NBN Rollout Scrapped

[So_Cynical]

We will see. However there are currently 40 ISPs offering NBN services, many using POI aggregators like NextGen to help them compete with the likes of Telstra et al, by overcoming the cost of connecting to every POI. I should also also point out on this topic that the coalition's NBN will have the same issue because the reasoning Simon gave for his assessment is the 121 POI situation, and that will not change one iota under the coalition policy.

Wondering what your thinking on the 121 POI's is?

Perhaps the noalition will want to go back to the 2 POI's in every capital plan? apparently its cheaper?

 

[medicowallet]

Nice cherrypick. I notice you only mentioned one of my examples. Wonder why that was...


I just gave you three operators. One expensive, one middle and one cheap:

Telstra, the market leader. Overpriced they may be, but the fact is that they alone command ~50% of the market, and therefore their speed/pricing is the comparison that a very sizeable chunk of Australians will be comparing, and they charge the same for 25Mbps NBN as they do for ADSL2+.

Optus, the #2 broadband operator, likewise charge the same for 25Mbps NBN as they do for ADSL2+, at considerably lower prices than Telstra.

So in those two ISPs alone, there is probably 60-70% of the market selling 25Mbps NBN for the same price as ADSL2+. You don't think that is relevant? In your mind the only relevant ISP is iiNet, since their pricing supports your conclusion?


Then there's Pennytel (owned by iiNet, BTW) selling unlimited-data/unlimited-phone 25Mbps NBN bundles for $60/month, which is $8 a month less than their ADSL2+ bundles.


Perhaps there will be ISP consolidation, perhaps not. We will see. However there are currently 40 ISPs offering NBN services, many using POI aggregators like NextGen to help them compete with the likes of Telstra et al, by overcoming the cost of connecting to every POI. I should also also point out on this topic that the coalition's NBN will have the same issue because the reasoning Simon gave for his assessment is the 121 POI situation, and that will not change one iota under the coalition policy.


sptrawler...
Yes, I think you're right to some extent. Hence my comment that the non-tech heads will realise the blunder in 10 years!

I can tell by your post that you don't understand market fundamentals etc.

I can tell that you don't understand the problems with monopolies.

I don't see how using uncompetitive providers who are gouging ADSL2 customers is really relevant, no, because the NBN is supposed to drive competitive pricing is it not?

However as you can summise, I actually advocate people paying for the service ( ie paying for a good speed at a reasonable price) I just don't think that we should be wasting money NOW for a service which we MIGHT need in 15 years time,

when we can use the $$$$ NOW to make way more monet NOW.

I am pissing up a wall against your arguments, as you want to give the majority faster pr0n and illegal downloads,

I want improved exports allowing better healthcare, education and living conditions.

and only one of our two proposals can deliver what I believe is right for an ageing population
MW

PS I would Love to have 10000 speed internet NOW, but it truly is not needed, and contrary to what your beloved Labor party believes, there are not bottomless pits of money, we all have to pay for stuff, which leaves us less able to afford other stuff.

 

[sptrawler]

I can tell by your post that you don't understand market fundamentals etc.

I can tell that you don't understand the problems with monopolies.

I don't see how using uncompetitive providers who are gouging ADSL2 customers is really relevant, no, because the NBN is supposed to drive competitive pricing is it not?

However as you can summise, I actually advocate people paying for the service ( ie paying for a good speed at a reasonable price) I just don't think that we should be wasting money NOW for a service which we MIGHT need in 15 years time,

when we can use the $$$$ NOW to make way more monet NOW.

I am pissing up a wall against your arguments, as you want to give the majority faster pr0n and illegal downloads,

I want improved exports allowing better healthcare, education and living conditions.

and only one of our two proposals can deliver what I believe is right for an ageing population
MW

PS I would Love to have 10000 speed internet NOW, but it truly is not needed, and contrary to what your beloved Labor party believes, there are not bottomless pits of money, we all have to pay for stuff, which leaves us less able to afford other stuff.

I think you have answered your own question.

You won't stop So-Cynical beating the drum, when Labor go down the toilet, he will probably join the Salvos.
Which to my thinking, would be more beneficial.

 

[medicowallet]

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/454925/small_businesses_don_t_see_benefit_nbn_report/

No way!!

Only 30% of small businesses believe they will derive any benefit from the NBN...

