NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

Has it been proven to be NBN?

Readers can make their own judgement.

That's why I posted a link to the image.

 

[Calliope]

Poor ole Quigley. No wonder he looks worried. The job was always too big for him.

Fact-checking website Politifact Australia also entered the debate yesterday, finding Mr Turnbull's estimate that Labor's NBN would cost $94bn was "possible but unverifiable".

Politifact rejected Mr Albanese's claims that a joint parliamentary committee and Mr Quigley had found the $94bn figure had "no basis in fact".

"The government says NBN Co's corporate plan has been 'independently verified by KPMG and Greenhill Caliburn', but the KPMG study wasn't independent -- NBN Co paid it for the task -- and it took place before construction began," Politifact said. It said the Greenhill Caliburn review was a paper exercise that did not examine actual performance.

"Senior telecommunications analysts . . . shared one or more of Mr Turnbull's doubts about the NBN Co's assumptions.

"Mr Turnbull has gone further and quantified those doubts. His estimate may be on the high side, it may be on the low side."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...d-to-5bn-blowout/story-fn59niix-1226698764054

 

[sydboy007]

Poor ole Quigley. No wonder he looks worried. The job was always too big for him.



View attachment 53884
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...d-to-5bn-blowout/story-fn59niix-1226698764054

I dare say if politifact did the same for Turnbulls policy they'd say it is very unlikely to be achieved for under $30B let alone providing EVERYONE with a minnimum of 25Mbs in download speeds by Dec 31 2016. Unless MT has done some behind the scenes deals with vendors it will take probably 12 months to pick the right Nodes that can cope with the extreme weather for Australia - lots of floods and plenty of days where inside the larger nodes it will be a toasty 60+C, unless he's going to believe the bright glossy brochures.

 

[Calliope]

I dare say if politifact did the same for Turnbulls policy they'd say it is very unlikely to be achieved for under $30B let alone providing EVERYONE with a minnimum of 25Mbs in download speeds by Dec 31 2016. Unless MT has done some behind the scenes deals with vendors it will take probably 12 months to pick the right Nodes that can cope with the extreme weather for Australia - lots of floods and plenty of days where inside the larger nodes it will be a toasty 60+C, unless he's going to believe the bright glossy brochures.

Sorry Sydboy. The Turnbull version is the one you are going to get. The MT version offers me the better chance of getting improved speed broadband in my lifetime.

 

[sydboy007]

Sorry Sydboy. The Turnbull version is the one you are going to get. The MT version offers me the better chance of getting improved speed broadband in my lifetime.

You may be right, but at the moment I'd say the odds are quite long.

I'll console myself with yelling for Malcom to step down should he not meet his targets. Afterall, by his criteria to not meet the target is purely due to incompetency.

Unless MT does a very VERY sweet deal with Teltra, I don't see how he can achieve his targets. No other FTTN has been built by the non owner of the copper. All the examples of FTTN MT has given are being rolled out by the copper owners, generally the incumbent carrier. Even BTs ex-CEO says FTTN is not the way to go.

i say by Telstra shares now, because a Coalition victory = $$$ in Telstra's pockets.

 

[drsmith]

I dare say if politifact did the same for Turnbulls policy they'd say it is very unlikely to be achieved for under $30B let alone providing EVERYONE with a minnimum of 25Mbs in download speeds by Dec 31 2016. Unless MT has done some behind the scenes deals with vendors it will take probably 12 months to pick the right Nodes that can cope with the extreme weather for Australia - lots of floods and plenty of days where inside the larger nodes it will be a toasty 60+C, unless he's going to believe the bright glossy brochures.

Corner cutting with Labor's NBN to save on costs might also result in splitter boxes in the sun.

According to a Fairfax Media report yesterday, NBN Co chief operating officer Ralph Steffens briefed senior executives on Thursday on the "$5bn hole in construction costs" and outlined plans to re-engineer and re-design the NBN that "could save that and more".

New alterations would include reducing the number of fibre-optic strands contained in the costly broadband cabling, and installing splitter-boxes above Telstra's existing underground pits, rather than widening or replacing them, NBN spokesman Andrew Sholl confirmed.

