AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Miner]

How about a little more content gentlemen? "
This is pretty low content stuff." - Mi[/COLOR][/I]ner

What do you think is behind today's gains? Is the volume low, average or high? Any resistance levels been breached? Got a chart to offer the readers of this thread?

Hi Joe

At the outset Sorry for being off the topic this time. Please take it as tongue and cheek. laughter is a good medicine as they say.

But people with nicknames could be male or female. Unless they want to tell themselves. So the only people technically know about the posters genders could be themselves and the Administrator. Did you give away their identity as a bunch of blokes??

Ha Ha. Please do not get Pxxx off and start using the stick to flog me under the "no content on AUT" .
To ensure I do contribute something before gets hit with salvos - please see the attached investor presentation published today in ASX to unfold the reasons for AUT movement and prospects.
DYOR - DNH

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

First thing I noticed was that Aurora has go a new logo Well first time I've seen it. Interesting to see it drop a small bit today so far after a confirmatory nudge in AEF on Friday... and since then nothing has changed... I'm off to go start a curry and to read this presentation.

Cheers.

 

[condog]

From page 10

IRR of each well = 150%

PAge 14

Cash flow graph

Annual cash flow to be almost a billion by 2013, 1.5 bilion in 2014, 2 billion in 2016 and 2017.

40 wells been drilled, 40 more in 2011
30 wells on production
currently 4 rigs, 2 frac crews and 1 schlumberger crew doing the Hiway fracs

Drilling obligations to secure leases are well ahead of schedule and will be completed by mid 2012

They have commenced testing of tighter well spacing.

Average production is now over 1000 boepd

Declines are better then NSAI estimates , but not hugely. 14% above NSAI estimates. this figure does not account for NGL stripping.

Average declines after 10 months is sitting at 58%.

Production to be over 10,000 mboe/d by 2012 and over 20,000 by 2014, peaking in 2019 at 29000 mboe/d

ignore cash flow , i got it wrong, appologies, will correct when i get time ta

 

[dashwood]

First thing I noticed was that Aurora has go a new logo Well first time I've seen it. Interesting to see it drop a small bit today so far after a confirmatory nudge in AEF on Friday... and since then nothing has changed... I'm off to go start a curry and to read this presentation.

Cheers.

Yeah everytime AUT nudges or pulls, AEF traders get a sneak preview of action to come on TSX. Anyone know of an original TSX stock now dual-listing on ASX I want that advantage me thinks.

 

[Sdajii]

Any idea when we'll have some meaningful results from the tighter well spacings? I'm sure I'm not the only one eagerly waiting for that one.

I was a little surprised about the price drop today, but figure it's probably just profit taking (of course I'm just guessing). What's the term for the opposite of a dead cat bounce? Probably a bit of that, and people who spent the last couple of months regretting not taking profit at $3.30 back in February deciding to do it today with Friday's high and Canada's strong lead. Let's hope the near future tells them they moved too soon

I'm no technical analyst and accordingly this is almost meaningless, but my guess is we'll see resistance at $3.30 and test it shortly.

 

[estseon]

"Any idea when we'll have some meaningful results from the tighter well spacings? I'm sure I'm not the only one eagerly waiting for that one"

In a previous document (there have been quite a few research docs and presentations) the end of this calendar year, or Q4 2011 was mentioned. They are proposing, I believe, to run the experimental wells adjacent to wells completed in the current "orthodox" manner to get a proper comparison. Note that Hilcorp has selected the oilier acreage of Excelsior for 2 HiWay fracs, the condensate rich acreage of Longhorn for a further test and one in the S/L for the fourth. If that S/L test is adjacent to Morgan/Rancho/Kowalik it will be in the more condensate rich part of the S/L.

Separately, AUT has mentioned differential recoveries of oil and gas in place for the oilier reserves (about 5%) and the gassier reserves (up to 10%). So developed fraccing techniques may have a greater affect on recoveries from the oilier reserves.

Tighter well spacings could result in lower per/well costs if they use the same pad, vertical and production facilities. That, in itself, will increase the NPV of each well.

 

[condog]

esteon AUT have a well recompletion application approved on TRRC for Turnbul 2. This is relevant to your moderated post on recompletions. Hopefully we will get some meaningful data in due course from it on the economics of doing recompletions on poorer wells.

 

[Sdajii]

I remember Q4 being spoken about, but I thought we may have moved the schedule closer if they're already drilling wells with tighter spacing. They should be flowing well withing Q3, but I don't know how long they'll have to flow for to give meaningful data.

 

[skyQuake]

$$$ flow today. Should see a VERY decent close on VERY decent volume.

 

[poverty]

$$$ flow today. Should see a VERY decent close on VERY decent volume.

Looks set to fly

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.