And I still hold firm that this is a massive overguestimate.


So to give these 30% of small businesses access to something that might benefit their businesses, lets cripple the mining industry, education and other industry to the tune of $50 billion dollars...

Well done

MW

 

[NBNMyths]

So to give these 30% of small businesses access to something that might benefit their businesses, lets [highlight]cripple the mining industry, education and other industry to the tune of $50 billion dollars... [/highlight]

Well done

MW

Would you care to explain how the NBN will do this? Feel free to insert as much detail as required to support your argument.

Don't forget to factor the coalition's $35bn+ alternative plan into your calculations. And also, let us know by what method building the NBN will cripple all these industries, based on the known funding arrangements (ie the issue of infrastructure bonds) for the NBN, and therefore its relevance to the funding or taxation of the industries you cited.

 

[NBNMyths]

Wondering what your thinking on the 121 POI's is?

Perhaps the noalition will want to go back to the 2 POI's in every capital plan? apparently its cheaper?

I think there are pros and cons to both. The 14 certainly made life easy for smaller ISPs, but it wasted already-present infrastructure for the bigger ISPs.

I don't think the coalition can/would go back as they complained about the 14POI model to begin with, and the 121 are all built and operational now in any case.

 

[medicowallet]

Would you care to explain how the NBN will do this? Feel free to insert as much detail as required to support your argument.

Don't forget to factor the coalition's $35bn+ alternative plan into your calculations. And also, let us know by what method building the NBN will cripple all these industries, based on the known funding arrangements (ie the issue of infrastructure bonds) for the NBN, and therefore its relevance to the funding or taxation of the industries you cited.

Are you 12 with your constant rolleyes?

Anyhoo, let me explain.

1. $50 billion has to come from somewhere
2. The government directs this to NBN at the expense of other infrastructure projects with greater ROI
3. This in effect decreases the ability of those industries to grow.
4. This in effect screws them ( and also the beneficiaries of taxation of those projects )

I don't even think that a FTTN is needed ATM so I hold that it is $50 billion wasted, just that the coalition's plan is $15 billion less wasted.

So,
Mature up, stop rolling eyes and start thinking of the community at large and not your internet gaming habits and pings,

MW

 

[NBNMyths]

Are you 12 with your constant rolleyes?

Anyhoo, let me explain.

1. $50 billion has to come from somewhere
2. The government directs this to NBN at the expense of other infrastructure projects with greater ROI
3. This in effect decreases the ability of those industries to grow.
4. This in effect screws them ( and also the beneficiaries of taxation of those projects )

I don't even think that a FTTN is needed ATM so I hold that it is $50 billion wasted, just that the coalition's plan is $15 billion less wasted.

So,
Mature up, stop rolling eyes and start thinking of the community at large and not your internet gaming habits and pings,

MW

Yes, the "$50bn" has to come from somewhere....

~$30bn will come from the issue of Australian Infrastructure bonds.
~$11bn will come from NBN Co raising on debt markets
The rest is lease and migration payments to Telstra over time, and comes from NBN Co's operating revenue.

Please give an example of an alternative spend the Government could make, and (more importantly) how that spend would provide an ROI. Also, how not spending that money will cripple those industries. Last time I looked, the mining industry wasn't struggling and the education "industry" were extremely strong supporters of the NBN due to the additional opportunities it will provide.


I should also point out that the construction of the NBN itself directly leads to job creation (construction, IT), manufacturing industry support (eg: fibre cable, cabinets, construction materials) plus it leads to additional company tax, income tax and GST revenues.


Oh, and I haven't played an online game since I dabbled in Starcraft 1, which was probably 7 or 8 years ago.

 

[medicowallet]

Yes, the "$50bn" has to come from somewhere....

~$30bn will come from the issue of Australian Infrastructure bonds.
~$11bn will come from NBN Co raising on debt markets
The rest is lease and migration payments to Telstra over time, and comes from NBN Co's operating revenue.

Please give an example of an alternative spend the Government could make, and (more importantly) how that spend would provide an ROI. Also, how not spending that money will cripple those industries. Last time I looked, the mining industry wasn't struggling and the education "industry" were extremely strong supporters of the NBN due to the additional opportunities it will provide.


I should also point out that the construction of the NBN itself directly leads to job creation (construction, IT), manufacturing industry support (eg: fibre cable, cabinets, construction materials) plus it leads to additional company tax, income tax and GST revenues.


