NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

...But now...
The contractors have taken those contracts, but know that they will not be renewed. They know that the FTTP rollout will end at the completion of the current contract. Thus, they will employ and train the absolute minimum number of people to fulfill their obligations. Depending on the penalties written into the contract, they may even be happy to deliberately fail to meet targets rather than spend money empoying and training people for a job that's about to finish. They will also likely want to tender for FTTN, which they may divert parts of their workforce into before completing their FTTP obligations.

As sydboy wrote, I also agree that Turnbull will point at the missed targets and blame FTTP, when the reality will be that the contractors saw the end coming, and wound down accordingly.

That to some extent may be true there but there's perhaps also an element of attempting to brace Labor's legacy in that argument against the news to come.

The downgrades we've seen so far have been while Labor has been in office and that includes the recent media account of a downgrade to the June 2014 rollout target.

 

[sydboy007]

I'm relieved you're only tempted.

With regard to any learning curve, that should be factored into forecasts and not used as an excuse to justify chronic shortfalls.

With regard to the copper network, if 20% needs to be replaced then the flipside is that 80% is still serviceable.

Liek to speculate on what an extra 10% copper remediation will do to the FTTN budget?

In my opinion, a house with fibre connected will in the future be worth more than one that doesn't have it. Once people wake up to this situation, that will shift the debate somewhat I'd expect.

Especialy when compared to the house with a Node Fridge plopped out front.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I still reckon someone will be able to use an amoeba to give us biological transmission of data which will be far superior to the NBN.

NBN is a waste of money, an ALP thought bubble.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

MT's blog post about the online petition isn't very encouraging.

Our NBN Policy

12th September 2013 | 899 comments | Blog


The campaigning website change.org has been hosting an onine petition calling on the Coalition to abandon its NBN policy and complete the National Broadband Network on the same design as that set out by Labor - fibre to the premises to 93% of the population.

Last Saturday there was a general election at which the NBN was one of the most prominent issues. The Coalition's NBN Policy - which can be read here had been published in April - five months ahead of the election. The Coalition won the election.

The promoters of this petition apparently believe that we should ignore the lengthy public debate on the NBN that preceded the election and also ignore the election result. We should within days of the election walk away from one of our most well debated, well understood and prominent policies. Democracy? I don't think so.

For those who don't have time to read our policy (but time to sign an online petition) there are a few important points to bear in mind.

We do not regard technology as an ideological issue. We are technologically agnostic. We want to ensure that all Australians have very fast broadband as soon, as cheaply and as affordably as possible. The NBN project at present is running over budget and way behind schedule. At the current rate of progress it will take decades to complete and close to $100 billion.

The Labor Government has not been honest with the public about the NBN. They never conducted a cost benefit analysis, they have sought at every turn to conceal the fact that the project has been failing to meet its targets.

We will bring the public into our confidence. We will open the books of the NBN. There will be a strategic review conducted within the next 60 days which will show how long it will take and how much it will cost to complete the NBN on the current specifications and what that means both to the taxpayer and to the consumers. We will also set out what our options are to complete the project sooner and more cost effectively and again what that means in terms of affordability and of course in service levels. Many of the FTTP supporters on twitter and elsewhere say that they don't care what it costs or how long it takes - they want fibre to the home regardless. That point of view is reckless in the extreme. Every public infrastructure project has to be carefully and honestly analysed so that governments, and citizens, can weigh up the costs and benefits.

This study is vital for the public to be fully informed and our redesign of the project will be informed by the result of those studies.

The NBN debate is not over - but I am determined to ensure that from now on it is at least fully informed.

"well debated, well understood" That's a stretch.

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/our-nbn-policy#.UjmDuNISb7Y

 

[sydboy007]

MT's blog post about the online petition isn't very encouraging.



"well debated, well understood" That's a stretch.

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/our-nbn-policy#.UjmDuNISb7Y

I love this from MT "The NBN debate is not over - but I am determined to ensure that from now on it is at least fully informed."

When he wouldn't release any of the financial assumptions he had made to determine the cost of his FTTN policy.

MT wont be able to hide this for much longer though.

I am so looking forward to seeing what he assumed would be the maximum cable length to deliver 25 Mbs - I'm pretty sure it will match the lab conditions charts rather than what is being ahieved in the world.

 

[overhang]

I still reckon someone will be able to use an amoeba to give us biological transmission of data which will be far superior to the NBN.

NBN is a waste of money, an ALP thought bubble.

gg

It really frustrates me why you conservatives settle for inferior policies just because its not the ALP. Why aren't you lobbying the government about the complete waste of money that is the FTTN NBN? Why aren't you lobbying the government about their Direct Action plan that wastes 3.2 billion dollars of tax payer money?

