CPU - Computershare Limited

[skc]

I just couldn't help myself today and moved my buy order up to $9.59 in the early arvo and got filled ...CPU is now my single largest holding making up 11.8% of my total portfolio, today's entry is also my largest ever ($) buy, so a real punt for me..have to say im very confident the SP will rally from here, CPU just never goes sideways for long.

The recent fall in profit was attributed to a lack of activity in global markets and now we are seeing increased activity...still a long way to go to get back to the big volumes of the last bull but eventually it will come.

CPU is a must have portfolio stock for me, a core holding so i just couldn't pass up this chance to re-enter for my 4th time in 4 years....i expect my 100% success rate with CPU to continue, im very hopeful of being out of this trade before May...i have a very high confidence level with this stock.

Why the confidence? Would you show some valuation? Or technical analysis?

Here's a piece from the business spectator on CPU...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-Crosby-pd20110210-DXDQ6?OpenDocument&src=spb

 

[So_Cynical]

Here's a piece from the business spectator on CPU...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-Crosby-pd20110210-DXDQ6?OpenDocument&src=spb

Thanks for the link...it was an interesting read, CPU really is a complex business...i liked the bit about running out of world.

Why the confidence? Would you show some valuation? Or technical analysis?

I used the word confidence because i really do have confidence in my ability to recognise a trading opportunity in CPU..this is my 4th buy over the last 4 years, ill bang up a chart to show you what i mean...chart shows that i have brought into 3 of the last 8 substantial bottoms (ignoring latest buy) so how can i not have confidence?, every time i put money into CPU i make money.

I would of brought the last bottom to but i was fully invested...and as usual the CPU SP didn't stand still for long, as you may have figured out by now im not one for detailed valuations or TA, im a punter and im very happy to jump onto CPU at the price i did.

My success in CPU was really the guts/genesis of my new trading plan..CPU was the first stock i successfully averaged down into and the first stock i ever left profit in...in fact im still holding the profit from my last trade in Feb/Mar 09.
~

 

[skc]

Thanks for the link...it was an interesting read, CPU really is a complex business...i liked the bit about running out of world.

I used the word confidence because i really do have confidence in my ability to recognise a trading opportunity in CPU..this is my 4th buy over the last 4 years, ill bang up a chart to show you what i mean...chart shows that i have brought into 3 of the last 8 substantial bottoms (ignoring latest buy) so how can i not have confidence?, every time i put money into CPU i make money.

I think CPU is looking not too great fundamentally or technically. But who knows. Good luck with the punt.

 

[ChaoSI]

just straight from Comsec

"Computershare Limited (ASX:CPU) has agreed to purchase Servizio Titoli SpA from the London Stock
Exchange Group PLC. The acquisition is expected to complete in mid May following satisfaction of various
formal conditions, including finalisation of audited accounts for the year to 31 March 2011. The
transaction values the Servizio Titoli business at 30 million Euros plus an amount of up to 2.4 million Euros
for the net cash balance as at completion.

 

[So_Cynical]

just straight from Comsec

"Computershare Limited (ASX:CPU) has agreed to purchase Servizio Titoli SpA from the London Stock
Exchange Group PLC. The acquisition is expected to complete in mid May following satisfaction of various
formal conditions, including finalisation of audited accounts for the year to 31 March 2011. The
transaction values the Servizio Titoli business at 30 million Euros plus an amount of up to 2.4 million Euros
for the net cash balance as at completion.

The market seemed to like the ann, CPU up a little over 2% today and touching 9.54 intra day...another couple a days or next week and my trade will be in the money.

 

[ChaoSI]

The market seemed to like the ann, CPU up a little over 2% today and touching 9.54 intra day...another couple a days or next week and my trade will be in the money.

hahahaha likewise.. didn't have lots to put in so i'll be in the money in another 20 points ..... but hey ... mid may take over right?

if the gods smile on me then it'll go up .... right ?

