AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[subasurf]

So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?

It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs.

I feel like I'm at a nail salon not a web forum for traders. For the love of God, please take your little petty issues to PM. The actual posts regarding AUT have been great, from everyone and has been a enjoyable and informative read. It's fantastic to see multiple conflicting views on a stock...just keep them professional.

 

[condog]

So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?

It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs.

I feel like I'm at a nail salon not a web forum for traders. For the love of God, please take your little petty issues to PM. The actual posts regarding AUT have been great, from everyone and has been a enjoyable and informative read. It's fantastic to see multiple conflicting views on a stock...just keep them professional.

If you read through the rubbish you will also see theres some of the most comprehensive fundamental analysis on the entire forum in here as well. I suggest you focus on that while having the hair and nails done.

 

[Agentm]

pioneer has their partner in place..

NEW DELHI, Jun 26, 2010 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) --

India's Reliance Industries
(BSE:500325) on Thursday said it will pay US$1.3 billion to acquire 45 per cent stake in Pioneer Natural Resources' shale gas assets south of Texas -- its second purchase in the US in three months.

RIL will pay US$1.315 billion to Pioneer and its partner Newpek LLC to get 45 per cent of about 263,000 net acres of Eagle Ford Shale, the company said in a statement.

The acreage in south of Texas has 10 trillion cubic feet of resource potential, according to Pioneer, which will continue to be operator at the property.

Shale gas is natural gas stored in organic-rich sedimentary rocks. It is considered an unconventional source as the gas may be attached to or "absorbed" onto organic matter.

The Eagle Ford Shale currently produces 28 million cubic feet per day of gas from five wells and Pioneer believes the acreage can support drilling of over 1,750 wells.

RIL said it will pay US$263 million up front and fund US$1.1 billion of Pioneer and Newpek LLC's future drilling costs.

The deferred payment will be made over four years.


lol subasurf.. nice post.. despite the best efforts of joe, they aint listening..

imho the thread will probably be closed down.. what choice has he been given?

 

[Agentm]

Submitted 07/02/2010 Approved 07/05/2010 698511 255-31698 HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310) MAY UNIT 1H 02 KARNES Horizontal New Drill - 13500 Approved

Submitted 07/09/2010 Approved 07/12/2010 698753 255-31702 HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310) PATINO UNIT 1H 02 KARNES Horizontal New Drill - 13500 Approved

Submitted 07/21/2010 699372 255-31709 HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310) LUNA UNIT 1H 02 KARNES Horizontal New Drill - 13500 Mapping

not much discussion on the three new permits, but i am sure they will be discussed if a second rig arrives on the scene

plenty of news to come for aut, the reserves upgrade.. and that will be the right moment to unload the 46 mill shares waiting for a new home..

whether the brokers can push it hard enough and get the volumes through and how far the sp will migrate up or down as a result is all unknown unknowns.. the likes of hartleys has been touting big numbers for the market to get excited about, so the opportunity for aut to fly is absolute, you can throw your charts out when it gets down to reserves upgrades..

imho it doesnt matter what fanciful upside you see, it will all be driven by how many buyers can be attracted to the share when you start feeding the market with upgrades.. and the opportunity for the sophisticated investors to unload will not be missed. thats what they invested for. so they will be all over each other when the next news is released.. the real question is, can the news generate turnover more than the cap raising, then your likely to be trending into positive territory.. this year aut turned over 84 million share, this month 13 mill shares... so its possible that 46 mill can be turned over on some thumping news stops.. but it better be brilliant..

as with all posts here.. this is all imho, and dyor,, and please show all forum users respect and courtesy.. posting this does not mean one person is right or wrong, unfortunately this forum has degraded to a point where one sole member makes its not possible to have an opinion.. so let this post just be post, an opinion, and respect shown to asf members.. imho the faster that is learned the less likely joe will actually shut this thread down, which imho he should have done some time ago..

good luck to the buyers and best of luck to the sophisticated investors about to exit..

 

[5haretrader]

If you read through the rubbish...

To be honest its a bit unfortunate that for such a great time in this stock's history, everyone has jammed up the AUT thread with rubbish that has to be read through.

The EGOempire oil and gas forum is somewhere else, lets keep the talk to AUT and not 'told-ya-so' tales

 

[Sdajii]

So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?

It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs.

I see very few actual personal attacks, but a lot of sooking from people who claim to have been "attacked" when someone has quite appropriately questioned what they said. It's a personal attack to say "You're an idiot" but not to say "I think you are wrong" or "I believe your argument is flawed/irrelevant"

I don't particularly care if there are personal attacks (not that there have been many at all) or whinging (which is good, because there has been a heap of it), as long as the goodies are still in the thread to pick through.

