AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
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Weston announcment must be absolutely imminent by now...... if it ads as much value to the company as Kennedy, expect AUT to be bumping around the 55c mark some time in the next month , straight on the back of that within a few weeks will hopefully be easely which is IMO the big one, should add that much value again.......
Morgan would then be around say 50-70 days from now and Rancho on the abck of that.....at say 60 -90 days possibly earlier..... so a very interesting 3 months for AUT, EKA and ADI in the Joint Venture...
AUT hit new 12 mth high as did all the JVP's yesterday on anticipation / speculation of a weston announcment, so stay tuned for more action in comeing days, and the announcment..... Kennedy flowed at 10mmcfd on 8 stages so hopefully Weston can co 15+mmcfd
AUT share of that is 20%....$15,000+ gross per day = $5.5M+ pa. gross, add easly, morgan and ranch to that and you might start to see why its rising so quickly....up 48% in 2 months so far...
Morgan would then be around say 50-70 days from now and Rancho on the abck of that.....at say 60 -90 days possibly earlier..... so a very interesting 3 months for AUT, EKA and ADI in the Joint Venture...
AUT hit new 12 mth high as did all the JVP's yesterday on anticipation / speculation of a weston announcment, so stay tuned for more action in comeing days, and the announcment..... Kennedy flowed at 10mmcfd on 8 stages so hopefully Weston can co 15+mmcfd
AUT share of that is 20%....$15,000+ gross per day = $5.5M+ pa. gross, add easly, morgan and ranch to that and you might start to see why its rising so quickly....up 48% in 2 months so far...
This is really rough but worth considering...
AUT currently priced at yesterdays high of 44.5c
After Kowalick and on the anticipation of Kennedy it was priced at roughly 30c
Thats an increase of 48%
Based on that its now anticipating two well results, Easly and Weston
IMO all three are already massively underpriced based on anticipated results....
If those two come through with say equivelent to Kennedy and we are anticipating two more well announcments eg Morgan and Rancho one could expect a similar increase in value, possibly slightly more on the back of two wells equal to or better then KEnnedy....
So base case scenario IMO in say 60 days is 148%* 44.5 = New High of 65c...
Warning - all other factors being equal - eg oil prices, exchange rates, market sentiment etc.....Its a very crude projection, not a valuations so dont use it as such..... ASF and I take no responsibility for this crude amatuer projection...DYOR and do not make decisions based on it...learn from it or discuss it only....
AUT currently priced at yesterdays high of 44.5c
After Kowalick and on the anticipation of Kennedy it was priced at roughly 30c
Thats an increase of 48%
Based on that its now anticipating two well results, Easly and Weston
IMO all three are already massively underpriced based on anticipated results....
If those two come through with say equivelent to Kennedy and we are anticipating two more well announcments eg Morgan and Rancho one could expect a similar increase in value, possibly slightly more on the back of two wells equal to or better then KEnnedy....
So base case scenario IMO in say 60 days is 148%* 44.5 = New High of 65c...
Warning - all other factors being equal - eg oil prices, exchange rates, market sentiment etc.....Its a very crude projection, not a valuations so dont use it as such..... ASF and I take no responsibility for this crude amatuer projection...DYOR and do not make decisions based on it...learn from it or discuss it only....
ADI ripped out a new 52 week high again today....AUT almost got there again.... IMO anyone selling right now either desperately needs the money or is about to miss the boat....
With two well announcments absolutely imminent and two more wells to start on the back of them ....upside potential is rediculous....on all three JVP's ...
This is opinion only, DYOR
With two well announcments absolutely imminent and two more wells to start on the back of them ....upside potential is rediculous....on all three JVP's ...
This is opinion only, DYOR
The Eagle Ford is amazingly sought after right now, making AU?T a very hot prospect not only with is current wells coming online and being drilled and planned through JV's, but with its acerage.
Chesapeake amongst other i and other have posted in the ADI thread is chacing acerage at an amazing rate.
Chesapeake amongst other i and other have posted in the ADI thread is chacing acerage at an amazing rate.
This is a staggering acquisition and certainly now ranks up there as one of the biggest , and one of the quickest.
By my calcs Easily is around 32 days since spudded. On my calcs expect updates on frac stages soon and completion in around 2 weeks. Could be wrong, but that will be reasonably close.
Easly should be the most productive so far and on top of anticipate good Weston results on monday might possibly begin to add major value to AUT.
Easly should be the most productive so far and on top of anticipate good Weston results on monday might possibly begin to add major value to AUT.
AUT - posted a new new high this morning at 47c on speculation about Weston flow data.....
Very encouraging for all JV AMI partenrs at present.
900 units @ 47c is hardly much to get excited about but things do look positive and heading in the right direction.
Thats plain cynical. but funny.
