.

It'll probably take years of court cases to get everyone to agree on how to ensure their equipment plays nice with the network, and it's going to be fun seeing h/w vendors, and network providers finger pointing at each other when issues arise, and trust me in complex networks like this without any standard kit installed there will be problems aplenty.

then we'll have no cross subisidies since most of the profitable infrastructure has privatised the profits, so we socialise the loses via the tax system.

Can't say i'll shed a tear if it happens since a great many of the affected voted for it.

 

[sptrawler]

Well, Conroy admits they underestimated the enormity of the project, from a construction perspective.
Anyone who has had anything to do with major construction projects, knew that.:1zhelp:

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...-ambitious-stephen-conroy-20131011-hv244.html

 

[medicowallet]

1. Well, it explains why the Coalition's "$94bn" claims were BS.

2. Does it matter? Who decides what is a "need" and what is a "want"? If they are choosing 50 and 100 speeds, then they are contributing more to the NBN's revenue, and therefore its ROI.

3. The NBN is projected to earn a 7% ROI. And what is to say that putting $30bn into ports/rail/farms would earn a larger ROI? Adelaide-Darwin rail link, anyone?

3. You are assuming rollout is on time (not at the moment) on budget (not at the moment) and will continue (not likely.

Stop living in disneyland.

The NBN is over.

The NBN has a poor ROI at its current poor delivery by a bunch of incompetents.

The NBN is not NEEDED, it is merely wanted.

MW

 

[drsmith]

Good for them.

It's not so good for you.

Re-read your own post. I highlighted it for you.

 

[drsmith]

Well, Conroy admits they underestimated the enormity of the project, from a construction perspective.
Anyone who has had anything to do with major construction projects, knew that.:1zhelp:

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...-ambitious-stephen-conroy-20131011-hv244.html

The most stunning admission is that it's not all due to drawn out negotiations with Telstra and the asbestos issue.

Former communications minister Stephen Conroy has conceded construction targets for the national broadband network were "overly ambitious" and overestimated the capacity of the construction industry.

Mr Red Underpants himself has belatedly raised the white flag on Labor's NBN fantasy.

 

[drsmith]

An edited video segment of Stephen Conroy's NBN concession comments,

http://media.smh.com.au/news/national-news/where-labor-went-wrong-with-the-nbn-4823259.html

It was of course all Mr Hindsight's fault.

 

[sptrawler]

The most stunning admission is that it's not all due to drawn out negotiations with Telstra and the asbestos issue.

You can't knock them for having a grandiose plan, just the pre planning and analysis was lacking.
If they had applied a logical approach to it rather than an ideological approach, they would have had a more support and more sucess.IMO
They should have structured the roll out so high volume commercial users were connected first, their usage would have given an instant return on capital.
This could have then helped subsidise the roll out cost to second tier commercial.
Then the really expensive roll out to the houses would at least be assisted by the first and second tier consumers.
IMO the problem with Labor is, they put the plan, before the funding model.
Then they expect everyone to accept that they aren't responsible for the cost blow out.

 

[drsmith]

You can't knock them for having a grandiose plan, just the pre planning and analysis was lacking.
If they had applied a logical approach to it rather than an ideological approach, they would have had a more support and more sucess.IMO
They should have structured the roll out so high volume commercial users were connected first, their usage would have given an instant return on capital.
This could have then helped subsidise the roll out cost to second tier commercial.
Then the really expensive roll out to the houses would at least be assisted by the first and second tier consumers.
IMO the problem with Labor is, they put the plan, before the funding model.
Then they expect everyone to accept that they aren't responsible for the cost blow out.

In the video link above, their ideological nature of their decisions is laid bare with Stephen Conroy's comments on MDU's and the rollout in Tasmania.

 

[DB008]

The NBN has a poor ROI at its current poor delivery by a bunch of incompetents.

Which is why I have been scratching my head...Why not roll out the NBN in the most populated areas first, to get cash flowing back into the coffers?

Madness

 

[NBNMyths]

3. You are assuming rollout is on time (not at the moment) on budget (not at the moment) and will continue (not likely.

Stop living in disneyland.

The NBN is over.

The NBN has a poor ROI at its current poor delivery by a bunch of incompetents.

The NBN is not NEEDED, it is merely wanted.