 

[ChaoSI]

i've been thinking there seems to be a good amount of uncertainty with this share...

 

[So_Cynical]

i've been thinking there seems to be a good amount of uncertainty with this share...

Its a big complex multi currency business so i think that = uncertainty for some people, the profitability and soundness of the business is by no means uncertain IMO...this stock never goes sideways for long and will break one way or the other at some point in the not to distant future.

 

[ChaoSI]

Its a big complex multi currency business so i think that = uncertainty for some people, the profitability and soundness of the business is by no means uncertain IMO...this stock never goes sideways for long and will break one way or the other at some point in the not to distant future.

hmmm well i'd love it to break upwards of course
fell a bit yesterday....
takeovers are usually a good thing right? for sp i mean...
whether they're being taken over or taking over another company ?

i just wanted somebody's opinion on this...
if i'm looking to hold this until the takeover happens 1 month, but the SP hits my stop point before that do I sell based on the fact that it hit my stop or hold with the view of ignoring everything but the most catastrophic until my desired time period is up ?

 

[So_Cynical]

hmmm well i'd love it to break upwards of course
fell a bit yesterday....
takeovers are usually a good thing right? for sp i mean...
whether they're being taken over or taking over another company ?

i just wanted somebody's opinion on this...
if i'm looking to hold this until the takeover happens 1 month, but the SP hits my stop point before that do I sell based on the fact that it hit my stop or hold with the view of ignoring everything but the most catastrophic until my desired time period is up ?

The CPU chart clearly shows the volatility of this stock, CPU can move up or down 3 or 5% over the course of a typical week and sometimes twice that range over a month or so...a bit of a look over the CPU announcements over the last 4/5 years shows that CPU has been actively growing the business by acquisition...small take overs are pretty much irrelevant to the SP.

Selling at stop points (a certain price) is an essential part of the discipline of trend following so if your not "trend following" then selling at a stop point in a stock like CPU could very well leave you looking a little silly in a few weeks/months time....perhaps you need to have a bit of a think about why you have a stop point? what are you wanting to achieve with a stop etc.

 

[ChaoSI]

The CPU chart clearly shows the volatility of this stock, CPU can move up or down 3 or 5% over the course of a typical week and sometimes twice that range over a month or so...a bit of a look over the CPU announcements over the last 4/5 years shows that CPU has been actively growing the business by acquisition...small take overs are pretty much irrelevant to the SP.

Selling at stop points (a certain price) is an essential part of the discipline of trend following so if your not "trend following" then selling at a stop point in a stock like CPU could very well leave you looking a little silly in a few weeks/months time....perhaps you need to have a bit of a think about why you have a stop point? what are you wanting to achieve with a stop etc.

hmmm i think i see what you're getting at... so basically in this case i'm buying based on the takeover (which i've been informed probably won't do much at all .... sigh*) so really i shouldn't bother with a stop point seing as i'm waiting for the takeover to resolve with the belief that it will inrease the SP.
so because of the reasonsing behind the "buy" a stop point in this instance is .. a little silly (unless of course it goes down like lead boots) yeah ?

 

[ChaoSI]

so this jsut came out..
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110428/pdf/01174531.pdf


can somebody explain to me what
"The acquisition is
expected to be management earnings per share accretive for Computershare"
means?

 

[So_Cynical]

so this jsut came out..
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110428/pdf/01174531.pdf


can somebody explain to me what
"The acquisition is
expected to be management earnings per share accretive for Computershare"
means?

CPU has brought a biggish shareowner services business in the US.

http://corporate.computershare.com/...reowner Services acquisition presentation.pdf

Acquisition is Computershare's only avenue to grow the business...this purchase is a good one due to the substantial savings that will be made via synergies between the two businesses, 70 million worth flagged over the first three years.