I would understand if the coalitions stance was to cancel the NBN all together and repeal the ETS but they insist on inept policies just to have an alternative to the governments. This is not a conservative government, a conservative government that has continually told us about the dire economic times yet comes out with the most generous paid parental leave scheme that is essentially a tax on the public through indirect methods (the same way the ETS worked). The worst part is I feel that the media will not hold this Abbott government to the same accountability they held the ALP to but I hope to be proven wrong.

 

[sydboy007]

It really frustrates me why you conservatives settle for inferior policies just because its not the ALP. Why aren't you lobbying the government about the complete waste of money that is the FTTN NBN? Why aren't you lobbying the government about their Direct Action plan that wastes 3.2 billion dollars of tax payer money?

+1

I've already seen the goal posts being moved in this forum.

It's not about the Abbott Government doing what they said they will do, it's just if they do it better than Labor, whatever that means.

MT benchmark is all households will have a minimum 25Mbs and to do it cheaper than the current NBN.

Lets see what his "transparent" review tells us.

 

[drsmith]

It's not about the Abbott Government doing what they said they will do, it's just if they do it better than Labor, whatever that means.

The distinction is one between the ideal and political reality.

Any reasonable person would like to see the ideal, but the political reality of finite choice makes that unrealistic. It might be that our underlying political processes ultimately requires non-partisan reform if political reality slips too far from sound national management.

As for moving goal posts, those representing the NBN rollout schedule floated down the river long ago.

 

[drsmith]

It really frustrates me why you conservatives settle for inferior policies just because its not the ALP. Why aren't you lobbying the government about the complete waste of money that is the FTTN NBN? Why aren't you lobbying the government about their Direct Action plan that wastes 3.2 billion dollars of tax payer money?

I would understand if the coalitions stance was to cancel the NBN all together and repeal the ETS but they insist on inept policies just to have an alternative to the governments. This is not a conservative government, a conservative government that has continually told us about the dire economic times yet comes out with the most generous paid parental leave scheme that is essentially a tax on the public through indirect methods (the same way the ETS worked). The worst part is I feel that the media will not hold this Abbott government to the same accountability they held the ALP to but I hope to be proven wrong.

While I won't go into the specifics of what I feel the Coalition's underlying positions are on specific policies in response to the above comments, Labor won the 2007 election essentially on the back of a me too and John Howard Lite campaign.

Both major parties are guilty in this regard.

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/19/3851924.htm

A senior technician who is currently rolling out the NBN but performed an audit of Telstra's copper network some years ago - when Telstra itself was considering a FTTN rollout - told us that over 30 per cent of the records were wrong. He said that the only way to tell which copper line went from the turret to each house was to have teams of engineers (one at the turret and one at each address) test each line individually to check that it went to the right place.

He said this made the process of performing a "one-to-one translation" of lines from the current pillars to FTTN cabinets, completely impractical; pointing out that Telstra has some 65,000 pillars around Australia with many handling communications for around 200 premises.

---------------

The advantage of the current NBN is your ADSL and phone continue to work till you're NBN connection is up and running.

 

[drsmith]

Liek to speculate on what an extra 10% copper remediation will do to the FTTN budget?

I feel we're going around in circles to some extent here, but in quickly responding, I'll replace an extra 10% with an extra x% with x being a variable.

The rollout overall will clearly cost more and the project take longer, but a greater proportion will be FTTP. In making the determination between retaining the copper and going to FTTP for a specific area, the NBN's current numbers though cannot be relied upon for the basis of any such decisions because of the continual rollout setbacks the current project is suffering.

 

[pixel]

A senior technician who is currently rolling out the NBN but performed an audit of Telstra's copper network some years ago - when Telstra itself was considering a FTTN rollout - told us that over 30 per cent of the records were wrong. He said that the only way to tell which copper line went from the turret to each house was to have teams of engineers (one at the turret and one at each address) test each line individually to check that it went to the right place.

He said this made the process of performing a "one-to-one translation" of lines from the current pillars to FTTN cabinets, completely impractical; pointing out that Telstra has some 65,000 pillars around Australia with many handling communications for around 200 premises.

From own experience, I can believe that.
And a lot of the old copper lines are so badly corroded that ADSL speeds drop back to old dial-up rates.
I've had a total of 8 technicians attend over the course of a year; neither could find a workable pair of wires, although each visit found a "bad connection" somewhere between pillars and home. The honest ones even admitted that the ducts were frequently flooded and unless they were rewired, which Telstra wouldn't do any more, my dropouts would continue.
I ended up switching to wireless; luckily, there is an Optus/ Vivid tower nearby that gives me 8Mbps.