Oh, and I haven't played an online game since I dabbled in Starcraft 1, which was probably 7 or 8 years ago.

You have misunderstandings of some basic fundamentals about money creation.

You cannot acknowledge that money cannot be magicked up, and must come from somewhere.
You cannot acknowledge opportunity cost, or that anything else can have much greater ROI than the NBN
You cannot acknowledge that alternative investment also creates jobs.
You cannot acknowledge the concept of exports vs imports.
You cannot acknowledge the concept of growth of a business.


You have clearly not ever owned or run a business in the real world, and whilst I understand that theorising is enjoyable for you, it is clear that we have both made decisions about what we think is best for the country, and those opinions differ.

I cannot in any way, ever, convince you that $50 billion (from whatever sources) invested in, for example rail and ports would enable massive increase in exports and hence new money into the country to pay for many services such as health, education and, dare I say it the NBN when the time is right.

An analogy would be small business

Say I own the pharmacy in a medical centre I also own (as one of my friends does)

I could run i3 computers which very very easily run my dispensing programs

Say I can access $20000

I can either update my 6 computers to i7-3970x computers, the computing power which I may need in 15 years time, futureproofing my IT needs somewhat,

or I can add a few extra carpark spaces in the spare lot I own adjaceant to my very busy business....

I'll leave it at that.

MW

Anyhoo, off to the fluoridation thread, much greater logic shown in that thread

 

[NBNMyths]

You have misunderstandings of some basic fundamentals about money creation.

You cannot acknowledge that money cannot be magicked up, and must come from somewhere.
You cannot acknowledge opportunity cost, or that anything else can have much greater ROI than the NBN
You cannot acknowledge that alternative investment also creates jobs.
You cannot acknowledge the concept of exports vs imports.
You cannot acknowledge the concept of growth of a business.

I just told you where it was coming from.
You haven't given an example of an alternative that would generate a better ROI.
I can acknowledge that, but you haven't acknowledged that the NBN will create jobs
The NBN is not really relevant to a discussion of imports vs exports.
There will be many businesses that will grow as a result of infrastructure like the NBN.

You have clearly not ever owned or run a business in the real world, and whilst I understand that theorising is enjoyable for you, it is clear that we have both made decisions about what we think is best for the country, and those opinions differ.

I do own and run a business in the real World, and have done so for the last 10-odd years.

I cannot in any way, ever, convince you that $50 billion (from whatever sources) invested in, for example rail and ports would enable massive increase in exports and hence new money into the country to pay for many services such as health, education and, dare I say it the NBN when the time is right.

Not that I'm against such infrastructure, but unless they were toll roads or the Govt charged for port access sufficiently to recover the investment, then they would become a charge on the budget, unlike the NBN.

Any improvement in port efficiency would also make imports cheaper, so it's a double-edged sword.

I strongly support Australian manufacturing, but more efficient ports and better roads will not overcome our grossly overvalued dollar.

Anyhoo, off to the fluoridation thread, much greater logic shown in that thread

Perhaps from you, but not everyone if its anything like an average fluoride discussion!

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/454925/small_businesses_don_t_see_benefit_nbn_report/

No way!!

Only 30% of small businesses believe they will derive any benefit from the NBN...

And I still hold firm that this is a massive overguestimate.


So to give these 30% of small businesses access to something that might benefit their businesses, lets cripple the mining industry, education and other industry to the tune of $50 billion dollars...

Well done

MW

Possibly these small businesses don't have the resources available to them to really understand how the NBN can benefit them. I've helped a few over the years make significant cost savings with the simple IT knowledge I have. With NBN access I know I could cut their costs even more, especially via software as a service

Yesterday I spent 3.5 hours of my 8.33 hour day fighting with Telstra to get 4 faults fixed due to rotting copper.

So if we can the NBN and the NoBN, is the Government going to legislate that the private sector AKA Telstra has to now spend a few billion on fixing up the copper network they've left to deteriorate so they can prob up the high yielding dividend?

As for crippling the mining industry, I'd say the CEOs of the companies have done pretty well at shooting themselves in the foot. All ego and no economic sense amongst them. Rising CEO salaries and bonuses = market forces = good. Rising mining worker wages = union thuggery = bad. Yet my understanding is market forces use price signals to show when a resource is in high demand, the price goes up and then you either work out how to use the resource more efficiently, or the high price brings in more supply.