It seems quite silly to be looking at charts at the moment without considering the events. AUT is at such a significant point in its development, it is going to move according to where the company is going, which is going to be reasonably independent of the market trends, and very independent of what charting predicts. If you're a charter/trend follower, ignore AUT and go to BHP or a bank or something.

Condog: I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but can't understand why you are so desperate to convince people of it. Being right is enough, you've said your piece, people can either take it or leave it. You won't convince the charters, and the people who are lying won't stop lying, and even if you actually could make them acknowledge that you're right, it wouldn't make you any more right. Then again, if you're wrong, better not to be so loud about it. No point jumping up and down too much when you've already said what you have to say, just say it and let people accept or reject it.

 

[nulla nulla]

Yup, a bubble forming even, and on an up day like today AUT finished on....$0.84. I'll wait just a little bit longer.
Still struggling to break above the resistance levels and the posts are starting to pre-empt the impact of (hopefully) further positive press releases.
At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect actual production volumes, sales and profits.

Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If you and nun did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.

You missed the point. At some stage the market will want to see actual financial reports of production volumes, sales and profits. Not statements of "expected" production volumes, sales and profits.

 

[condog]

You missed the point. At some stage the market will want to see actual financial reports of production volumes, sales and profits. Not statements of "expected" production volumes, sales and profits.

Nulla true. But you cant drill wells faster then you can drill them. They take time and its the nature of the business in this stage. All investors understand that. Anyone who has invested surely knows Q4 is the dat and exactly why.

Accurate well flows are available on both the TRRC and ASX, both of which have heavy penalties for publishing false information.

Q4 financials will include cash flows post repayment of hilcorps drilling costs, as per the farmin agreement. If anything due to the fantastic pace of hilcorp, the successful CR and SPP, the accellerated program and the results of Morgan, Ranch and the Turnbulls, repayment would be ahead of schedule.

 

[condog]

RIL on the lookout for two more US Shale Acquisitions

Extract from long article
http://www.ensec.org/index.php?opti...ty&catid=108:energysecuritycontent&Itemid=365

India's unconventional gas play

Apart from the discoveries of conventional gas, Indian companies are also excited about developments in unconventional (shale) gas. In April 2010, RIL entered into a joint venture with the US-based Atlas Energy, Inc. under which RIL acquired a 40 percent interest in Atlas’ core Marcellus Shale acreage position in Pennsylvania, US. Recently there are reports that the company has acquired a 45 percent stake in the Eagle Ford shale gas field in Texas, which is owned by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. The company is looking for two more shale gas acquisitions in the US.

 

[condog]

Lucas Energy Announces Completion of Gescheidle No.1 Well
HOUSTON, Jul 26, 2010 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Lucas Energy, Inc. /quotes/comstock/14*!lei/quotes/nls/lei (LEI 2.20, -0.04, -1.75%) an independent oil and gas company (the "Company") based in Houston, Texas, today announced that the Company has completed Gescheidle No.1 well on May 11, 2010. The well is a plug back of a lateral in the Austin Chalk formation, and a new straight hole completion in the Buda formation. The well tested 254 BOPD and 130 BWPD flowing. The water is load water from the stimulation treatment.

William A. Sawyer, President and CEO of Lucas Energy, said, "The Gescheidle No.1 well is one of our best recompletion producers to date. Further, this well shows good potential in the Eagle Ford formation on the well logs run during the recompletion." For more information on this and other activities of the Company, see the Lucas Energy web site www.lucasenergy.com.

Lucas must be crying tears of blood when they read about AUT's results if they think that is newsworthy. Admitedly its in the chalks not the shale. And does show the futre value of the chalks to get a second run from each of these wells.

 

[condog]

With full respect for the deceased and thier families the following is relevant to AUT and onshore players. As it highlights what i was trying to say several weeks ago. The regulatory machine will respond by wrapping offshore drilling in the gulf in additional expenses and red tape, making onshore economics far better. This in turn as well as the emergency response units and extra safety costs will drive up off shore costs.

2ND US House Leaders Propose Lifting Liability Limits On Oil Cos
First Published Tuesday, 27 July 2010 02:40 am - © 2010 Dow Jones
(Updates to include additional details on bill proposals.)
By Tennille Tracy and Siobhan Hughes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. House Democrats unveiled a bill Monday that would eliminate the cap on damage claims that BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) and other oil companies would have to pay for spills such as the one in the Gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for a vote Friday on the first chamber-wide response to the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history.
Under the bill, introduced by Rep. Nick Rahall, a West Virginia Democrat who chairs the U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources, offshore companies will be responsible for 100% of damages and cleanup costs caused by spills for which they are responsible.
The bill also prohibits the federal government from granting new drilling permits to companies that have violated safety or environmental laws within the last seven years, or suffered more than 10 fatalities at one of its production or development facilities.
There were 11 people who died when the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April.

