AWE - AWE Limited
- Thread starter Afterglow
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Well I think that people are just buying whatever they can get their hands on and as most that have owned awe in the past feel, the shares are cheap (relative to before this drop in price). Oil seems to be getting more popular again and awe is still pumping that reliably.
I think that they may have turned the corner but it is risky as I am suspecting that if the market cools then they may come off fairly quickly back to the 1.50 level.
Then if they have a successful drill hole, things will become more positive and maybe some decent buying will return very quickly, you would be flat out getting in below 1.85.
So in summary: You could buy them and wait for some news / continuation in buying; or you could wait for the news / confirmation of reversal and then buy. Note that they have been at these levels since July.
OR you could avoid completely.
I will buy some shares, then I'll repost and tell everyone here to buy as much as possible. Just wait a few days please. thanks. Maybe I should get a newsletter circulated?! (This is all tongue in cheek).
Every time I have bought this share, they have managed to drop about 20% in a shortish space of time, so if you all want, I could buy some first then you could get in cheaper ? Let me know. I seem to have the (magic touch)^-1
Good luck everyone, I am sure there are a LOT of people watching AWE at the moment waiting impatiently....Please excuse the bad humour.
I think that they may have turned the corner but it is risky as I am suspecting that if the market cools then they may come off fairly quickly back to the 1.50 level.
Then if they have a successful drill hole, things will become more positive and maybe some decent buying will return very quickly, you would be flat out getting in below 1.85.
So in summary: You could buy them and wait for some news / continuation in buying; or you could wait for the news / confirmation of reversal and then buy. Note that they have been at these levels since July.
OR you could avoid completely.
I will buy some shares, then I'll repost and tell everyone here to buy as much as possible. Just wait a few days please. thanks. Maybe I should get a newsletter circulated?! (This is all tongue in cheek).
Every time I have bought this share, they have managed to drop about 20% in a shortish space of time, so if you all want, I could buy some first then you could get in cheaper ? Let me know. I seem to have the (magic touch)^-1
Good luck everyone, I am sure there are a LOT of people watching AWE at the moment waiting impatiently....Please excuse the bad humour.
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Classic stuff!
I was considering getting rid of these recently... glad I held on - things are looking up!
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Next year 2011 promises great things for AWE. It's oil & gas production is expected to significantly increase and that will push AWE to greater heights in 2011. Their gas discovery in the Perth basin is better than expectations and it's proximity to infrastructure and it's deal with Synergy will see cash starting to flow as soon as end of 2010.
Major breakdowns in Bass straits and Tui have been fixed and run up to full production is planned in the December quarter. The Tui exploration program had been most disappointing and now been scaled back and efforts are diverted to some of it's very promising new discoveries in Yemen and Sugarloaf USA.
All in, it looks like AWE is over the worst and will commence it's recovery and happy days again in the new year.
Major breakdowns in Bass straits and Tui have been fixed and run up to full production is planned in the December quarter. The Tui exploration program had been most disappointing and now been scaled back and efforts are diverted to some of it's very promising new discoveries in Yemen and Sugarloaf USA.
All in, it looks like AWE is over the worst and will commence it's recovery and happy days again in the new year.
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I saw a lot people bagging AWE for a while and perhaps for good reasons but I think the fundamentals were too good to be ignored. It was nice checking my shares this morning!
I'm wondering if it's worth buying some more - what do you think the share price might reach if things go well?
I'm wondering if it's worth buying some more - what do you think the share price might reach if things go well?
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Just noticed that AWE has hit a long time low at $1.18. Nonetheless it is rated as a strong buy and according to analysts ratings EPS should go up 5 fold in the next 12 months. Is this another case of overlooked value or are we missing something ?
In particular I remember they took over EDE last year and have an interest in EKA. Given the performance of the other oil shale company AUT in the last 12 months this seems a real puzzle. I would have thought the EDE investment would be starting to bear fruit ?
In particular I remember they took over EDE last year and have an interest in EKA. Given the performance of the other oil shale company AUT in the last 12 months this seems a real puzzle. I would have thought the EDE investment would be starting to bear fruit ?
Just noticed that AWE has hit a long time low at $1.18. Nonetheless it is rated as a strong buy and according to analysts ratings EPS should go up 5 fold in the next 12 months. Is this another case of overlooked value or are we missing something ?
In particular I remember they took over EDE last year and have an interest in EKA. Given the performance of the other oil shale company AUT in the last 12 months this seems a real puzzle. I would have thought the EDE investment would be starting to bear fruit ?
Not sure you have the right info here, basilio.
EDE - Eden Energy is listed and major shareholder is Noble Energy with 20.8% according to the company's website. ???
Who is EKA ???
Do you have a link to any of the analysts' ratings?
Cheers
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OOPs!! Brain fade in that last post. I meant to say Adelphi (ADI) . I had shares in them and they were taken over by AWE at what many shareholders then thought an unreasonably low price.
Since then AUT which is also into the Eagleford Shale has gone from strength to strength and EKA which is also involved in the aame play has somewhat stagnated.
Re the analysts. I was doing some research on my sharebrokers site.
