AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Dukey]

The VWAP at the time was only just over $1.60, as it raced up to $2.20 on light volume immediately after the Halt, compared to the previous few days, according to Jon Stewart. It as trading at around $1.60 - $1.70 just prior to the halt.

You make a very valid point, and yes shareholders should consider voting no. It wont get up, but it will send a clear message that we want more appropriately priced CR's.

Managment needs to take into account sp growth after the announcment .

sp is certainly holding up very strongly and higher than i thought it would following the cap raising. I kind of figured about $2 might be the support mark... but then the purchase is effectively increasing reserves by 50% isn't it? ... so maybe thats what is being taken into account.

... waiting for a slight pullback to buy more... waiting...
-D

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

A little bragging new article for you AUT holders out there and a double for the SEA holders too...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...d-losers-of-2010/story-e6frg9lo-1225978663161

Nothing we didn't already know, but the more we see AUT (and SEA ) in the news the better for us.... especially when they are getting good wraps.

 

[estseon]

A little bragging new article for you AUT holders out there and a double for the SEA holders too...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...d-losers-of-2010/story-e6frg9lo-1225978663161

Nothing we didn't already know, but the more we see AUT (and SEA ) in the news the better for us.... especially when they are getting good wraps.

The Board has worked hard to achieve that extraordinary growth in SP and Mkt Cap. Good for them and lucky for us.

Note that you are in Queensland - hope that things are OK in your area - the pictures are horrendous. There's some pretty weird weather around - we've had (S.E. England) the coldest December for over 100 years.

 

[estseon]

I just received Aut General Meeting paperwork with Proxy Form. I'm only a newbie so forgive my ignorance but I can not understand why managment decided on such excessively discounted price ($1.60) when the price at the time this was decided was already close to $2.20.
Why would shareholders vote further in support of such excessive discount to parties that will make unreasonable profits by immediately dumping without having shouldered any risk whatsoever.
I for one do not feel inclined to support this.
If shareholders don't support would managment come up with more appropriate pricing?
Any thoughts?

The 2 tranche raising was announced on 15 December and AUT had been flat-lining at about 180c since the announcement of the land acquisition on 10 December. The institutions will have committed before the 10 December although the price might have been fixed later by formula. The max discount was about 20c: that is, 12.5%. We've seen it move that far over the xmas period. The instis are on risk until 25 Jan. They committed 6 - 7 weeks before they would have the shares to trade. Consider - would you commit your cash on that basis before seeing the market reaction to the deal that period of time before you would have the shares to trade for less than a 12.5% discount? How would you feel if you were pushed into a lower discount and the shares were trading at less than your subscription price before you had a chance to sell? Would you support any future raising if that is the case?

 

[Magic Man]

Hey there.
Just a quick question for everyone. I have heard that sea is about 12 to 16 months behind aut. Realistically is it possible for sea to be in the same position as aut in 12 months time. What does sea have to do to be in the same position and is it realistically possible??

 

[condog]

magic man its already put on 760% in 12 months so tecnically its already an AUt in terms of growth.

On most metrics SEA is very cheap.

It has 150,000 approx acres and most of it is very high quality. If it can sure up these reserves SEA will be very valuable imo.

SEA also has an uncanny ability to pull of amazing deals in on selling early stage acerage. If it can continue this trend its growth could be staggering.

 

[condog]

Not sure if anyone mentioned

Three new well apps by Hilcorp on the 14th, 16th and 17th Dec

Jordan Unit

Turnbull 5H

Hollman Unit

 

[condog]

PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby From: The Australian January 03, 2011.

(continued)

Analysts did pretty well too, and it's probably worth listening to Dave Wall at Hartleys in 2011. In July, Pure Speculation had him recommending Aurora Oil & Gas (AUT). Wall put a valuation of $1.64 a share on the US shale play. It closed on Friday at $2.24, the year's best-performing stock.

Credit also to the reader who bombarded us with emails about AUT. He was right: we should have paid more attention to that story, but investors had been burned so many times by US oil and gas stories from our juniors.

continued)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/


Hahahahha gues who that was that gave him all the emails

He would have doen his readers well if he published more then one mention of AUT....
Kind a makes me chuckle A LOT.

 

[Magic Man]

Haha Nice one Condog. Id like to know his new valuation now..

 

[trader8888]

Haha Nice one Condog. Id like to know his new valuation now..

When AUT reached his target he downgraded AUT from "HOLD" to "REDUCE" now we are $2.24 about a 60c premium to when he said to start selling. Really shows you how much he knows. For me i think the real ones to listen to is EUROZ they seem to be very tight with Jon, and have a very good understanding on the EFS.

 

[Magic Man]

what was the Euroz valuation again?

 

[trader8888]

what was the Euroz valuation again?

From memory it was around $3.40

 

[philly]

what was the Euroz valuation again?

From memory it was around $3.40

Do they put a time frame on when they think this target will be achieved?
It closed at $2.24 on 31-12-10 so $3.40 is a jump of a bit over 50%.
Given that AUT has recently acquired extra acreage and that drilling in to step up in 2011 is it realistic to expect the target to be achieved by end of the 1st Q of 2011?

And well done Condog on outsmarting the smarties. Your knowledge of the EFS is greatly appreciated

 

[prgudula]

Why Oil Stocks Are Better Investment Than Crude Futures

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40893215

 

[brendoz]

i have to agree, Euroz reports have been fantastic, there is plenty of info there, and they have an ability to dumb it down and summarise it for people like myself
im pretty sure their last report was a target between $2.97 and $3.38.

i was also told by a friend that AUT could now be geared at 40%- im not so sure though, my commsec account certainly doesnt allow any margin lending on AUT just yet.. does anyone else know anything about this?

forgive me for my ignorance, but can anyone here give me a quick run down on rules regarding participation in capital raising- my understanding is if you have participated within a 12 month period on that particular stock, then you cannot participate within that timeframe, is this correct? i also think i read somewhere in this thread that this rule can be overturned by a board vote? im not sure, but if someone could shed some light it would be great!

 

[condog]

hahhah yeh out smarting the smarties. Some times the smarties arent as smart as you think.

Theres been plenty of so called smart people have made very bad calls on AUT. Fact is it proved them all wrong, and its set to do it all over again, for those saying get out now.

 

[mir]

brendoz
was also told by a friend that AUT could now be geared at 40%- I'm not so sure though, my commsec account certainly doesn't allow any margin lending on AUT just yet.. does anyone else know anything about this?

leverage equities, anz & now nab

 

[nioka]

hahhah yeh out smarting the smarties. Some times the smarties arent as smart as you think.

Theres been plenty of so called smart people have made very bad calls on AUT. Fact is it proved them all wrong, and its set to do it all over again, for those saying get out now.

Depends on what you/they did with the money. The few I have sold to date were exchanged mainly for LYC, the "new oil". Lyc has performed better for me than AUT over that period and I expect that it will continue to do that over time. It also spreads the risk by not having too many of your eggs in one basket. AUT has performed well but it is not the only pebble on the beach with a few more outshining it. While the gap with EKA has widened I do expect it to narrow again and I will exchange more AUT for EKA.

 

[brendoz]

MIR- I'm pretty sure their account allowing the gearing is through macquarie. Just recently, I have also seen there are CFD's available on aurora.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I would guess today's drop in share price was due to Oil prices below 90c and a bit of profit taking. Was disappointed to see it drop over 10c today though, especially with limited sellers it seemed.