CWN - Crown Resorts

[notting]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited



Continuing the theme of a bad New Year in Macau
Whilst CWN australia is sitting high, it's slightly bigger brother on the Nasdac is still looking to correct or go bearish.
May fill it's gap on weak volume then another and more lasting smack down if it gets past support at 19 with attitude.
Will be looking to fatten up on the CWN short.

 

[notting]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Stopped out.
I think it's still there but lots of hype to keep it running and they grew 11% in Feb which is much less than what's been happening but still pretty stella.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

It's still gangbusters here.

A chart of CWN over the last 12 months.

gg

 

[notting]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Mainland Chinese influx prompts Macau to mull visitor cap.
HHHmmm money walks?

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1189367/mainland-chinese-influx-prompts-macau-mull-visitor-cap

 

[skc]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Stopped out.
I think it's still there but lots of hype to keep it running and they grew 11% in Feb which is much less than what's been happening but still pretty stella.

I had a couple of signals to pair TTS and TAH against CWN which used to perform quite well. But the stock's characteristics have changed substantially with TTS / TAH being yield plays while CWN is all about China-facing and Macau money. It just didn't seem to make sense going short CWN on its momentum.

 

[notting]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Yes till now the trend has been the other way.
What got my short interest was the idea of building a huge loss making hotel to kind of bribe the NSW gov to give CWN a leg up.
That's a big elephant.
CWN in Melbourne only became manageable when Kerry strung up a deal to get out of having to build the second hotel
tower.

But yeah, Macau carries the day, but the case is building.
About face

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100549663

Not forgetting what happened to Vegas during the GFC.

 

[Huskar]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

This is a very amateurish view but I think Macau might face short term hiccups as well. With the incoming Chinese government emphasis on cleaning up corruption I have read that this means a lot less money flowing into Macau/Hong Kong at least while the authorities try to crack down.

I can't see it being a long term thing tho..

Shorting gamblers is always a gamble

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Jumped in at $12.71 today. I am betting on Crown getting approval for Barangaroo.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

PWC report (paid for by EGP) reckons CWN's Barangaroo proposal would bring in only an additional 10,000 visitors to Sydney each year:

The tourism boost to NSW from James Packer's proposed $1 billion hotel and casino at Barangaroo has been put at an extra 10,000 visitors a year, well short of the billionaire's claim it would ''draw millions of visitors to Sydney''.

The finding, in a confidential PricewaterhouseCoopers report obtained by Fairfax Media, suggests the total tourism impact of the proposed Crown Sydney resort would be an increase of only 0.04 per cent.

...

Its key finding is that without Crown Sydney providing competition in Sydney, the Star is estimated to generate $1.1 billion worth of economic activity and about 8000 jobs annually by 2025.

In contrast, it estimates Crown Sydney would generate economic activity worth $90 million and 810 jobs annually. The figures are significant lower than the findings by the Allen Consulting report, which suggested annual economic growth of up to $440 million a year and an extra 1400 jobs each year from the Crown project.

The report also warns that if Crown Sydney is built, the NSW government would receive $220 million less in gambling tax revenue between 2020 and 2035. A Crown spokesman declined to comment. The company has previously said it believed that building an ''iconic'' development at Barangaroo would attract visitors.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/star-looks-beyond-pyrmont-20130622-2opgf.html

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

CWN out-bids EGP for second casino in NSW. Both companies were put into trading halt prior to the announcement today:

A second casino is set to open in Sydney from 2019 after James Packer’s plans for a $1.5 billion hotel and gambling resort at Barangaroo received NSW government backing.

NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell said the proposal for Crown's hotel and gambling resort at Barangaroo could proceed to "stage three" of the assessment, but it was not yet a licence to build.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/pack...-to-proceed-to-next-stage-20130704-2pdrv.html

 

[DJG]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Does anybody know if the regulator/authority who approves the plan is relying on Packers 'word' when it comes to keeping it as a 'high roller only' type casino. Or is it by law/contract he will be refined to X amount of pokies machines?

I remember seeing a news report and one of the top brass at Echo mentioned he will obviously state it's a 'high roller only' type casino, then 3 or so years down the track all of a sudden the joint is filled with pokie machines, much like Melbourne Crown.

What's everyone's take on it? Do you reckon he'll deceive and burn them?

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

I think they are pretty ok with keeping poker machines out of it.