The changes are expected to speed up the NBN's roll-out and reduce tampering with underground pits, which have spread deadly asbestos fibres in communities in recent months.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...d-to-5bn-blowout/story-fn59niix-1226698764054

 

[sails]

How labor thought they could simply roll out the NBN without serious research first is mind boggling. And this expensive thought bubble was supposedly scratched on the back on an envelope in an aeroplane...

 

[sydboy007]

How labor thought they could simply roll out the NBN without serious research first is mind boggling. And this expensive thought bubble was supposedly scratched on the back on an envelope in an aeroplane...

The coalition have all of 54 pages on their well thought out and designed policy. Pop over to Mals web page and you can get a copy of his broadband "policy".

The documents they've felt the public is worthy of access to raise more questions than answers - yes I've read them a number of times and found lots of promises without any detail on how they intend to achieve their gioals.

As yet MT has been too scared to release any metrics that could be used to see if his costings are even in the ball park. Pretty pathetic really. Maximum node to premises cable length is surely not a state secret.

So if you think Labor have gone in with little research, then by your reasoning the Liberals think sleeping on the text book is all the study you need.

I can just see Telstra in negotiations with MT. Thoedy says, "Mal I'm thinking of a number, an eleven digit number. You mightn't guess it now, but in a month, or two, you will get there. Mal, you remember Telstra already has a contract with the Federal Government, we don't need a new deal, but Mal, you really need a deal with us, so just hurry up and guess that number."

 

[drsmith]

Fairfax Media's hangout with Malcolm Turnbull today,

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...rnbull-20130804-2r72y.html?rand=1376863813765

It's mostly on the NBN but a few questions are asked on other issues.

 

[sydboy007]

So anyone who wants to upgrade to fibre under the NoBN had better not listen to MTs pricing as he seems to be very much out of kilter with what his beloved BT Openreach is charging

-----------------------------

Let’s take the maximum distance-based quoted by BT Openreach of £3500. Add the standard connection charge (‘fixed installation fee’) of £500 (flat, for all FttP OD installations), making £4000.
(We can’t overlook this extra £500 – it’s clearly stated on the same page).

Now convert it to $AU. This will result in an underestimate because UK wages are lower than ours, but we’ll stick with this fiction for now.

So we are up to $6940

BT quotes figures excluding VAT, but we will be expected to pay GST on our installation.
Now the maximum connection price is up to $7634 inc GST.

Using a conversion rate of £1 buys $1.735, and including the £500 fixed installation fee and GST, I have calculated what it may cost us at the quoted BT distance-based price points.

£ BT $ inc GST
200……..1335
1000……2862
1072……3000
1400……3626
2000……4771
2120……5000
3500……7634

So MT’s figure of $3000 correlates to a UK distance-based cost of £1072, or roughly what someone 200m from the node may pay, not 500m away.

 

[drsmith]

So anyone who wants to upgrade to fibre under the NoBN had better not listen to MTs pricing as he seems to be very much out of kilter with what his beloved BT Openreach is charging.

I wonder where that leaves the true cost of rolling out FTTH.

 

[sydboy007]

I wonder where that leaves the true cost of rolling out FTTH.

The current NBN benefits from economies of scale.

I think most would agree that one off fibre installations would be more expensive per premises than the cost of doing the whole street (or most of the country)

 

[drsmith]

Syd,

Did you see my post from the 17th ?

Those economies of scale are looking even less likely to be sufficient to keep Labor's project within budget.

 

[sydboy007]

Syd,

Did you see my post from the 17th ?

Those economies of scale are looking even less likely to be sufficient to keep Labor's project within budget.

You might be right, but with the mining construction boom ending I'd say there will be a fair amount of competitive pressure to keep construction costs down. Similar issues will bedevil MT as well.

The below starts to make it look like MT is going to need thousands of extra nodes to meet his minimum speed targets. I dare say that's going to cause a pretty big blow out in his budget.

NZ and Britain use 0.5mm copper (24 AWG) the majority of ours is 0.4mm (26 AWG) taking into account the skin effect of signal transmission through this medium and gains per join, attenuation could be as much as 40% higher in our own implementation of FTTN.

Higher attenuation (signal degradation) will mean Malcolm Nodes will have to be placed much closer to the premises than he's budgeted for. More nodes = higher CAPEX and OPEX.