Which broker are you expecting to put out a report. I noticed H's reckon they will update the ADI one soon. But whos got one on AUT. Ive run my calcs and they are pretty impressive assumming Weston is good and others come on line..
Thats irrellevant is comfortably holding 46c, got to 47c new high up from 44.5c. Plenty of buyers. And good outlook... not sure what your getting at.....but
anywayI bought most mine around 30c so doing quiet nicely on this one. But dont expect to be seeling this in the short or medium term.
Excellent results out for Weston today. Totally overlooked by market. Should improve with tubing in a few weeks. Easley announcments soonish. Plus possibly a morgan and ranch timeline.
Longhorn and Ipanema not to far off as well. AUT free carried for all.
Longhorn and Ipanema not to far off as well. AUT free carried for all.
Sean K
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condog, I'd really like to see a summary of your holdings and your trades. You seem to have quite a few irons in the fire. I've previously recorded all buys and sells in my ASF Blog too keep people informed of what I am ramping and my own personal holdings and action. I'm out of the market taking a break so 100% cash now and nothing to report. Would like to see a 'condog blog' if you had the time, and were game. Cheers.
3rd March 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas ("Aurora") is pleased to provide the following update to the market on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Morgan #1H - Aurora has been advised by the operator Hilcorp Energy ("Hilcorp") that the second farm in well within the Sugarloaf AMI, the Morgan #1H well, was spudded on Friday, 26th February (US CST). The well is located approximately 5 km North West of the Easley #1H well and is expected to take approximately 6 weeks to drill to TD. The well design includes a vertical pilot hole prior to drilling a horizontal section that will access both the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford horizons following fracture stimulation.
Easley #1H - As at 0730 hrs on 2 March 2010 (US CST) the well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,535 ft (MD) with approximately 2,800 ft of horizontal section now having been drilled within the reservoir. Elevated gas readings have been observed since penetrating the reservoir.
Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H - Both wells continue to produce to sales in line with expectation. Production tubing has yet to be installed in either well and further updates on production rates will be provided once this has occurred and stable rates have been established.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Adelphi (ASX:ADI) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 12.5% (pre-farmout)
Aurora also participates as a 50% WI holder in a larger area made up of an additional ~ 27,000 acres within the Sugarkane Field adjacent to Sugarloaf. Aurora is the only listed participant in these areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman
Technical information contained in this report in relation to the Sugarloaf project and Sugarkane field was compiled by Aurora from information provided by the project operator and reviewed by I L Lusted, BSc (Hons), SPE, a Director of Aurora who has had more than 15 years experience in the practice of petroleum engineering. Mr. Lusted consents to the inclusion in this report of the information in the form and context in which it appears.
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas ("Aurora") is pleased to provide the following update to the market on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Morgan #1H - Aurora has been advised by the operator Hilcorp Energy ("Hilcorp") that the second farm in well within the Sugarloaf AMI, the Morgan #1H well, was spudded on Friday, 26th February (US CST). The well is located approximately 5 km North West of the Easley #1H well and is expected to take approximately 6 weeks to drill to TD. The well design includes a vertical pilot hole prior to drilling a horizontal section that will access both the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford horizons following fracture stimulation.
Easley #1H - As at 0730 hrs on 2 March 2010 (US CST) the well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,535 ft (MD) with approximately 2,800 ft of horizontal section now having been drilled within the reservoir. Elevated gas readings have been observed since penetrating the reservoir.
Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H - Both wells continue to produce to sales in line with expectation. Production tubing has yet to be installed in either well and further updates on production rates will be provided once this has occurred and stable rates have been established.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Adelphi (ASX:ADI) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 12.5% (pre-farmout)
Aurora also participates as a 50% WI holder in a larger area made up of an additional ~ 27,000 acres within the Sugarkane Field adjacent to Sugarloaf. Aurora is the only listed participant in these areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman
Technical information contained in this report in relation to the Sugarloaf project and Sugarkane field was compiled by Aurora from information provided by the project operator and reviewed by I L Lusted, BSc (Hons), SPE, a Director of Aurora who has had more than 15 years experience in the practice of petroleum engineering. Mr. Lusted consents to the inclusion in this report of the information in the form and context in which it appears.
Yep good news all round
Morgan started, Easely half the horizontal done, Kennedy and Weston still flowing via casing to sales, neither on tubing.
4 more wells for AUT on Lh and Ipnm
All looking very good indeed. Cannot believe they didnt all add 10-20% or more today on that news. Morgan alone and Easely so close are good signs.
Morgan started, Easely half the horizontal done, Kennedy and Weston still flowing via casing to sales, neither on tubing.
4 more wells for AUT on Lh and Ipnm
All looking very good indeed. Cannot believe they didnt all add 10-20% or more today on that news. Morgan alone and Easely so close are good signs.
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good to see condog was quick to reply to your post kennas ps good to see someone keeping it real amid all the noise out there
