AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

and

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ki...-109-per-unit-2010-07-21?reflink=MW_news_stmp

-- Eagle Ford Gathering LLC, the KMP-Copano Energy joint venture that provides gathering, transportation and processing services to natural gas producers in the Eagle Ford Shale resource play in South Texas, recently entered into a long-term gas services agreement with SM Energy Company. SM Energy will commit up to 200,000 MMBtu per day of Eagle Ford Shale natural gas production over a 10-year term, and Eagle Ford Gathering will construct approximately 85 miles of 24- and 30-inch pipeline that is expected to begin service during the summer of 2011. KMP and Copano will invest approximately $137 million in phase one of the project and have committed 375,000 MMBtu per day of capacity to Eagle Ford Gathering for transportation on Kinder Morgan's intrastate pipeline and for processing at Copano's Houston Central plant.

 

[Kremmen]

Often a stock will be "propped" up using fake bids to attract buyers to the listed depth.... off screen sellers will sell into these punters and the dummy bids will be removed if other sellers start getting nr them.They will continue to do this at various levels and it is a daily occurence to create a buyer stack to sell into.

Also, this may appear to be the case even when it's not. I had a buy order in on EKA recently and prices started dropping, so I moved my bid down. I ended up moving it down 3 times and bought on the lowest price of the day. Not a dummy bid ... I just see no reason to pay more than I have to.

Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date.

I hope they'll just use direct deposit to our bank accounts (if entered into the registry), rather than waste a huge amount of time and money on the archaic process of sending out physical cheques and making us take them to the friggin' bank. (I emailed AUT to enquire about this, but they haven't replied.)

 

[condog]

I hope they'll just use direct deposit to our bank accounts (if entered into the registry), rather than waste a huge amount of time and money on the archaic process of sending out physical cheques and making us take them to the friggin' bank. (I emailed AUT to enquire about this, but they haven't replied.)

I emailed them and asked them to post cheques to get all you computer nerdfs off your chairs and get some exercise. lol

 

[Agentm]

Perhaps anyone questioning the legitimate development by pipeline developers might be well advised to do some research.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/en...tion-projects-2010-06-29?reflink=MW_news_stmp



The above article states current Eagleford gas production is at approx 250MMcfgpd with current pipeline capacity about to be at 1.5Billion cfgpd.

Not sure where your getting your figures from Agent, but a 5min research reveals a very different factual story to that your purporting of late.

it says it will have about 600 mmcfpd capacity upon completion in 2012.. and i certainly doesnt say karnes county has got the capacity of "250MMcfgpd with current pipeline capacity about to be at 1.5Billion cfgpd" that you quoted above..

Included in the planned construction, is an expansion of Enterprise's east-west rich gas mainline that will involve adding three additional pipeline segments totaling 168 miles. The first phase will involve the installation of 26 miles of 24-inch diameter pipeline extending the mainline to the far western reaches of the Eagle Ford Shale. The remaining 142 miles, to be built in two segments, will be comprised of 30-inch and 36-inch diameter pipelines that will serve the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford Shale. Upon completion, the Eagle Ford Shale rich gas mainline system and associated laterals will consist of approximately 300 miles of pipelines representing gathering and transportation capacity of more than 600 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d).



where does it say it will service hilcorp, and when has the jvp ever announced it will use that pipeline service? nor have they ever advised to what capacity they have had access to..

i certainly was asked not to gloss too much on that point.. but lets look at it anyway..

i am aware of eog and conoco having a deal going with a pipeline company which has set up office in karnes county..

you mention the oil pipeline, which is at capacity, will allow a few to have access to it.. so the for the likes of eog, with a big need to get the oil out into a pipeline, if they indeed have got access then that is a relief

i see absolute no evidence that hilcorp has any ability to connect to anything they develop.. but the article does say this

"The east end of Eagle Ford mainline will terminate at a new natural gas complex Enterprise plans to build that will feature multiple processing trains designed for deep ethane recovery and production of mixed NGLs in excess of 60,000 barrels per day (BPD). Following completion of these projects, which is expected in early 2012, Enterprise's Texas assets will have the capability to gather, transport and process almost 2.5 Bcf/d of natural gas and produce more than 150,000 BPD of NGLs."


so in 2012 there will be a lot more service available for gas transportation to those clients they will service.. whom ever they are..

