Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Tony Abbott for PM

Jump to new
Isn't Newspoll the one that generally seems to favour Labor? It will be interesting to see what some of the other polls say in due course.

I'm a big Abbott fan because I believe he's a genuinely decent bloke and would make a good PM but he does lack some political slickness that's for sure. I also like Christopher Pyne a lot but I'm not sure he's popular across the board. I think he has a touch of the Alexander Downers about him (silver spoon sort of impression) that might not go down well with the electorate. I think Turnball is a good political performer and is definitely liberal/conservative in an economic sense but on social policies he's a bit too far to the left for my liking.
 
Miss Hale said:
Isn't Newspoll the one that generally seems to favour Labor? It will be interesting to see what some of the other polls say in due course.

I'm a big Abbott fan because I believe he's a genuinely decent bloke and would make a good PM but he does lack some political slickness that's for sure. I also like Christopher Pyne a lot but I'm not sure he's popular across the board. I think he has a touch of the Alexander Downers about him (silver spoon sort of impression) that might not go down well with the electorate. I think Turnball is a good political performer and is definitely liberal/conservative in an economic sense but on social policies he's a bit too far to the left for my liking.
Click to expand...

Turnbull does not appear to be a team member. He should be in the Labor Party but they did not want him as he was more use to the Labor Party being in the coalition.
 
noco said:
Turnbull does not appear to be a team member. He should be in the Labor Party but they did not want him as he was more use to the Labor Party being in the coalition.
Click to expand...

I keep hearing this meme but it doesn't make sense to me.

Are you implying that Turnbull is some sort of puppet of the ALP designed to destabilise the Libs in order to ensure a victory for the ALP?
 
noco said:
YES!!
Click to expand...

I think you've completely misjudged him if you think he's happy being someone's puppet. You don't become a partner a Goldman Sachs by being a lacky. Abbott is unpopular, he's got a 30% satisfaction rating, and I'll take a stab in the dark those in the satisfied camp aren't swinging voters. FFS, even Gillard, with her equally low satisfaction rating, is preferred over Abbott as PM by 11 points. Politics is a cut throat game, someone always wants your job. It's not a team sport.
 
McLovin said:
I think you've completely misjudged him if you think he's happy being someone's puppet. You don't become a partner a Goldman Sachs by being a lacky. Abbott is unpopular, he's got a 30% satisfaction rating, and I'll take a stab in the dark those in the satisfied camp aren't swinging voters. FFS, even Gillard, with her equally low satisfaction rating, is preferred over Abbott as PM by 11 points. Politics is a cut throat game, someone always wants your job. It's not a team sport.
Click to expand...


And Turnbull had a 14% rating when he was booted out. Abbott is way in front.

The polls when people are not leaders really don't tell us much. We need to compare how Turnbull polled when he was leader and how he was judged at the time. That is now his resume - his actual performance history.

And Turnbull never seems happy with the libs. Often complaining about them. I don't know why he doesn't change sides, but perhaps labor don't want him either.
 
Miss Hale said:
Isn't Newspoll the one that generally seems to favour Labor? It will be interesting to see what some of the other polls say in due course.
Click to expand...
In what way do you think any poll would 'favour' either party? If they ask respondents who are randomly selected by a computer program plain multiple choice questions e.g. "if an election were held tomorrow which party would receive your first choice". All the research companies publish their questions and I've never seen one which is in any way a leading question.

And if anything untoward were going on, I doubt it would be with Newspoll favouring Labor. Newspoll results are usually published only in "The Australian" which is not going to go out of its way to be biased toward Labor.
 
sails said:
And Turnbull had a 14% rating when he was booted out. Abbott is way in front.

The polls when people are not leaders really don't tell us much. We need to compare how Turnbull polled when he was leader and how he was judged at the time. That is now his resume - his actual performance history.
Click to expand...

Ok let's do that...

Turnbull had a higher performance rating when he was booted than Abbott does now (36% v 30%). Turnbull was in opposition to the most popular PM in Australian history, who had a performance rating that had been in the high 50's low 60's. Almost impossible to win a popularity contest under those circumstances plus everyone was still in Kevin 07 Honeymoon mode. Contrast to today: Gillard has a performance rating that has recently ranged between the high 20's to low 30's. Despite that Abbott is still well off being preferred PM and has a lower performance rating than Turnbull did when he was booted.
 
Julia said:
In what way do you think any poll would 'favour' either party? If they ask respondents who are randomly selected by a computer program plain multiple choice questions e.g. "if an election were held tomorrow which party would receive your first choice". All the research companies publish their questions and I've never seen one which is in any way a leading question.

And if anything untoward were going on, I doubt it would be with Newspoll favouring Labor. Newspoll results are usually published only in "The Australian" which is not going to go out of its way to be biased toward Labor.
Click to expand...

I mean 'favour' in the sense theat they are more flattering to Labor or more likely to show better figures for Labor than, for example, Essential Media. I don't know why, I'm just going on past results. Maybe it's the way they select their sample. I'm not suggesting they are tampering with the results after they have done their polling.
 
McLovin said:
Ok let's do that...

