AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[buffalo66]

Just read this, from Carey Smith from Alto Capital regarding share recomendations on The Bull. I wonder if Mr Smith ever had AUT as a buy?

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

Aurora Oil & Gas (AUT)

The US oil and gas shale sector has proved to be a company maker for AUT. The share price has skyrocketed in the past 18 months as market capitalisation approaches $1.3 billion. Today’s share price implies that ongoing development of its oil and gas fields will progress perfectly – that is there’s no unforeseen issues. For this reason, we suggest investors take profits.

Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:

29th November 2010
BBG: -4%
RIV: +18%

9th August 2010
EQN: +29%
ILU: +76%

That's pretty impressive...am an even happier holder of AUT now that Mr Smith has given his (lack of) endorsement...



DYOR

 

[trader8888]

Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:

29th November 2010
BBG: -4%
RIV: +18%

9th August 2010
EQN: +29%
ILU: +76%

That's pretty impressive...am an even happier holder of AUT now that Mr Smith has given his (lack of) endorsement...



DYOR

HAHA i had better figures than those in my first year of trading and i was 16 at the time lol. These guys call them selves advisors.

The big difference is we trade for a living (so we put everything into our research) they just do it as a job - big difference when its ur own money not someone elses.

 

[condog]

Thebloke has a hold on QBE, that says enough for me to know his credentials. 1. Insurance and airlines are about the riskiest companies you can get.

Its had a long term declining ROE and current ROE of approximately 15%. Why on earth would you hold something that risky, with a potential return on equity of 15%.

Some fools just dont get it. A supposed bluechip with only 20% franking.

Yeh smart analyst this fella is.

Id prefer advice from my communist grandmother.

Trader your spot on and thats why to cover my ass, i always say seek advice from a "good " adviser. Im yet to find one, but im sure theres a couple out there somewhere. Euroz have been pretty spot on so far.

 

[Assasin]

Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi

Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
Cheers.

 

[trader8888]

Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi

Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
Cheers.

HAHA thats gross

Ive been thinking about. Dont really know much about margin lending though. A question for people with more knowledge on this subject - Say i bought BHP with the money borrowed against AUT, or i bought SEA with the money borrowed against AUT. Would the invest in SEA command a higher interest rate because it is considered more risky??

Can margin calls come up, if the stock you used as security goes down - or the stock you invested the borrowed money with goes down - or both.

The way i interperate it is, a margin call can can only happen if one or more of the securities you had bought, decreased in value past a certain point??

 

[donteatme]

Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:

29th November 2010
BBG: -4%
RIV: +18%

9th August 2010
EQN: +29%
ILU: +76%

That's pretty impressive...am an even happier holder of AUT now that Mr Smith has given his (lack of) endorsement...



DYOR

Hahahahha, this is gold!

 

[Agentm]

production from hilcorp for dec 2010

various wells in the sugarkane and a few wildcats

 

[rockhound308]

production from hilcorp for dec 2010

various wells in the sugarkane and a few wildcats

Agent,
Would you happen to know who are the participants in the Sugarkane AMI (if it still exists)?

I know Burlington is the listed operator and assume TCE is still in there but i see hilcorp??? gets a mention here and there as well

any thoughts?

 

[Agentm]

Agent,
Would you happen to know who are the participants in the Sugarkane AMI (if it still exists)?

I know Burlington is the listed operator and assume TCE is still in there but i see hilcorp??? gets a mention here and there as well

any thoughts?

your testing me a little

sorts of things that come to mind, if your talking the original AMI is ADI - (now AWE) eka aut TCEI hilcorp. then you have to add lucas energy in a jvp with hilcorp

outside of the initial AMI you have larger suagrkane acreages under hilcorp and lucas, hilcorp solo, conocophillips (you know them as burlington), petrohawk, pioneer, murphy.. then you have to consider many other operators..

its changing all the time..

not sure if it helps

 

[bennywizard]

HAHA thats gross

Ive been thinking about. Dont really know much about margin lending though. A question for people with more knowledge on this subject - Say i bought BHP with the money borrowed against AUT, or i bought SEA with the money borrowed against AUT. Would the invest in SEA command a higher interest rate because it is considered more risky??

Can margin calls come up, if the stock you used as security goes down - or the stock you invested the borrowed money with goes down - or both.

The way i interperate it is, a margin call can can only happen if one or more of the securities you had bought, decreased in value past a certain point??

Assasin, yes I've taken it up

Tradder, you can borrow money with a margin loan to buy any share and the interest rate is the same, currently 9.6% with Comsec.
If the share you use as security goes down then your borrowing capacity also goes down and if you have borrowed the maximum amount then you would have a margin call. It gets a little more complex as if you borrow to buy a share with a LVR on it then that share gets added to your asset pool. (adding to your borrowing capacity) Also if you have more than one share in your portfolio with a LVR then the LVR goes up. With AUT for example if you also hold 4 other stocks with an LVR then comsec upgrades it to 40% (so you could borrow $40,000 if you have $100,000 of AUT and four other eligible stocks. More if you bought more AUT for example.
It's never a good idea to borrow the full amount unless you have additional funds that could cover you in the case of a margin call.
Margin loans really leverage your position and can make or lose you a lot depending on what happens to the market. Be careful not to leverage yourself too highly!

