AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

This is why i was saying in here TXN was too early since about 4 months ago. I also had similar view for the last 12 months that AUT would significantly outperform EKA.



As a result of yesterdays 60 day flow TXN will now grow. now i think things are changing. . Whilst i think AUT still has very good growth, particularly in the next month or two, i also think if TXN now plays its cards right they will no experience significant growth, on the back of thier second horizontal and the verticle, lifting its boepd and its reserves.

For me the make or break whehther i will continue to hold will be the second horizontal well 60 day results.

 

[link128]

condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?

 

[prgudula]

condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?

it is from google finance

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...XN;ASX:AZZ&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=ASX:AUT&&fct=big

 

[kennyhunter]

I have always looked at the pre trade bids and thought that if you have the highest or lowest bid you would possibly be first to trade ( at least I thought that was the logic others were using), ie the average intersection of price will be what you pay or receive irrelevent of the price shown. So I would not call them bodgie bids in that respect but yet another cunning plan that seems brilliant in someone elses head?

For those really interested ASX provide some formulae for determining the pre and post trade price. Link.

Apparently there is method to the seeming madness. I must admit it confused me for a looong time - I always thought it a glitch until someone pointed this out to me.

Hope that helps someone.

 

[condog]

condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?

Its just comsec

And you compare

 

[gsnz1]

Hi Condog/OGG
Do you think that AUT will follow their acquisition path entirely within Hilcorp operated acreage? I understand they have a good relationship with Hilcorp and so far it has been an extremely succesful partnership so I can see the benefits of sticking to a winning formula in a proven area. I ask this as the following article reports about Gonzalez County well results and I believe Hilcorp have earned 85% of Lucas acreage. Would the results so far warrant AUT taking a stake in this acreage?

A horizontal well targeting the Eagle Ford formation and operated by Hilcorp Energy Company is flowing oil.

Upstream staff 11 February 2011 22:57 GMT

The Hagen EF No.1H well in Gonzalez County, Texas, has tested as much as 350 barrels per day of light sweet crude during the flow-back period, said US independent Lucas Energy, a 15% stakeholder in the well.

The well has produced more than 2600 barrels of crude oil to date, Lucas said.

It is still flowing back load water with the oil and will be put on artificial lift soon, the company said.


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article244732.ece

Cheers

 

[condog]

Hi Condog/OGG
Do you think that AUT will follow their acquisition path entirely within Hilcorp operated acreage? I understand they have a good relationship with Hilcorp and so far it has been an extremely succesful partnership so I can see the benefits of sticking to a winning formula in a proven area. I ask this as the following article reports about Gonzalez County well results and I believe Hilcorp have earned 85% of Lucas acreage. Would the results so far warrant AUT taking a stake in this acreage?

Cheers

I think certainly they have a preference for hilcorp, but it wont limit them imo to buying acerages where hilcorp is operator. I think theyed have a clear preference to lease ascerage where there is no operator then farm in hilcorp.

Given the "relative weakness" of EKA to some acerage prices it must be looking like a possible purchase. I ran the numbers about two months ago and it was a tad too expensive, but given time and rising aquisition costs elsewhere it really would have to be a consideration. They could to a scrip deal and it wouldnt cost us much at all. .

 

[Assasin]

For those wanting to do a bit more research.

http://eaglefordinfo.blogspot.com/2010/10/collection-of-eagle-ford-maps-from.html

Apologies if been posted before.

Its a great read put together by a unhappy land owner in the DeWitt county alerting landowners of the operating tactics of the oil companies but offers a great insight into the entire region and the best maps i've seen.
Cheers

Holding: AUT, SEA, EKA, TXN, MHM, XAM, WHN

 

[prgudula]

A new article has been posted on our website. To view the full article, please click on the link below.


Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research


http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1483&EID=45577481

 

[Magic Man]

Not a bad day for AUT, however the sellers are up and the buying is down.. I think we need an anouncemnt shortly to reignite some interest. What a dog of a day for SEA and TXN.. The market showing niether much love.

 

[condog]

imo there is a cyclic buy on the banks happening , which should last a few wekks, before energy stocks come back into favour. We have plenty of news due in coming weeks , i wouldnt fret.

 

[condog]

A new article has been posted on our website. To view the full article, please click on the link below.


Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research


http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1483&EID=45577481

Great find Pramond, cheers . $3.45 target

 

[condog]

A very interesting slide as part of the Combank preso.

Upside with bullish scenario , valuation of $4.75



Got to be thinking after feb reserves review, C bank and Euroz will be upgrading valuations significantly.




Plenty of reserves to be converted to 2P when you look at it this way. The Longhorn and Ipenema wells should surely increase these a lot in feb , then Excellsior later this year.

If the NPAT projections by CBA are to believed imagine the mcap on reasonbale PE ratios.
A PE of just 8 would give us a $4.8B mcap in 2017 . That could approximate to an sp of approx, $12.




Also the cash flow modeling shows some rediculously strong growth from say late 2011 onwards as the cashflow really begins to kick in and bring fundamental investors into the fold.

