NBN Rollout Scrapped

[Calliope]

What I find most amusing though, is that despite all the blustering about Labor's "project management incompetence", you cannot think of even a single example where the Coalition did any better.

I am glad you get some amusement, when, after your months of bluster and propaganda for NBN Co, you have reverted to the Gillard/Conroy practice of blaming the Coalition for Labor's failures to deliver, after inheriting a Coalition budget surplus of $21 billion.

 

[drsmith]

Responding to Dr Smith

That's bit of a is a bit of a different topic, but the situation you describe will be far worse at the end of 2016 under Labor's plan as there will still be large areas of the country that their rollout hasn't even reached.

1) Depends. You have already admitted you are sceptical of the FTTN rollout schedule, so slowing down the FTTP rollout then building up the FTTN rollout will prob see less people upgraded by 2016.

In practice, conflicting objectives can be managed.

Yes, but there's no denying that if you don't upgrade black spots first, then they are not really being true to what they say in their policy document.

3) I'm also curious on how they will go about the process of replacing faulty copper.

At what point do they know if it's faulty? Who will do the testing (hopefully not current techs who can barely fix an open circuit kind of fault).

If it's faulty is it replaced with copper or fibre? Will it turn into a lottery where if you have dud copper you will get free fibre?

If enough is faulty then do they just run fibre direct from the exchange, or do they install a node then fibre from there? Who pays for this?

1) That's what I feel will be the case, but that's as a general criticism of public projects and in particular when there's a lot of politics involved.

If however you insist on being partisan, then by what miracle is Labor going to get their NBN back on schedule ?

2) They never said they would prioritise black spots at the expense of all other objectives and no reasonable person would expect that they would.

3) That's a technical point upon which they haven't provided the detail beyond the broad principal of maintaining the copper where it is serviceable. Hopefully, it will be better than this,

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-...dreds-of-goodna-residents/4636472?section=qld

Labor's too is a lottery as to when householders get it. Up to 8-years vs the Coalition's <4 for min 25mb/s if they are on schedule and goodness knows how long if they are not.

The overall impression I now get from your responses is that you wish to engage only in a partisan discussion around the edges of their policy detail rather than on the actual detail the Coalition has provided.

That's perhaps reflective of the lack of substantive fault you've been able to establish in the central detail itself.

 

[drsmith]

On page 16 of the background paper, Malcolm Turnbull discusses the maintenance cost of the copper as follows,

NBN’S PERMANENTLY HIGHER CAPEX COSTS

In closing this discussion of some of the technical and economic considerations involved in broadband upgrade , it should be noted the very high capital costs of Labor’s FTTP NBN commitment don’t stop with ‘completion’ of the rollout.

As close study of a graphic illustrating capex after 2021 on page 74 of NBN Co’s 2012‐2015 Corporate Plan makes clear, the three NBN networks are forecast to require no less than $10.5 billion of capex in the six years after the NBN is ‘finished’.

Only $4.5 billion appears to be for extending the NBN’s coverage to newly built premises (assuming the forecast 1.3 million of these between 2021 and 2028 cost the same, on average, to serve as NBN Co forecasts for the 13.2 million it will have passed or covered by 2021.)

So what exactly does the other $6 billion of capex over six years represent? At face value, it appears an additional $1 billion of investment will need to be invested in the NBN each year on an ongoing basis – presumably to upgrade active electronics used in the FTTP network and the various elements of the fixed wireless and satellite networks.

Supporters of Labor’s NBN are fond of claiming the gradually rising maintenance costs for the copper network (currently estimated to be around $750 million a year, although Telstra does not disclose this figure) are a compelling reason to shift to FTTP.

Sometimes it is even claimed savings from copper maintenance on their own virtually pay for the upgrade. On the contrary, TUSMA’s $6.4 billion commitment to Telstra for the USO preserves the copper network serving the most remote 7 per cent of premises in Australia until 2032 – by far the most costly part of the copper to maintain will be in service and maintained at taxpayer expense for at least another twenty years.

And on top of that, close scrutiny of the NBN Co financial forecasts reveals an additional $1 billion of ongoing annual capex after the NBN is ‘completed’ – a materially larger sum than the $750 million currently spent on copper upkeep.