 

[Shaker]

I believe the copper is in a bad state as well

I am an ex Telstra technician and I left in 1997. The copper network in WA was in a bad state then. I doubt seriously that it has improved at all.

MT should save us all the time and expense. Get with the future and get on with FTTP.

Shaker

 

[overhang]

While I won't go into the specifics of what I feel the Coalition's underlying positions are on specific policies in response to the above comments, Labor won the 2007 election essentially on the back of a me too and John Howard Lite campaign.

Both major parties are guilty in this regard.

I don't recall this as the case, my memory is a bit scratchy of the 2007 election but weren't Labors two major polices to scrap work choices and the NBN. I'll attempt to stick to the NBN as to not sidetrack the thread. I don't see how there is any possible way one can rationally reject Labors FTTH NBN model and then support the Liberal FTTN alternative. One is the right way to do it that will last 60+ years and the other will require ongoing upgrades/maintenance until either an alternative model is available or upgrading to FTTH which will cost significantly more in the future. You either do it right and do it once or you don't do it at all and we hold off until most Australians are complaining about their inadequate service and upgrade then.

We will be bumping this thread in 10-20 years time pointing out what white elephant this policy become as a few of us will have cherry picked FTTH because TPG etc decided it was economically viable to upgrade that suburb while the rest of us will wait for sensible policy.

Our copper must be replaced at some stage, it has already exceeded life expectancy and now would be the logical time to replace it.

 

[drsmith]

I don't recall this as the case, my memory is a bit scratchy of the 2007 election but weren't Labors two major polices to scrap work choices and the NBN. I'll attempt to stick to the NBN as to not sidetrack the thread. I don't see how there is any possible way one can rationally reject Labors FTTH NBN model and then support the Liberal FTTN alternative. One is the right way to do it that will last 60+ years and the other will require ongoing upgrades/maintenance until either an alternative model is available or upgrading to FTTH which will cost significantly more in the future. You either do it right and do it once or you don't do it at all and we hold off until most Australians are complaining about their inadequate service and upgrade then.

We will be bumping this thread in 10-20 years time pointing out what white elephant this policy become as a few of us will have cherry picked FTTH because TPG etc decided it was economically viable to upgrade that suburb while the rest of us will wait for sensible policy.

Our copper must be replaced at some stage, it has already exceeded life expectancy and now would be the logical time to replace it.

Apart from the top marginal income rate above $180k, Labor in 2007 went to the election matching the tax cuts the Coalition proposed during that campaign. There were obviously significant policy differences, but there were in the 2013 election as well. The question remains though as to what happened to Kevin Rudd the fiscal conservative ?
That Kevin Rudd wasn't evident in the 2013 campaign.

The NBN that Labor proposed in 2007 was not the grand plan that's being built now. The rollout schedule is also fantasy and the cost estimates are heading in that direction. Both FTTP and FTTN need to be critically analysed, not in the context of choosing one of the major party's specific plans, but to best determine the rollout mix.

What will be interesting in the immediate future is the results of the Coalition's audits. In the end, I suspect the outcome will be a compromise between the Coalition's and Labor's models with one current variable obviously being the state of the copper network.

If the Coalition's progress ends up in more difficulties than Labor's, they'll be judged accordingly by the electorate.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

NBN will be scrapped, it will be gorne.

Like the "Weather" claptrap agency that has been abolished.

gg

 

[sydboy007]

The NBN that Labor proposed in 2007 was not the grand plan that's being built now. The rollout schedule is also fantasy and the cost estimates are heading in that direction. Both FTTP and FTTN need to be critically analysed, not in the context of choosing one of the major party's specific plans, but to best determine the rollout mix.

What happened? Sol Trujillo.

Telstra put in a late non bid for the FTTN Labor was looking to build in 2007.

Once they realised that if Telstra didn't play ball it was going to cost way too much in court time and $$ to get the copper CAN back.

As you say, the performance of MT over the next 3 years will be a very hot topic at the next election.

I don't see how they can do a representative copper audit in 60-90 days. If we take 65K of pillars and need to test copper on 71% of them and test just 10% of the avg 200 lines connected we're looking at over 900K of lines to test.

Whether that will provide a true representation of the copper, I'm not sure. i think I'm lucky that my house was recently built so my copper is likely to be < 20 years old. The house near to me, could be 50+ years??

Who does the testing? Telstra? Don't they have a vested interest to have the copper good to get the highest sale price? If not Telstra then who has a workforce covering the breadth of Australia with all the access required to test copper on Telstra network? It's these sorts of Questions that should have been asked an answered before the election.

