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Gillard/Rudd: The End-Game

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Garpal Gumnut said:
As an observer on the self destruction of a venerable party, the ALP, I am fascinated by the present dilemma facing MHR's and Senators in relation as to whether Rudd or Gillard should lead the ALP.

It may be useful to do a headcount to assess who may be a Rudd voter, and who a Gillard.

As we trawl through the litany of misery, we may end up with substantive number, to assist the factions understand, that when it comes to a choice between keeping your seat and ideology, keeping your seat wins out each time.

To start us off can we commence a ledger.

Please add to, and delete, as you wish, but with evidence or reasonable explained conjecture.

So to it.

Gillard : 2 Votes Gillard. Swan.

Rudd : 1 Vote Rudd.

gg
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I have been looking through the Labor caucus and have come up with

Gillard : Gillard. Swan. Wong.

Rudd : Rudd

It does not look all that good for Rudd on these figures, assuming all the others split 50/50

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I have been looking through the Labor caucus and have come up with

Gillard : Gillard. Swan. Wong.

Rudd : Rudd

It does not look all that good for Rudd on these figures, assuming all the others split 50/50

gg
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The key might be Shorten. He will be reluctant to back Rudd and he himself won't want the top prize now as it's currently little more than ashes.

What's needded is a third option. Some fool to temporarily act in the role and salvage as much of the burnt wreckage as possible during what will be Labor's darkest days.

Other : Anyone but Rudd or Gillard or the world's greatest treasurer.
 
drsmith said:
The key might be Shorten. He will be reluctant to back Rudd and he himself won't want the top prize now as it's currently little more than ashes.

What's needded is a third option. Some fool to temporarily act in the role and salvage as much of the burnt wreckage as possible during what will be Labor's darkest days.

Other : Anyone but Rudd or Gillard or the world's greatest treasurer.
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Thanks doc,

So we have

Gillard : Gillard. Swan. Wong. Shorten

Rudd : Rudd

It does not look all that good for Rudd on these figures, assuming all the others split 50/50

gg
 
My tip - about as hot as my stock tips - Greg Combet will be the next leader of the ALP.

The next prime minister of Australia will be Tony Abbott. I give him a 40% chance of following through with real conviction to repeal the carbon tax. If he really does follow through with conviction on that promise it will lead to a double dissolution of parliament within twelve months. In the double dissolution election there a good chance that he still will not win a senate majority and a further period of political turmoil will develop.

2014-15 will be the most chaotic period of federal politics since Whitlam. There will be people in the streets. That's my view.
 
Ok , I'm going out on a limb here.

I reckon the following who hang on to their seats by a smidgen, the first to go in a rout, will back Rudd.

They all need less than a 5% swing to be citizens again, sans Chairman's Lounge, suits, Samson luggage etc.etc.. I'll leave poor ole Swan out of this, he really needs help. So kicking him thus is akin to cruelty.

Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.41
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 50.88
La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP 50.91
Robertson (NSW) Deborah O'Neill ALP 51.00
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 51.12
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.13
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 51.45
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 52.41
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP 52.51
Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP 52.68
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 53.18
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 53.33
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 53.68
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 53.70
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 54.19
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So the voting is now.

Gillard : 2 Votes Gillard. Swan.

Rudd : 15 Votes Rudd. Cheeseman. Rowland. Smyth. O'Neill. Bradbury. Perret. Melham. Symon. D'Ath. Murphy. Gray. Livermore. Snowden. Saffin

It doesn't look too good for Gillard, assuming the rest split 50/50.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Ok , I'm going out on a limb here.

I reckon the following who hang on to their seats by a smidgen, the first to go in a rout, will back Rudd.

They all need less than a 5% swing to be citizens again, sans Chairman's Lounge, suits, Samson luggage etc.etc.. I'll leave poor ole Swan out of this, he really needs help. So kicking him thus is akin to cruelty.
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Those up to 5% have probably already lost all hope.

How many are between 5% and 20% ?
 
tinhat said:
My tip - about as hot as my stock tips - Greg Combet will be the next leader of the ALP.

The next prime minister of Australia will be Tony Abbott. I give him a 40% chance of following through with real conviction to repeal the carbon tax. If he really does follow through with conviction on that promise it will lead to a double dissolution of parliament within twelve months. In the double dissolution election there a good chance that he still will not win a senate majority and a further period of political turmoil will develop.

