AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

condog said:
A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy.

nunthewiser said:
Oh dear.......

these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.

On a low volume stock like AUT sometimes it pays to use this method so you dont scare the buyers off with larger sell orders

anyone can do it IB provides this service.
there are numerous threads on ASF in regards to this practise.

nothin "evil" or conspiratory about it .

on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.

My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.

condog said:
Provocative and unnecesary.
. Similarly an ordinary person cannot place orders in such small parcels economically, hence another breach. Mark my words, IMF or Slater and Gordon will sieze on this in a few years time and go after purpetrators with a big class action like the banks are currently facing.

.

nunthewiser said:
?
Why? because i provided facts ?

This thread is unbelievable! provide facts with no abuse and name calling??? WTF??... oh i know why ....lol its because it exposed some of the made up rubbish that gets posted in threads at times.

DEAR ASF READERS PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH WHEN LISTENING TO POSTERS IN THESE THREADS.

thankyou.

condog said:
Nun , with respect where are the facts. .

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=orderTypes

Dear condog my posts are not an attack on you as a person merelyy providing facts for the garbage you are passing off as "bro " talk which is unerifiable and in breach of ASF rules in regards to rumours . please refrain from doing so as asked by Joe earlier

thankyou

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

nioka said:
I don't say bots are evil but I do say there is always a reason for them to be active. I like to know they are active in any stock I am interested in and I particularly like to know whether they are buying or selling. My actions in buying or selling are influenced by bot action. I also believe that in order to have a level playing field that brokers should have their orders placed without being hidden in any way, the same as my orders are there for everyone to see.

Gday Nokia .

m8 its no different from a few years back when "U" orders were rife U=undisclosed....... used to be on the majority of blue chips on orders that wanted to keep there size private.back then however it was limited to 250k(could be wrong) before you could use it.

re orders being hidden .... what about market orders?.....on some stocks MOST volumes traded actually come off screen and take out the listed(in depth) punters.

ppl may not agree with this algo trading ( bots as ppl like to call them ) but its a fact of life and one merely has to see it for what it is ...... another type of order.

nioka · 31 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
ppl may not agree with this algo trading ( bots as ppl like to call them ) but its a fact of life and one merely has to see it for what it is ...... another type of order.

Agree with you on that score but my point remains. "I like to know when they are active. I like to know if they are buying or selling." :2twocents

mir · 31 July 2010

condog
i must admit i get a laugh from NUN's posts , low on content & high on humour, please keep it up otherwise it gets a bit boring.

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

mir said:
condog
i must admit i get a laugh from NUN's posts , low on content & high on humour, please keep it up otherwise it gets a bit boring.

low on content?

i have provied DETAILED volume analysis here

I have provided a FACTUAL answer for this myyth on "bot " trading

is it because i provide the other side to the stuff here that my comments are regarded as "low content" ?

nulla nulla · 31 July 2010

Actualy the u=undisclosed buy/sell bids have been popping up with increasing frequency in the last two or three weeks. ITO is a perfect example. Sometimes you can get a rough estimate of their size in the opening and closing auctions.
I note that another week has ended and AUT closed on $0.82. Those resistance levels are certainly proving a stumbling block. That and the sell down volumes. I guess people are still cashing out their share take up for the quick profits.

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

nulla nulla said:
Actualy the u=undisclosed buy/sell bids have been popping up with increasing frequency in the last two or three weeks. ITO is a perfect example. Sometimes you can get a rough estimate of their size in the opening and closing auctions.
I note that another week has ended and AUT closed on $0.82. Those resistance levels are certainly proving a stumbling block. That and the sell down volumes. I guess people are still cashing out their share take up for the quick profits.

marked as a "U" in the depths nulla?

if so thats news to me mate as i thought that was wiped out a while back , if you correct i apologise for my earlier post in regards to " U " orders

BrightGreenGlow · 31 July 2010

Really good guys, keep fighting. I keep coming back to find news posted by condog so then I can read more about his news findings and today I see a few of of you and one in particular quoting posts with nothing in regards to AUT. Guys comon.

Nun.. comon dude, why do you keep posting here and putting wood into the fire?

Condog.. you post a lot of content, why worry about someone else's opinions?

*shake hands please*

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

condog
ReachForTheSkies

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: FreeFromTheThoughtPolice
Posts: 1,070 Re: AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy

nunthewiser said:
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=orderTypes

Dear condog my posts are not an attack on you as a person merelyy providing facts for the garbage you are passing off as "bro " talk which is unerifiable and in breach of ASF rules in regards to rumours . please refrain from doing so as asked by Joe earlier

thankyou

BrightGreenGlow said:
Nun.. comon dude, why do you keep posting here and putting wood into the fire?