The market certainly liked the ann with the SP up more than 8.5% intra day and 7.7% up at the close....a couple of green days ahead could see the SP break $10. :dunno: and get me out of my 4th CPU trade in 4 years with a 100% winning record...wouldn't that be nice. :cowboy:

 

[ChaoSI]

i'd just be happy to close my 2nd successful trade....

okay this is a huge assumption but if this "anti-trust" thing from america gets approved, then that's a good thing right? basically means that they're given the go ahead to take over this company is that it?

 

[skc]

i'd just be happy to close my 2nd successful trade....

okay this is a huge assumption but if this "anti-trust" thing from america gets approved, then that's a good thing right? basically means that they're given the go ahead to take over this company is that it?

Yes. Sometimes there may be conditions attached - like they need to sell some of the operations...

I am surprised at the strength of CPU despite the acquisition - they managed to turn the strong $A (which really should kill their earnings in $A terms) into a strength by buying assets on the cheap. A very nice stroke imo.

 

[ChaoSI]

okay i realise that these questions should stay in the beginners lounge but i thought it'd be a bit out of context.

with regard to the Sp sitting on 9.68 9.69 area...
would this be due to people waiting for the outcome of the antitrust thing? and to see if there are any conditions on it? or whether it goes through at all ?

 

[So_Cynical]

okay i realise that these questions should stay in the beginners lounge but i thought it'd be a bit out of context.

with regard to the Sp sitting on 9.68 9.69 area...
would this be due to people waiting for the outcome of the antitrust thing? and to see if there are any conditions on it? or whether it goes through at all ?

The anti trust thing and other approvals will take weeks if not months to work through....the CPU share price gyrations are really a bit of a mystery, sure you can often say the price has fallen due to XYZ or the price had risen due to ABC but really the CPU share price seems to have a bit of a 'mind of its own'

As SKC said, often the CPU SP would be seen to have responded to the USD/AUD exchange rate due to the substantial USD earnings CPU has....however this time its different, for now anyway....all i know is buying into substantial CPU share price weakness is always a good thing, always has been for me.

 

[ChaoSI]

The anti trust thing and other approvals will take weeks if not months to work through....the CPU share price gyrations are really a bit of a mystery, sure you can often say the price has fallen due to XYZ or the price had risen due to ABC but really the CPU share price seems to have a bit of a 'mind of its own'

As SKC said, often the CPU SP would be seen to have responded to the USD/AUD exchange rate due to the substantial USD earnings CPU has....however this time its different, for now anyway....all i know is buying into substantial CPU share price weakness is always a good thing, always has been for me.

thanks,
noted *with caution* of course

 

[So_Cynical]

(14th-February-2011) I just couldn't help myself today and moved my buy order up to $9.59 in the early arvo and got filled ...CPU is now my single largest holding making up 11.8% of my total portfolio, today's entry is also my largest ever ($) buy, so a real punt for me..have to say im very confident the SP will rally from here, CPU just never goes sideways for long.

The recent fall in profit was attributed to a lack of activity in global markets and now we are seeing increased activity...still a long way to go to get back to the big volumes of the last bull but eventually it will come.

CPU is a must have portfolio stock for me, a core holding so i just couldn't pass up this chance to re-enter for my 4th time in 4 years....i expect my 100% success rate with CPU to continue, im very hopeful of being out of this trade before May...i have a very high confidence level with this stock.

Well so much for that trade being completed by May...perhaps May 2012. :dunno:

Anyway i brought some more CPU on Friday @ $8.36 just had to take advantage of the continued SP weakness...i wouldn't be much of a 'low cost average' portfolio builder if i didn't take advantage of substantial SP weakness when it comes along.

I'm fully invested now so its time to just relax, do some gaming and wait for the inevitable rally....the fundamentals for CPU remain the same.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I'm fully invested now so its time to just relax, do some gaming and wait for the inevitable rally....the fundamentals for CPU remain the same.

Nice to see the forum investors with plenty of time up their sleeves. Oh and the probable 28c partially franked dividend per year, is that like about less than 3% return at current share price?