Together, these two realities demonstrate the utter falsehood of claims that a key economic gain from the NBN is money saved from not having to maintain the copper.

 

[drsmith]

More on the Goodna incident,

Goodna councillor Paul Tully says the manager of a local pizza store is "spitting chips" because the business can't take phone or online orders.

Other owners of service stations, a pet store and a psychology clinic had also complained, he said.

Mr Tully said goodwill towards the NBN in Goodna was diminishing and affected businesses should be compensated for loss of income.

Contractors had already annoyed residents by being abusive to householders, blocking access to driveways and not replacing turf on lawns that were ripped up, he said.

"Everyone was happy that we were the first rollout in Ipswich and there was a lot of goodwill when it started but it's slowly disappeared and it's probably all gone now," he told AAP.

One has to wonder whether NBN's contractors are now rushing the job in order to meet rollout targets.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...cuts-phone-cable/story-e6frf7kf-1226623441919

 

[NBNMyths]

I am glad you get some amusement, when, after your months of bluster and propaganda for NBN Co, you have reverted to the Gillard/Conroy practice of blaming the Coalition for Labor's failures to deliver, after inheriting a Coalition budget surplus of $21 billion.

Ummm. I see that, unable to answer what should be a rather simple request, you've reverted to your standard MO of adhom attacks and strawman arguments. I expected nothing less, of course.

I haven't blamed the coalition for anything yet. Come back to me in 10 years, and I might have something for you.

 

[NBNMyths]

Did you miss my post on where the money was spent myths?
It would appear you want to see spend, spend, spend.
That has to be weighed up against income from the spend.
I think Labor is selling a dud, you may have skin in the game.

Yes I did. And I have no issue with it. However, it's somewhat beside the point. I'm looking for an example of the Howard Government undertaking an infrastructure project that went to plan.

I had actually assumed there must be a few examples after 11 years of Government, but I'm yet to be presented with one.

It's not that they didn't do anything. There was the Darwin-Alice railway, but that didn't turn out very well.

My point, which seems so far to be accurate, is that the Coalition were no better at project management than the ALP. I still await presentation of any evidence to the contrary. So why do we assume that their management of the NBN will be any better than the ALP's?

 

[drsmith]

I still await presentation of any evidence to the contrary.

Border protection.

Have you got around to a detailed read of the Coalition's NBN documentation yet ?

 

[So_Cynical]

I had actually assumed there must be a few examples after 11 years of Government, but I'm yet to be presented with one.

Border protection.

lol outstanding success at saying no hardly rates as project management....we already know how good the noalition is at saying no.

And with their ANBN plan they are really just saying no to the NBN.

 

[drsmith]

lol outstanding success at saying no hardly rates as project management....we already know how good the noalition is at saying no.

Labor makes it look like a failed project.

They couldn't even maintain it let alone fix it.

 

[Calliope]

Ummm. I see that, unable to answer what should be a rather simple request, you've reverted to your standard MO of adhom attacks and strawman arguments. I expected nothing less, of course.

I haven't blamed the coalition for anything yet. Come back to me in 10 years, and I might have something for you.

Never mind Myths. You're a big boy now. You'll get over it. You never know... in time you might come to love FTTN.
You might even adjust to the fact that Turnbull can make Conroy look like the idiot that he is with his red underpants.

 

[NBNMyths]

Border protection.

Have you got around to a detailed read of the Coalition's NBN documentation yet ?

That's not an infrastructure project.

 

[drsmith]

That's not an infrastructure project.

Actually, it was at least in part. Detention centres had to be built.

I'm wondering why all the distractions. Have you lost interest in the NBN ?

 

[sptrawler]

That's not an infrastructure project.

Could you tell me an infrastructure project, this government has accomplished?

Yet they have gone from net surplus, to massive net debt, in real terms.

You may see paying down debt as a non achievement, I guess it's a generational thing.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes I did. And I have no issue with it. However, it's somewhat beside the point. I'm looking for an example of the Howard Government undertaking an infrastructure project that went to plan.

I had actually assumed there must be a few examples after 11 years of Government, but I'm yet to be presented with one.

It's not that they didn't do anything. There was the Darwin-Alice railway, but that didn't turn out very well.

My point, which seems so far to be accurate, is that the Coalition were no better at project management than the ALP. I still await presentation of any evidence to the contrary. So why do we assume that their management of the NBN will be any better than the ALP's?

That is pretty dumb, how the hell can you commit to an infrastructure project when you inherit a massive deficit?

First you have to unwind the running current account and then you have to put in place savings.
Then when it turns around you have to use surpluses to stimulate growth.
When that growth turns into surpluses you move ahead.
Jeez, I really gave you a lot of credit.
Obviously misplaced IMO

Any dumb @rse government can spend money, that's easy.
Show me what these goons have done, other than promise the world, delivered nothing, increased taxing and shot everything to $hit.

 

[drsmith]

It will be interesting to see what this reveals,

NBN Co's announcement comes as the company's chief executive, Mike Quigley, prepares to spend Friday being interrogated by a parliamentary committee over roll-out delays.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...happen-by-end-of-the-year-20130418-2i32b.html

From the man with the red underpants in hand,

At a Labor function last night Conroy slammed Opposition Spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull's Labor NBN costings as "bull****", and told this reporter that NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley would "set the record straight" tomorrow on the current anticipated delays and cost blowouts.

http://www.itwire.com/it-policy-new...l-nbn-costings-tomorrow-says-conroy-exclusive

1Gb service to be available by the end of the year.

The service will rival those offered by Google Fiber in the United States as well as fibre networks in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. Sony-backed internet service provider So-net claimed to become the world’s fastest residential broadband provider this week as it launched a two-gigabit service in Japan for approximately $50 a month.

However, NBN Co’s service is likely to be more expensive than those available in Asia, with its latest corporate plan stating it would charge a wholesale price of $150 per month for the service – four times the price of the maximum 100 Mbps speeds the government monopoly offers today.

The equipment used to deliver those speeds also means that few homes in a given street are likely to achieve those gigabit speeds simultaneously.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/broadband_speeds_will_be_times_faster_2jDgGQdxO7HBOaOeC71mYM

 

[sydboy007]

1) That's what I feel will be the case, but that's as a general criticism of public projects and in particular when there's a lot of politics involved.

If however you insist on being partisan, then by what miracle is Labor going to get their NBN back on schedule ?

2) They never said they would prioritise black spots at the expense of all other objectives and no reasonable person would expect that they would.

3) That's a technical point upon which they haven't provided the detail beyond the broad principal of maintaining the copper where it is serviceable. Hopefully, it will be better than this,

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-...dreds-of-goodna-residents/4636472?section=qld

Labor's too is a lottery as to when householders get it. Up to 8-years vs the Coalition's <4 for min 25mb/s if they are on schedule and goodness knows how long if they are not.

The overall impression I now get from your responses is that you wish to engage only in a partisan discussion around the edges of their policy detail rather than on the actual detail the Coalition has provided.

That's perhaps reflective of the lack of substantive fault you've been able to establish in the central detail itself.

I'm not sure how I'm being partisan. It's been nearly 5 years without an opposition broadband policy. They've harped on about the Government yet we've only been able even have a semblance of a debate for the last 1.5 weeks as to what the LNP are offering. I'm finding their policy document is making me ask more questions after answering a few.

2) Then at least they need to provide the rollout schedule to 2016, since the NBN has provided that detail already. I will say again that if you don't at least provide an estimate of how much copper needs to be replaced, then how can you claim to have a costed policy when the majority of cost savings are due to recycling the use of the copper currently in place? Surely a 10% change in copper replacement will have a significant impact on rollout schedule and costs? Is the current costings of Fraudband based on no copper replacement??

3) So the Govt is now responsible for anything a private company does on their behalf. If that is not being partisan I don't know what is. I do hope you will hold the LNP to the same if their Fraudband is forced on us.

I would argue up to 8 years seems a lot more realistic than what the LNP is saying at present. You seem to have hinted you at least partially agree with this.

Malcolm has provided no estimate as to how long negotiations with Telstra will take. No estimate as to ACCC involvement on the deal, no estimate on how much copper needs to be replaced, no information as to the process on copper replacement, no rollout schedule.

So far we have Malcolm telling us his Fraudband will be rolled out on time and on budget, but the ALPs NBN will have no such chance, and anything and everything that can go wrong will, so then he quotes the most UNLIKELY costing he could come up with and states it as if it WILL be the outcome that occurs.

If that's not partisan politics then what is??

Throw on top of this the outright LIES being told my Tony and Malcolm eg Tony stating that Oldham College in Geelong was not getting any upgrade to broadband infrastructure, when they are due to be connected to fibre on the NBN. You can google his tweet.

So Dr Smith, when is it a lie and when is it incompetence to provide the public with false information? Considering Malcom was as the college that day, the required level of incompetence is quite breath taking.

 

[sydboy007]

That is pretty dumb, how the hell can you commit to an infrastructure project when you inherit a massive deficit?

First you have to unwind the running current account and then you have to put in place savings.
Then when it turns around you have to use surpluses to stimulate growth.
When that growth turns into surpluses you move ahead.
Jeez, I really gave you a lot of credit.
Obviously misplaced IMO

Any dumb @rse government can spend money, that's easy.
Show me what these goons have done, other than promise the world, delivered nothing, increased taxing and shot everything to $hit.

IF the ALP had had tax revenue as high as Howard had, then I'd find it easier to blame them for the deficit.

Howard had the highest taxing Govt in the histroy of Australia. The current ALP Govt has never had tax revenues as high as the lowest level of the previous LNP Govt - see below graph.

So either Howard taxed us too much, or the ALP isn't taxing us enough.

 

[drsmith]

I would argue up to 8 years seems a lot more realistic than what the LNP is saying at present. You seem to have hinted you at least partially agree with this.

Where ?

Pls show quote.

 

[moXJO]

IF the ALP had had tax revenue as high as Howard had, then I'd find it easier to blame them for the deficit.

Howard had the highest taxing Govt in the histroy of Australia. The current ALP Govt has never had tax revenues as high as the lowest level of the previous LNP Govt - see below graph.

So either Howard taxed us too much, or the ALP isn't taxing us enough.

costello’s last budget had revenue of 245b and expenditure of 235b. in 2012 the govt has forecast revenue of 376b and similar expenditure. This means that revenue has risen by 52% from 2007 and expenditure has risen by 60%.

Heres some more

expendiure as a % of GDP was 25.4% in 2010-11, 25.3% in 2011-12
and forecast to be 24.3% of GDP in 2012/13.
Compare that to costello’s projected expenditure in 2010-11 of 21.8% of GDP. A quick flick through the data also shows that fed expendure was around 22.5% of GDP in 2000/01 falling to 20.8% in 2003/4

AND crucially costello forecast for revenue of 287b in 2010/11 but infact actual revenue according to the budget papers has labor receiving revenue of 309.9b. So they had 22b more than projected AND they still overspent by 51.5 billion

 

[drsmith]

On time and on budget now according to Mike Quigley. Is that though with red underpants on his head ?

They're certainly going to have to kick it up even to get within the revised range of 190,000 to 220,000.

The document shows NBN Co had passed approximately 68,000 existing homes and businesses by the end of March, slightly up from the 46,100 premises it said it passed three months prior but well below initial targets aimed at passing 286,000 premises by June 30.

They're also now considering retaining the dreaded copper in apartments,

NBN Co is reviewing alternative ways of connecting apartments to the national broadband network, despite Labor’s commitment to connecting every home and business directly with optic fibre cabling.

The government monopoly’s chief technology officer Gary McLaren told a parliamentary hearing overseeing the NBN on Friday he was studying the use of fibre-to-the-basement technology instead of fibre-to-the-home.

Long advocated by the Coalition and part of its proposed alternative network, the technology connects fibre to the basement of an apartment before using existing copper wiring to get broadband into apartments.

It is seen as a cheaper and easier way of connecting apartments to faster broadband, particularly in older buildings where it may be difficult to install new cables.

Labor’s broadband policy is to connect fibre optic cabling into every single apartment in the fibre footprint.

The review comes despite Communications Minister Stephen Conroy calling the Coalition’s plan to use the same technology a “disgrace”.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_co_reviewing_apartment_fibre_DGpDLGsnhLSz5b5bhMdK6I