EDIT: Im looking at the depth now 40k at 3.34 got MOBBED in about 10 mins... There was 80k at 3.35 about 5 mins again and now only 60k.. if this continues I would suggest AUT will be atleast at 3.40 by the end of the day... massive result if so.. congrats to the guys who held and congrats to the buyers too. You gotta have faith in a stock with awesome fundamentals and one that keeps giving us great results.

EDITv2: Yep... as I said the just hit another 52w high... here come the profit takers though.

 

[poverty]

Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.

If it gets to 3.40 is there any resistance left?

 

[skyQuake]

Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.


EDIT: Im looking at the depth now 40k at 3.34 got MOBBED in about 10 mins... There was 80k at 3.35 about 5 mins again and now only 60k.. if this continues I would suggest AUT will be atleast at 3.40 by the end of the day... massive result if so.. congrats to the guys who held and congrats to the buyers too. You gotta have faith in a stock with awesome fundamentals and one that keeps giving us great results.

EDITv2: Yep... as I said the just hit another 52w high... here come the profit takers though.

Highs will be at the close imo

 

[alexc2005]

wow 3.42

full steam ahead?

Hard to know whether to stay for the long haul or take profits.

Could have made a fortune riding the ups and downs of this share.

I myself am in it for the long run, bring on $10.

EDIT 3.43

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Highs will be at the close imo

Im tending to agree... looking at the depth though a finish of around $3.42 would be impressive and I would love to see it finish there in one day... especially on no news apart from the already known stuff. AUT deserves a roll on realistically and aren't we due for another report this week?

 

[yma]

People with big capital gain this FY will likely to hold after 30th of June, good report with good target price and also the market is just getting better, in terms of resistance and support, if it get over the 52 high today then i think good day is comming. I am holing.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

wow 3.42

full steam ahead?

Hard to know whether to stay for the long haul or take profits.

Could have made a fortune riding the ups and downs of this share.

I myself am in it for the long run, bring on $10.

EDIT 3.43

I dont know how long you've been in this stock Alex, I haven't been in as long as many but enough to know if you buy at 80c you don't sell at $1.24. Ill give you the tip!! haha. Since getting massively back in at $1.60 I've learnt if your patient with this baby it will reward you all the way to the bank. Obviously do what you gotta do but man, seriously hit the SELL button with much caution!!

If you need money desperately.... this would be the only way I'd sell. Cheers. PS: Ill never get back that 36c of gains I missed out on .

 

[alexc2005]

I dont know how long you've been in this stock Alex, I haven't been in as long as many but enough to know if you buy at 80c you don't sell at $1.24. Ill give you the tip!! haha. Since getting massively back in at $1.60 I've learnt if your patient with this baby it will reward you all the way to the bank. Obviously do what you gotta do but man, seriously hit the SELL button with much caution!!

If you need money desperately.... this would be the only way I'd sell. Cheers. PS: Ill never get back that 36c of gains I missed out on .

I'm only new to this stock and sharetrading in generall (well, on my own anyway)

My average price of my parcel is 2.69, so i was a bit late to the game.

But, better late than never!

Definitely holding for the long term, AUT is going places, its pretty easy to see that

 

[Flipper]

I'm only new to this stock and sharetrading in generall (well, on my own anyway)

My average price of my parcel is 2.69, so i was a bit late to the game.

But, better late than never!

Definitely holding for the long term, AUT is going places, its pretty easy to see that

Patience is definitely a virtue. Been holding this baby since May of last year. Initially bought in at about 74 cents and topped up a bit along the way. My CGT date was a few days ago so locking in some profits for now but definitely looking for a re-entry price for the long term. Thank you to Condog, Assassin, Esteon, Stajii and everyone else for all the information you guys posted here about AUT. It has been an extremely interesting (and profitable) learning curve.

 

[estseon]

Patience is definitely a virtue. Been holding this baby since May of last year. Initially bought in at about 74 cents and topped up a bit along the way. My CGT date was a few days ago so locking in some profits for now but definitely looking for a re-entry price for the long term. Thank you to Condog, Assassin, Esteon, Stajii and everyone else for all the information you guys posted here about AUT. It has been an extremely interesting (and profitable) learning curve.

Never be shy to take a profit and never mourn the extra profit that you could have made. Always deal within your comfort zone. Well done flipper. There'll always be another opportunity.

My original holding (about 60%) cost me 42c and the rest, bought out of ADI proceeds, about 83c. I intend to continue to hold because I see AUT as relatively low risk but having the potential to multiply still even at this level. AUT SP is certainly capable of back-pedalling, we've seen that over the last month or so, but when the tide turns it can move at a significant pace. For a company with over 400m shares in issue, volume has been relatively small for such a significant hike in price. That suggests that a lot of the shares are tightly held, for the time being at least. Good luck all whatever you decide.