NBN Rollout Scrapped

[sails]

Just watching the ABC 24 news channel and they were showing a speech by 1 vote Tony to the WA Liberal party transmitted via broadband, so there was the usual small amount of pixellation and low video resolution on my big HD plasma...funny thing was just 2 or 3 minutes into his diatribe about how we didn't need the NBN the sound dropped out and the picture started freezing..he he.

Hmmm, I wonder if that was delibertely sabotaged by ABC?.... Timing seems a bit too convenient and we all know ABC does tend to have a left bias. Perhaps we need a media inquiry to the ABC.

I don't remember ABC having any such problems before.

 

[NBNMyths]

Is there anything about this government that is not downright deceitful?


From the Age by Clancy Yeates: Treasury warned of risk to taxpayers on broadband

PREVIOUSLY secret documents show the federal government was warned that the national broadband network would expose taxpayers to ''considerable financial risks'', only weeks after the ambitious high-speed internet plan was unveiled.

Treasury told the government it would have to consider shielding the network from private-sector rivals to help it be viable.​

No wonder this government want to control the media so that their lies and dishonesty are not made known to the public. Shame on them.

It beggers belief that a government who is supposed to be representing the people and in the best interests of Australia is allowed to continue these horrendous and often deceitful decisions which they try to keep "secret" so the public don't find out.

I think the rant has ended, but the steam is still coming out...

Far from your claim that the Government ignored the treasury, the documents show just how hard they listened to that advice, and have addressed the risks over the past 2 years.

They appointed KPMG/McKinsey to conduct a study into the viability of the NBN, it's costing assumptions and technologies. They accepted the advice and recommendations of that study.

They have put in place the anti-cherry picking provisions of the NBN legislation, they have secured deals with Telstra and Optus to migrate customers, and they have secured deals with Telstra to reduce the cost of the rollout by using existing pit/pipe/duct/pole infrastructure.

The treasury advice referred to in the article is now 2 years old, and other (later) documents released with them show how treasury's warnings have reduced and evolved as their concerns have been addressed. You can read all the treasry docs released as part of the FOI here, if you so desire:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=087&ContentID=2120

Treasury docs show NBN worries evolve
The evolving outlook of the Treasury reflects the evolving state of the network. A number of key pieces of legislation have been passed since 2009, including competition and consumer safeguards legislation and the NBN companies Bill, aimed at preventing cherry picking by fibre providers, which could have made achieving a return on investment for the network unviable. Alongside these changes, the roll-out of the network progressed in mainland and Tasmanian sites. Definitive agreements were also reached, with Telstra and Optus to ensure that their customers are migrated onto the NBN, as the telcos' copper and hybrid fibre-coaxial networks are shut down over the next ten years.

While the Treasury will likely perceive factors of the NBN as being a risk until the entire network is rolled out, paid off and privatised, factors that may have caused alarm for the department two years ago are not the same risks that the network faces today. And rather than being a worrying sign that the NBN is doomed, the changing nature of the concerns show that a number of the Treasury's issues have been addressed. The downgrading of risks from being "considerable" to just risks, and the Telstra concerns disappearing, show that problems can be eased or worked around. The replacement of these risks with considerations about cost blowouts is also heartening, since such a statement could be in the risk assessment of any major project, particularly one of the scale of the NBN.

 

[sptrawler]

Far from your claim that the Government ignored the treasury, the documents show just how hard they listened to that advice, and have addressed the risks over the past 2 years.

They appointed KPMG/McKinsey to conduct a study into the viability of the NBN, it's costing assumptions and technologies. They accepted the advice and recommendations of that study.

They have put in place the anti-cherry picking provisions of the NBN legislation, they have secured deals with Telstra and Optus to migrate customers, and they have secured deals with Telstra to reduce the cost of the rollout by using existing pit/pipe/duct/pole infrastructure.

The treasury advice referred to in the article is now 2 years old, and other (later) documents released with them show how treasury's warnings have reduced and evolved as their concerns have been addressed. You can read all the treasry docs released as part of the FOI here, if you so desire:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/contentitem.asp?NavId=087&ContentID=2120

Thats the part that makes sick to the stomach, the government shafting a public listed company, in order to get market advantage.
The sooner this lot are thrown out the better, hopefully Thompson will be the catalyst.
Then we will see how much the public want the N.B.N and carbon tax.