The 'VIP' condition should be in legislation/regulations, but it is how it is defined that will be important. I've read 'VIP' to mean a person only needs to sign up to be a member, or someone who plays $20 on roulette, or the traditional high roller who us peasants never see.

 

[banco]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Does anybody know if the regulator/authority who approves the plan is relying on Packers 'word' when it comes to keeping it as a 'high roller only' type casino. Or is it by law/contract he will be refined to X amount of pokies machines?

I remember seeing a news report and one of the top brass at Echo mentioned he will obviously state it's a 'high roller only' type casino, then 3 or so years down the track all of a sudden the joint is filled with pokie machines, much like Melbourne Crown.

What's everyone's take on it? Do you reckon he'll deceive and burn them?

No doubt it will be in regulations but Packer only needs one more Premier in his pocket (he's already got one) to get the rules changed and no way they get changed back.

 

[DJG]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

What happens when Packer provides the NSW Government an ultimatum, something along the lines of, "I can't meet those guaranteed payments to you as we underestimated how much income from the high rollers we would receive, therefore we need pokies machines otherwise thousands of employees will lose their jobs here" - Put's the blame game back on the NSW Gov't. If NSW Gov't don't give them the pokies machines and will 'inevitably' send those employees out of work, or they look bad and hand out more pokies machine licenses, lose lose for them. - I suppose most governments are very short sighted and will worry about the consequences down the track when they arise.

That's my anyway..

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

What happens when Packer provides the NSW Government an ultimatum, something along the lines of, "I can't meet those guaranteed payments to you as we underestimated how much income from the high rollers we would receive, therefore we need pokies machines otherwise thousands of employees will lose their jobs here" - Put's the blame game back on the NSW Gov't. If NSW Gov't don't give them the pokies machines and will 'inevitably' send those employees out of work, or they look bad and hand out more pokies machine licenses, lose lose for them. - I suppose most governments are very short sighted and will worry about the consequences down the track when they arise.

That's my anyway..

Good point. But I suppose it wouldn't be the first company to hold the government ransom like that...*cough* Holden *cough*

 

[DJG]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

Good point. But I suppose it wouldn't be the first company to hold the government ransom like that...*cough* Holden *cough*

I'm sure there will be plenty more to come also! It'll be interesting to see how it plays out nonetheless

 

[banco]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

If you read the fine print the whole thing is a con job by O'Farrell and Packer. Yes they can't offer pokies but they will be able to offer an unlimited number of electronic roulette, blackjack etc. gaming machines. I'm sure high rollers really go in for tacky electronic roulette games.

The whole thing looks dodgy as hell. A billionaire tells the State Government what he wants and he gets it. I think O'Farrell would have thrown in a blowjob if Packer had asked.

 

[DJG]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

The whole thing looks dodgy as hell. A billionaire tells the State Government what he wants and he gets it. I think O'Farrell would have thrown in a blowjob if Packer had asked.

I think you've summed up anything further I may of said! So true!!

 

[Tyler Durden]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

If you read the fine print the whole thing is a con job by O'Farrell and Packer. Yes they can't offer pokies but they will be able to offer an unlimited number of electronic roulette, blackjack etc. gaming machines. I'm sure high rollers really go in for tacky electronic roulette games.

The whole thing looks dodgy as hell. A billionaire tells the State Government what he wants and he gets it. I think O'Farrell would have thrown in a blowjob if Packer had asked.

And that's why it was such a no-brainer to dump Echo shares for Crown shares.

 

[banco]

Re: CWN - Crown Limited

O'Farrell does as he's told once again:

James Packer wants energy-intensive VIP gaming rooms at his luxury Sydney casino exempted from standard measures of green performance, casting doubt on claims Barangaroo will be a ''world leader in sustainability''.

Mr Packer's company Crown says methods used to assess the environmental ratings of other buildings at Barangaroo should not apply to the high-roller gaming areas, because the lighting and special air conditioning in smoking areas will require a huge amount of power.

A government panel that assessed Crown's bid, headed by former banker David Murray, recommended the exemption be granted, and the casino instead adopt ''world's best practice'' for VIP gaming facilities.

The state government is finalising its deal with Crown for the $1.5 billion hotel-casino aimed at wealthy Asian and domestic high rollers.
Advertisement

A spokeswoman for Premier Barry O'Farrell said existing methods for measuring green performance were ''not designed for casinos'' and the Crown proposal would likely be subject to a different method.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/prop...-barangaroo-20130802-2r4ul.html#ixzz2atf9jTEa