Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Roulette: odds, chances, myths and fact

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2020hindsight said:
fair enuf m8 - but I won;t be joining you
(I only put that one bet on because the bludy craps table was closed - temporarily / permanently who knows - the casinos prefer to make their money fast at the roulette wheels ;)).

PS 25% of those polled resemble a quarter of the population. (if you get my drift / ghist)
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Have you observed the poker machine crowds on a Saturday night, must be huge money down the hole and I reckon they'd be at it as the planet goes down the gurgler. Then maybe it is so lets throw it away.

cheers explod
 
brty said:
Because things are not the same, and we have no way of calculating all the possible variations, we mistakenly call it random, when it is most likely not.

brty
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Correct, but with some thought and you are into some maths and charting the variations can be worked out sufficiently to beat the house edge as long as you stick to a set of good criteria and rules. To hold the gains you also need to be aware of when a trend/tendancy has changed. On average, having picked the right croupier particular trends last about 40 spins.

cheers brty
 
doogie_goes_off said:
Started my own system once, set it up with cards and 5c pieces - I called it blind martingale after I found out what martingale is, doesn't really work but I wish it did. Had several goes thinking I would take the casino to the cleaners but eventually figured the odds can not be beaten by a betting pattern alone.
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Yep started out similar, thought I would never have to work again, the feeling of having/(thought) th holy grail was wonderful and I did have some good wins for awhile.

cheers doogie-goes-off
 
Wagyu said:
Are you serious? "look for large bets and avoid that result"? be practical champ!
if a dealer sees $1000 on number 34, you think house instructions aren't to spin as far away from that as possible? don't mention table limits.

"the croupier needs to sum up the bets and decisde the worst outcome for the house"? oh please!
as i said, its a quick sum up of the situation. other bets may be added after table ball is spun that change the worst case result. and they are not looking for the best case result, which is impossible on spur pf moment. they are only looking for an obvious bad result.

theres no way to exploit this. other than if your placing big bets, bet late.

And "quadrants"?. the zero section comprises of 17 numbers out of a total of 37 (not 36 as you have quoted). Any knucklehead dealer can say " I'll land the ball in the zero section", it's half the wheel the odds are on his side to start. It takes a pelican like yourself to believe him.
i think you failed high school math? a quadrant is a quarter. since when has a quarter of 37 been 17?

if your maths is poor perhaps your reading not much better? i said there are numbers 1-36. the "0" is the 37th number which gives the house the edgde. without "0" the odds are fair.

And "guarantee"?, the dealer can't guarantee jack-****. If you want a guarantee, go and buy a toaster.
they are highly trained to do this...if they wanted to. above 90% accuracy, which gives them an edge if they try avoid a particular large bet.

My toasters fine thanks.

What happens when your mate works on the "Rapid Roulette" game? (terminal betting on screen with a live dealer). there is no bets for the dealer to look at, nothing! he's just waiting for the ball to drop and then to confirm the winning number in the system.

Never mentioned "rapid roulette" or any casino other than crown. some vegas casino have a "0" and "00", but im simply talking about a standard crown table.


A lot of roulette dealers are self fulfilling wankers, and your mate is not exempt.
i agree he is a bit of a wanker, he supports collingwood. enough said.
Wise up sunshine.
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out of curiosity which school did you attend for math? and have you lived a sheltered life?
 
Roulette deal for sex, cash: witness
A Crown Casino croupier agreed to rig spins on a roulette wheel for a patron in return for money and sex, a court was told yesterday. The Melbourne Magistrates Court was told that the croupier, Mr Demetrios Zagaretos, struck a deal over drinks and dinner with Mr Peter Kyprianou to control where t
The Age 19/08/1999 Cost - $2.20 460 words

If you dont belive it happens, buy the article. I can't be bothered.
 
nathanblack said:
Roulette deal for sex, cash: witness
A Crown Casino croupier agreed to rig spins on a roulette wheel for a patron in return for money and sex, a court was told yesterday. The Melbourne Magistrates Court was told that the croupier, Mr Demetrios Zagaretos, struck a deal over drinks and dinner with Mr Peter Kyprianou to control where t
The Age 19/08/1999 Cost - $2.20 460 words

If you dont belive it happens, buy the article. I can't be bothered.
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I have observed many instances over the years that confirm such behaviour. It also confirms that the dealers control the game. Watch/learn/chart the dealer and you can then get somewhere.


Whilst checking to see if I could retrieve this article I noted a system, "You cant lose" he spruikes. Involves betting red/black but staying fixed to the one number and doubling up. Says you can go 9 spins before hitting the table limit. What a goose, I often see the whole overhead with one colour straight. Overheads show the last 12 to 14 spins.

I wonder if it is the industry who post this rubbish. Have seen such stuff around often. Maybe there is a job with Crown sucking suckers in.

cheers nathanblack
 
Thought I will revive this thead for a while.