2014-15 will be the most chaotic period of federal politics since Whitlam. There will be people in the streets. That's my view.
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That could be a close call.IMO
Combet could be a left field call, but I haven't seen him blubbering on t.v.
Whereas most of the other contenders have had a good weep over sod all, so he will probably get the tick.
 
An email from an ALP supporter to Mr Rudd on Wednesday was distributed widely among Labor MPs, reviving memories of the bitter personal campaign against the former prime minister's character last year.
''Mr Rudd, your disloyalty to your leader and party is shameful,'' wrote retired school teacher, Sue Martin, of Avalon Beach, New South Wales.
''It appears that childishly, you feel that if you can't be PM then no other Labor politician should be.''
The 63 year-old said she had always supported Labor, and was tired of Mr Rudd's approach, which she characterised as delighting in ''half smiles and non-committal responses''.


Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/p...s-to-pay-up-20130213-2edhe.html#ixzz2L6xRQksH
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Do any ASF members have the full text of Sue Martin's email to Kevin Rudd, telling him to stop snivelling, which was copied to other ALP Caucus members?

gg
 
It's cryogenic storage now.

KEVIN Rudd has declared he is "not interested" in a return to the Labor leadership, even if the position is made vacant and he is drafted by his colleagues.

Mr Rudd said he was a “creature of public policy” and would continue in political life for the long-term, but that the issue of leadership speculation should be “put in cryogenic storage”.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...ed-in-leadership/story-fn59niix-1226579638601

Perhaps he's finally come to his senses.

Who else will it be ?
 
drsmith said:
It's cryogenic storage now.

Perhaps he's finally come to his senses.

Who else will it be ?
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If he disappeared from the radar screen he would be sadly missed on this Forum, judging by the number of threads with his name in the title in General Chat;

Rudd 58 mentions

Gillard 23 "

Abbott 12 "

So he is the one who draws the thread posters, in the same way as he continues to fascinate the public. No doubt he is fascinating to many in the same sense that somethings we find under rocks are fascinating.

PS Turnbull, 4 mentions
 
Calliope said:
If he disappeared from the radar screen he would be sadly missed on this Forum, judging by the number of threads with his name in the title in General Chat;
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I don't know about sadly, but it would be a loss in terms of entertainment value.

I wonder what's happened.

Is it his health or is Labor perhaps looking elsewhere for the leadership ?
 
drsmith said:
I don't know about sadly, but it would be a loss in terms of entertainment value.

I wonder what's happened.

Is it his health or is Labor perhaps looking elsewhere for the leadership ?
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It is certainly in the interests of the country that Gillard should remain PM until the election. She is the easy-beat. I think Rudd will be pragmatic (for a change) and after the election will accept a plum overseas role from the Coalition. The next Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, has already dangled this carrot.
 
Miss Hale said:
Yes, but it's not dead, buried and cremated is it? Cryogenic storage to me implies it's reasdy and waiting to be revived at any time. This doesn't lead me to think Rudd has given up but rather the opposite, he's just biding his time.
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I suppose it's dead, buried and and not quiet cremated (Team Gillard) and in cryogenic storage (Kevin Rudd).
 
drsmith said:
I suppose it's dead, buried and and not quiet cremated (Team Gillard) and in cryogenic storage (Kevin Rudd).
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Exactly! ;) Rudd might be waiting to take the reins when it all implodes, why take over now when it seems a defeat is inevitable?
 
Miss Hale said:
Exactly! ;) Rudd might be waiting to take the reins when it all implodes, why take over now when it seems a defeat is inevitable?
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I think the best that can be said for his prospects is that he wants the rest of the party on its knees begging him to return as leader, Oliver Twist style.

Please Sir, ......................................

That would fit his ego.
 
drsmith said:
I think the best that can be said for his prospects is that he wants the rest of the party on its knees begging him to return as leader, Oliver Twist style.

Please Sir, ......................................

That would fit his ego.
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He then refuses their request.

The begging of him to return gives him the pleasure of rubbing Gillard's nose in the pooh for what she did to him. He might even be able to get some of the people who bad mouthed him when he challenged last year and who want to curry his favour to also bad mouth Gillard. When Gillard is sufficiently bloodied and humiliated and every one kept in suspense for a few days, he then refuses the request, knowing that it would only be a poisoned chalice. He has the fall back excuse of claiming he said he would not seek the leadership.
 
Agree that that would be his chosen scenario.
Costello did similarly but with a bit more dignity all round.
 
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