 

[Joe Blow]

It looks like I need to remind everyone participating in this thread again: If you disagree with someone's analysis then attack the analysis, not them personally.

 

[condog]

You have misinterpreted me as expected.

Current production is 250mmcfgpd

Enterprise have just completed pipelines with capacity at 1.5B cfgpd.

I cant keep up agent, One minute your spruking Hartlesy reports up as overley conservative and you yourself said ADI was worth $1 plus, then next you are telling us Hartleys are overvaluing AUT and spruking to unsuspecting clients. Which way is it Agent. I cant follow or keep up with your logic.

One minute your telling us the Eagleford and the JVP is the best thing since sliced bread, the next your telling us hilcorp have no access to pipelines.

Im just trying to follow your logic.

 

[condog]

Enterprise announced an expansion of its network of crude oil and natural gas assets in South Texas as part of a letter of intent (LOI) signed with a major Eagle Ford Shale producer. According to the LOI, Enterprise would construct a 140-mile crude oil pipeline originating in Karnes County, Texas and connecting to the partnership's existing crude oil system in Austin County, Texas supported by a long-term transportation agreement. Enterprise is in discussions with a number of other producers to provide crude oil transportation services through additional connections to the pipeline. When completed, Enterprise's crude oil pipeline system will provide access to the refining markets in the Houston area, as well as the major storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma through the Enterprise-operated Seaway pipeline.

The capacity of the new crude oil pipeline will be sized to serve multiple producers as output in the Eagle Ford Shale region continues to increase. In addition to the pipeline infrastructure, the partnership is also constructing central delivery points in three locations along the new pipeline to receive crude oil from gathering lines and trucks. Two of the delivery points will be located in Karnes County, Texas, while the third will be built in Gonzales County, Texas. This crude oil pipeline expansion project is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2011.

 

[lemontree]

You have misinterpreted me as expected.

Current production is 250mmcfgpd

Enterprise have just completed pipelines with capacity at 1.5B cfgpd.

I cant keep up agent, One minute your spruking Hartlesy reports up as overley conservative and you yourself said ADI was worth $1 plus, then next you are telling us Hartleys are overvaluing AUT and spruking to unsuspecting clients. Which way is it Agent. I cant follow or keep up with your logic.

One minute your telling us the Eagleford and the JVP is the best thing since sliced bread, the next your telling us hilcorp have no access to pipelines.

Im just trying to follow your logic.

Refute agentm's analysis as much as you want on the forums, but i think its time you take your little bicker with him to private messages. Joe just issued a second warning just before your post!

 

[condog]

April 2007 -

they have already told the market they have commenced negotiations on the pipeline access, so you cant get any more bullish than that.

May 2010 -

i agree rambling on your point on pipeline companies

we know there is a pipeline company that recently set up offices in karnes county, and local talk is that they are not there for the cheap rent..

i am hearing conoco and eog are most likely to be on their client list, and perhaps a few others..

adi is central to the most leased county, karnes is nearly 100% leased atm.. no other counties match this level of leasing

its also noteworthy that petrohawk have spoken about the eagleford being more oily in the return as it trends east to west from lasalle and mcmullen, and we note the shorter laterals in kennedy and weston pretty easily match the petrohawk 5000 feet completions to the west. the morgan well imho is one of the highest stabilised ip flow rates i have seen in the region

i am of the belief that the adi acreages are right in the heart of a very sweet region, its attracting a lot of competitor attention, and i am not convinced hilcorp are walking from the jvp nor from these acreages at all. my belief is that hilcorp will continue to develop these acreages and produce from them.. its obvious by the way the sp is trending that its a story not believed by the shareholders keen to exit, but i think the current prices are attractive if you understand the possibility of hilcorp developing the ami eagleford is very likely. there is significant upside to adi if the punters exiting today are miscalculating this and i am more of the opinion that the recent broker reports talk of progressing this play is very much a realistic outcome..

all imho and dyor..

his is the new kennedy pipeline being put in as of yesterday, i am sure it already had one before..

in line with expectations (mine) the kennedy well continues to produce to sales.

lol

we all know that further production guidance will be provided once trends are established..

