NBN Rollout Scrapped

[Gringotts Bank]

This taken from Yahoo news, which is usually full of BS. However, I wonder what you guys think of this. Will wireless technology eclipse what the NBN fibre optics can provide in years to come?

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A new wave of 4G wireless broadband networks will eclipse the speed of some fibre plans before the National Broadband Network even rolls through Perth streets.

Testing of Telstra's 4G long-term evolution network in Perth, which is limited to areas close to the CBD, clocked average download speeds exceeding most ADSL2+ connections - and treble the speed of the cheapest NBN plan in one location.

As Telstra plans to expand the network's reach beyond the central area, Optus is busily rolling out its competing network in Perth, which is scheduled to launch within two months.

The West Australian tested Telstra's 4G network using a USB modem plugged into a laptop.

Riding on the CAT bus through West Perth, the central city and East Perth, we clocked average download speeds of about 18Mbps. Upload speeds were a bit slower in most places, except West Perth where they averaged 21.14Mbps - double the "typical" maximum speed of 10Mbps Telstra has quoted in marketing material.

Next we took the modem to Victoria Park, where it achieved similar speeds to the CBD. The network extended up Albany Highway to the edges of East Victoria Park before dropping off to a 3G network.

Victoria Park will be one of the first suburbs to be connected to the NBN, which offers plans with speeds starting from 12Mbps and up to 100Mbps.

The northern end of Curtin University edged into the 4G coverage area, with a 7.91Mbps download speed, and the University of WA was well within limits, clocking 15.12Mbps.

Parked outside the Subiaco post office on Rokeby Road, speeds reached the highest for the day, with an average of 29.24Mbps. The single highest result was an eye-opening 36.36Mbps, likely because of the Telstra infrastructure spotted on top of the Australia Post building.
Given the network has only been in place since late last year and most Telstra customers do not have the technology to access it yet, it is possible The West was also the only user connecting to 4G in the area at that time. As more users sign up, congestion is likely to affect speeds.

 

[boofhead]

I wonder if it has been reported like that for political purposes or some kind of anti NBN fibre bias. Different technologies have different overlaps. NBN fibre plans go up to 100 megabit/s at the moment. I don't see how it matters that Telstra has a wireless network capable of being faster than the slowest fibre plans. How well will 4G handle peak periods with many customers? Telstra's 3G network has some issues in some regions now.

For a while I expect wireless to lag behind fibre for speeds. NBN have states they will over up to 1 gigabit/s in the future. The fibre itself is faster of much faster speeds. You can get some idea about upgradability by drawing parallels to how major fibre backbones are upgraded by changing the termination equipment.

BTW, Telstra 4G will be a different wireless network design to what NBN plans. Latency, distance etc. will be different.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I wonder if it has been reported like that for political purposes or some kind of anti NBN fibre bias. Different technologies have different overlaps. NBN fibre plans go up to 100 megabit/s at the moment. I don't see how it matters that Telstra has a wireless network capable of being faster than the slowest fibre plans. How well will 4G handle peak periods with many customers? Telstra's 3G network has some issues in some regions now.

For a while I expect wireless to lag behind fibre for speeds. NBN have states they will over up to 1 gigabit/s in the future. The fibre itself is faster of much faster speeds. You can get some idea about upgradability by drawing parallels to how major fibre backbones are upgraded by changing the termination equipment.

BTW, Telstra 4G will be a different wireless network design to what NBN plans. Latency, distance etc. will be different.

Boof, wouldn't it make more sense to develop 4G, or 5G or 6G so that it can handle high loads and give wide Aus-wide coverage? The extreme cost of NBN gives it a huge risk profile IMO, especially prone to new developments elsewhere.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Boof, wouldn't it make more sense to develop 4G, or 5G or 6G so that it can handle high loads and give wide Aus-wide coverage? The extreme cost of NBN gives it a huge risk profile IMO, especially prone to new developments elsewhere.

This is an overwhelming argument against the NBN, and for scrapping it, before it sends the country bust.