Forecast Earnings EPS (c) PE Growth (%)
Year Ending 2011-06-30 2.40 50.20 0.00
Year Ending 2012-06-30 12.10 10.10 397.50
Year Ending 30-06-11 EPS (c) PE Growth (%)
Median 2.40 50.20
High 8.00 15.30
Low
7 Days Ago 3.10
30 Days Ago 3.10
60 Days Ago 2.00
90 Days Ago 2.00
Number of Analyst Estimates: 6
Year Ending 30-06-12 EPS (c) PE Growth (%)
12.10 10.10 397.50
15.70 7.80 97.50
7.60 16.10
13.30
13.30
11.40
11.40
Number of Analyst Estimates: 6
Current Analyst Recommendations (What are the analysts recommending?)
4 Strong buys 1 hold
Strong Buy = 1, Mod. Buy = 2, Hold = 3, Mod. Sell = 4, Strong Sell = 5
(Sorry for the jumbled figures. I havn't quite got hold of reconstructing the tables.)
Thanks for the clarification, basilio.
The term "PE growth" threw me for a while, particularly as AWE made a net loss after tax of $28.9m in the y/e 30 June 2010 ($21.1m after adjustment for abnormals) so of course the EPS and P/E for the year was negative. Any profit this year will produce a mathematically impressive result from that starting point although the interim net loss of $49.8m to 31 December 2010 doesn't bode particularly well for the full year. Unless there's been some sizeable abnormal gains from asset sales along the way.
I hold a few AWE but don't share the analysts' optimism. Neither, it seems, does the market but I hope that it, and I, are both wrong.
The term "PE growth" threw me for a while, particularly as AWE made a net loss after tax of $28.9m in the y/e 30 June 2010 ($21.1m after adjustment for abnormals) so of course the EPS and P/E for the year was negative. Any profit this year will produce a mathematically impressive result from that starting point although the interim net loss of $49.8m to 31 December 2010 doesn't bode particularly well for the full year. Unless there's been some sizeable abnormal gains from asset sales along the way.
I hold a few AWE but don't share the analysts' optimism. Neither, it seems, does the market but I hope that it, and I, are both wrong.
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AWE has been rising on rising volume for 11 trading days straight, whilst the rest of the market has been tanking. It's up over 3% today alone. Anyone know anything?
I suggest that todays rise would have some relationship to the BHP investment in the US oil shale operations of Petrohawk and the ownership of producing oil wells there following the take over of ADI last year.
skc
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They are running into a strong resistance band around $1.45-$1.48 which is where prices stalled for the day. It would be a huge ask for AWE to go past this on first go imo without any newsflow, and a retracement to test $1.30 (of monthly pivot also 50% retracement of recent leg up) may be needed before it heads back up. That will form a potential invert head and shoulders pattern.
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Thanks Nioka and SKS, for those great replies. Lovely chart. Very helpful.
Will tuck my wallet away for the moment and wait till something more confirming happens.
Will tuck my wallet away for the moment and wait till something more confirming happens.
skc
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It's just a chart. For all I know AWE could bolt on Monday or drop 25%...
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Don't worry, I take full responsibility for my interpretation and response to it.
I must admit that I was thinking that it must have a saw head because it slammed into that resistance line pretty hard.Might have cracked something this time! It's seems great value and Morning star like it's value there.
I must admit that I was thinking that it must have a saw head because it slammed into that resistance line pretty hard.Might have cracked something this time! It's seems great value and Morning star like it's value there.
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Making another run. Wonder if it will get through this time?
Daily volume looks ordinary however looking at a 10 day chart is a bit more interesting.
Daily volume looks ordinary however looking at a 10 day chart is a bit more interesting.
Hi AWE posters
I posted this on the NWE thread but applies equally to you guys...
Hi Joe,
I've read the posting rules and I believe that I am entitled to post this it calls upon shareholders of NWE to call upon the WA minister for the Environment to make a decision.
In July 2011 AWE, NWE & PARTNERS made a gas discovery at Arrowsmith 2 in the Perth Basin WA. They decided that they needed to fracture stimulate the well. They obtained the approval of the EPA. Then in mid November 2011 an unknown 3rd party appealed the EPA decision to the WA Minister for the Environment. Usually such decisions are made in 6 weeks. On my calculations and allowing for the Christmas break it has been 12 weeks and no decision.
As a NWE shareholder I have an interest in the Minister making his decision in a timely manner.
I urge all fellow AWE & NWE shareholders to email the Minister and urge him to make his decision. His email address is Minister.Marmion@dpc.wa.gov.au
Thank you
I posted this on the NWE thread but applies equally to you guys...
Hi Joe,
I've read the posting rules and I believe that I am entitled to post this it calls upon shareholders of NWE to call upon the WA minister for the Environment to make a decision.
In July 2011 AWE, NWE & PARTNERS made a gas discovery at Arrowsmith 2 in the Perth Basin WA. They decided that they needed to fracture stimulate the well. They obtained the approval of the EPA. Then in mid November 2011 an unknown 3rd party appealed the EPA decision to the WA Minister for the Environment. Usually such decisions are made in 6 weeks. On my calculations and allowing for the Christmas break it has been 12 weeks and no decision.
As a NWE shareholder I have an interest in the Minister making his decision in a timely manner.
I urge all fellow AWE & NWE shareholders to email the Minister and urge him to make his decision. His email address is Minister.Marmion@dpc.wa.gov.au
Thank you
