CSS - Clean Seas Seafood

[nizora]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Change of Substantial Shareholder notice, dated 3 February 2012.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120203/pdf/4244vvdpjcbkyv.pdf

Thanks oldblue. Missed that report completely.

Interestingly, one parcel of this off market transfer was 11.5 cents , well above the market price of 8 cents: 12,228,108 shares $1,408,992.

I would assume ,whoever bought the parcel ( paying 30% premium) must have confidence in the company.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Thanks oldblue. Missed that report completely.

Interestingly, one parcel of this off market transfer was 11.5 cents , well above the market price of 8 cents: 12,228,108 shares $1,408,992.

I would assume ,whoever bought the parcel ( paying 30% premium) must have confidence in the company.

I wouldn't be too hasty in reaching that conclusion Nizora. He actually sold heavily during last seasons spawning bounce from March through to May while there was sufficient volume. The sp reached 18c at that time and traded around 12-14 for quite some time. What is important is that he has continued selling up to Jan 2012 and, I believe, will continue to do so when there is enough volume. His average price is around 11c over the course of the year but he is presently selling under 8c.

I had considered him a long term foundation investor when he purchased in 2010. I now believe he has lost confidence in CSS and wants out.
Time will tell if I am correct.

Disc - min invest. Opinion only . DYOR.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I have decided to exit my remaining minor holding. Now that FT is selling down it is unlikely another white knight will appear. I was going to hold for the inevitable Cap Raising this year but I am not convinced it will succeed. In any case, there will be an opportunity to purchase on market, probably at a lower price than the CR, if they succeed.

disc- Not invested. Opinion only, not based on any factual information. DYOR.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Look's like me and KingKev are the last men standing on this thread.

This may well be the last you hear from me as I go into hibernation until next season, although, I don't believe there will be a next season.
My previous prediction of CSS's fate, in 2010, was unexpectedly saved by the emergence of white knight Frode Teigen. I don't believe that will happen again.

Reading between the lines on today's announcement I can see the following:

1. SBT - This seasons spawning has been very disappointing with around double the number of fingerlings but that will depend on mortality rates over the next couple of months. They are appear to be reluctant to transfer them to sea cages, why, because they won't survive. IMO, there has been no improvement on last year.

2. Cash burn - A loss of around $6-7M this year. This has been reduced mainly by cost savings not improved revenue/profits. Reducing cost overheads in a profitable well run company is appealing but for CSS, however, it is a sign of desperation.

3. YTK - An abysmal failure, blaming seasonal growth variation is a smoke screen. They are no longer selling down excess inventory and that's why things don't look so good for YTK.

Good luck to those of you still holding!

Disc - not invested, opinion only, not based on any factual information. DYOR.

 

[nizora]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Look's like me and KingKev are the last men standing on this thread.

This may well be the last you hear from me as I go into hibernation until next season, although, I don't believe there will be a next season.

Tge,

I have always enjoyed reading your comments, they are very much appreciated.

It would be sad if you disappear from this forum ! You shall be missed by many.
Hope you still drop in occasionally,and share your valuable insight.

This fish is not dead yet, only the hope that is diminishing at the moment. Let's hope the hope has new breath of life someday!

 

[kingkev]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Tge,

I have always enjoyed reading your comments, they are very much appreciated.

It would be sad if you disappear from this forum ! You shall be missed by many.
Hope you still drop in occasionally,and share your valuable insight.

This fish is not dead yet, only the hope that is diminishing at the moment. Let's hope the hope has new breath of life someday!

This story has not finished yet. Intellectual property worth about 20 mill conservativleyspeaking

assets worth 30 mill

Still in R&D mode .........

Tuna stocks seriously threatened...........

Great Thematics

Time to accumulate and then hibernate for another year

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

This story has not finished yet. Intellectual property worth about 20 mill conservativleyspeaking

assets worth 30 mill

Still in R&D mode .........

Tuna stocks seriously threatened...........

Great Thematics

Time to accumulate and then hibernate for another year

Fair point.

Will keep my eye on them, with the intention of buying if I see it worthwhile when they become destressed.

-Liar-

 

[Sdajii]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

IP worth $20M? Who is going to pay $20 million to find out how to kill tuna?

No progress for several years. None. 100% mortality every year. Never more than a handful of tuna growing to juveniles, and they aren't living longer than years ago. The latest claim of success came when they put them in offshore cages. Well, they all died, but somehow it was a success because it hadn't been done before. I'd say it looks more like "Oh, that sucks, this doesn't work, the water is too cold" than "Yay! We put them in offshore cages!". If they gained anything at all it's the knowledge that this is going to be harder than expecting. That's not a positive thing. Maybe this year they can put some in fresh water and say it's a success because that had never been tried either 100% mortality, but hey, no one has ever tried farming them in fresh water! Yay.