 

[Smurf1976]

A senior technician who is currently rolling out the NBN but performed an audit of Telstra's copper network some years ago - when Telstra itself was considering a FTTN rollout - told us that over 30 per cent of the records were wrong. He said that the only way to tell which copper line went from the turret to each house was to have teams of engineers (one at the turret and one at each address) test each line individually to check that it went to the right place.

You have (for example) a 100 pair cable with 70 of those pairs being needed for connections and the rest as spares.

Then a connection stops working. Rather than tracing the fault to a join (fixable) or the cable itself (not fixable unless that entire section is replaced) the easy way to fix a fault is to just connect to one of the spare copper pairs. That could be either at joins or all the way back to the exchange.

Many such faults have occurred over the years, and I can certainly believe that technicians would not have kept the paper records up to date over the past few decades. So you end up with cables which (to illustrate the point in layman's terms - the actual pairs are colour coded) have pair 1 at the exchange no longer being pair 1 when it gets to your house. Along the way it's been swapped to pair 73 and then onto pair 91, finally appearing as pair 43 at your house. Can it all be traced? Yes - but certainly not easily.

I have never worked for Telstra (or Telecom / PMG) but I have worked on non-Telstra copper communications networks spanning a considerable distance. We had these exact problems - things were changed over the years and the records weren't accurate. Why? Time pressure is one thing (fix it then go straight to the next job ASAP) and the reality is that most people who do technical work simply don't like any form of paperwork in the first place.

So to rely on the records is akin to driving around Sydney with a map that's 100 years old. The basic streets are much the same until you find that someone's built a rather well known bridge, various roads have been diverted or closed completely and that most of the buildings shown on the map no longer exist so can't be used as a reference point. So you find yourself parked beside what is shown as a coal and coke depot but which is now an office building and having no idea how to actually get onto that bridge.

To be honest, based on my general experience with power and communications cabling (plus dealing with water authorities, gas and Telstra itself) they quite likely aren't too sure where some of the cables actually go anyway. Here's one end, here's a different cable that connects to it somewhere, but where does it go and where are the joins?

All that could be worked out, it's not impossible to trace cables and sort out what pair joins to what, but it's a pretty big task in itself.

 

[Smurf1976]

i think I'm lucky that my house was recently built so my copper is likely to be < 20 years old. The house near to me, could be 50+ years??

Your house and even the cable in your street might be relatively new. But what other cables are between yours and the exchange? They might be 20 years old or it could well be that the "new" cable in your street simply connects as an extension of a previously existing cable that dates back to the 1950's.

It's the same with all utilities. You may have underground power cables but trace them back and you'll find that they are quite likely simply being fed from an overhead distribution line between the sub-station and the underground section. The sub-station itself could be anything from new to many decades old. And if you go back further well then it all comes from the same power stations whether your house is 5, 50 or 100 years old. Same with gas. Same with water.

If the whole area is new then the odds are that your cables are also fairly new, at least until you get to the other side of the local exchange, sub-station, water pumps or whatever. But unless you're living in a town that didn't exist at all until 20 years ago there is most likely some older stuff around somewhere.

My house was built in 1995 when the street was extended. But my water comes through the same pipes as the 50+ year old houses at the bottom of the street, and that water comes from a dam built in 1967 fed by a treatment plant that's the same age but which has had various additions and upgrades over the years. My power is underground but it's fed from an overhead distribution line just 200m down the road, that line itself being fed from a sub-station that was recently rebuilt but if you follow the transmission line right back then it ends up at a switchyard that's been in operation (with various modifications over the years) since 1957, that being 3 years longer than the power station right next to it. And so on.

This all comes about for the simple reason that all public utilities have been progressively developed over an extended period, with the new things added to the old by whatever means made the most sense at the time.

 

[sydboy007]

Your house and even the cable in your street might be relatively new. But what other cables are between yours and the exchange? They might be 20 years old or it could well be that the "new" cable in your street simply connects as an extension of a previously existing cable that dates back to the 1950's.

True, but for the FTTN the only relevant section is the "last mile". The quite old copper main cable will be replaced with fibre and connect to the pillar now turned into a nice Node Fridge.

I wish I could remember the web site that lets you do a speed test and then shows on a map the speeds those around you are getting.

I was quite surprised that people around me were significantly slower. I suppose I have one of the newest properties in my area and am thankful I have 12Mbs when a lot of those around me seemed to top out at around 6Mbs. To me that tends to indicate a lot of the copper around me is likley to have trouble meeting MTs minimum speed requirements.

Once you start having 20%+ remediation work you start to loose any form of economy of scale with a single network type.

Now that the Coalition has stopped releasing any information on refugee boat arrivals, I don't like our chances about getting much information released on the true state of the copper network should MT even attempt to get it before forcing his FTTN rollout to begin.