Then Todays post, i cant follow your logic agent, cant find where your getting this information, can you please confirm what your saying is true and provide some reference material?

 

[nunthewiser]

You have misinterpreted me as expected.

I cant keep up agent, One minute your spruking Hartlesy reports up as overley conservative and you yourself said ADI was worth $1 plus, then next you are telling us Hartleys are overvaluing AUT and spruking to unsuspecting clients. Which way is it Agent. I cant follow or keep up with your logic.

.

Refute agentm's analysis as much as you want on the forums, but i think its time you take your little bicker with him to private messages. Joe just issued a second warning just before your post!

TOTALLY AGREE!
these personal attacks are getting pathetic.

Agent M,s posts are highly informative and give a much needed view on various aspects on AUT that tend to be ignored or berated by others .

Mind you this whole thread been like that .. post an alternative viewpoint and suffer the wrath of personal attacks or mockery of your analysis.

I for one prefer to hear both sides to a story without all the niggling and mockery in between.

speaking of which ...... still no intrest in AUT on any volumes of note .... currently looks like a game of pass the parcel to my uninformed eye

Nulla ... see that 3 year chart you posted.... see the formation formed? sure looks like a bewt top formed but i could be looking at it wrong.

 

[condog]

AUT announcment out re meeting

All three motions passed.

Looking forward to T3, Kowalick and Reserves upgrade announcments.

Value being added is the most important thing.

 

[nulla nulla]

Nulla ... see that 3 year chart you posted.... see the formation formed? sure looks like a bewt top formed but i could be looking at it wrong.

Yup, a bubble forming even, and on an up day like today AUT finished on....$0.84. I'll wait just a little bit longer.
Still struggling to break above the resistance levels and the posts are starting to pre-empt the impact of (hopefully) further positive press releases.
At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect actual production volumes, sales and profits.

 

[condog]

At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect actual production volumes, sales and profits.

Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If you and nun did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.

 

[nunthewiser]

Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If you and nun did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.

I have not mentioned fundamentals here NOR do i care about them .

Since my posting here on this thread i have posted TECHNICAL and VOLUME analysis only .

please get your facts right if you want to imply that i have not researched AUT, i actually feel that it was another personal attack directed at me but i will let it slide this time

thankyou.

 

[le donk]

Wish i knew how to work this room Gero, got me beat so far, Anyways.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

[nioka]

i actually feel that it was another personal attack directed at me but i will let it slide this time
.

Personal attack???? I'm getting annoyed when there is someone getting their methods and posts queried that they take it as a personal attack. I attack the NOTION that anyone could have faith in buying and selling AUT based on the technicals when the fundamentals have made drastic changes, regardless of WHO said what.
Cant we have an active debate on the difference of opinion, a debate on how we see the stock, a debate on whether or not we see a price fall or a price hike, a debate on whether or not there is or is not a pipeline for delivery of the gas and oil, or ask someone to justify a post or whether or not the sky is about to fall in without it being taken as PERSONAL.

 

[nunthewiser]

Personal attack???? I'm getting annoyed when there is someone getting their methods and posts queried that they take it as a personal attack. I attack the NOTION that anyone could have faith in buying and selling AUT based on the technicals when the fundamentals have made drastic changes, regardless of WHO said what.
Cant we have an active debate on the difference of opinion, a debate on how we see the stock, a debate on whether or not we see a price fall or a price hike, a debate on whether or not there is or is not a pipeline for delivery of the gas and oil, or ask someone to justify a post or whether or not the sky is about to fall in without it being taken as PERSONAL.