I just finished reading Mick Gatto's book and found something interesting in between the lines. He claims to have had a winning roulette system until the casino got a few trained croupies to turn the odds against him, wondering what you guys make of this:

In Australia, underworld hard man Mick Gatto
and his great mate Mario Condello played a
system at Crown Casino where they left out seven
numbers – the top three (1, 2, 3), the bottom
three (34, 35, 36) and zero.
They’d then place $50 on every other number
for an outlay of $1500. If they won they’d pick up
$1800 for a profit of $300. If they lost they’d chase
it for another five spins. They were winning
regularly and increased their stake from $50
a number to up to $400 a number ($2400 profit)
until they were ahead by $200,000.
But Gatto reveals in his book I, Mick Gatto that
they gave it all back when the casino employed
a croupier to spin to a section of the wheel away
from their numbers.
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Im thinking the odds are very good for them, but also the loses would be very heavy and chasing such loses for 5 spins would be very hard to recover even if they did have good streaks to follow, also very interesting about the trained croupies, might hit crown tonight as I have not been for very long and do some wheel watching and for croupie signatures hehe
 
againsthegrain said:
Im thinking the odds are very good for them, but also the loses would be very heavy and chasing such loses for 5 spins would be very hard to recover even if they did have good streaks to follow, also very interesting about the trained croupies, might hit crown tonight as I have not been for very long and do some wheel watching and for croupie signatures hehe
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I don't get it. The odds are against them winning without the croupier having to try and fix the result.

If the wheel is not tampered with and spinned randomly, then by my calculations this is what their long term outcome should be:

They should win on average 30 out of 37 times and lose 7 out of 37 times over the long run.

This means (for the $50 bet on each of the 30 numbers) on average over the long term their winnings will be $9,000 (30 x $300) every 37 spins of the wheel and their losses will be $10,500 (7 X $1,500) every 37 spins of the wheel.

Increasing the bet only increases their losses.

Even the statement about the croupier "directing" the wheel doesn't make sense. Instead of choosing the 7 numbers NOT to bet on from one section of the wheel, they could have chosen 7 numbers evenly distributed around the wheel. It doesn't change the odds, but the croupier would have to be pretty gifted to be able to "direct" accurately to one of those 7 distributed numbers.

Looking at it another way, although their odds of winning are much greater than the odds of losing, the amount they win is much less than what they will lose. They have a 30/37 chance of winning $300 which translates to average take of $243.24 and a 7/37 chance of losing $1,500 which translates to an average loss of $283.78.

Since they claimed to win regularly, then they are defying the laws of probability.
 
Think you know how to place a bet...???

Check out this guy, Billy Walters. He puts on millions just for a Sunday breakfast AND WINS!!!

Very, very interesting 60 minutes doco.

 
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Yea I tried playing it on a few free online roulette websites and everytime I was making profits 0 or one of the 7 would come up, then trying to climb back just as I would make back the loss I would get wiped out again, so using this system I would slowly lose.... mmm maybye they had ALOT of good luck then when the streak ended they blamed the croupie
 
DB008 said:
Think you know how to place a bet...???

Check out this guy, Billy Walters. He puts on millions just for a Sunday breakfast AND WINS!!!

Very, very interesting 60 minutes doco.

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Interesting what he says about stocks. Maybe at the end of the day, we're just dealing with thieves in suits...
 
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Just had a random thought...

If you had to bet on half the wheel (18 numbers), would your chances be any different with the two strategies below?

1) betting on each alternate slot of the wheel (ie. all black, or all red); or
2) betting on a quadrant/sector of the wheel that spreads over 18 numbers
 
Tyler Durden said:
Just had a random thought...

If you had to bet on half the wheel (18 numbers), would your chances be any different with the two strategies below?

1) betting on each alternate slot of the wheel (ie. all black, or all red); or
2) betting on a quadrant/sector of the wheel that spreads over 18 numbers
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Unless the wheel is biased (e.g. a rigged wheel), betting on any group of 18 numbers, no matter where they are located, should have the same odds, 18/37.
 
Tyler Durden said:
Just had a random thought...

If you had to bet on half the wheel (18 numbers), would your chances be any different with the two strategies below?

1) betting on each alternate slot of the wheel (ie. all black, or all red); or
2) betting on a quadrant/sector of the wheel that spreads over 18 numbers
Click to expand...

The odds are the same.
 
bellenuit said:
Unless the wheel is biased (e.g. a rigged wheel), betting on any group of 18 numbers, no matter where they are located, should have the same odds, 18/37.
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+1

Bias via croupier technique may also need consideration.

I met a player once whom recommended a couple of books to me. I never got around to following up on them, but mention them here as they may be of interest to you :

"Beating the Wheel" and "Spin Gold" (if my memory serves me correctly).
 
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