Killer cash burn, little cash on hand, their income source (YTK) is full of disease and apparently they're considering abandoning it entirely (!!!). Looking at cash burn, capital will be required shortly, and it will be impossible to get.

Company in death throes.

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

IP worth $20M? Who is going to pay $20 million to find out how to kill tuna?

No progress for several years. None. 100% mortality every year. Never more than a handful of tuna growing to juveniles, and they aren't living longer than years ago. The latest claim of success came when they put them in offshore cages. Well, they all died, but somehow it was a success because it hadn't been done before. I'd say it looks more like "Oh, that sucks, this doesn't work, the water is too cold" than "Yay! We put them in offshore cages!". If they gained anything at all it's the knowledge that this is going to be harder than expecting. That's not a positive thing. Maybe this year they can put some in fresh water and say it's a success because that had never been tried either 100% mortality, but hey, no one has ever tried farming them in fresh water! Yay.

Killer cash burn, little cash on hand, their income source (YTK) is full of disease and apparently they're considering abandoning it entirely (!!!). Looking at cash burn, capital will be required shortly, and it will be impossible to get.

Company in death throes.

Sdajii,

Completely agree. I'm only interested in the 'plant and equipment assets' - cages, nets, new rearing facility, buildings, land, etc and maybe some of the licences they have (tuna quota). I do not care for their IP or biological assets.

I'm working on a value of around 6 cents a share before fire sale for the above.

I'd consider buying in if it drops a couple of cents below that.

Opinion only, DYOR - check their annual report for a start.

-Liar-

 

[Sdajii]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Sdajii,

Completely agree. I'm only interested in the 'plant and equipment assets' - cages, nets, new rearing facility, buildings, land, etc and maybe some of the licences they have (tuna quota). I do not care for their IP or biological assets.

I'm working on a value of around 6 cents a share before fire sale for the above.

I'd consider buying in if it drops a couple of cents below that.

Opinion only, DYOR - check their annual report for a start.

-Liar-

Yeah, if you think you have a pretty good idea of what they're worth in liquidation you'd be pretty tempted. I don't know what they'd end up getting for their assets in a fire sale, but if it's 6c you might be able to pick up a bargain. Alternatively they could get taken over, but the new group would only do that with a fresh plan, and that would boost the price anyway. The crunch is coming either way.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I have put my hibernation plans on hold due to recent developments which deserve comment.

The admission that the YTK stock has developed intestinal disease is a major concern.
They are advising that only around 30% of stock is affected. I believe this will increase dramatically.
The CEO's admission that they may abandon YTK is a disaster for the company. The only income/revenue they derive , apart from investors funds, is from the YTK business.
Investors will be left with an SBT project that requires substantial capital input with no income.

As for the valuation of CSS, it is virtually worthless apart from 2nd hand nets, equipment breeding tanks etc. The actual Arno Bay facility is far in excess of what is needed to propagate YTK fingerlings and would be commercially unviable.
I wouldn't hazard a guess at CSS's valuation but without YTK it would be a fraction of my previous estimates and the current market value.

I am of the opinion that CSS will suffer the same fate as WKL and AAQ.
Watch closely for directors jumping ship now.....I predict Ellis-Flint will be the first !


Disc - Not invested. Opinion only, not based on any factual information.DYOR.

 

[nizora]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I have put my hibernation plans on hold due to recent developments which deserve comment.

The admission that the YTK stock has developed intestinal disease is a major concern.
They are advising that only around 30% of stock is affected. I believe this will increase dramatically.
The CEO's admission that they may abandon YTK is a disaster for the company. The only income/revenue they derive , apart from investors funds, is from the YTK business.
Investors will be left with an SBT project that requires substantial capital input with no income.

As for the valuation of CSS, it is virtually worthless apart from 2nd hand nets, equipment breeding tanks etc. The actual Arno Bay facility is far in excess of what is needed to propagate YTK fingerlings and would be commercially unviable.
I wouldn't hazard a guess at CSS's valuation but without YTK it would be a fraction of my previous estimates and the current market value.

I am of the opinion that CSS will suffer the same fate as WKL and AAQ.
Watch closely for directors jumping ship now.....I predict Ellis-Flint will be the first !

Welcome back tge!

Thank you again for your valuable info!

You obviously got more detailed information than what the company announced to the market .

It is frightening to contemplate that the company is heading the direction you mentioned.

Ending like AAQ ? Would really be sad for many if that happens.

I am watching this one closely!

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Welcome back tge!

Thank you again for your valuable info!

You obviously got more detailed information than what the company announced to the market .
It is frightening to contemplate that the company is heading the direction you mentioned.

Ending like AAQ ? Would really be sad for many if that happens.

I am watching this one closely!

All that information tge has written about can be obtained from their announcements - you just have to be diligent Nizora.

-Liar-

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Welcome back tge!

Thank you again for your valuable info!

