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Tony Abbott for PM

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Julia said:
And even if the suggestion were valid, why on earth would respondents answer with anything other than their genuine intentions?
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Because newspolling/etc., does not count in changing a Government. People are aware of this and some answer in a way that they believe will give the current rulers a message. We only need 4 or 5% of respondents to do this to give a very distorted picture.

We have often been privvy to MP's on tellie saying that they take little notice of polls, election day is the one that counts. Howard and Keating are two I remember.

This theory has been reinforced by elections many months later giving a different result than the pre-polling.
When push comes to shove on election day the voter has to make the real decision.
 
explod said:
Because newspolling/etc., does not count in changing a Government. People are aware of this and some answer in a way that they believe will give the current rulers a message. We only need 4 or 5% of respondents to do this to give a very distorted picture.

We have often been privvy to MP's on tellie saying that they take little notice of polls, election day is the one that counts. Howard and Keating are two I remember.

This theory has been reinforced by elections many months later giving a different result than the pre-polling.
When push comes to shove on election day the voter has to make the real decision.
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I haven't been polled for my political leanings, but I have answered phone surveys. Sometimes the questioning can be quite personal and I sometimes give them answers that may not be 100% accurate. Why should I give them my personal feelings or position.

If they rang me and asked what I thought of Gillard, I may well say brilliant, if I thought Rudd had a better chance of taking Labor to an election win.
People have many reasons for giving misleading answers and as explod says, untill the put pen to paper in the polling booth, it is never a done deal.
The ones who carry the day are probably the ones who refuse to participate in the surveys. They probably haven't got strong allegiances and are the swinging voter.
 
dutchie said:
Despite the polls I still think (gut feeling) it will be a landslide for LNP.
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There might be method in the madness of the polls to entice Gillard to go to the polls early and also keep Rudd out of the picture.
It could be an advantage for the Coalition IMO.
 
noco said:
There might be method in the madness of the polls to entice Gillard to go to the polls early and also keep Rudd out of the picture.
It could be an advantage for the Coalition IMO.
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Are you suggesting the polls may be rigged up a bit there noco
 
sptrawler said:
+1 I'm with you on that Dutchie, I think people are over it and just telling the polls what they want to hear.
For most voters, the election can't come soon enough, it has been a tragic period in Australian politics.
Most voters will get rid of Labor rather than go through another term of this type of fiasco.:xyxthumbs
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+1

gg
 
moXJO said:
I think it will be close and labor has a very good chance of getting the win.
Abbott is simply not liked out there and is touted as the face of the libs. They should have pushed Turnbull into a higher position and pranced him in front of the media more often to woo some of the swinging votes. Still plenty of time left yet though.
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Agree Liberals need Turnbul to win the middle ground Abbott cannot do that.

But I think the right will shackle Turnbul for fear of a leadership spill.

Its the right that runs the party at the moment unfortunately and they have a great line up of dimwits seriously.
 
sptrawler said:
I haven't been polled for my political leanings, but I have answered phone surveys.
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We are discussing the major polls, eg Newspoll, not obscure surveys.
There is nothing personal in any of their questions. Have a look on their website. All the questions are published in full.

I'm pretty sure Newspoll also detail how closely matched their polling has been with the eventual federal results.

You haven't answered the question re "what the polling companies want to hear". Why would you imagine they 'want to hear' anything in particular?

Why should I give them my personal feelings or position.
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So why should you obstruct them in their purpose? If you don't want to give them your opinions (should they ever ask you) why wouldn't you just decline to participate?

For those who insist polling is out of step with reality, have a look at this:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/assets/Topic-Papers/2007-Federal-Electionl.pdf
 
IFocus said:
Agree Liberals need Turnbul to win the middle ground Abbott cannot do that.

But I think the right will shackle Turnbul for fear of a leadership spill.

Its the right that runs the party at the moment unfortunately and they have a great line up of dimwits seriously.
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You better put another layer of defences around that political bunker to cope with the disappointment when Labor gets smashed at the next election.
 
IFocus said:
Agree Liberals need Turnbul to win the middle ground Abbott cannot do that.

But I think the right will shackle Turnbul for fear of a leadership spill.

Its the right that runs the party at the moment unfortunately and they have a great line up of dimwits seriously.
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Honestly, IF - when have you ever wanted to help the libs?

If you don't like Abbott and think the libs will suffer if he remains, why do you keep wanting Turnbull to come back?

It seems to me this is a propaganda ploy to try and make lib voters unsettled with Abbott as I think labor would have a much better chance winning the election if Turnbull was leader of the libs.

For starters, Turnbull's polling wasn't great when he had his turn as leader. Secondly, he probably wouldn't highlight the carbon tax lie in election campaigns and labor possibly have more dirt on Turnbull such as the Grech affair.

If you really believe Abbott is so bad for the libs, I would think you would be rubbing your hands together in glee. Instead, it would seem labor would benefit the most from having Turnbull back as lib leader.