*

That is why. Other people read these threads also and may be swayed by unfactual rumours and other stuff posted here

I have no problem with any of the FACTUAL analysis provided in this thread whatsoever

and as far as my posts being AUT unrelated i disagree , my posts and copies of posts are in DIRECT discussion about fridays trades

Just keeping it real

happytown · 31 July 2010

condog said:
extract of interest FROM
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/359...s-liquids-ngls-coal-offshore-drilling-gom.htm

according to Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry. Porter, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns, also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints. He shares some of his contrarian opinions in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report.

...

PS: In my mind, horizontal drilling and the existence of liquids in these shales is the game-changer for the energy business, and I really don't think people appreciate how big a change it's going to be or how large the production from these fields is going to be. But there is one big hiccup in all of this.

TER: What's that?

PS: There are a lot of environmental concerns about the fracking process, and I don't think that they're going to go away. Thus, I anticipate much tighter controls going forward on the horizontal drilling technologies that these companies have been using, which will make drilling progressively more expensive. Right now a single well costs them about $5 million to drill, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the price increase significantly to $10 million or $15 million per well just because of the costs of using these chemicals and making sure they get cleaned up.

...

I think the difficulty is trying to produce these wells in a way that isn't very destructive to the environment, because horizontal drilling and the fracking process are very disruptive to groundwater supplies. They have to be really careful where they do this kind of drilling to avoid the risk of contaminating a large reservoir.

this post above, #677, warns of a potential tripling of the cost of drilling wells, and bearing in mind the EPA is currently in the early stages of a study into hydraulic fracturing and its effects on groundwater, including in Texas, it is somewhat surprising that those presenting forward financial projections for aut, don't contemplate this possibility

should an objective analysis at least include both possibilities - current drilling costs approx being the norm going forward, and drilling costs potentially as much as tripling?

J&M · 31 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
That is why. Other people read these threads also and may be swayed by unfactual rumours and other stuff posted here

I have no problem with any of the FACTUAL analysis provided in this thread whatsoever

and as far as my posts being AUT unrelated i disagree , my posts and copies of posts are in DIRECT discussion about fridays trades

Just keeping it real

There lots of points of view to buy or sell a Stock
as a newbie I look at both points I like to read condogs posts about the reasons to hold this share and the upside which in his calculations are all positive. The nun seems to look at the stock from a different aspect
and looks at maybe downside just to keep it real
He has a wicked sense of humor I don't find this a put-down of another member. I laugh at some of his comments
Keep posting to you all
I have nothing more to say
James

condog · 31 July 2010

Ok let me rephrase this terrible non factual two line statement that has cause the sky to fall in.

bro=Nokia

fixed = now verifiable, we can all move on with our lives

Wow two lines out of 1070 post unverifieabla and youd swear the god damn sky was gunna fallin. But i just looked outside and it didnt. Funny thing is AUt hasnt plunged either. hmmmm what to think???

i checked my glass and what do you know it was half full.

Still waiting to see some semblance of this mythical analisys the nun speaks of so frequently. All i ever saw was a poorly placed trendline with two touches and a resistance line, which could be innefectual as it was on a poorly placed trendline imo.

Nun i dont know why you bother, its all negati ve, you dont hold and its a crap stock to trade. If its just to keep us bastards honest then attack our analysis, with counter analysis, but my god why bother, surely chasing better investments yourself is time better spent.

Looking forward to the reserves upgrade are we all. xoxo

Go the Eels. 5.30 gunna smash the roosters. by the way this is only opinion. please do not rely on this predition as gospel or truth. Ok.

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

Still waiting to see some semblance of this mythical analisys the nun speaks of so frequently.
, .

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

oops sorry i missed the last three links ....... apologies for any confusion but i think my point is clear now

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570429#post570429

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570446#post570446

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570854#post570854

sam76 · 31 July 2010

Where are the mods because this thread is another fine example of just how far downhill this site has gone.

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

sam76 said:
Where are the mods because this thread is another fine example of just how far downhill this site has gone.

??

How so sam ?

we are providing analysis

we are providing answers and counter arguments to them answers

a lot of indepth analysis here

yes there has been a lot of niggling but now the arguments are at the analysis and not on a personal basis.

should it be like hot flopper and only one side of the story told?

Personally think that this thread is one of the most indepth ( as far as analysis goes ) threads on the whole of ASF at present.

Why the negativity ?

Slipperz · 31 July 2010

Nunthewiser I have my stop in at 0.75.

I doubt it's going to get hit but if we have a duster or the POO collapses then anythings possible.

I still consider 0.82 cents to be a minor support level and was happy to buy off it even if intraday trades offered a cent or two discount.

My reason for buying in on friday was threefold.

As I mentioned earlier I thought the quarterly would make for good reading, 82 cents is a support level and also the volume has been ticking up all week and I thought Firday might have been our next kick off point for the next leg up.

I guess the overall bearish tone to Fridays trading kept a lid on things.

Dow was pretty flat to finish the week so it's a level playing field on monday.

