- Joined
- 28 October 2008
- Posts
- 8,609
- Reactions
- 39
Even if it wasn't, 2 out of 3 would still be pretty bad.
NBN Rollout Scrapped
- Thread starter Garpal Gumnut
- Start date
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
The arguement is does the premise require fibre? will it ever require fibre?
At present, definitely not, however if a house wants it they can pay for it.
Will it require it in the future who knows?
Take Kalgoorlie for instance, I think the superpit has a life expectancy of 10years left. There is every reason to believe in 20 years it will be a lot smaller than it is now, so a lot of the roll out there`will be a waste.
There are a lot of people who get all romantic about having bling speed internet, the question is, why?
I supose for the same reason a lot of people buy 315kw bright purple Commodore SS cars with brembo 6 spot carbon fibre brakes.
I don't have one, you might and I guarantee you can get to the shops a lots faster than me, so what! My car still gets me there in a timely manner.
- Joined
- 28 October 2008
- Posts
- 8,609
- Reactions
- 39
For interest, some blog articles of the Coalition's NBN costings,
http://www.zdnet.com/au/coalitions-nbn-analysis-needs-more-analysis-7000013977/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/14/coalition_broadband_plan/
http://www.zdnet.com/au/coalitions-nbn-analysis-needs-more-analysis-7000013977/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/14/coalition_broadband_plan/
- Joined
- 12 December 2005
- Posts
- 544
- Reactions
- 0
Based on the usage and demand patterns to date, what's your best guess?
- Joined
- 10 December 2012
- Posts
- 3,632
- Reactions
- 9
The zdnet article is well worth a read.
I find it quite suite scary that the LNP have a policy that is based mainly on the fact that using the copper will save costs over rolling out fibre, yet cannot answer simple questions like:
* How much copper will need to be replaced?
* What kind of testing will be performed to determine if the copper is up to standard, and who will do this testing? Will the test results be freely available? Will copper replacement information be freely available?
* How long will it take to determine the vendor for the nodes? Do they plan to use a single vendor or go multi vendor?
* How long will it take to redesign the NBN from a fibre rollout to an FTTN rollout?
* When will the first node be installed?
* At what point will the rollout hit it's peak monthly install of nodes?
* How long from a node being installed till a premise is connected?
* How come everything with the NBN will go wrong, but everything with the NoBN will go perfectly right? (LNP have just as poor track record at infrastructure delivery as any other political party eg Sydney Airport line or Adelaide Darwin rail line)
* When does MT expect to have a new agreement with Telstra signed and access to the copper secured? Will this new agreement have to be voted on by shareholders?
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
For the people I know who don't bother with the internet at all, my guess is they don't want it.
Look if I was a mad keen internet user, computer user or it related to my work or profession, I would probably be banging the drum also.
As I'm not, I just see it like anything else you build, it has to makes sense in an outcomes verses investment.
If it was critical everyone needed it and couldn't manage without it, well then do it. However that isn't the case, lots of people don't use it, if they do want to use it, it is allready available.
What we are talking about is the difference between, bloody good and absolutely brilliant.
Somewhat like comparing a commodore with a ferrari, they both do the job the ferrari does it faster.
The commodore will get you where you want to go and also pick up the shopping. The ferrari does all that and you can race it on the weekend.
I'm happy with the commodore, you want a ferrari, I'm o.k with that, but you shouldn't expect me and everyone else to pay for it, when it isn't necessary.
- Joined
- 10 December 2012
- Posts
- 3,632
- Reactions
- 9
The arguement is does the premise require fibre? will it ever require fibre?
At present, definitely not, however if a house wants it they can pay for it.
Will it require it in the future who knows?
Take Kalgoorlie for instance, I think the superpit has a life expectancy of 10years left. There is every reason to believe in 20 years it will be a lot smaller than it is now, so a lot of the roll out there`will be a waste.
There are a lot of people who get all romantic about having bling speed internet, the question is, why?
I supose for the same reason a lot of people buy 315kw bright purple Commodore SS cars with brembo 6 spot carbon fibre brakes.
I don't have one, you might and I guarantee you can get to the shops a lots faster than me, so what! My car still gets me there in a timely manner.
If you get a better service, and it doesn't cost you any more, then what's the problem?
At least when you sign up for a cheap 12Mbs plan you get that speed. I think in my work place I'm the only person who gets that kind of speed (only just). Most of my colleges are < 6Mbs with relatively unstable lines. They're usually ringing up when it rains to be put back onto a stability profile for a few days till things dry out again.
It is a user pays network, and so far it seems people DO want the higher speeds, so let them subsidise the people who want to keep a basic internet connection, and heck those people can be a lot better off if they cancel their land line and go VOIP. My Dad's $40 a month better off by doing that.
- Joined
- 10 December 2012
- Posts
- 3,632
- Reactions
- 9
I find that comparisson to focus on only 1 small aspect of the NBN.
The biggest issue is that it provides a highly reliable service. I know too many people with unreliable ADSL, and I see far far too many problems at work for customers due to rotting copper.
We have small businesses who are off the air for 3+ days because of copper line faults. In QLD and Northern NSW it can take 10 workings days at the moment to get a field tech to test a line. I would argue the NBN will reduce that to 10-15% of the current faults. No idea what the productivity improvement will be, but it would certainly be a huge extra dividend on top of all the other benefits.
- Joined
- 12 December 2005
- Posts
- 544
- Reactions
- 0
I absolutely agree, if it is worth the investment. But given that you are not a "mad keen internet user, computer user or it related to my work or profession", why would you not take on board more favourably the positions of those who are far more intimately familiar with regard to what is expected to be needed for the country as whole, not just for them now, but also for the next generation?
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
With time frames, nobody seems to be worried about the NBN times.
With copper issues one would expect that faults will be by exception as is the case now. When it is connected if the home owner is happy with the internet response, everything moves on.
If the home owner isn't, one assumes the pair is checked and repaired, renewed or replaced by fibre.
The big saving will be, all the homes that don't care one way or another and are transferred seamlessly.
With the NBN, every one is done regardless if they require it or not, that is unbelievable overkill. Every dump every highrise block of units retrofitted. It is just dumb.IMO
- Joined
- 10 December 2012
- Posts
- 3,632
- Reactions
- 9
If the register is right then it looks like MT has been either very tricky or totally incompetent with his OPEX figures.
Close to $2B wrong for 2014 and 2015.
It's a shame most of the media are not giving the same kind of scrutiny to the LNP Fraudband as they have done to the NBN.
I wonder if they used the same mob who gave the LNP the $10B costing black hole prior to the last election to do their figures for Fraudband???
- Joined
- 10 December 2012
- Posts
- 3,632
- Reactions
- 9
Because the LNP are making time frames a HUGE issue with the NBN and a central selling point for their Fraudband.
I for one find it almost impossible to believe they can rollout 60,000 nodes by the end of 2016 to anyone not getting fixed wireless or satellite, or lucky enough to have FTTP installed.
So if you are going to criticise the NBN for it, then they should have pretty detailed rollout schedules in place so the punters know how much sooner they will get their upgrade.
- Joined
- 12 December 2005
- Posts
- 544
- Reactions
- 0
Do you mean the media organisation and subsidiary outlets that helped launch the policy?
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
I agree with that completely, it doesn't matter which one goes ahead, it will be a slow process.
The logistics are huge, however it obviously would be quicker if you don't have to run to the premise then install new equipment.
But as you say fabricating and fitting out 60,00 cabinets in 3 years doesn't sound plausible either.
My guess is if Libs do FTTN, it will take 6 - 10 years, but will be completed.
If they continue with FTTP it will eventually be so drawn out, difficult and expensive, it will be abandoned or carried out like the underground power retrofit.
Where suburbs are selected by the state of the overhead system and upgraded by priority.
Then the local government and ratepayers are charged as their area is done.
Only my thoughts.
The same media companies that have, and still stand to lose a lot, from the increased movement away from traditional media?
- Joined
- 9 July 2006
- Posts
- 6,018
- Reactions
- 1,656
If you are going to do/build/undertake something, do it right, do it right first time. I have followed this rule for a while now.
Why 'double handle' and do it twice.
Save time/money.
Governments aren't very good at this, private sector is 'usually' much better. If you live in Sydney, you only have to look at the M2/M4 upgrade. Should have been done right first time!
NBN ~$40 billion?
Telstra spending $1 billion per year on copper upkeep.
Australian GDP $1.37 trillion (2011).
No brainer to install a NBN (of some sort).
Australia is a 'huge' country, not very densely populated.
FTTN?
FTTH?
If past history is anything to go by, technology advances at an alarming rate.
I still remember downloading 5mb MP3's songs that took forever. Now we can get 10gb, 1080p movies faster.
Build it, but do it right, first time.
The Libs NBN plan doesn't look very convincing to be honest, 25mbps.....
ALP is a like a drunker sailor on a night out, first night back on shore (regarding the money they are wasting on various schemes)....max of 100mbps, when Google is already rolling out 1gbps in Kansas with Texas the next state to get it.
Google Fiber might even be fully rolled out in the USA before the ALP NBN is completed....
Why 'double handle' and do it twice.
Save time/money.
Governments aren't very good at this, private sector is 'usually' much better. If you live in Sydney, you only have to look at the M2/M4 upgrade. Should have been done right first time!
NBN ~$40 billion?
Telstra spending $1 billion per year on copper upkeep.
Australian GDP $1.37 trillion (2011).
No brainer to install a NBN (of some sort).
Australia is a 'huge' country, not very densely populated.
FTTN?
FTTH?
If past history is anything to go by, technology advances at an alarming rate.
I still remember downloading 5mb MP3's songs that took forever. Now we can get 10gb, 1080p movies faster.
Build it, but do it right, first time.
The Libs NBN plan doesn't look very convincing to be honest, 25mbps.....
ALP is a like a drunker sailor on a night out, first night back on shore (regarding the money they are wasting on various schemes)....max of 100mbps, when Google is already rolling out 1gbps in Kansas with Texas the next state to get it.
Google Fiber might even be fully rolled out in the USA before the ALP NBN is completed....
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
But even with the FTTN, businesses will get fibre to the premise.
There seems to be trouble for people to differentiate between houses and businesses.
The issue I have is every house and block of flats IMO don't need it.
Businesses do and the coalition is saying, they will get fibre to the premise.
Just not all residential properties.
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,753
- Reactions
- 24,731
Again, even with the coalitions plan, your workplace gets fibre.
The difference is normal houses, resedential houses, won't.
Sorry for the bolds, but you keep saying businesses keep copper, when according to MT they get fibre.
Does anyone have an answer to why fiber can be rolled out by private companies like google to cities in other countries but couldn't be in Australia?
The "Australia is much bigger" argument comes up alot. However, I think the failing with that argument is the mass of Australian population is located in Capital cities and a few regional cities.
I've always wondered why the government couldn't have subsidised an NBN rollout for regional area's below a certain population cutoff and left the major cities open for private NBN equivalent rollouts.
- Joined
- 28 October 2008
- Posts
- 8,609
- Reactions
- 39
If you are referring to maintenance of the copper network, that's covered under capex on page 16 of the background paper.
Lower opex in 2014 and 2015 might be related to the rollout schedule of the Coalition's FTTN.