Now MT has gone on about the new copper standards. Vectoring only has an effect over the 1st 400m (provided the copper is in good nick to begin with ie great in the lab, not so great in the real world of 30+ year old copper), g.fast uses even higher frequencies so it's only viable over the 1st 200m and attenuates even faster. So either these new standards are not relevant to the NoBN, or if they are then 60K worth of nodes is not going to be nearly enough to have maximum cable distances of somewhere between 200M and 400M. Combined that with the lower quality copper used in Australia than other countries and it's easy to see how the NoBN is going to blow it's budget very quickly.

Then there's the Telstra elephant in the room and what kind of hard bargain they will drive, though I think MT let the cat out of the bag when he said he'd have given Telstra a lot more of the construction work for the NBN, so he might use sweet contracts on the construction side to get Telstra to hand over the copper for less than a kidney and liver.

 

[drsmith]

You might be right, but with the mining construction boom ending I'd say there will be a fair amount of competitive pressure to keep construction costs down. Similar issues will bedevil MT as well.

If a slowdown in mining helps construction costs with Labor's project, it will help with the Opposition's as well and may result in them being able to roll out a greater proportion of FTTP, an outcome I'm sure you would welcome.

That being said, the evidence continues to grow that Labor's project is slipping even further behind schedule and over budget.

 

[Smurf1976]

Had an interesting conversation with an "A Class" licensed asbestos removalist today. This is an independent contractor, not employed to work on the NBN but they have looked at what is involved with doing this work "strictly following all the rules" as directed by Workplace Standards and also some specific Telstra requirements.

Let's just say you could buy a perfectly decent second hand car for the cost of removing one pit this way. Suffice to say his words were to the effect of "Australia will go broke if this becomes the norm". He doesn't think it necessary to go to such lengths (going too far), although he doesn't think the way it was being done before was acceptable either (unsafe). If the safety regulators do take the hard line then we're looking at $ billions. Exactly how many billion is anyone's guess, but a lot of money that's for sure.

I'm also told that there have been a huge number of people doing "asbestos awareness" courses in recent weeks with regard to NBN work. This is an awareness course, not a removalist course as such, but they can manage to end up with a B Class license to remove the stuff (this being a lower level license than an "A Class" license). How this fits with the apparently hard line being taken by safety regulators is anyone's guess at this stage - but the process of "strictly following all the rules" as described to me is a pretty full on job even to remove one pit.

At the very least, all the fuss seems to have created some issues in the asbestos removal industry generally, especially when it's in a public place. What was a simple job (and safe) now seems to require all sorts of things which greatly increase the cost (and I've checked with another contractor just to be sure - they said exactly the same thing).

 

[sydboy007]

At the very least, all the fuss seems to have created some issues in the asbestos removal industry generally, especially when it's in a public place. What was a simple job (and safe) now seems to require all sorts of things which greatly increase the cost (and I've checked with another contractor just to be sure - they said exactly the same thing).

At least it will be Telstra that is up for the bill, though NBN will wear the costs of the slowed rollout.

Asbestos, the gift that keeps on giving decades later :bad:

 

[sydboy007]

Not sure I fully agree with their tactics, but it ws interesting to see the reception Abbott Interneet received around the world

http://abbottsinternet.com.au/

 

[drsmith]

In the dying days of the current Labor administration, Fairfax now asks what-if ?

As things stand, even some of the NBN's most passionate advocates are starting to doubt that NBN Co can pull off the job at hand and there have been suggestions that even the likes of Ed Husic – the Prime Minister's parliamentary secretary for broadband – would like to see Telstra brought into the project.

As for Telstra itself, well, an on-schedule rollout would have meant the company netting plenty of cash from NBN Co as subscribers were shifted from copper to fibre, but would also have pretty much sealed its fate as solely a retail service provider rather than network operator in the fixed-broadband market.

As things currently stand Telstra's future remains unclear, there is every chance that under a Coalition government that it might not only play a significant role as a builder – not operator – of the NBN and might also get to keep its HFC (pay TV) network operational for broadband services.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/what-if-the-nbn-had-stayed-on-track-20130825-hv1hq.html

 

[Smurf1976]

Not sure I fully agree with their tactics, but it ws interesting to see the reception Abbott Interneet received around the world

The rest of the world would think if somewhat crazy if a country sold its' natural resources overseas for song, borrowed heaps of money to buy the same houses it already had and then couldn't afford decent internet.

Australia's political "leaders" are a joke. All of them.