Um excuse me nioka but others here have been more than happy to report posts due to every letter of the law yet CONSTANTLY attack posters on a PERSONAL basis rather than the actual argument .... I have not mentioned fundamentals here yet was attacked for not researching??? whats the go with that .my name needent have entered the equation but because he obviously has a PERSONAL problem with me it did.

anyhow my tech analysis still stands so far and PERSONALLY couldnt give a hoot if everyone here is against TECH anlaysis when it comes to their holds BUT my opinion wthout being attacked is still valid

thankyou

 

[condog]

Nun to set the record straight

Yes i reported 1, yes 1 of Nuns posts, where he claimed to have got advice from a broker called - his previous username.

Why because it was misleading and unethical.

So nun lets move on as nokia suggests

Nun it was not a personal attack, im questioning your methodology of using purely technical analysis on a stock that to this point in time has had limited traders, limited technical trends and has been fundamentally news driven.

Im questioning how you and nulla can possibly predict prices based on little to no understanding of the fundmentals of what is clearly a fundamental news driven stock.

When you make predicitions of 72c during a period of massivelyu over subscribed CR and then SPP at 75c, it just to me isnt logical. Why would it make sense for the price to drop to 72c when clearly mega people want it at 75c, when mega people bought at 78c to 84c over the last 60 days, when mega value has been added and continues to be added to the company, when oil prices have risne over 10% since Agent was claiming the where falling.

Nullas niavity on this stock was highlighted by his lack of understanding about cash flow in his post above. If he knew about the farmin arrangments he would clearly know their is a repayment period for hilcopr which is fast approaching a csh flow positive position. This period was always stated as Q4 2010.

Despite all the predictions the sky hasnt fallen in, AUT is still a fantastic stock with 2 rigs continmually drilling, fraccing occuring, soon to be cash flow positive, no debt, plenty of cash for its forward drilling program, two analystis with valuations almost 50% above current sp.

All looks great i must say myself.

 

[nunthewiser]

Nun to set the record straight

Yes i reported 1, yes 1 of Nuns posts, where he claimed to have got advice from a broker called - his previous username.

Why because it was misleading and unethical.

So nun lets move on as nokia suggests

Nun it was not a personal attack, im questioning your methodology of using purely technical analysis on a stock that to this point in time has had limited traders, limited technical trends and has been fundamentally news driven.

Im questioning how you and nulla can possibly predict prices based on little to no understanding of the fundmentals of what is clearly a fundamental news driven stock.

To set the record properly straight . at NO point did i mention a broker .... i take offence to this constant lie that i did.

i am happy to move on if you stop these personal attacks on various posters here that disagree with your " sure thing " postings.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and i have pointed out technical targets, support , resistance , fibonacci, trendlines, VOLUMES. it IS a valid method of analysis and used by many ppl around the world.

if you guys dont understand it thats fine , but please stop slagging off the opinions of those that do .

Moved on now and happy to post my TECHNICAL viewpoints on this stock as it arises.

Thankyou

 

[condog]

Nun i apologise if you did not use the word broker, but you impliesd it was some sort of expert freind, which was clearly dishonest and misleading as when i researched the name you gave it was your old username.

Yes technical analysis is widely known and used, no one at all is disputing that whatsoever.

But you took offence when you gave technical analysis we regarded as not having sufficient reason or explanation to make a big price call.

By all means post technical analysis, but be prepared to have it judged without thinking we are personally attacking you.

I post relentless volumes of calculations that are questioned by many on here and i dont resort to name calling to resolve it.

Go back you will see many have stated this is overly optimistic or pesimistic and we have had amicable discussions about the stock.

So please ddo continue posting, but if making huge price calls expect significant cross examination the same as i do when im apparently being optimistic.

Despite all the predictions AUT is still a fantastic stock with 2 rigs continmually drilling, fraccing occuring, soon to be cash flow positive, no debt, plenty of cash for its forward drilling program, two analystis with valuations almost 50% above current sp.

All looks great i must say myself.