 

[Magic Man]

Hey condog very good information there. Was just reading a post on the hawkleys forum. Check it out and give us your thoughts on wronguns post.. Is hawkleys similiar to aut and could it be a 10 baggggger??

 

[condog]

Entire following Post by esteon:

reserves valuation is published and that should be next week, or the Monday following at the latest.

AUT volume has been pretty small for days even though the price has danced around a bit. Some bought at over 10c more than the closing price. If there was anything negative it might well have leaked out a bit by now. NSAI is probably printing off about 150 incomprehensible spreadsheets as last time - and that's just for AUT.

It's possible that the brokers will be given an early view so that they can get their revised notes and targets out reasonably soon after.

Not long to wait, now. A waste of time and energy trying to speculate on amended assumptions. There are a number of changes that would compound up to produce something quite eye-watering but we can't guess what they will take on board for this valuation. Could see NPV10 for 3p of $2bn (including new land) but who knows? That would take us past the CBA target in a flash. Probably take us through the GMP Securities target of $3.85 also.

What did Euroz say?

"Additionally, strength of the production data bodes well for the revised reserves statement in the Mar Q."

They may be talking about reduced declines.

"Furthermore, tighter development well spacing (vertically and horizontally), continued out-performance vs. the Netherland&Sewell type-curve, and higher EURs encourages
us to see significant upside to 3P reserves can be realized over the next few years."

They are trying hard to suggest reduced declines assumptions and denser drilling. 60 acre spacing would be a 33% increase right away and AUT has mentioned the '60' figure.(page 17 of the 2 Feb 2011 presentation)

"We highlight the leverage AUT offers to rising oil prices; applying US$120/bbl long-term underpins a $4.40/sh valuation"

Can't see NSAI using a $120/bbl assumption but they are trying hard to flag $4+ target and to find an excuse to do so.

AUT also flagged that 10 - 15% of the net acreage might not have been valued in the first report (page 17 of the 2 Feb 2011 presentation).

AUT also flagged on that magic page 17 that the producing wells have a higher condensate ratio than assumed.


All in all it would be a great disappointment if little or nothing of these bullish hints came to be reflected in the reserves report. AUT was presenting that material at a time when NSAI was doing its sums and the management must have had a feel for what NSAI might take into account for its amended assumptions. There must have been discussions between the management and NSAI and the management will have asked what might be reasonably said in the presentation.

You could easily see 120% (oil price), 130% (spacing), 110% (uncounted acreage), 125% (?reduced declines?), 125% (?increased condensate ratio?).

Put that lot together (compound) and you get a breath-taking 268%. Apply that to the figure on page 11 of the presentation for NPV10, $1.374bn, and you get $3.68bn, or $8.85 per share (USD).

I doubt very much that they will publish such a massive figure this time around - spacing might have to wait and declines & condensate ratio might be reduced. But, run with 115% (oil price), 110% (uncounted), 115% (declines) & 115% (condensate ratio) and you get 167%: $2.3bn: $5.53/share.

I can't speculate on what they have run with but they don't need to upgrade the assumptions by all that much to result in a significant upward valuation.

.

 

[condog]

New well app called Davenport Unit

 

[Agentm]

New well app called Davenport Unit

its a well using the same site as the jordan pad, not 100% certain but doesnt look like a dual lateral but more like 2 wells off one pad.

those cinco wells are going in one after the other.. making my good friends in texas nice and rich..

 

[rockhound308]

Results from Turnbull 5 and 6 will be interesting to watch.
Drilled ~parallel from the same pad with around 700' separation and 5000' lateral would give 80 acres. Communication between the wells or lack of it will be quite telling.
I guess that info is unlikely to be released but some hints might come in the form completion difficulties and or the good-old tight choke

 

[condog]

Results from Turnbull 5 and 6 will be interesting to watch.
Drilled ~parallel from the same pad with around 700' separation and 5000' lateral would give 80 acres. Communication between the wells or lack of it will be quite telling.
I guess that info is unlikely to be released but some hints might come in the form completion difficulties and or the good-old tight choke

They will let us know, if thier is communication as that would be significant news. And your right it will be very interesting. Possibly to late to take into account for this reserves statement, but if they pull it off it may begin to sure up an increased EUR and tighter spacing for the reserves statement in late 2011.

Obviously we dont want them doing too many too close right, now, as the key aim right now is to drill and meet leasing obligations. But eventually when they have both enough time and capital, it will be very important to begin to experiment with closer well spacing, multiple wells on single pads etc. Can they get2, 3, 4 off the one pad, possibly 5??



Answer: who knows thats what has to be tried. But im sure we have som drilling to secure acerages first.
If they can get multiple wells off the one pad that will help with drill times and NPV of wells, immensley

I dont think theres any doubt they can get two off the one pad, but i wouldnt at all be surprised to see 3 or 4 attempted. Makes for easy and cheaper scaling if they can.

 

[condog]

Pretty easy to see that all the unconventional US oilers have suffered some share price pressure in recent weeks that corresponds with the oil price weakness. Oil seems to be steadily rising again now. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see significant strength again soon.