The risks outweigh any benefit, given technological developments and innovation in G.

gg

 

[DB008]

I raised this new technology a while back, NBNMyths had a response.

 

[boofhead]

Boof, wouldn't it make more sense to develop 4G, or 5G or 6G so that it can handle high loads and give wide Aus-wide coverage? The extreme cost of NBN gives it a huge risk profile IMO, especially prone to new developments elsewhere.

Telcos that understand how mobile phone networks will talk about limitations to a mobile wireless approach. Even Telstra has fell in to the complimentary line. Some ISPs in Australia have some experience with fixed position wireless too. Adding directionality (fixed wireless) allows greater distances. So far the wireless solutions have not bettered fibre solutions. Wireless solutions often need fibre themselves. Do you have details of 5G or 6G? Have you looked in to how many people can use a 4G tower at full speeds at the same time?

 

[DB008]

I raised this new technology a while back, NBNMyths had a response.

This quick video should help in explaining how the NBN will get upgraded in the future.

http://bcove.me/1cvx9mvb
To expand, just click on the button next to the volume (left of it)

 

[IFocus]

This taken from Yahoo news, which is usually full of BS. However, I wonder what you guys think of this. Will wireless technology eclipse what the NBN fibre optics can provide in years to come?

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Not unless you change the law of physics or there is some sort of major advancement thats not currently known.

Basic problem with wireless is more users less bandwidth pick any G you want same problem.

 

[nulla nulla]

Not unless you change the law of physics or there is some sort of major advancement thats not currently known.

Basic problem with wireless is more users less bandwidth pick any G you want same problem.

Plus security issues, plus dropouts, plus black holes, plus etc etc etc. Landlines/optic fibre will always be faster and more reliable.

Only disadvantage of landlines is lack of mobility.

 

[dutchie]

Landlines/optic fibre will always be faster and more reliable.

They use to say that radio would always be the best way of entertaining and communicating to, the masses. (never say always)

Only disadvantage of landlines is lack of mobility.

Thats the crux - now and in the future - thats what people want (despite the current drawbacks) - mobility.

 

[IFocus]

Plus security issues, plus dropouts, plus black holes, plus etc etc etc. Landlines/optic fibre will always be faster and more reliable.

Only disadvantage of landlines is lack of mobility.

The issue in mobility is the increase in devices using it chewing up existing bandwidth and beyond now (I phone 10 anyone)even before you get to using wireless for higher rates of internet content used by PC's.

Been around this bush so many times

 

[joea]

http://www.afr.com/p/national/new_homes_dudded_over_nbn_says_turnbull_FK9xgOkNSYVqkJ8iLDcEJN

Just an update.
joea

 

[NBNMyths]

http://www.afr.com/p/national/new_homes_dudded_over_nbn_says_turnbull_FK9xgOkNSYVqkJ8iLDcEJN

Just an update.
joea

1. As part of the transition to the NBN, Telstra retained the USO to connect all developments approved prior to 1/1/11. The vast, vast majority of the 35000 connections they performed in 2011 were related to those developments.

2. The contract for NBN Co to install fibre to new premises wasn’t even signed until May 2011.

3. NBN Co/Telstra are the providers of LAST resort for new estates. All developers can choose whoever they like to wire their new estates, and they can choose copper or fibre (although pit/pipe must be fibre-ready, and fibre must be installed in estates over 100 lots).

4. There are not “110000 premises on the NBN waiting list”. NBN Co has received notification of development of estates totalling 110,000 premises. Most of them aren’t built yet. There is no-one living there. They will be connected when the houses are complete and people move in.

5. Finally, it is the absolute height of hypocrisy that Turnbull complains about a paltry 35,000 premises temporarily having copper connections, when your policy is for about 10,000,000 Australian premises to use this obsolete infrastructure forever. Pathetic.

 

[NBNMyths]

This taken from Yahoo news, which is usually full of BS. However, I wonder what you guys think of this. Will wireless technology eclipse what the NBN fibre optics can provide in years to come?