 

[trader8888]

Assasin, yes I've taken it up

Tradder, you can borrow money with a margin loan to buy any share and the interest rate is the same, currently 9.6% with Comsec.
If the share you use as security goes down then your borrowing capacity also goes down and if you have borrowed the maximum amount then you would have a margin call. It gets a little more complex as if you borrow to buy a share with a LVR on it then that share gets added to your asset pool. (adding to your borrowing capacity) Also if you have more than one share in your portfolio with a LVR then the LVR goes up. With AUT for example if you also hold 4 other stocks with an LVR then comsec upgrades it to 40% (so you could borrow $40,000 if you have $100,000 of AUT and four other eligible stocks. More if you bought more AUT for example.
It's never a good idea to borrow the full amount unless you have additional funds that could cover you in the case of a margin call.
Margin loans really leverage your position and can make or lose you a lot depending on what happens to the market. Be careful not to leverage yourself too highly!

Ok Cheers

So if i only own one stock with LVR - AUT and the stock was worth $100,000 then the max i can borrow is $35,000. Do other stocks without LVR count? SEA for example.

Say for example i bought LYC with the borrowed funds at $2.00 and LYC fell to $1 how much would the margin call be?

Pretty risky business this, you have double exposure for the chance of having to come up with funds. Plus you get slugged %9.6 each month. Not to mention if the company you invested the borrowed money in plumeted they would take your AUT shares.

Big risk, big money to be made though.

 

[poverty]

Ok Cheers

So if i only own one stock with LVR - AUT and the stock was worth $100,000 then the max i can borrow is $35,000. Do other stocks without LVR count? SEA for example.

You can use your borrowings to buy any stock you want, but one without an LVR won't count as security.

Say for example i bought LYC with the borrowed funds at $2.00 and LYC fell to $1 how much would the margin call be?

If you had 100K of AUT and 35K of LYC and LYC dropped to $1 you wouldn't even be in buffer let alone risking a margin call. This is because LYC itself is worth a further 35% LVR allowing you to borrow even more, but you only borrowed 35% against AUT, so weren't fully geared up

Pretty risky business this, you have double exposure for the chance of having to come up with funds. Plus you get slugged %9.6 each month. Not to mention if the company you invested the borrowed money in plumeted they would take your AUT shares.

Bear in mind that you do get to claim the 9.6% interest as a tax deduction. Also if you buy a company with no LVR it doesn't matter if that share goes up or down, as its not counting as security anyway.

 

[condog]

Its generally far safer to do it with an equity loan against your house. That way you dont get margin calls. The interest rate is comparrable, and repayments occur at times of your choice. If you leave say $10,000 balance in the loan you will always have roughly 12 months worth of interest payments as a buffer.

When the bank asks the purpose of the loan dont say its for shares or investment, as they may slug extra interest, and they make you sign a commercial loan application which has far less safety measures for you. Id tell them its for a pool, new car and holiday, and just for life style purposes and convienience.

If you dont have enough equity in the house then this option is not available.

Id caution people using margin loans, unless your a very experienced investor and are utilising stop losses. Its not for the faint hearted when the market moves suddenly.

as someone said high risk = high reward / loss.

AUt finished off nicely yesterday, there was plenty of buyer support with over 4Million which is a big day for AUT. Wouldnt supprise me if in a week or two we get another significant buyer disclosure.

 

[condog]

Well what do you know Harbour advisors the Canadian mob where buying yesterday and raised thier stake to 6.2%, purchasing 5million shares, since thier last purchase.

Thats a huge vote of confidence and imo sign of things to come when we hit the TSX.

 

[prgudula]

Condog,

spot on.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=AUT.AX&timestamp=20110202214700

Key Developments: Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT.AX)

Research a stock:
Latest Key Developments
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited Announces Holding Interest Of Harbour Advisors
Wednesday, 2 Feb 2011 04:47pm EST

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited announced that Harbour Advisors has an interest of 403,437,000 ordinary shares, which represents 5.1% of voting power in the Company.

 

[AngusSmart]

Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi

Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
Cheers.

haha story of my life, i sold out ages ago and my only chance now is thru cfd's or i guess margin loans same deal yeah..

i sold out at $3 the other day.. and was hoping for a pull back and a bit of a topup.. but that canadian buyer may be the cause of pushing things up again..

 

[AngusSmart]

Condog,

spot on.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=AUT.AX&timestamp=20110202214700

Key Developments: Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT.AX)

Research a stock:
Latest Key Developments
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited Announces Holding Interest Of Harbour Advisors
Wednesday, 2 Feb 2011 04:47pm EST

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited announced that Harbour Advisors has an interest of 403,437,000 ordinary shares, which represents 5.1% of voting power in the Company.

that 400,437,000 isnt the correct number. go back thru their announcements..

4.2 mil is around 1.1% in aut.. they now hold 6.2%.. harbour advisors are closer to 25,000,000 sorry for the rough figures but i made the mistake the other day thinking 403,437,000 was 5.1% which it would be 100%

 

[donteatme]

The man must feel like an idiot. Reached a new 52 week high after his sell recommendation. Good work

 

[geelongfan]

ugh.. i've been watching this stock as a newbie investor for a few weeks now. my commsec account finally opened up today but it seems like a bad idea to buy at a 52 week high.. bad timing i guess

 

[Magic Man]

Well well well.. Aut is back baby. after a slight pull back i took the oppurtunity to top up again and lucky i did. Note the buyers are definately back in to this one. Great work guys.