Oilprice is starting to give 90 dollars a nudge and looking pretty bullish and that is one key driver going forward

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

Slipperz said:
Nunthewiser I have my stop in at 0.75.

I still consider 0.82 cents to be a minor support level and was happy to buy off it even if intraday trades offered a cent or two discount.

Cheers, good luck with your hold.

I will not ask why .75 as stop as each and everyone of us has a varing reason for placing the stops where we place them ( be it tech support/fund support or whatever )

i agree on 82 minor suppport and next few days should be intresting.

Intraday vols on friday were intresting around the lows and i dare say you would have already looked at vwap/c.o.s etc

Currently in too risky a spot for me to warrant an entry but not gunna knock yours either.........

I will be in with Bells on if it breaks resistance

will be standing back watching for the selloff/ panic if it breaks supports...and waiting with Bells on for a overshoot.

Excuse my chart, I trade them not draw them

mir · 31 July 2010

happytime
"this post above, #677, warns of a potential tripling of the cost of drilling wells"

fair point but here is a bit from hartleys report

"Texas Crude – Insights into Quality of AUT Acreage
We spent time with one of the geologists credited with the discovery of the Eagle Ford, who works for Texas Crude, one of AUT’s partners. The quality of the acreage was confirmed by comparative well data showing best initial production in the play and best 30 day flow rates for both oil and gas equivalent, all of which occurred within the area in which AUT has an interest."

here is a bit from an AUT report

"Preliminary Results Indicate Robust Economics
Industry analysis shows the Eagle
Ford to be one of the best shale
plays in North America"

so AUT is in "one of the best shale plays" & have the best acres in that play ,the economics of acreage is second to none, so if drilling cost triple most other operators will struggle a whole lot more.

Agentm · 31 July 2010

Slipperz said:
I doubt it's going to get hit but if we have a duster or the POO collapses then anythings possible.

Oilprice is starting to give 90 dollars a nudge and looking pretty bullish and that is one key driver going forward

JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered by 5.5 percent its forecast for New York oil prices this year on speculation a slowdown in global economies will limit crude’s potential to rise.

The bank cut to $77.25 a barrel its estimate for the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the rest of 2010, from a forecast of $81.75 a barrel made last month, according to a monthly report e-mailed today. It lowered its forecast for 2011’s average price to $79.25 a barrel from $90.

“We see both lower prices and a tighter range ahead -- but with increased risks,” Lawrence Eagles, an analyst for the U.S. bank, wrote in the report. “Weaker economic growth, energy efficiency and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intransigence provide downside risks.”

Crude may fall next week amid increases in U.S. supplies and OPEC production, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude oil has declined by 0.5 percent this year to $78.95 a barrel in New York, after rising 78 percent last year.

“There’s an increased drive towards energy efficiency and renewable energy in China,” said Henry Wang, managing director, of Beijing-based energy consultant Gate International Ltd. “This could create downward pressure on oil demand.”

Pressure on China’s oil demand, the world’s biggest energy user, affects global consumption, which may impact prices, Wang, who formerly worked for Royal Dutch Shell Plc. in China, said by phone from Beijing today.

Production Cuts

Oil prices may fall more than expected on lower demand and a risk OPEC member nations won’t adhere to production cuts, the bank said.

“If demand drops, the Gulf Trio, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are likely to demand cuts from ‘leaky’ members to rebalance the market, but any delay in response risks a fall in prices as low as $50 a barrel,” Eagles said.

The demand outlook in the projection has been moderated in recent months because of shifts in the bank’s economic forecasts, according to the report.

“This month sees further changes, which take down 2010 demand growth to 1.8 million barrels a day and 2011 to a ‘trend’ 1.5 million barrels a day,” Eagles said. “The net sum of our supply and demand changes reduces the call on OPEC by 1.2 million barrels a day at the end of 2011.”

now where did i see this before?? oh,, now i remember, those groundhog days..

i dont really see anywhere where the consensus on oil @ $90, but your entitled to think it but can you explain what the basis is for the estimate slipperz

its important to back up how you think oil is going to reach $90. the very mild downgrading of oil with a very stark warning of what may happen if the usual suspects dont conform.. ie $50 oil... its pretty easy to get there.. and hedge funds thrive on these type of conditions..

imho the trend is down... thats one thing i keep a close watch on..

as for the s&p 500 miracle 10% run on vapour, and with equity funds withdrawing week in week out, 11.5 billion in july alone, i am sure this bizzare us market will sort it self out.. and keep an eye on the ecri..

imho the discussion of the downside, which will send the smallcaps to cash value in a heartbeat is something anyone risking an entry needs to consider..

we have seen how little unity there was a few years back when it hit the fan and oil went to $30.. be cautious on the oil prices and imho try and back up claims of $90 oil with at least some evidence..

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

nunthewiser

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nioka

mir

nunthewiser

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

nunthewiser

BrightGreenGlow

nunthewiser

happytown

J&M

condog

nunthewiser

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sam76

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