 

[Calliope]

Turnbull's plans will send a chill through all those rusted on believers in the efficiency of a Labor-run "business enterprise". Yes Myths, the Conroy version of the NBN Rollout will be scrapped.

Turnbull's immediate focus is the communications ministry and the NBN, his responsibilities from September if Abbott wins. His comments should send a chill through the Labor Party.

Turnbull says the message of the NBN policy he will launch with Abbott is that "we will complete it (NBN) sooner, cheaper and, as a consequence, it will be more affordable.

"We would not have gone about this task of upgrading Australia's broadband by establishing a government-owned telecommunications company," Turnbull says. "That was a profound mistake.

"Having said that, we are where we are. So we will complete the broadband network as cost-effectively as we can. That will mean a change in the technologies used in the urban areas - we won't be running fibre into every premise, the cost and time involved to do that is completely out of proportion to the benefits derived."

Turnbull will impose full disclosure on Labor's NBN model: "The first thing we will do is to publish a clear analysis of how much it will cost in terms of time and dollars to complete the network under the current strategy. I predict people will be very shocked. I believe the truth will be very ugly, but no one should be afraid of the truth."

The second step he intends is another analysis showing how much can be saved by varying the strategy. His game plan is to meet consumer demands at a fraction of the cost and time without taking the fibre into premises.

The Coalition will take whatever step is required to prevent any future government repeating the NBN financial blunder. Turnbull says: "This is the biggest infrastructure project in the nation's history. It is vital to implement Coalition policy to ensure there is no major future project invested in by the commonwealth without a ... rigorous cost-benefit analysis."

(MY bolds)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...-for-team-abbott/story-e6frg74x-1226588738616

 

[medicowallet]

I just told you where it was coming from.
You haven't given an example of an alternative that would generate a better ROI.
I can acknowledge that, but you haven't acknowledged that the NBN will create jobs
The NBN is not really relevant to a discussion of imports vs exports.
There will be many businesses that will grow as a result of infrastructure like the NBN.

I have just given you an example... seriously are you trolling?

I never said that the NBN would not generate jobs, however, I will say that $50 billion spent in an alternative, such as roads, rail etc (which mind you, source a lot of material requirements locally as opposed to importing it) would also generate jobs.

Of course it is not really relevant for imports / exports as it will no doubt result in cash outflow from the country.... AFAIAC there are few enterprises that the government should undertake which should not take this into consideration.... however I do acknowledge that the current Labor government does not cost or think about any of their so called projects, as evidenced by the NBN.

Which businesses will grow as a result of the NBN?

Really, truly, I really am unaware of which ones will benefit, please explain how these businesses will result in improved efficiency for the economy and improved exports in excess of the increased consumption and imports that will result from the NBN (however, as evidenced previously, I doubt you will give a serious answer to this)

And remember, I have no problem with improving speeds, but I just think a timed, measured rollout with thought, realistic deadlines and cost-benefit analysis is the way to go, not some hastily made backhanded comment which was forced into policy by the third worst pm of my lifetime, and continued by the worst pm of my lifetime.

MW

 

[NBNMyths]

Turnbull's plans will send a chill through all those rusted on believers in the efficiency of a Labor-run "business enterprise". Yes Myths, the Conroy version of the NBN Rollout will be scrapped.

(MY bolds)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...-for-team-abbott/story-e6frg74x-1226588738616

There is nothing new there. Turnbull is just repeating the same stuff he's been saying for months. Of course, back in 2007 he described FTTN as a colossal waste of money and unnecessary. Now, he thinks it's the way to go.

He says "people will be shocked" about how long the NBN will take, and what it will cost. I disagree, and only time will tell who ends up being right. Turnbull certainly has no evidence to support his assertion that it will be anything different to what is contained in the most recent corporate plan, otherwise he would have published it. He's just making a political statement.

The other thing I will absolutely stake my reputation on is that, speed for speed, the retail prices for FTTN will not be cheaper than the NBN. Contrary to Turnbull's claim that his solution will be "more affordable for consumers". This simply will not happen. It cannot, because the NBN's low entry-level pricing depends on the subsidy that comes from selling high-end speeds (50Mbps+) to high end users. Without that revenue, even a cheaper build cannot result in lower prices on the lower speeds.