You obviously got more detailed information than what the company announced to the market .

It is frightening to contemplate that the company is heading the direction you mentioned.

Ending like AAQ ? Would really be sad for many if that happens.

I am watching this one closely!

Hi Nizora,


No, I don't have any more information than is publicly available but I am shocked that they are contemplating shutting down the YTK business as it is their only source of potential income for the foreseeable future. They have been reporting their intention to grow this business to profitability and now, all of a sudden ,it could be shut down. Drastic unplanned business decisions such as this spell major trouble and desperation.
I only make the comparison to WKL and AAQ is because they went through similar troubles i.e. WKL ( Fish Mortalities) and AAQ ( Lack of funds to continue as a going concern ). I hope for the sake of all of you still invested CSS doesn't end up suffering the same fate but I am not confident.
Normally, IMO, a clear sign the end is nigh is when directors start resigning, particularly, the Chairman.

Disc - As before -not invested, purely opinion only not factual information. DYOR

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

For the consideration of those of you still invested in CSS I thought I would provide an update to my valuation calculation. Pls note that this is purely my own assessment and has been calculated using publicly available information and a number of assumptions, due to limited information from CSS, but I don’t believe I am too far off the mark.

I will provide a basic valuation as I did on post #947.
The figures in brackets were my, and CSS’s , previous valuations.

1. Property / Infrastructure - $ 5M ( previous $ 15M / CSS $ 30M )
2. Biological assets ( SBT/YTK stock ) - $ 5m ( Previous $ 10M /CSS $16.6M)
3. Non current ( leases/licences ) - $ 2M ( previous $ 5M/CSS $ 15.3M )
4. Intangible assets ( research ) - $ 0 ( Previous $ 0 / CSS $ 15.3M)
5. Cash on Hand - $ 6M ( Previous $ 7.3M / CSS $ 7.3 M )


A brief explanation of how I derived the above figures is explained below:

1. Property / Infrastructure – CSS’s Arno Bay facility can only be used for one purpose , SBT propagation and breeding. It is in the middle of nowhere ( check on google earth ). The facility has been specifically designed for holding broodstock and raising SBT fingerlings. The property is of very low value in my view.
Some of the infrastructure could be sold 2nd hand.

2. Biological assets – I have applied a 16.7% mortality to YTK and adjusted the value of remaining stock to allow for poorer quality diseased fish. Japanese customers are very reluctant to pay for poor quality, in fact, I am not convinced they will purchase these fish.

3. Non current – I have reduced the value of the leases as there are no SBT juveniles and YTK is dramatically reduced in scale. This could become $ 0 if they abandon the YTK business.

4. Intangible – Worthless in my view. If it can’t achieve commercial scale it has no economic value.

5. Cash – I have added the $ 1.6M to the previous cash on hand and deducted the declining revenue ( post # 977 ) and allowed for the $ 3.4M shortfall required for SBT trials this season. The remaining $ 6M is being rapidly depleted , in my opinion, due to reduced revenue from YTK and high cost of maintaining the sbt project.

All of the above is calculated on reported YTK mortality of 16.7% . I actually believe this figure will be amended to a much higher quantity of mortalities which will, in turn, reduce the values above.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

I forgot to add my usual disclosure for the previous post:

Not invested, opinion only and my own assumptions. DYOR.

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Watch closely for directors jumping ship now.....I predict Ellis-Flint will be the first !

"The Company also announces that Mr John Ellice‐Flint has advised the Board of his decision to step down as Chairman and as a Director of Clean Seas Tuna, effective 31st May 2012."



I only wish I could predict next weeks lotto numbers with such certainty!

 

[kingkev]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

"The Company also announces that Mr John Ellice‐Flint has advised the Board of his decision to step down as Chairman and as a Director of Clean Seas Tuna, effective 31st May 2012."



I only wish I could predict next weeks lotto numbers with such certainty!

Well you were right AGAIN.............

No reaction to todays ann........reaction occured last week. It's all about hope now.
Reduced my holding by 50% because of sick YTK...........
Still hold a large parcel but.................

 

[tge oracle]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

Good luck Kev,


Another thing you should be aware of from today's announcement is that the juveniles are only 30-50mm. This suggests, to me , that the juveniles spawned in Dec are dead as the size/growth rate doesn't add up.
By my calculation, 30-50mm juveniles are only 3-5 weeks old which suggests they were spawned mid to late January. If this is the case, there has definitely been no improvement on last years grow out trials.

Disc - Not invested. Opinion only. DYOR.

 

[Liar's Poker]

Re: CSS - Clean Seas Tuna

"The Company also announces that Mr John Ellice‐Flint has advised the Board of his decision to step down as Chairman and as a Director of Clean Seas Tuna, effective 31st May 2012."



I only wish I could predict next weeks lotto numbers with such certainty!

Great call tge

-Liar-