 

[condog]

China gas study finds need to boost imports

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-di...cs-markets/2010/07/china-gas_study_finds.html
Jul 26, 2010
Marilyn Radler
OGJ Senior Editor-Economics

HOUSTON, July 26 -- China’s unconventional gas production will climb sharply to 2030 to help meet the country’s growing demand for gas, but China will have to boost its imports over the next decade, says a study by Wood Mackenzie.

Although conventional gas supply in China will continue to grow, it cannot keep pace with future demand during this decade, and China will need to secure additional volumes of imported gas in the form of both LNG and piped gas through 2020, the study says.

WoodMac forecasts that China’s demand for LNG in 2020 will be 46 million tonnes/year, up from its previous forecast of 31 million tpy.

and
China's LNG Demand Forecast for 2020 Raised by 48%, Wood Mackenzie Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...or-2020-raised-by-48-wood-mackenzie-says.html

Also worth a read

Gas demand rises even as India loses out on cheap LNG
http://www.business-standard.com/in...ises-even-as-india-loses-outcheap-lng/402615/

Oil Supplies Falling to Four-Month Low in Survey on Storm: Energy Markets
U.S. crude oil inventories probably fell to a four-month low last week as imports declined and Tropical Storm Bonnie disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Stockpiles fell 1.75 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, in the seven days ended July 23 from 353.5 million the week earlier, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. The last time supplies were so low was March 19, when prices averaged $81.46 a barrel.

Producers evacuated 15 rigs and 106 production platforms in anticipation of Bonnie, idling 52 percent of U.S. Gulf oil output, according to according to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement. The storm dissipated over the Gulf on July 24 without making landfall in the oil-producing region. About 27 percent of production remained shut-in yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...th-low-in-survey-on-storm-energy-markets.html

Oil Trades Near 11-Week High; Goldman Says Crude Too Cheap
By Grant Smith - Jul 27, 2010 8:21 PM GMT+1000 Tue Jul 27 10:21:06 UTC 2010

Crude oil traded near an 11-week high in New York as equity markets recovered and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said prices are too cheap.

Oil traded at about $79 a barrel before a government report due tomorrow, which analysts forecast will show that fuel supplies increased last week in the U.S. Goldman Sachs said futures prices are “significantly” below the level warranted by fundamentals, offering hedging opportunities for this year and next.

“We expect an average of $92 next year, so on a longer- term horizon prices are too cheap, but not far too cheap,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG in Vienna. “Crude faces some resistance around $80 as although fundamentals are slowly improving they’re not yet strong enough.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-as-equity-gains-compete-with-stockpiles.html

 

[Slipperz]

Any predictions for AUT shareprice tomorrow Condog or shall we leave it to beaver?

 

[Sean K]

Any predictions for AUT shareprice tomorrow Condog or shall we leave it to beaver?

condog is a longer term fundamentalist, does it matter?

I'm always curious about funamental valuists commentating on every movement of a stock intraday. Or, around abouts.

It doesn't add up.

Is that you condog?

A funadmentalist who disregards short term price action?

Or a what?

 

[condog]

I do both. On AUT im absolute fundamentalist, couldnt care less what tommorrow brings as i see the value underpinning it and driving price for some time.

But i also do my fair share of trading and short term analysis on other stocks. Funnily though i tend to trade and do TA on stocks that have good FA. But not on AUt, its imo a poor stock to trade, too tightly held, low volatility and to me a better buy and hold.

I think we are still seeing some selling pressure meeting the new buyers. That cant last forever, and when it dispates, imo we are likely to see a temporary sharper rise to a new level then we would have seen without the SPP or CR.

Interestingly it looks like the reduced selling pressure might almost correspond with the reserves upgrade?? The consolidation we have been and are seeing imo is cause imo by that trickle of sellers meeting demand.

Honestly the reserves upgrade is a huge unknown. If they come out with a 300% upgrade as Hartelys suggests, it will be interesting to see, just how much and how suddenly that affects share price. Certainly both broker reports will have to be re-calculated significantly as that massively affects the underlying assets on the balance sheet for anyone using reserves to value the stock.