MW

No, I'm not assuming it was on time, but the delays were allowed for while still retaining the return, because the ARPU was so far above expectations (due to such a high takeup of 100Mbps plans - you know, the ones that "aren't needed"), that the extra revenue almost accounted for the cost of the delays. If you'd been keeping up, you'd know that the peak funding required was increased by $1.6bn a few months ago (although NBN Co did have a $3bn contingency fund, and it's not known whether the $1.6bn was absorbed by that).

And yes, it is (pretty much) on budget actually. Forecast capex has not increased.

It's not over, it's just (probably) being scaled back to obsolete FTTN technology, which will have to be replaced in 5 or 10 years at more cost, and probably cost 3-4 times more in annual opex. Oh well, it's only money.

Need v Want is a matter of opinion, not fact.

Which is why I have been scratching my head...Why not roll out the NBN in the most populated areas first, to get cash flowing back into the coffers?

Madness

The NBN is/was being rolled out simultaneously in all sorts of areas, fanning out from the 121 nationwide points of interconnect. Urban, suburban, regional.

The takeup has actually been highest in regional areas so far, probably because they have the worst services currently. So I doubt that a metro-first rollout would have provided improved cash flow.

The Coalition policy is the same. More so in fact, as they've specifically said they'll do metro areas last as they already have adequate services.

 

[sptrawler]

It's not over, it's just (probably) being scaled back to obsolete FTTN technology, which will have to be replaced in 5 or 10 years at more cost, and probably cost 3-4 times more in annual opex. Oh well, it's only money.

Need v Want is a matter of opinion, not fact.
.

I had this debate with a rusted on Laborite friend last night.lol

Why don't we just double everything we build, hospitals if you require 200 beds make them double 400 bed.
Roads, only make 4 lane roads as a minimum, eventually traffic will fill them.
Schools, if there are only 300 children, make them big enough to take 600, it's bound to happen.
Also put in enough fibre outlets for all the expected children to have their own dedicated outlet.
The problem is, something misses out and everyone pays for it

 

[drsmith]

With regard to the copper, my download speed on ADSL is as follows;

Your line speed is 12.06 Mbps (12061 kbps). Your download speed is 1.47 MB/s (1508 KB/s).

Estimated copper length from exchange: ~ 1.8km.

http://www.ozspeedtest.com/bandwidth-test/

 

[sptrawler]

With regard to the copper, my download speed on ADSL is as follows;



Estimated copper length from exchange: ~ 1.8km.

http://www.ozspeedtest.com/bandwidth-test/

Thanks doc, I just ran it and the results were.

8.07Mb/s line speed and 1008KB/s download speed. approx 1km from exchange

 

[sydboy007]

Which is why I have been scratching my head...Why not roll out the NBN in the most populated areas first, to get cash flowing back into the coffers?

Madness

Partly due to the unrepresentative Senate at the time. Personally I think if the rollout had occurred in the cities the conversation would be very different. Certainly the number of premises connected would be far higher due to the high densities.

MDUs could have been sorted out via FTB and then let the apartment body corp decide if they want VDSL / Ethernet / Fibre, with the proviso that NBN has a standard kit to be used to reduce any compatibility issues.

Anyways, I wait with baited breath what Telstra shareholders allow management to do, I wait for real world copper audit results, and I wait for real world speeds results on the poorly maintain, low 0.4 gauge copper we have in this country that sees far higher signal attenuation than say the UK that used 0.6 gauge and better for most of their network.

I'm sure MT will declare these state secrets just as he has with most of the assumptions he's made to guestimate his FTTN costings.

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/telstra_nodes_close_enough_to_homes_o4wkWX8slzPfjTC4AHc4RO

surprised this one hasn't been highlighted yet.

just so there's no confusion:

The "independent" aspect of this study is highly questionable. The consulting firm that carried out the desktop study was GQI Consulting. The parent company of GQI Consulting is ISGM. ISGM have the contract for the installation, construction and maintenance of Telstra’s copper network from the exchange to the customer’s premises.

Also

GQI Consulting director Cliff Gibson told The Australian Financial Review that the study was preliminary and could be prone to error, as it relies on the same address database NBN Co has determined as inaccurate.

No mention of the age or gauge of the copper in Europe they are benchmarking. There's also 60% difference between attainable speeds which shows the high variability of using copper for the "last mile"