Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

I contacted Jon several times this afternoon re this ambiguity and a few other issues.

LEts say we dont see eye to eye on a few issues.

But credit where credits due. The legalities of the canadian listing dictate what can and cant be said and in what words it has to be said.

Yes the prospectus is a lawyers dream and everyone elses nightmare. But apparently thats the way it is and live with it.

I stressed the ambiguity and confusion that exists and Jon casted an eye over HC to see what i was referrring to , so hes well aware of your concerns.

Theres an announcement due out as a quarterly or some other form on 31st jan which is only a few days away, so id suggest we all cool down and wait, see whats in that, and then if we are still in the dark or confused then we make contact asking for clarity.

Lets just wait see what comes out.

In reference to the tsx lisitng i posted earlier everything ive ben able to extract from everyone im in contact with, so go up the page and read. It appears end of feb is the target date, but its largely out of AUT control from what i can gather.

I expressed the concern that a lot of the info in relation to the Canadian listing is burried in copious detail and v ery inclear and i suggested STRONGLY the need for a specific release clarrifying the issue to share holders.

Jon whilst bristeling and giving me a rather short answer was as always proffessional in his responses and careful not to breach asx rules of disclosure.

He expressed a desire that sometimes holders just need to trust managment and allow them to go about thier job, which is a fair enough request, but i guess it works both ways , as a holder i also expect to be kept fully informed, and i personally think it takes jack shiv effort to put out an update.

I also expressed my concern about the issue price for the CR which lets say we 100% disagree on.

Looking forward to jan 31st announcment.
 
For instance, one customer plans to increase the length of its laterals in the south Texas Eagle Ford play to 10,000 ft compared with 6,000-ft laterals that it is currently drilling, Lesar said.
From http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet...companies/20100/01/halliburton_s-profits.html

About Haliburton


Interesting wonderwho?
Nothing implied, but it will be interesting to see who and how thier flows and declines go.

In some areas its warranted in others its uneconomic.
 
This thing is a beast.. up 13 cents.. Shoudnt it be going downnnnnnnn??

Perhaps Jon was right on friday when he tried to convince me the quality of holders hed sold to would be interested in holding ( not i those words) but i think thats what he meant. I didnt agree, but i guess if this keeps happening , i will be happy to have egg all over my face.
 
Absolutely huge volumesw going through this morning. 203,000 oredr just got placed at 2.83. Nice to see

Buy Sell at 900,000 v 300,000 which also looks good .
 
I was close to my guess with AUT sitting on $2.85 on the 25th which gives me confidence in my very amateur charting abilities. :D

Good work too Condog on the updates!
 
We were all wrong, but in a good way though! Unbelievable, I would imagine a pull back now will be very very minimal and with price targets so high I may flood more money in asap.
 
AUT has finally broken through the upper trend channel its been stuck inside for about 3 months. My chart says it has hit it and retraced 5 times and today it broke through it quite strongly.

Hard to know whats going to happen with this stock! But it sure is exciting to have in the portfolio!!

95% return in 3 months isnt a bad result.
 
what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?
 
what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?


The arrival of new rigs might be the next bit of news, otherwise Canadian listing, and drilling/flow results.. am sure euroz will be putting out a new report in the coming weeks.
 
what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?

Im predicting reserves upgrade to be the next big re-rate. Those declines are much better than they predicted in the last report and also a possibilty of reducing well spacings which will be massive. Im thinking reserves could go up %40-50 just on the better than expected declines alone, if you ad in the reduced well spacing, you just do the math!! As someone else mentioned the ramp up in drill and fraccing crews is a massive bonus as well.
 
Lots of surprises.

This thing shocked everyone, especially those who had held off expecting a sell of this week, or worse still those who sold out hoping to rebuy. I think they added to the huge buying around today. When the sell off failed to eventuate, those who where cashed up went scrambling trying not to miss the boat.

Ive always said and i still think it, trading this thing is a dangerous game, its beeen a far better buy and hold.