 

[NBNMyths]

Thats the part that makes sick to the stomach, the government shafting a public listed company, in order to get market advantage.

I assume you mean Telstra?They certainly don't seem unhappy about the deal.

What would you suggest instead? Telstra have an atrocious record of overcharging, using their monopoly power and not improving infrastructure outside profitable areas. No other company is big enough to take them on. Even Optus stopped trying 10 years ago.

To see their vision of fast broadband, you only need to look at South Brisbane. You really think we'd be better off leaving it to Telstra?

Why we can't trust Telstra with FTTP

...What, then, will the NBN's foes make of the revelation this week that pricing for Telstra's new fibre-to-the-premise (FTTP) services in South Brisbane ”” which I have previously held up as a prime example of why nobody believes wireless can be a full replacement for fixed lines ”” is not only going to be high, but will force wholesale customers to bundle data services with overpriced voice lines customers don't want or need.

Telstra's proposed wholesale pricing was revealed by industry journal CommsDay and showed that Telstra has no compunction in pricing its FTTP wholesale services at rates far higher than its existing ADSL services. A service provider wanting to offer 8Mbps/384Kbps FTTP services would be paying Telstra as much as $28 per month; $35 per month for a 30Mbps/1Mbps service; and $50 per month for a 100Mbps/5Mbps service.

Compare that with NBN Co's proposed wholesale pricing, where $27 per month will get internet service providers (ISPs) a 25Mbps/5Mbps service, $34 per month will get a 50Mbps/20Mbps service, and a 100Mbps service costs just $38 per month with a 40Mbps backchannel and Telstra's pricing looks positively extortionate.​

 

[sptrawler]

All the other operaters were allowed to "cherry pick" and pay less for high density access. While having no obligation to supply services to non profitable areas. I am sure Telstra wouldn't have been extended the same breaks in Asia.
Also if the N.B.N was about providing competition, why would they let Telstra keep its network as competition for the N.B.N
Why doesn't the N.B.N want to allow it, because it doesn't make business sense.
Anyway we are going over a well worn path. You may feel the government carried out the process in an admirable manner, I don't.
We will just have to agree to disagree.

 

[bellenuit]

Some Hiccups?

Plan to seperate Telstra to pave way for NBN facing objections by the ACCC

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/aus...tute-for-the-nbn/story-e6frgakx-1226125493744

.....

The ACCC has highlighted concerns about provisions against Telstra promoting wireless services as a substitute for NBN Co's fibre services, and the limitation on the telco's ability to provide cable internet services to customers, as among issues that would prevent its approval of the plan.

The ACCC is also concerned that the $11 billion deal between the NBN Co and Telstra for the telco giant to migrate its customers on to the new fibre network could potentially be exempt from competition laws without undergoing further ACCC scrutiny.

“The ACCC has serious concerns about arrangements between Telstra and NBN CO that include the parties' ability to vary the arrangements without further scrutiny by the ACCC,” the regulator said.

.......

 

[sptrawler]

Don't worry bellinuit, the government will just tell the ACCC to shut up or they will sack them, yep that works, that's why they use Conroy.
Pig of a government with a pig of a minister with a lackey ACCC.
Don't mean to upset anyone just my opinion.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have recently been privy to some huddles in Canberra, and the NBN will be scrapped.

The rollout will go, somewhat, but the NBN will not exist.

Think about it.

gg

 

[NBNMyths]

I have recently been privy to some huddles in Canberra, and the NBN will be scrapped.

The rollout will go, somewhat, but the NBN will not exist.

Think about it.

gg

Sure GG, sure it will. Will this prediction be any more accurate than the one that began this thread? Remember this:

I have it on good opinion from one of my Queensland ALP contacts , that the NBN is to be "modified".

This will free up money for the Flood and Cyclone Reconstruction.

The word "scrapped" will not be used.

"Modified" is the buzzword.

One can imagine a Dalek saying it...."Modified, modified, modified"

gg

Sorry mate, but the only thing that could stop the NBN would be a change in Government.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sure GG, sure it will. Will this prediction be any more accurate than the one that began this thread? Remember this:

I wish I got paid for every time someone posted a reply to a thread.

