AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

Lets get this baby focused back on AUT.

Im hoping for a Morgan announcment asap.

When AUT whre quizzed on 30day results potentially failing to meet ASX disclore rules , and he said the focus would be on 30 day results, and that they where not stating they would not release IP results.

So lets hope we keep getting IP rates on these fracs as well. If so Morgan must be surely overdue now.

 

[condog]

Looks like news might be filtering out on Morgan flows?

I bought some as i offloaded AAM. But looks to be a step up in actrion

 

[AngusSmart]

Nice up today already eh condog!!

Cant wait for the actual news to hit!! i bought a pretty big packet on friday, well big for me anyway! sounds like you guys have a bit more invested in this!

still going to hold my small packet of Aam for a while.. see what happens there.

 

[condog]

News out Morgan flowing to sales. They hope to give numbers later in the week once stabilised.

Easily progressing well.

All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker.

 

[estseon]

"All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker"

So should Rancho, I reckon.

Easley may be disappointing compared to those 2. It's only 3,000ft vs 5,000ft and it may be gassier.

Could be a bumpy ride over the next month or so but the trend can only go one way if they're good.

 

[condog]

"All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker"

So should Rancho, I reckon.

Easley may be disappointing compared to those 2. It's only 3,000ft vs 5,000ft and it may be gassier.

Could be a bumpy ride over the next month or so but the trend can only go one way if they're good.

Yeh it would seem we are still very cheap and opportunistic for anyone who knows the game. I need to make at least January before any big CGT events are avoided, so i hope we run hard and fast. I sustpect a 20c run followed by a 4-8c retrace might be the pattern for a while. I suspect Morgan is being factored in by some yesterday. But the market will surely be very excited if the flows are what im anticipating, with a puulback before the easily announcment. Surely Easily is known by the big players to be a softer result. But non-the-less it will still add several $M revenue.

Exciting times and very glad to be a holder.

 

[condog]

Relevant :

In the South Texas Eagle Ford where EOG holds 505,000 net acres in the mature oil window, the Harper Unit #4H was completed to sales in Karnes County. The well, the 17th that EOG has drilled across a six-county area in the play, began production at a rate of 602 Bopd with 650 thousand cubic feet per day of natural gas. EOG has 100 percent working interest in the well. To date, EOG's initial production results in the play are consistent with the average well commencing production at an approximate 800 Bopd rate. EOG is operating a six-rig drilling program in the Eagle Ford and plans to significantly increase production in 2011

From:
Google news today

 

[Sharejon]

Condog I'm nowhere near as knowledgable of the Eagle Ford fields as you are, so mind giving me/us your interpretation on the relevance of that. Of course there is relevance (location.....) but I'm not exactly sure about the meaning of such a statement.

 

[estseon]

Sharejon,

sorry to butt in.

I like:

"Karnes county" nearby - same county

IP results are consistent - across 6 counties for the play - mature oil window - average IP well below Kennedy - a half-well - and we're in the over-pressured condensate rich window.

There are some plays where you drill a well and find non-commercial traces. Not on sugarloaf nor, it would seem, anywhere on the Eagleford play. But we have the Austin chalks overlay as well - don't know if EOG does.

AUT has the Longhorn acreage being currently drilled. How will it turn out? It's surrounded by producing wells - that must de-risk it. Anyway, Hilcorp wouldn't be intending to frac if they were considered to be non-commercial.

But everyone will read news their own way. You might like different aspects of that news.

 

[condog]

Thats about it in a nutshell.

Consistent positive production results with liquids in surrounding acerages, very much de-risks our project. Those flows are in fact lower then ours but still fantastic in anyones language. If Turner 1,2,3 flow like that with our higher percentage interests, thats some very serious cash flow and they will be payed of very quick indeed.

 

[Agentm]

2% drop in the dow..

these are the best days..

with any luck the jvp partners wont hold up and the some mighty cheap shares come into play..

good luck to all sellers!

 

[condog]

2% drop in the dow..

these are the best days..

with any luck the jvp partners wont hold up and the some mighty cheap shares come into play..

good luck to all sellers!

tongue in cheak - im all full up ...

stocks like these generally sustain or hold anyway, given peoples desperation to find a safehaven is case they are wrong.

 

[condog]

Holy !@#!@#!@!@#%!%

Look at Morgan rates 2000+ Bocpd + 5.6mmcfgpd (1200 would have been fantastic, 2000 is rediculous)

Easely 780 bocpd + 6.8mmcfgpd ( as expected i was hoping 500-800) so its good.

Imagine when Rancho and Turnbulls are online. Its only Ip's but wow, they are fantastic

Not only that but how fast was Easely done, .

Agent they must be all over Rancho and trunbulls fraccing by now at that rate.

 

[adobee]

looks like it could be an interesting morning ... i might take another look at EKA dependent on the reaction of the market and how it opens. ..

 

[condog]

Morgan at 31mmcfgpd equivelent is basically 3x Kennedy and Weston rates. Its only an IP which should drop, but even then it should be 2.5+ times. At that rate this will be repaid extremely fast and will surely fast track or fund additional future wells.

If Rancho and the Turnbull 1, 2, 3 and Ipenema wells are anything close to this then i think we might see rolling valuation upgrades by the analysts.

 

[condog]

Right now AUT green amongst a sea of red

More importantly with the current flow rates across Kennedy, Weston, Morgan and Easely, once hilcopr is paid back will fund approx one new well from cash flow every 30 days. Thats amazing given where we where 3 months ago.

If Rancho and the Turnbulls are good it looks like we might be funding two wells every 30 days from cash flow.

 

[Sdajii]

Welcome Sdaji to the AUT holders' club!

Just look at today's announcement and the fact that I could pick them up for less today than I could have yesterday, and you can understand why! Thank you to whoever decided to sell

 

[condog]

Welcome Sdaji to the AUT holders' club!

Just look at today's announcement and the fact that I could pick them up for less today than I could have yesterday, and you can understand why! Thank you to whoever decided to sell

Wellcome Sdaji - you must be grinning from ear to ear buying at todays price with those Morgan flow rates on deck.

 

[Sharejon]

I'm guessing alot of the reason as to why AUT went down was due to shareholders trading between AUT/ADI and EKA, with AUT being sold to buy shares in EKA/ADI considering AUT has been the stronger performer in recent times.

It seems the latest announcement from the Morgan#1H well was a very positive announcement for the company and I'm expecting a quick bounce back up, unless there is something i'm unaware of.

 

[condog]

I'm guessing alot of the reason as to why AUT went down was due to shareholders trading between AUT/ADI and EKA, with AUT being sold to buy shares in EKA/ADI considering AUT has been the stronger performer in recent times.

It seems the latest announcement from the Morgan#1H well was a very positive announcement for the company and I'm expecting a quick bounce back up, unless there is something i'm unaware of.

The markets was in a bad mood today, but im pretty confident in the short term we will see a big bounce. All opinion of course.