Even if Turnbull goes to the election planning to scale it back to FTTN, it is by no means certain that he can (or will still want to) after the election, for the reasons I have already detailed:

• The unknown cost of buying Telstra's copper network (est $15-20bn);
• The unknown cost of remediating the poor condition of Telstra's copper network;
• The unknown cost of buying Telstra's and/or Optus' HFC networks and converting them into open access;
• The unknown cost of cancelling existing FTTP rollout contracts;
• The unknown cost of cancelling existing migration contracts with Telstra and Optus;
• The unknown results of the CBA (ie: what happens if it recommends FTTP?);
• The likely need to get legislation through an unfriendly Senate;
• The massive recent growth of FTTP networks Worldwide (Alcatel's Copper:FTTP revenue ratio went from 71:29 to 50:50 between 2011 and 2012);
• The fact that a downgrade will means that huge parts of our major cities will be left with vastly inferior broadband to that available in numerous regional areas. (ie: It is politically tenable that Parramatta will have worse broadband than Armidale, Townsville, Darwin and all of Tasmania for example?

 

[So_Cynical]

• The fact that a downgrade will means that huge parts of our major cities will be left with vastly inferior broadband to that available in numerous regional areas. (ie: It is politically tenable that Parramatta will have worse broadband than Armidale, Townsville, Darwin and all of Tasmania for example?

I raised this point maybe 12 months ago.

Politically how does the noalition sell the fact that Townsville will have FTTP/H and Cairns wont...stopping the Townsville rollout will leave some suburbs with and some without... politically it cant be done, cant be sold.

 

[Calliope]

He says "people will be shocked" about how long the NBN will take, and what it will cost. I disagree, and only time will tell who ends up being right. Turnbull certainly has no evidence to support his assertion that it will be anything different to what is contained in the most recent corporate plan, otherwise he would have published it. He's just making a political statement.

So he just making a political statement? And you're not? I would trust his word ahead of that of an anonymous Labor lackey.

The other thing I will absolutely stake my reputation on is that, speed for speed, the retail prices for FTTN will not be cheaper than the NBN.

What reputation do you have? All your stuff is NBNSpin. You may have a high reputation in Labor circles. But outside of that, the only reputation you have to lose is that you picked the wrong side and you will end up with egg on your face.

 

[Knobby22]

Its the country people that gain the most.
I really can't see the Nationals letting the rollout to those areas not happen.

There is a certain logic in the cities to try to work out a better solution. My area, Ascot Vale was built in the 19th century and will be difficult to roll out in. Probably why it is last on the list. The trouble is the older suburbs are usually the richer suburbs and they want FTTP.

I don't think Turnball wanted this job. He had to take it from Abbott who knows it is a poison pill.

 

[IFocus]

Its the country people that gain the most.
I really can't see the Nationals letting the rollout to those areas not happen.

There is a certain logic in the cities to try to work out a better solution. My area, Ascot Vale was built in the 19th century and will be difficult to roll out in. Probably why it is last on the list. The trouble is the older suburbs are usually the richer suburbs and they want FTTP.

I don't think Turnball wanted this job. He had to take it from Abbott who knows it is a poison pill.

I think Turnbul has learnt a lot about politics and is just playing along I doubt very much that he would hold his current line once in government but still think the Coalition would have some hybrid NBN where there would be winners and Labor electorates.

 

[IFocus]

So he just making a political statement? And you're not? I would trust his word ahead of that of an anonymous Labor lackey.

What reputation do you have? All your stuff is NBNSpin. You may have a high reputation in Labor circles. But outside of that, the only reputation you have to lose is that you picked the wrong side and you will end up with egg on your face.

Calm down Calliope debate the issue, read up on Whirlpool if you don't like Myths facts, the Coalitions position is fractured and not very realistic.

 

[Calliope]

Calm down Calliope debate the issue, read up on Whirlpool if you don't like Myths facts, the Coalitions position is fractured and not very realistic.

Calm down IFocus and look before you leap. How can you say something as silly as "Myths facts"?
What Labor supporters call "facts" are usually just spin. But don't worry, Turnbull will begin to dismantle the NBN white elephant come September; so Conroy and Quigley are on borrowed time. However I dare say they can do a lot of damage in six months if they put their minds to it.