Gotcha.

gg

 

[NBNMyths]

Some Hiccups?

Plan to seperate Telstra to pave way for NBN facing objections by the ACCC

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/aus...tute-for-the-nbn/story-e6frgakx-1226125493744

.....

The ACCC has highlighted concerns about provisions against Telstra promoting wireless services as a substitute for NBN Co's fibre services, and the limitation on the telco's ability to provide cable internet services to customers, as among issues that would prevent its approval of the plan.

The ACCC is also concerned that the $11 billion deal between the NBN Co and Telstra for the telco giant to migrate its customers on to the new fibre network could potentially be exempt from competition laws without undergoing further ACCC scrutiny.

“The ACCC has serious concerns about arrangements between Telstra and NBN CO that include the parties' ability to vary the arrangements without further scrutiny by the ACCC,” the regulator said.

.......

Don't worry bellinuit, the government will just tell the ACCC to shut up or they will sack them, yep that works, that's why they use Conroy.
Pig of a government with a pig of a minister with a lackey ACCC.
Don't mean to upset anyone just my opinion.

According to the Chairman of the ACCC, (transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3305905.htm ) they have only identified three major issues in Telstra’s separation undertaking, which is quite remarkable given that we are talking about splitting one of Australia's largest companies.

Of the three, the first is identified as a technical issue which will be easily rectified. The other two are identified by the ACCC chairman as being “clearly not insurmountable”, and that he has already begun discussions with Telstra about them.

 

[sptrawler]

According to the Chairman of the ACCC, (transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3305905.htm ) they have only identified three major issues in Telstra’s separation undertaking, which is quite remarkable given that we are talking about splitting one of Australia's largest companies.

Of the three, the first is identified as a technical issue which will be easily rectified. The other two are identified by the ACCC chairman as being “clearly not insurmountable”, and that he has already begun discussions with Telstra about them.

You know as well as anyone the N.B.N will be covering its behind in case there is a change of government. Which is a slight possibility, the N.B.N management are dealing with a collapsing government and have to fullfill a long term project.
The whole project will be hamstrung with lack of long term contract security and contract "get out clauses" will be rife.

 

[NBNMyths]

You know as well as anyone the N.B.N will be covering its behind in case there is a change of government. Which is a slight possibility, the N.B.N management are dealing with a collapsing government and have to fullfill a long term project.
The whole project will be hamstrung with lack of long term contract security and contract "get out clauses" will be rife.

My guess (and hope) is that there will be some difficult and expensive "get out" clauses in there. If I were tendering, I'd want some serious guarantees before spending big $$$ investing in people, training and equipment to conduct the rollout.

And if I were NBN Co, I'd be quite happy to oblige them. Why not? If you are planning a 10-year rollout, why wouldn't you be happy to sign ~5 year contracts with expensive escape clauses?

 

[Knobby22]

My guess (and hope) is that there will be some difficult and expensive "get out" clauses in there. If I were tendering, I'd want some serious guarantees before spending big $$$ investing in people, training and equipment to conduct the rollout.

And if I were NBN Co, I'd be quite happy to oblige them. Why not? If you are planning a 10-year rollout, why wouldn't you be happy to sign ~5 year contracts with expensive escape clauses?

If the contracts are signed they will be difficult to get out of.
The Libs will probably do some modification but keep it essentially in my view. They would lose a lot of votes in the bush if some get it and others don't.

 

[sptrawler]

My guess (and hope) is that there will be some difficult and expensive "get out" clauses in there. If I were tendering, I'd want some serious guarantees before spending big $$$ investing in people, training and equipment to conduct the rollout.

And if I were NBN Co, I'd be quite happy to oblige them. Why not? If you are planning a 10-year rollout, why wouldn't you be happy to sign ~5 year contracts with expensive escape clauses?

For once I agree with you.
N.B.N is between a rock and a hard place.