Boof, wouldn't it make more sense to develop 4G, or 5G or 6G so that it can handle high loads and give wide Aus-wide coverage? The extreme cost of NBN gives it a huge risk profile IMO, especially prone to new developments elsewhere.

Sorry for the delay in replying to this. For some reason every time I tried to post I got a dropped connection error. back now....



The problem with wireless isn't so much about technology as physics. Wireless uses air as a medium. Air is lossy. Wireless uses the radio spectrum, and the radio spectrum is narrow and finite. Each time you increase speeds or add users, the network requires more radio spectrum. Apart from the small total available, that spectrum is shared by other technologies (commercial radio, TV, CB radios, military, satellites, garage door openers etc etc).

The NBN uses optical fibre as a medium transmitting pulses of light. OF is not lossy, and the light spectrum is wider than the radio spectrum. Because it's contained within the OF, it's also not shared for any other use.

A single strand of OF can carry more data that the entire radio spectrum combined, let alone the small portion available for wireless broadband.

So it doesn't matter how many Gs you have, unless we rewrite the laws of physics relating to spectrum (and overcome numerous other physical barriers), no wireless/air technology can ever approach the capacity of light/fibre technology.

There isn't a single country or telco anywhere in the World proposing to replace their urban fixed networks with wireless ones.

Conversely, there are 60 countries currently rolling out assorted levels of Fibre To The Premises networks. The US, NZ, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan (and many others in Asia), The UK, Germany, Iceland, Switzerland (and many others in Europe), Israel, Qatar..... the list goes on.

 

[joea]

1. As part of the transition to the NBN, Telstra retained the USO to connect all developments approved prior to 1/1/11. The vast, vast majority of the 35000 connections they performed in 2011 were related to those developments.

2. The contract for NBN Co to install fibre to new premises wasn’t even signed until May 2011.

3. NBN Co/Telstra are the providers of LAST resort for new estates. All developers can choose whoever they like to wire their new estates, and they can choose copper or fibre (although pit/pipe must be fibre-ready, and fibre must be installed in estates over 100 lots).

4. There are not “110000 premises on the NBN waiting list”. NBN Co has received notification of development of estates totalling 110,000 premises. Most of them aren’t built yet. There is no-one living there. They will be connected when the houses are complete and people move in.

5. Finally, it is the absolute height of hypocrisy that Turnbull complains about a paltry 35,000 premises temporarily having copper connections, when your policy is for about 10,000,000 Australian premises to use this obsolete infrastructure forever. Pathetic.

Gee you are quick.! Obviously you have the alert system activated.
joea

 

[NBNMyths]

Some interesting info coming out of Senate Estimates last night. NBN Co have revealed the percentages of customers on each speed tier of the fibre network:

12/1: 18%
25/5 or 25/10: 35%
50/20: 10%
100/40: 37%

These numbers are far in excess of the forecast in the NBN Business case. eg The takeup of 100/40 was forecast to be 8% of connections, and 12/1 was forecast to be 52%. While it was expected that "early adopters" would lift high speeds initially, it was also revealed that the percentage taking the top speed is actually increasing as time goes on, with 50% of April connections choosing 100/40.

Overall, the percentages mean that 82% of NBN customers so far have chosen speeds in excess of the speeds provided by the Coalition alternative policy (which is officially 12Mbps to 97%).

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Some interesting info coming out of Senate Estimates last night. NBN Co have revealed the percentages of customers on each speed tier of the fibre network:
.[/b]

No amount of spin will detract from the fact that this is a pink batts writ large.

A monumental waste of money.

If you quoted the Estimates proceedings correctly you would be aware that it is an unmitigated waste, not being taken up, and not passing those who would take it up.

In other words a waste.

gg

 

[bellenuit]

Some interesting info coming out of Senate Estimates last night. NBN Co have revealed the percentages of customers on each speed tier of the fibre network:

12/1: 18%
25/5 or 25/10: 35%
50/20: 10%
100/40: 37%

These numbers are far in excess of the forecast in the NBN Business case. eg The takeup of 100/40 was forecast to be 8% of connections, and 12/1 was forecast to be 52%. While it was expected that "early adopters" would lift high speeds initially, it was also revealed that the percentage taking the top speed is actually increasing as time goes on, with 50% of April connections choosing 100/40.

