AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[zzaaxxss3401]

Hey guys by the way aurora has a new look website and in fact it's far better than before. Bit if generic info on it.

When do you think it changed (if it did)? It looks like the same website I've seen before, and the individual webpage information, indicates they were last modified on the 1st March, 2011... am I missing something?

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

When do you think it changed (if it did)? It looks like the same website I've seen before, and the individual webpage information, indicates they were last modified on the 1st March, 2011... am I missing something?

I haven't seen it in a few months. New to me anyways. Good share traction today. Hopefully we can gain on the next round of production results. $105 oil is looking good.

 

[prgudula]

2011 Financial Report

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1507&EID=74158658

Annual Information Form

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1508&EID=20549813

 

[dashwood]

let's hope we get a revival otherwise headed for another sign of what management refers to in quotes as the "company’s share ownership has become increasingly
international". Seems a euphormism for ...cheap buys by those trading on tsx!

 

[traderclaude]

I thought there would be a kick along today with Obama announcing the US will focus on domestic gas more closely.

They sell to the US right?

Pretty tempting to throw some money at it.

 

[dashwood]

Remembering the 28th Feb saw the tsx listing take the time to look at the share price graph! Perhaps a sound lesson in the perils of dual listing. We live and learn roll on end of the financial. Wonder what the ownership stats are looking like now.

 

[skyQuake]

Remembering the 28th Feb saw the tsx listing take the time to look at the share price graph! Perhaps a sound lesson in the perils of dual listing. We live and learn roll on end of the financial. Wonder what the ownership stats are looking like now.

About 10~15% is owned in Canada, its also been Canadian BUYING that has helped support the price after the listing.

 

[dashwood]

We must be talking about different stocks it previously needed no 'support'

 

[Magic Man]

People seem to be getting a bit toey about AUT.. Condog can you remind us of you own valuation for this stock in the next 12 months. Production report should be due out next week!

 

[condog]

Id prefer to just say they are drilling and fraccing away with 4 rigs on site. With a target of 60 wells in 2011, thats 5 wells per month in the best part of the entire eagleford at approx 25% NRI.

On a net basis its more then one net well per month, with a cash flow of approx $8-12 net p.a. per net well. Thats an increased cash flow of $96M to $144M in this 12 months. On a PE of 10 thats an mcap increase of 900M to 1.4B.

These figures may or may not eventuate, do your own research and calculations.

I have a hard time seeing it under $8 in Dec 2011 if targets are met and exceeded like last year. But i could be entirely wrong. LAst year they exceeded my expectations.

 

[Magic Man]

Id prefer to just say they are drilling and fraccing away with 4 rigs on site. With a target of 60 wells in 2011, thats 5 wells per month in the best part of the entire eagleford at approx 25% NRI.

On a net basis its more then one net well per month, with a cash flow of approx $8-12 net p.a. per net well. Thats an increased cash flow of $96M to $144M in this 12 months. On a PE of 10 thats an mcap increase of 900M to 1.4B.

These figures may or may not eventuate, do your own research and calculations.

I have a hard time seeing it under $8 in Dec 2011 if targets are met and exceeded like last year. But i could be entirely wrong. LAst year they exceeded my expectations.

I find it interesting how the oil price has effectively gone up 25 percent the past 6 weeks and AUT has gone nowhere and interest has been declining.. I believe the true boost for the share price will be when companies like AUT and TXN release there next round of profits and guidance. Its very interesting to see company SPs like Oil search and Santos go upward and yet AUT is almost showing more downside then up.. Great couple of days for TXN, comment in the TXN forum but do you see the stock holding these levels?

 

[skyQuake]

We must be talking about different stocks it previously needed no 'support'

meant listing as in listing in Canada, it had a bit of a run then fell over with japan. All the while au was selling it down, but there was good buying in Canada

Would like to see a proper break from this $3 range

 

[bbker]

Gotta laugh at the bot manipulation with the single digit trades going on followed by the 5 figure ones.

I watch a fair few small cap stocks and I've only noticed it here and with SEA.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Gotta laugh at the bot manipulation with the single digit trades going on followed by the 5 figure ones.

I watch a fair few small cap stocks and I've only noticed it here and with SEA.

I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..

 

[trader8888]

I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..

BGG

Its called "Algorithmic trading" and is totaly legel (at the moment anyway)

Link for anyone who is interested - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

On to AUT - Lets an operations update already!! looks as though money moving out and into TXN lol i no some off mine will at the end of this month.

 

[bbker]

Hey BGG,
I couldn't find your image but I have been monitoring the 2 oilers for the last couple of months each day and that's the obvious conclusion.

I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..

 

[TabJockey]

Bloody hell the AUT people get restless when new highs are not being made every week!

 

[Sdajii]

I find it interesting how the oil price has effectively gone up 25 percent the past 6 weeks and AUT has gone nowhere and interest has been declining.. I believe the true boost for the share price will be when companies like AUT and TXN release there next round of profits and guidance. Its very interesting to see company SPs like Oil search and Santos go upward and yet AUT is almost showing more downside then up.. Great couple of days for TXN, comment in the TXN forum but do you see the stock holding these levels?

I find this puzzling too, it's amazing over the last couple of weeks, hearing people talking about oil going "down to near $100 per barrel" Very recently, $100 per barrel seemed like something from a distant hypothetic future. But I think TabJockey hit the nail on the head. We're so used to AUT smashing out new highs every week or two that when it doesn't for a while (when it acts like most companies do most of the time) we think something is strange. I'm not in a hurry to sell, I see value being added, I think we'll have a good run at some stage over the next month or two or three unless we get some massive global disaster or economic collapse happening, and the only reason this period of stability bothers me is that I don't have enough money to top up at the moment. If I manage to get some funds together before it moves again I'll be glad it sat still for a while.

 

[estseon]

Remember that it's about 12 months (the magic CGT 12 months) since Hilcorp started to get things together. There could be many investors who bought around 40c as a punt on Hilcorp succeeding and they may be top slicing. The brokers last put up targets of $4.50 and AUT has previously smashed through every target fairly quickly.

 

[condog]

Remember that it's about 12 months (the magic CGT 12 months) since Hilcorp started to get things together. There could be many investors who bought around 40c as a punt on Hilcorp succeeding and they may be top slicing. The brokers last put up targets of $4.50 and AUT has previously smashed through every target fairly quickly.

The sales going through that are holding the sp down are pretty small volumes, and there has been a long absence of operational updates. Im not concerned at all.

60 wells in 2011 will drive value. I do however want to see some cash entering the balance sheet from those earlier wells.