 

[sptrawler]

Oakeshott came out with a classic today, he wants Conroy to explain to the Australian people the productivity improvements and the jobs that will be created by the N.B.N.
Conroy would have already spelled it out, if he knew.
Also wouldn't you think, as the chairman of the joint parliamentary committee of the N.B.N, Oakeshott would already have the answers.
It just goes to show another government stuff up about to explode.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...h-says-oakeshott/story-fn59niix-1226126660341

 

[sptrawler]

At last analysts are starting to look at the N.B.N business case and finding there isn't one.
It is just like all the other poorly thought out projects this government has started.
I only hope it hasn't gone too far.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/analyst-pokes-hole-in-nbn-business-plan-20110831-1jlyf.html

And it is from the S.M.H so nbnmyths can't say it's biased. LOL

 

[NBNMyths]

At last analysts are starting to look at the N.B.N business case and finding there isn't one.
It is just like all the other poorly thought out projects this government has started.
I only hope it hasn't gone too far.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/analyst-pokes-hole-in-nbn-business-plan-20110831-1jlyf.html

And it is from the S.M.H so nbnmyths can't say it's biased. LOL

Reading the article, the guy says that NBN are expecting a wholesale average of $33 per customer, but that the current average is only $24.64.

I suspect the analyst isn't including a broadband wholesale plus a line rental wholesale in his $24.64 current average, considering Telstra charge about $26 for wholesale line rental alone.

iiNet said recently that the wholesale NBN pricing is similar to what they pay in ULL areas (on-net) and much, much less than they pay outside ULL areas (off-net).

"(iiNet CEO) Malone didn’t provide any further details about what precisely iiNet will charge customers to connect to the predominantly fibre-based network. However, company briefing documents released today contained a slide which stated iiNet’s current costs for connecting customers to its own network were “similar to [the] proposed NBN” costs ”” at around $32 or $33 per month.However, the costs came down dramatically, the slide revealed ”” from about $57 a month ”” for customers who were not currently using iiNet’s own network but were connecting through the ISP’s resold services from telcos like Telstra or Optus.​

http://delimiter.com.au/2011/08/15/iinets-nbn-costs-similar-to-adsl/

 

[sptrawler]

Reading the article, the guy says that NBN are expecting a wholesale average of $33 per customer, but that the current average is only $24.64.

I suspect the analyst isn't including a broadband wholesale plus a line rental wholesale in his $24.64 current average, considering Telstra charge about $26 for wholesale line rental alone.

iiNet said recently that the wholesale NBN pricing is similar to what they pay in ULL areas (on-net) and much, much less than they pay outside ULL areas (off-net).

"(iiNet CEO) Malone didn’t provide any further details about what precisely iiNet will charge customers to connect to the predominantly fibre-based network. However, company briefing documents released today contained a slide which stated iiNet’s current costs for connecting customers to its own network were “similar to [the] proposed NBN” costs ”” at around $32 or $33 per month.However, the costs came down dramatically, the slide revealed ”” from about $57 a month ”” for customers who were not currently using iiNet’s own network but were connecting through the ISP’s resold services from telcos like Telstra or Optus.​

http://delimiter.com.au/2011/08/15/iinets-nbn-costs-similar-to-adsl/

The N.B.N is also factoring an increase to $65 per connection by 2025, which is an increase of over 5% annually, which would appear ambitious.
However, as has been shown, the government can do what it likes and rewrite the rules as required, it doesn't have the ACCC to contend with.
If they aren't making enough money they will just put up the prices and say it is in the national interest and guess what there is no competition. LOL What a joke.

 

[NBNMyths]

The N.B.N is also factoring an increase to $65 per connection by 2025, which is an increase of over 5% annually, which would appear ambitious.
However, as has been shown, the government can do what it likes and rewrite the rules as required, it doesn't have the ACCC to contend with.
If they aren't making enough money they will just put up the prices and say it is in the national interest and guess what there is no competition. LOL What a joke.

Remember that that's average revenue per customer. It's an average of home and business customers, plus multicast (ie IPTV).

To achieve their forecast of $65 per customer by 2025, they are banking on a gradual move up the speed tiers. I don't see why that's unlikely when you consider the constant speed increases we have demanded for the last 15 years. Their projections are based on industry-standard forecasts of bandwidth growth, which have always proved to be accurate or even conservative. IPTV is set to explode, and that alone adds $5/month from every user per 20Mbps (say per 4x HD channels). The $65 also includes inflation, so would be closer to $40 in todays dollars.