Likewise any funds or big players that dont like speculating or predicting future values on projected cash flows, will have a sudden rise in value. So it could bring in a whole host of new buyers at a much higher platform. Its a bit of an unknown as its taking AUT into a new phase if it is a very significant upgrade.

these days with brokers and institutional traders / investors being "allegedly more accountable" in some of the firms thay have to justify each purchase and having a large addition to the balance sheet can be a very strong buy trigger if they are watching AUT closely.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

This combined with what looks like a bullish outlook on oil from my post above, and RIL looking for two more acquisitions, things are looking bright at present imo.

 

[condog]

North American Shales - the "hot" new E&P Play
July 27, 2010

http://www.glgroup.com/News/North-American-Shales---the--hot--new-EP-Play-49718.html

Oil Service Pricing On The Move
Posted: Jul 27, 2010
......This activity was led by continued good economics in many basins, or drilling by many operators to hold acreage before leases expire. This absorption of capacity has led to price increases that vary by product line and by basin, with liquids rich plays seeing the most cost pressure.........
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...cing-On-The-Move-COG-NFX-HAL-WFT-SLB0727.aspx

EOG Resources: Hedge the Negative, Invest in the Positive
by: Kurt Wulff July 27, 2010

Believing that a powerful stock market trend may be developing for independent natural gas and oil production companies in 2011-2012, we raise estimated Net Present Value (NPV) for buy-recommended EOG Resources (EOG) to $120 a share from $92. An impressive resource position in an oil prone zone of the Eagle Ford Shale of Texas helps justify a $7 billion increase in NPV split $5 billion in oil and $2 billion in natural gas. An active trend in large companies acquiring or joint-venturing with smaller producers alerts us to hidden value in unproven acreage. We saw similar signs exactly 32 years ago when we completed an analysis that placed acquisition values at 100% of future revenue, not discounted cash flow, from proven reserves. That surprising finding caught the early stages of a renewed cycle of resource appreciation. Those signs occurred in a backdrop of relatively gloomy economic and political expectations, similar to today.

Article continues - worth a read
Also mentions temporary dip in oil price.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216418-eog-resources-hedge-the-negative-invest-in-the-positive

 

[condog]

Recently Agent you speculated on here about AUT/hilcorp not having the ability to get rid of dry gas and pipeline capacities.

for me, i see oil pipeline companies not really driving hard into the region for a long time, so where is all the gas going to go?

pipelines are at capacity in the region.. and you cant just flare the gas off

Well i questioned Jon Stewart cEO of AUT

here is the part of his response that related to that question word for word.

With regard to your question, in short the speculation is nonsense. Field gas production continues to be exported directly to sales via pipelines that cross our acreage. Our Operator is advanced in plans and arrangements for field development including processing and transport of significantly increasing gas and liquids production. We will detail development activities as and when we consider it appropriate under our obligations to shareholders and our partners.

 

[condog]

Energy Report - 22 July 2010 -
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Why China is buying into North American shale gas
North America's shale-gas companies have two things China wants: expertise and LNG

CHINA wants more gas. North America has plenty of it. Chinese firms have cash. Drillers in North America need it. Those fundamentals, similar to the ones that have taken Chinese firms across the world in search of oil supplies, could transform the North American energy landscape.

The unconventional-oil sector offers a template for how this will happen. Rebuffed in 2005, when the US government blocked China National Offshore Oil Corporation's offer to buy Unocal (Chevron stepped in with a smaller, but more politically acceptable offer to buy the company), China's state-owned companies have since then steadily built up a position in the oil sands, soon to be the US' most important source of oil.

There, wariness of Chinese investors has switched to enthusiasm. Chinese investment has buoyed the oil sands, helping developers emerge from the global recession – and an oil-price collapse in 2008 ...

http://www.petroleum-economist.com/default.asp?Page=14&PUB=46&SID=726450&ISS=25655

 

[fflintoff]

Recently Agent you speculated on here about AUT/hilcorp not having the ability to get rid of dry gas and pipeline capacities.

Well i questioned Jon Stewart cEO of AUT

here is the part of his response that related to that question word for word.

Quote:
With regard to your question, in short the speculation is nonsense. Field gas production continues to be exported directly to sales via pipelines that cross our acreage. Our Operator is advanced in plans and arrangements for field development including processing and transport of significantly increasing gas and liquids production. We will detail development activities as and when we consider it appropriate under our obligations to shareholders and our partners.

Condog,
Thank you for your post which is very reassuring & squashes these unfounded rumours. As Tom Kelly of EME has mentioned several times never believe any of these type of posts on bulletin boards & always rely on company statements.

 

[nioka]

. As Tom Kelly of EME has mentioned several times never believe any of these type of posts on bulletin boards & always rely on company statements.

The problem with that proposition is the lack of information released by companies to shareholders. It leaves us to second guess. A lot of forums do come up with the news ahead of company announcements. It becomes a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff.