AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
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An obvious 3 months of consolidation. The good thing is AUT hasnt stopped adding value, and with the 4 rigs on site the value adding has actually accellerated. I believe that when a company like this consolidates for as long as it just has, its building value the whole time, and the longer the time frame that value keeps getting added , the more pent up value on offer. 3 months of consolidation with 4 rigs drilling away = good value to me.
Shares can improve in value by dropping in price, or tracking sideways over time as value is added. AUT has done both its pulled back 10-15% and its tracked sideways for 3 months, which presents imo a new buying opportunity, which punters are starting to recognize again now.
The real value will be realized im in the comming two months as those fraccing results start rolling in.
Could anyone tell me what LT XT stands for in relation to the what is shown on comsec trades for the day.
This is what is showing this morning
08:08:24 AM 2.890 20,000 57,800.00 LT XT
07:25:29 AM 2.897 20,000 57,940.00 LT XT
07:25:17 AM 2.888 20,000 57,760.00 LT XT
This is what is showing this morning
08:08:24 AM 2.890 20,000 57,800.00 LT XT
07:25:29 AM 2.897 20,000 57,940.00 LT XT
07:25:17 AM 2.888 20,000 57,760.00 LT XT
From march 8th Preso
5000 boepd post royalties by end of 2011.
$20K maintainance per well. Average interest of AUT approx 24% or so.
5000*340=1.7M boe * $100perboe $170M
80wells at $20K * 12 * 24% = $4.6M
Post royalty rev approx $165M
PE of 10 = $1.65 Billion
PE of 15 = $2.47 Billion
PE of 20 = $3.30 Billion
PE of 25 = $4.1 Billion
current mcap approx 380,000,000 * 2.90 = $1.1B
Sector average PE is genrally north of 20, its presently 24.
$4.1B over 380M = $10.79 per share.
Note this does not mean it will come true but its easy to see the potential on offer.
Im using $8+ as my projection. Which again doesnt mena it will be met, but thats my basic valuation using several methods.
5000 boepd post royalties by end of 2011.
$20K maintainance per well. Average interest of AUT approx 24% or so.
5000*340=1.7M boe * $100perboe $170M
80wells at $20K * 12 * 24% = $4.6M
Post royalty rev approx $165M
PE of 10 = $1.65 Billion
PE of 15 = $2.47 Billion
PE of 20 = $3.30 Billion
PE of 25 = $4.1 Billion
current mcap approx 380,000,000 * 2.90 = $1.1B
Sector average PE is genrally north of 20, its presently 24.
$4.1B over 380M = $10.79 per share.
Note this does not mean it will come true but its easy to see the potential on offer.
Im using $8+ as my projection. Which again doesnt mena it will be met, but thats my basic valuation using several methods.
With regards to your above calcs, you seem to be working off revenue (less maintenance costs) for your price earnings valuation, don't you need to work from NPAT?
I certainly understand you're trying trying to demonstrate how undervalued AUT is but I think this valuation would be inherently inflated by working from revenue figures alone?
I certainly agree with your end of year valuation towards $8, I don't personally value it that high, closer to $6-7 and as a consequence I entered the stock today. But I'm new to this and you're... we'll you're not
.I reckon that the big boost to value will start in the latter part of 2012 once they have finished drilling to secure leases and can then focus on drilling to prove up the chalk reserves and smaller spacings. Perhaps multi-sets of twin laterals (1 in the EFS and 1 above in the Austin Chalk) from the same pad, reducing well cost.
Weston is in the Austin chalk and it was only 3,000ft. It was drilled by TCEI before Hilcorp and was one of the Hilcorp farm out completions.
Weston is in the Austin chalk and it was only 3,000ft. It was drilled by TCEI before Hilcorp and was one of the Hilcorp farm out completions.
With regards to your above calcs, you seem to be working off revenue (less maintenance costs) for your price earnings valuation, don't you need to work from NPAT?
I certainly understand you're trying trying to demonstrate how undervalued AUT is but I think this valuation would be inherently inflated by working from revenue figures alone?
I certainly agree with your end of year valuation towards $8, I don't personally value it that high, closer to $6-7 and as a consequence I entered the stock today. But I'm new to this and you're... we'll you're not
Yes your right, but the difference between dead set accurate valuations which take time to explain and show numbers, and these rough nut calcs is not that big.
