Tony Abbott for PM

[white_goodman]

Who are those "people"? Where are they hiding - and why?
Do you insinuate that Abbot has been bought? (wouldn't surprise me though )

you dont seem to be aware of how betting markets work

http://centrebet.com/#Sports/2062830

 

[Miss Hale]

Markets were accurate on the US election too as it turned out.

 

[white_goodman]

Markets were accurate on the US election too as it turned out.

yep polls showing 50-50, but obama at $1.30's... I put far more weight on peoples opinion when they put their own money on the line

 

[McLovin]

Markets were accurate on the US election too as it turned out.

But they're not always. And one year+ out they tend to reflect polling.

Here's a good example of Iowa futures for the 2000 US Presidential race. Red (Bush) was the eventual winner. They were calling a comfortable Dem victory even a few months before the election.

 

[McLovin]

yep polls showing 50-50, but obama at $1.30's... I put far more weight on peoples opinion when they put their own money on the line

It was 50:50 in the popular vote but US Presidents aren't elected by popular vote. If you took the time to drill down to electoral college votes, Romney was never going to win.

 

[white_goodman]

It was 50:50 in the popular vote but US Presidents aren't elected by popular vote. If you took the time to drill down to electoral college votes, Romney was never going to win.

wasnt it guaranteed 210 obama 190 romney rest up for grabs?

regardless my point still stands

 

[white_goodman]

But they're not always. And one year+ out they tend to reflect polling.

Here's a good example of Iowa futures for the 2000 US Presidential race. Red (Bush) was the eventual winner. They were calling a comfortable Dem victory even a few months before the election.

View attachment 49648

not acknowledging the various ?'s re Florida and all that stuff.. $1.20 horses dont always win, the price merely reflects the probabilities

 

[McLovin]

wasnt it guaranteed 210 obama 190 romney rest up for grabs?

regardless my point still stands

Depends who you asked. Most of what I saw was Obama over 270 before it even started. The NY Times pollster was saying well before the election that Obama had a >90% chance of winning. The media grabbed hold of the close popular vote in order to turn it into a close race but it wasn't. I predicted that he would lose Virginia, Indiana and Florida (over on the US election thread) as it turned out he only lost Indiana.

not acknowledging the various ?'s re Florida and all that stuff.. $1.20 horses dont always win, the price merely reflects the probabilities

Florida's hanging chads became an issue after, not before the election. Regardless, my point is that markets are often wrong, I'd be looking for a job if they weren't. Back to Australia, I'd expect the 2PP to tighten once an election is called with the actual result being much tighter. The decision will probably come down to better the devil you know, if Abbott is opposition leader.

Anyway, picking elections is a little hobby I like to do on the side.

 

[Julia]

Anyone? Would Milne and the Greens be up to it then? Would Joe Hockey in charge of the Libs be up to it?

It's ludicrous to think that because Labor have been poor, anyone will be better.

Abbott does have to prove he is up to it - and he's not doing it at the moment.

Yes, it's as silly as inferring that, because one detests the Labor government, one is automatically in favour of the Opposition.

I think it's about time the Libs started listening to the electorate instead of just relying on Gillard to lose

Well put. They seem to have become complacent that the electorate will throw Labor out. They haven't reckoned with the public actually wanting to see something positive from the Opposition. Responses to reasonable questions such as those posed by Lisa Wilkinson need to be more constructive than this:

LISA WILKINSON:
Alright. Well, you've already promised that, should you be elected Prime Minister, you will get rid of that carbon tax. That leaves you 79 per cent of those price rises you've got to play with. Can you guarantee that an Abbott government will bring energy prices down beyond taking off the carbon tax?

TONY ABBOTT:
Well, that's a very, very good start. That is a very good start and we would have the ACCC out there making sure that businesses did not profiteer once the carbon tax was off.

LISA WILKINSON:
Ok, but you still haven't answered my question. How much will you bring down energy prices beyond taking off the carbon tax?

TONY ABBOTT:
Well, we will do vastly better than the Labor Party, Lisa, because there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead…

LISA WILKINSON:
You're still not answering my question, Mr Abbott.

TONY ABBOTT:
But, Lisa, I'm saying there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead and when I say that, I'm telling the truth.

LISA WILKINSON:
So should I get from that that you don't actually have a plan on how to bring prices down beyond the carbon tax, beyond getting rid of the carbon tax, Mr Abbott?

TONY ABBOTT:
That's a very, very good start, Lisa.

LISA WILKINSON:
Ok, well, I'll have to take it that you don't have a plan. Unless you're going to put one forward, it doesn't look like you've got a plan, Mr Abbott.

That's just pathetic, Mr Abbott. Just won't cut it any more.

 

[Julia]

Imo there's rather too much 'success' being attributed to Labor's attack on Tony Abbott on the basis of his sexism, i.e. the assumption that because women overall dislike Mr Abbott, it's because they believe he is sexist.

Amongst all the women I know, we all share the same disquiet about Mr Abbott being up to the job of leading the country but it's absolutely not on the basis of him being sexist. Rather, just that he seems less than competent when not in attack mode.

He has been seemingly stunned and paralysed by the attacks on him, unable to come up with a decent response, and looks weak as a result.

Then there's the promise that they will remove the carbon and mining taxes, yet still offer personal tax cuts, while maintaining a surplus. Then the ridiculous maternity scheme which can't be seen as anything other than quite unnecessary middle class welfare to people who do not need it.