Turnbull had a higher performance rating when he was booted than Abbott does now (36% v 30%). Turnbull was in opposition to the most popular PM in Australian history, who had a performance rating that had been in the high 50's low 60's. Almost impossible to win a popularity contest under those circumstances plus everyone was still in Kevin 07 Honeymoon mode. Contrast to today: Gillard has a performance rating that has recently ranged between the high 20's to low 30's. Despite that Abbott is still well off being preferred PM and has a lower performance rating than Turnbull did when he was booted.
Click to expand...



Turnbull was at 14% as preferred PM - has Abbott ever been that low? I don't recall it ever being so low.

http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_up...on & Leaders Ratings + CPRS + Best Leader.pdf
 
sails said:
Turnbull was at 14% as preferred PM - has Abbott ever been that low? I don't recall it ever being so low.

http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_up...on & Leaders Ratings + CPRS + Best Leader.pdf
Click to expand...

Rudd was at 65%. It had never been that high. The old mandarin who spoke Mandarin couldn't put a foot wrong.

You can't actually be trying to claim that the preferred PM number is because Abbott is running such a smooth operation that people are coming back to the Libs? The choice at the moment is horsesh!t or cowsh!t.

You asked for performance, so I gave you performance. Turnbull was, according to the electorate, performing better when he was booted than Abbott is. Pretty simple.
 
McLovin said:
Ok let's do that...

Turnbull had a higher performance rating when he was booted than Abbott does now (36% v 30%). Turnbull was in opposition to the most popular PM in Australian history, who had a performance rating that had been in the high 50's low 60's. Almost impossible to win a popularity contest under those circumstances plus everyone was still in Kevin 07 Honeymoon mode. Contrast to today: Gillard has a performance rating that has recently ranged between the high 20's to low 30's. Despite that Abbott is still well off being preferred PM and has a lower performance rating than Turnbull did when he was booted.
Click to expand...

Nice summery, Abbott has only polled well while Labor committed political incompetency, as soon as there is any sort of clean air for the government the focus moves to Abbott and he struggles to string more than two words together thats not scripted before hand.

Abbott has well and truly over blown most issues I think the middle ground has stop listening to him and surprisingly moved back to Labor. But I don't see that as firm support the election is still Abbotts to lose.

Abbott has always been Labors hope of recovery, it would be a poll disaster for Labor if Turnbull became Coalition leader IMHO 8 to 6 months out from an election.


Insiders showed the number for winning opposition leaders Abbotts out of the ball park
 
There is no doubt that Abbott has to go. The next election may not end up being the walk in the park that everyone expected. The negative campaigning is fast losing its effectiveness and the Libs are going to have to have a good set of policies to take to the next election.

This is where Abbott becomes an even greater liability to the party. A few examples:-

i. He has promised in blood or some such other silly phrase that he will remove the carbon tax. It hasn't worked out as badly as voters feared and many will prefer to see it left alone rather than replaced with Abbott's "direct action plan", the consequences of which are unknown.

ii. He has made the ridiculous 6 month paid maternity leave plan one of his "core promises".

iii. He is promising to curtail the NBN, a long term investment in infrastructure that the majority of voters support.

Abbott is so tied to these stupid policies that the only way to change them is going to be to remove him.

I think the Libs would be foolish to act too early though. They would do best to bring in a new leader just a few months before the election so that he can go to the polls during his honeymoon period. They could release a sensible set of policies at the same time and they would romp away with the election.

If I was in the Liberal party hierarchy, I would be having secret talks with Peter Costello right now. I'd arrange a safe seat for him at the election and around the middle of next year I'd drop him in as a party leader outside of parliament. It worked well with Campbell Newman, why not again?
 
Miss Hale said:
I mean 'favour' in the sense theat they are more flattering to Labor or more likely to show better figures for Labor than, for example, Essential Media. I don't know why, I'm just going on past results. Maybe it's the way they select their sample. I'm not suggesting they are tampering with the results after they have done their polling.
Click to expand...
Are you sure that all of the other polls don't just flatter the Liberals!

Ah, see what I did there!
 
Ves said:
Are you sure that all of the other polls don't just flatter the Liberals!

Ah, see what I did there!
Click to expand...


And what about the real polls? The recent NT and ACT elections?
It looks like those pre-polls were flattering labor...lol
 
Ves said:
Are you sure that all of the other polls don't just flatter the Liberals!

Ah, see what I did there!
Click to expand...

Yes they do, that's exactly what I mean! Some polls are more favourable to one party than another. We won't really know which ones are correct until the election.
 
Miss Hale said:
Yes they do, that's exactly what I mean! Some polls are more favourable to one party than another. We won't really know which ones are correct until the election.
Click to expand...
Indeed - after all, these polling companies are getting paid big money to produce results!
 
IFocus said:
Nice summery, Abbott has only polled well while Labor committed political incompetency,.........
Click to expand...
The skeletons in Labor's closet haven't magically gone away.

Infact, their rattling more than ever.

IFocus said:
Abbott has always been Labors hope of recovery, it would be a poll disaster for Labor if Turnbull became Coalition leader IMHO 8 to 6 months out from an election.
Click to expand...
Malcolm Turnbull is a political featherweight as demonstrated by his previous stint as leader.

Politically, Labor would wipe the floor with him.
 
Top