Why would you want the libs to gain more middle ground - wouldn't that hurt labor?

Interesting article quoting Godwin Grech: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...t-labor-turnbull/story-fn59niix-1226452334948
 
Malcolm Turnbull is Labor's only hope.

That's why (broadly speaking) the left want him back as Liberal leader.
 
When a poll asks the following question, and that is the question at the next Federal Election.



" Who would you vote for :

An ALP/Green Coalition led by Julia Gillard

or

A Liberal/Nat coalition led by Tony Abbott. "



Then I will believe the result.

That is the question.

gg
 
drsmith said:
Malcolm Turnbull is Labor's only hope.
That's why (broadly speaking) the left want him back as Liberal leader.
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The Coalition just need to hold their nerve, and not gift Labor any free policies, as Noco has said. Labor and their UK spin doc would carve Turnbull up as the "out of touch, eastern suburbs toff, who is on their side on AGW".

- in times of emergency there is always a drift back to the Government of the day
- bushfire emergencies generally hit the Greens vote, most of which seems to have been picked up by Labor
- a subjective observation only, but over the last 12mths a pattern seems to have emerged where Newspoll is out first and strongest for the Govt, but as other pollsters results come in, there is a correction back to the Coalition.
 
Logique said:
- bushfire emergencies generally hit the Greens vote, most of which seems to have been picked up by Labor .
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When Brown left it marked the end of the Greens, they will continue down and only attract fringe votes from no hopers.
 
MrBurns said:
When Brown left it marked the end of the Greens, they will continue down and only attract fringe votes from no hopers.
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You do not know that yet. Wishful thinking MrBurns.

I actually believe that fear for the future due to weather will increase the vote for Greens. Not the way I like to see it happen of course but just how its going to pan out IMHO.
 
explod said:
You do not know that yet. Wishful thinking MrBurns.

I actually believe that fear for the future due to weather will increase the vote for Greens. Not the way I like to see it happen of course but just how its going to pan out IMHO.
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If Milne is the best they can muster as a leader I think you're prediction is in doubt.
 
MrBurns said:
If Milne is the best they can muster as a leader I think you're prediction is in doubt.
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Yes Mr. Burns you are right.

I made a comment in the middle of last year when Brown retired that the Greens had reached their peak and I believe I am spot on. They are now in decline and going down fast.
 
Julia said:
We are discussing the major polls, eg Newspoll, not obscure surveys.
There is nothing personal in any of their questions. Have a look on their website. All the questions are published in full.

I'm pretty sure Newspoll also detail how closely matched their polling has been with the eventual federal results.

You haven't answered the question re "what the polling companies want to hear". Why would you imagine they 'want to hear' anything in particular?


So why should you obstruct them in their purpose? If you don't want to give them your opinions (should they ever ask you) why wouldn't you just decline to participate?

For those who insist polling is out of step with reality, have a look at this:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/assets/Topic-Papers/2007-Federal-Electionl.pdf
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9/10 I do decline, my wife declines 10/10.
When someone asks me what my income is, I either refuse to answer or mislead them, it isn't usually the first question more likely the last.
As for people not giving honest and accurate answers, you will get honest and accurate opinions from strongly opinionated people.
There will be a majority that don't answer the questions and a percentage that answer the questions not accurately.
As long as the sample group is large enough and taken from representative cross section that should give an accurate reflection and is probably done near to an election.
Untill the poll is carried out very near to an election I personally don't place much faith in them.

As for what the polling companies want to hear, if it was a precise science, the polling companies would come up with very similar outcomes.
If they don't that to me shows there are variables, if there are variables these can be indentified and used.
As DrSmith stated in an earlier post Essential Media's polls have been much more stable and have the coalition well ahead.
Maybe 'News' don't want Labor to be rank underdogs, who knows.
 
Logique said:
The Coalition just need to hold their nerve, and not gift Labor any free policies, as Noco has said. Labor and their UK spin doc would carve Turnbull up as the "out of touch, eastern suburbs toff, who is on their side on AGW".

- in times of emergency there is always a drift back to the Government of the day
- bushfire emergencies generally hit the Greens vote, most of which seems to have been picked up by Labor
- a subjective observation only, but over the last 12mths a pattern seems to have emerged where Newspoll is out first and strongest for the Govt, but as other pollsters results come in, there is a correction back to the Coalition.
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+1 the government are just waiting for the coalitions policies to be announced.IMO Then the 'me too' campaign will really get into gear.
 
The massive variations between polls at this current time show someone isn't getting it right. The difference between Morgan/Newspoll and Essential is quite significant and yet I think all claim to have about a 3% margin of error. Makes it difficult to rely on them anymore.

Up until Newspoll and Morgan suddenly became volatile a short time ago, the pollsters were all giving much the same result. It doesn't give confidence when they have become so far apart and so volatile.

It raises more questions than they give answers, imo.
 
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