They need to start explaining how they are actually going to achieve all this.

 

[Knobby22]

Good point. But he is a lawyer and a Rhodes Scholar.
I am sure he is capable of making a good argument. He really can be a very good communicator. After all, that's why howard liked him.
He rarely seems to want to however. has he become a "hollow man"(i.e. he is lacking conviction and is just parroting rather than thinking about policy).
I also think what you said relates equally to Gillard.

 

[wayneL]

As a general principle, I wouldn't judge the ability to govern by whether one has an immediate answer for every question some ******** journalist has.

Good decisions don't come off the cuff, they are considered and debated.

It seems Aussies want a good interviewee, or a witty smart@rse, rather than a good government.

 

[wayneL]

As a general principle, I wouldn't judge the ability to govern by whether one has an immediate answer for every question some ******** journalist has.

Good decisions don't come off the cuff, they are considered and debated.

It seems Aussies want a good interviewee, or a witty smart@rse, rather than a good government.

Just to add, I don't say this with any inferences to our Tones. I get to see very liitle of him over here, just the full awfulness of Joooools from time to time.

 

[Logique]

As a general principle, I wouldn't judge the ability to govern by whether one has an immediate answer for every question some ******** journalist has.

Good decisions don't come off the cuff, they are considered and debated.

It seems Aussies want a good interviewee, or a witty smart@rse, rather than a good government.

On the mark as ever Wayne. Coalition saving it for the campaign, ignoring the distractions and constant needling. No free policies for Labor, who've run out of ideas, and soon other people's money.

 

[sptrawler]

In response to Lisa Wilkinsons questions regarding electricity prices.
What else could Abbott say other than he will remove the carbon tax which is directly affecting electricity prices.
Maybe someone can come up with how else he can reduce electricity prices which in the main are set by the states.
If he had said anything other than what he did everyone would be jumping up and down that he can't do it.
The question was answered, Lisa just wanted to make it sound as if it wasn't.
The federal government has only control on the carbon price with relation to electricity prices as far as I'm aware.
Again it is just trumped up B.S by Lisa to try and make Abbott fabricate something, which she would then have hung him with.

To me Wilkinson looked like the idiot, he answered her quetion honestly and it is a plan.
For her to finish with the statement she did shows she either didn't get the response she wanted, she is deaf or just ignorant. IMO
It is a federation and the states are responsible, at this point for power generation.

 

[Ferret]

Coalition saving it for the campaign, ignoring the distractions and constant needling. No free policies for Labor, who've run out of ideas, and soon other people's money.

The coalition have have provided nothing but negative tactics for 2 years. People are sick of it now and it's time to evolve the tactics.

If they leave it too long to put forward some plans, they will end up starting the election campaign from behind in the polls.

 

[Ferret]

In response to Lisa Wilkinsons questions regarding electricity prices.
What else could Abbott say other than he will remove the carbon tax which is directly affecting electricity prices.
Maybe someone can come up with how else he can reduce electricity prices which in the main are set by the states.
If he had said anything other than what he did everyone would be jumping up and down that he can't do it.
The question was answered, Lisa just wanted to make it sound as if it wasn't.
The federal government has only control on the carbon price with relation to electricity prices as far as I'm aware.
Again it is just trumped up B.S by Lisa to try and make Abbott fabricate something, which she would then have hung him with.

To me Wilkinson looked like the idiot, he answered her quetion honestly and it is a plan.
For her to finish with the statement she did shows she either didn't get the response she wanted, she is deaf or just ignorant. IMO
It is a federation and the states are responsible, at this point for power generation.

SPT, you just answered her question perfectly. Why wasn't Abbott able to do the same?

 

[drsmith]

The following statement does not read well.

LIBERALS have urged Tony Abbott to have a rest over summer and delegate more to his shadow ministers to prevent a further slide in his voter support.

It suggest that Tony Abbott is either exercising too much personal control, or he doesn't have much confidence in his front bench colleagues overall.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...ersonal-approval/story-fn59niix-1226515926444

 

[sptrawler]

Good observation Doc, the libs do need to sit back and do some tactical thinking.
Might be a good time to bury the hatchet and do a portfolio swap Hockey swap with Turnbull.

 

[Julia]

Good point. But he is a lawyer and a Rhodes Scholar.
I am sure he is capable of making a good argument. He really can be a very good communicator. After all, that's why howard liked him.

Is it? How do we know this? I have never seen him as a good communicator. He has never come even close to John Howard's calm, self possessed determination. He ums and ahs and always seems to be trying to think of what to say.

I also think what you said relates equally to Gillard.

Really? How? I don't see Gillard wanting to abolish the carbon or mining tax or increase the pretty appropriate maternity leave scheme the government has put in place.

Just to add, I don't say this with any inferences to our Tones. I get to see very liitle of him over here, just the full awfulness of Joooools from time to time.

And you are probably spared the awfulness of Mr Abbott's difficulty in convincingly answering questions.

The coalition have have provided nothing but negative tactics for 2 years. People are sick of it now and it's time to evolve the tactics.

If they leave it too long to put forward some plans, they will end up starting the election campaign from behind in the polls.

Zackly. I so detest the Labor government that - unless something changes radically - I will be voting for the Coalition. But this will be absolutely without any conviction that the country will be measurably better off under an Abbott led government.