Its sometimes best to just give rough calcs for estimates. $8 approx.
Esteon it will be extremely interesting when they choose to first run a lateral in the chalks from a previously EFS well, to see the numbers and cost, how they stack up. Weston certainly indicates some possible good economics, but its a while off for now. Hopefully frac costs will come down between now and then which would really help the NPV per well. Certainly my opinion on the back of weston is it will be very economic, but i guess we will have to wait see.
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Where'd you find this information out dog?
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Try this link
http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/c...dwGGgpl14K8TP1n7sZ0!-653203620?pager.offset=0
then when it comes up, press refresh and it will let you in.
Then in County enter Karnes
Under Operator enter Hilcorp
Then press submit
You should get two pages of results, with the most recent at the bottom of the second page. Very soon it will go to 3 pages.
You can search this database for al sorts of data. Lots of what agent produces comes from this database. It takes a while to learn your way round as thier is lots of precise info needed to find the information your after.
http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/c...dwGGgpl14K8TP1n7sZ0!-653203620?pager.offset=0
then when it comes up, press refresh and it will let you in.
Then in County enter Karnes
Under Operator enter Hilcorp
Then press submit
You should get two pages of results, with the most recent at the bottom of the second page. Very soon it will go to 3 pages.
You can search this database for al sorts of data. Lots of what agent produces comes from this database. It takes a while to learn your way round as thier is lots of precise info needed to find the information your after.
Hey switchmullet, i find it funny that people like impact321 at HC get all high and mighty about exactly how a valuation has to be done. Makes me laugh, as theres infinite ways to value a company. The thing is many come out with similar values. And its best imo to use several different methods and use the consensus estimate of several methods.
Id much rather be roughly right then precisely wrong. thats why i use several methods and just go with the estimate thats average accross all the methods used.
And i know many hardcore fundamentalists argue you cant use PE. But imo they just dont know how to use it. Its used as a guide and its a cross between projected cash flow and PE model. Especially in the case of AUT, where most earnings are hidden in well repayments. So you have to extrapolate your earnings from your well flow data and your condensate and gas sales prices.
Id much rather be roughly right then precisely wrong. thats why i use several methods and just go with the estimate thats average accross all the methods used.
And i know many hardcore fundamentalists argue you cant use PE. But imo they just dont know how to use it. Its used as a guide and its a cross between projected cash flow and PE model. Especially in the case of AUT, where most earnings are hidden in well repayments. So you have to extrapolate your earnings from your well flow data and your condensate and gas sales prices.
Try this site
http://www.aplforum.com/wellmaps/?co=EME
This gives you all wells and current status - for field use Sugarcane block b
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You know you can get the production history by clicking on the well name - very handy
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Sorry for more simple questions, but, does Hilcorp drill for anyone else in the area of just for AUT? And do they frac the wells too or does AUT have someone else do that? Cheers guys. Another bigish drop today too
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Sorry for more simple questions, but, does Hilcorp drill for anyone else in the area of just for AUT? And do they frac the wells too or does AUT have someone else do that? Cheers guys. Another bigish drop today too
Great question Bright Green. Quite simply its dropping because there is currently no interest among buyers. Its no longer the flavour of the month... It doesn't mine rare earths and they don't have a potash deposit...
Im still a believer but we need something big to turn this around, we definitely see the value but do others outside this forum see it???
One for you CONDOG. IS TXN the next AUT in terms of SP run?
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Had a rather decent day on the TSX, up about 2.76% with a single trade of 1,000,000 shares going through. Hopefully a run is in order!
TXN is beginning to look like the next AUT on today sannouncment, but we will have to wait see the 30 day declines on teal.
AUT will go hard again imo once the frac results start rolling in.
What NSAI has failed to take into account is a 4 fold increase from halving the spacing and doubling the EUR, due to hitting the original target, the Austin Chalks at some point.
Dont you worry theres still imo multiples ahead. Right now i think AUT has been way way over sold.
AUT will go hard again imo once the frac results start rolling in.
What NSAI has failed to take into account is a 4 fold increase from halving the spacing and doubling the EUR, due to hitting the original target, the Austin Chalks at some point.
Dont you worry theres still imo multiples ahead. Right now i think AUT has been way way over sold.
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TD Securities has a 12 month target of$3.50 for AUT/AEF. This was announced today.