My prediction going forward is , theres a lot of positive news, i see a new valuation after the reserves upgrade from Euroz to around the $4 - $4.50 mark.

I reckon we will be $3.60 in 1-3 months. Good luck to all

DYOR and seek good advice, which is hard to get. Find new advice if its crap like most.
 
possibilty of reducing well spacings which will be massive.

Thats possibly the most overlooked item in the future growth oF AUT. ITs basically a 50-100% increase in reserves, sitting there for the taking, and when you look at the numbers in that recent Canadian prospectus we are talking numbers between 4 and 6 Billion.

Mental note: dont forget the possibility to double reserves and EUR.
 
Thats possibly the most overlooked item in the future growth oF AUT. ITs basically a 50-100% increase in reserves, sitting there for the taking, and when you look at the numbers in that recent Canadian prospectus we are talking numbers between 4 and 6 Billion.

Mental note: dont forget the possibility to double reserves and EUR.

Thats it condog. The canadian prospectes states on a reserves basis, a NPV of $3Billion with 0 risk. Reduce those wells spaces to 40acres NPV goes to $6Billion, combined with the better than expected declines and we could be up to a NPV of $9Billion on 0 risk. Factor in NPV with %50 risk gives you $4.5 Billion.

AUT currently at $2.95 = MC of $1.045Billion - Bassically $4.5Billion is 4 times the price now, giving you $2.95x4 = $11.80 a share on a conservative %50 risk.
 
Condog can i ask - what are your thoughts on BCC's EFS potential? they have some pretty decent IP's to date

Trader 8888

Sorry to gate crash but why not visit BCC threadt and put the question there ? I am sure Condog will appreciate your question there too..

Cheers
 
I might be crazy for thinking this but in addition to the other things people have mentioned about re rating reserves and the possibility of reducing well spacings....plus the paying off off the original wells which I don't think has been noted by the company yet I feel another capital raising might come sooner than expected. Why? because management have stated that they intend to peruse an aggressive approach to further land acquisitions in 2011. This last one has been exceptional and I for one would welcome more at the right price of course. If they wait this time until we reach say $3.50 that would be awesome, interested to hear others thoughts on this.
 
I might be crazy for thinking this but in addition to the other things people have mentioned about re rating reserves and the possibility of reducing well spacings....plus the paying off off the original wells which I don't think has been noted by the company yet I feel another capital raising might come sooner than expected. Why? because management have stated that they intend to peruse an aggressive approach to further land acquisitions in 2011. This last one has been exceptional and I for one would welcome more at the right price of course. If they wait this time until we reach say $3.50 that would be awesome, interested to hear others thoughts on this.

Hia benny
Yes the last acqusition proved very fruitful, and i too believe new acqusitions will also prove very fruitful "at the right price" and "with a more realistic issue price for the Cr".

With an acqusition thats going to increase reserves by 50%, theyd have to be hopeless not to be able to issue 10-20% abive vWAP
 
When you go back to page 17 and 18 of this thread and look at my spread sheet estimates we have well and truly exceeded all and at the time they looked incredibly optimistic to most. Plenty of tongue in cheek comments and a few attacks over the times over these numbers.

But the bit i want to draw your attention to is we have already surpassed my end of 2011 figures for most those projections. LArgely due to increased oil prices, acquisitions and accellerated drilling programs.
Based on the same numbers i had end of 2012 targets ranging from around $5 - $7.79.

Right now the updated model im using which if anything is more conservative, but also more accurate, as its costings and flow data is a lot more accurate, i have projections of $5.42 to $6.69 for end of 2011.

End of 2012 i currently have $7.29 - $8.74

If managment make acqusitions or again increase dilling pace that number should increase. Likewise if hilcorp reduce well spacing that number could increase significantly.

There are also downside risks involving flow data, declines, accidents and oil price.

These figures are for discussion purposes only, DO NOT base decisions on them or rely on them for any purpose other then discussion.
 
Top