VAH - Virgin Australia Holdings

[System]

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VAH) was formerly known as Virgin Blue Holdings Limited (VBA).

Previous discussion of this company can be found in the VBA thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266

 

[frankie_boy]

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (VAH) was formerly known as Virgin Blue Holdings Limited (VBA).

Previous discussion of this company can be found in the VBA thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266

Hello VAH...

what will you have in stall for us in the next 12 months..

I see bumpy times ahead..

 

[frankie_boy]

Nice gains for a while till recent news of pax ratios. Business class is picking up. Steady as she goes..

 

[notting]

Nice looking pair :blover:

 

[CanOz]

Pretty impressive considering the broader market....this is the weekly.

CanOz

 

[skc]

Nice looking pair :blover:

View attachment 47137

I have this pair open yesterday and today.

Long QAN @ $1.49. Short VAH @ 43c.

~10% divergence but will aim to take 6-7%.

On the charts I can see VAH testing 38c again, with QAN hopefully holding around current levels for a week or so.

 

[McLovin]

10.5x EV for a company that derives 50% of it's revenue from mining services...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.

Only because QAN are such losers.

I hesitate as one loose bolt can wipe much value from airline shares.

Any thoughts?

A chart.

gg

 

[tasmanian]

I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.

Only because QAN are such losers.

I hesitate as one loose bolt can wipe much value from airline shares.

Any thoughts?

A chart.

gg

I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.

And your reasons mate?

gg

 

[systematic]

I think theres alot better stocks to be buying than this atm.

It wouldn't be my pick of the bunch either, but:

- I have it not too bad on value.

- Taking a breather momentum wise (but still positive) and needs to get on with it. The good thing here is that it wouldn't take much to throw it out, which gives you a "lower risk" trade.

 

[tasmanian]

And your reasons mate?

gg

Hi mate,

I think virgin could rise but still quite abit of overhead resistance. Not the worst looking chart ive seen a slow mover most likely.

Take a look at a few of these stocks dye, rms, akm, whc, nuf, mbn, aqp, aqa I just think they have more potential than virgin atm.

Not sure if your trading or going for a long term investment? Looks like long term virgin might be good especially if it breaks above 52c.

A buy now with a tight stop at 41c could work and a target of 50/51c ?

I dont know anything about the fundamentals you maybe know more about that.

Sorry im rambling but just think there is better buys around atm thats all. I think med to long term u could do well but just better stocks around for me.

best of luck

 

[willstor]

I am looking at an entry in to VAH shortly.

Only because QAN are such losers.

I hesitate as one loose bolt can wipe much value from airline shares.

Any thoughts?

A chart.

gg

This one has flown into my airspace recently, if you'll allow the poor joke.
Got my HVN and NCM funds however bar this stock I can't see much value in any equities right now as they're so overweight.
Whilst it won't pay a dividend I'm interested in a small tranche close to 40c, with the hope that we see a rise to the late 40's before hopefully getting approval on the Tiger deal results in a nice bounce. The company appears to be well run, have a decent team on board and is part of a huge conglomerate who will throw the money at it to bring success.
Of course this week the market might lose 2% and I can pick up a cheap dividend paying stock.

 

[ecnalb]

I am thinking about getting in on this one as a long term investment. Couple of thousand should do it?

I think the plans John Borghetti has laid out will eventually start to reap some rewards, especially the tie up with Tiger Airways.

 

[prawn_86]

I am thinking about getting in on this one as a long term investment. Couple of thousand should do it?

Over the long term virtually every airline in the World loses money and/or goes broke.

They are an extremely capital intensive business, with high hard to control fixed costs (fuel, maintenance) and constant cost pressures. Why do you thinkVAH would be any different than all the others globally?

Personally i would never ever buy an airline for the long term.

 

[McLovin]

Over the long term virtually every airline in the World loses money and/or goes broke.

They are an extremely capital intensive business, with high hard to control fixed costs (fuel, maintenance) and constant cost pressures. Why do you thinkVAH would be any different than all the others globally?

Personally i would never ever buy an airline for the long term.

Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.

They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.

 

[JTLP]

Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.

They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.

Prawn / McLoving

Don't quote me on this but I remember seeing that Ryanair was one of the world's most profitable airlines (consistently???). Not saying it can maintain over the long haul - but been around for a while and seems to do ok with their ridiculous fares and crazy costs?!?!

 

[McLovin]

Prawn / McLoving

Don't quote me on this but I remember seeing that Ryanair was one of the world's most profitable airlines (consistently???). Not saying it can maintain over the long haul - but been around for a while and seems to do ok with their ridiculous fares and crazy costs?!?!

Ryanair is a funny one. A lot of the routes they fly are to out of the way places that happen to be near big cities. Near is a relative term in Ryan Air talk. Consider that when you fly to "Frankfurt" with Ryan Air you actually land at an airport 120km away with no rail and poor road connections. Why is that important? Because Ryan Air receives big cash incentives to fly to these out of the way airports by the local government. Infact the cash handouts are about the exact same amount as RA's profit. They do similar sort of things with smaller out of the way cities with airports. Local tourist boards etc can pay RA a fee to start flying there and bringing tourists in.

 

[ecnalb]

Absolutely. In the last 10 years every major airline, with the exception of Southwest, in the US has been into Chapter 11 protection at some stage. VAH's golden years were the period between Ansett going broke and the arrival of Jetstar. Domesticaly, they do OK, especially on the main trunk routes (the East Coast capitals triangle) where volume is fairly predictable as is pricing. I actually have somewhere a p/l breakdown of a flight Sydney-Melbourne, I did it a couple of years ago but if my estimates were correct it's actually quite profitable assuming you get bums on seats.

They want to expand internationally but then it gets really competitive, fitting out planes with new entertainment systems and seats costs big money and it can be really hard to earn it back especially when the Asian carriers can operate with government subsidies and vastly decreased labour costs.

Most of VA's international sectors are flown by the likes of SQ, EY and so on, so using their low cost base.

I think QF will be an interesting one come 2016. With forecasts of international to return to profit after the Asia/Middle East reroute and hopefully *fingers crossed* the 787 on the premises.

 

[prawn_86]

Most of VA's international sectors are flown by the likes of SQ, EY and so on.

I think QF will be an interesting one come 2016. With forecasts of international to return to profit after the Asia/Middle East reroute and hopefully *fingers crossed* the 787 on the premises.

Look at the ROE and avg shareholder return of VAH and QAN. It is absolutely terrible and no indication that will turn around anytime soon. It has been bad for 10 years and will be bad for the next 10 years