Overall, the percentages mean that 82% of NBN customers so far have chosen speeds in excess of the speeds provided by the Coalition alternative policy (which is officially 12Mbps to 97%).

I think working on percentages alone compared to estimates is quite dangerous without looking at actual installs compared to estimates.

It is apparent that the number of installs to date compared to what was originally estimated is way under forecast (the delay in coming to an agreement with Telstra being the official excuse), but I also believe that the number of installs is also behind more recent forecasts (I read this recently but can't recall the source).

The fact that there is a greater take up of the higher speeds than forecast, but a lesser number of overall installs than forecast is possible proof of what many believed to begin with; that those who want higher speeds would be willing to pay for it, so selective rather than global rollout is more cost effective. While putting a fast high capacity backbone in place is essential, extending it to every home is just a waste. It is apparent that many are happy with their currents speeds at their current price point so are not willing to change to the more expensive NBN option. However, those that have the need for speed are willing to pay the extra.

I get about 20Mbps on a 100GB plan from Telstra for just $15 (specially negotiated). I do not want the NBN to be imposed on me where I will probably end up paying $80+ for the same or slightly better.

 

[NBNMyths]

No amount of spin will detract from the fact that this is a pink batts writ large.

A monumental waste of money.

If you quoted the Estimates proceedings correctly you would be aware that it is an unmitigated waste, not being taken up, and not passing those who would take it up.

In other words a waste.

gg

Seems gg that your reporting of Estimates is about as accurate as your initial post in this thread.

The NBN is being taken up at a higher rate than predicted. The Kiama site has now hit an incredible 34% after 6 months of availability. No similar project anywhere in the World has such a huge takeup in such a short time. The Verizon FiOS network in the USA only has about 30% takeup now, and it's been running for 4 years!

Not only that, but the majority of people on the NBN are taking up the higher speed plans, making NBN Co's Average revenue Per User (ARPU) far, far higher than they predicted. As Mr Quigley said in Estimates, if this trend continues then NBN Co will have to lower their prices to comply with their SAU condition that they not make a profit exceeding 3.5% above the bond rate.

Yes, the rollout is certainly delayed. The 10 month delay in getting the Telstra deal signed was the cause, but that has now been done and the rollout is going full steam ahead. While annoying, if NBN Co had started without that deal in place, then the cost would have blown out because of the need to dig all their own trenches instead of having access to Telstra's. That would have been a waste.

They also didn't sit around for the 10 months. Instead, they instigated the construction of the complete nationwide transit loop (back end) network, which didn't require the Telstra deal to proceed.

You may also have heard that Corning has finished the $40m upgrade of their Victorian fibre factory and added another 400 employees. They will now be producing 12-strand ribbon fibre for the NBN and mark the first time in Australia that this sort of fibre has been used. It will speed and cheapen the rollout because it's so much easier to join.

 

[NBNMyths]

I get about 20Mbps on a 100GB plan from Telstra for just $15 (specially negotiated). I do not want the NBN to be imposed on me where I will probably end up paying $80+ for the same or slightly better.

I find that hard to believe. What else do you have to pay in order to get that $15 broadband? And what other services must you bundle? At the very least you must be paying for line rental ($32), taking your monthly total to around $47.

Continuing my assumption then, you're getting a 20/1Mbps service with 100GB of data for $47/month, plus phone calls.

On the NBN from Exetel you can get a 25/5Mbps service with 100GB of data, a VoIP phone (with number) and flat 10c national calls for $50/month. So an extra $3/month gets you 25% faster downloads, 500% faster uploads and 1/2 price phone calls. http://www.exetel.com.au/residential-fibre-pricing-mainland.php

Additionally, almost nobody can get 20Mbps ADSL2+ in Australia. The average is 8Mbps. You must live on top of the exchange to get 20.