Roulette: odds, chances, myths and fact

[brty]

Coming out of left field here, but imagine the following...

The roulette wheel is partitioned EXACTLY, the ball is PERFECTLY spherical. The croupier spins the wheel EXACTLY the same speed every time. The ball is released at EXACTLY the same speed and place relative to the numbers every time. The air pressure, temperature and movement are EXACTLY the same every roll. The......

I hope you get the picture, everything the same every spin, should theoretically produce the same number coming up, every time.

Because things are not the same, and we have no way of calculating all the possible variations, we mistakenly call it random, when it is most likely not.

brty

 

[wayneL]

Coming out of left field here, but imagine the following...

The roulette wheel is partitioned EXACTLY, the ball is PERFECTLY spherical. The croupier spins the wheel EXACTLY the same speed every time. The ball is released at EXACTLY the same speed and place relative to the numbers every time. The air pressure, temperature and movement are EXACTLY the same every roll. The......

I hope you get the picture, everything the same every spin, should theoretically produce the same number coming up, every time.

Because things are not the same, and we have no way of calculating all the possible variations, we mistakenly call it random, when it is most likely not.

brty

Could you expand on your thoughts?

 

[brty]

Wayne,

Could you expand on your thoughts?

Which bit??

The first part... A mathematician may think that a million spins with everything the same will result in a perfect spread of numbers, ie a 2.7027027% for each of 37 possibilities. I put forward the argument that if everything was the same, as in exactly, then the same number should come up a million times in a row.

The second part... Because the same number does not always come up, there are biases that prevent it from happening. Just because we cannot calculate all the variances does not make something random.

Because something is not random, then it should be possible to work out a methodology to win at the game. However as each croupier is a variable as well as their spins, and each table, wheel and ball have variances, then the constant changing around a casino will make a methodology harder to profit from. (you need the same croupier at the same table as observed previously to have a hope)

If you could get enough data about how each croupier went at each different table, there could be something there to narrow the odds. You would then know what types of bets work best in each situation and could probably rank performances at different tables etc.

Whether it overcomes the house odds is a different question.

Good luck in trying to get the data.

brty

 

[wayneL]

I get what your saying, but I don't see how that overcomes the randomness of *outcomes*.

Would could make the same argument about any game where inputs (i.e. the variables of human input and other physical factors) are not identical and are infinitely... variable.

E.g, coin tossing/two up, craps, the big wheel etc.

Theoretical and actual expectancy can be very different in practice, until the number of iterations eventually cause the law of averages to apply.

Essentially we have a chaotic system. All inputs cannot be known/measured.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Started my own system once, set it up with cards and 5c pieces - I called it blind martingale after I found out what martingale is, doesn't really work but I wish it did. Had several goes thinking I would take the casino to the cleaners but eventually figured the odds can not be beaten by a betting pattern alone.

 

[2020hindsight]

OMG!!

:topic
TH, that meter of yours reads "Creditability"..
I was staring at it - thinking that's surely a typo, but turns out that it makes sense ...

Amongst it's meanings ...
"Deserving of praise: creditable effort on the essay.
Worthy of belief: a creditable story. "

Live and learn

PS Either way - there's no way I'm gonna try to get rich at the roulette wheel.

Explod, we should give you a roulette wheel for Xmas, and when you can prove that you can land the ball where you predict - to the point of being reliably profitable (over two sets of 100,000 rolls whatever) - then I for one might start to be convinced. After that you have to show us your betting records when a hostile croupier is rolling - and is intentionally "mixing it up"

Biased wheels: Section betting In 1982, several casinos in England began to lose large sums of money at their roulette tables to teams of gamblers from the USA. Upon investigation by the police, it was discovered they were using a legal system of biased wheel-section betting. As a result of this, the English roulette wheel manufacturer John Huxley manufactured a roulette wheel to counter-act the problem.

The new wheel, designed by George Melas, was called "low profile" because the pockets had been drastically reduced in depth, and various other design modifications caused the ball to descend in a gradual approach to the pocket area. In 1986, when a professional gambling team headed by Billy Walters won $3.8 million using the system on an old wheel at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City, every casino in the world took notice, and within one year had switched to the new "low profile" wheel.

...
Casinos are aware of players who try and mechanically exploit roulette wheels and take protective measures by rotating wheels, changing dealers, and switching roulette ball sizes, making mechanical strategies virtually impossible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette

 

[brty]

Law of averages and things like coin toss are often used in the same sentences.

On the net you get this type of info about coin tosses.....

Another example is the flip of a coin. Given repeated flips of a fair coin, the frequency of heads (or tails) will increasingly approach 50% over a large number of trials. Almost surely the absolute (nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the number of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to number of flips will approach zero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number of flips, as the number of flips grows.

This type of stuff is mathematical theory and utter garbage. If there was an equal weighting to an infinite number of variables, then the theory might be true. However the variables are not equally distributed with some overcoming any force implied by others.

Hmmm, perhaps an example is needed.

I can "toss" a coin (an Aussie 20c) so that it comes up heads every time. I can do it because I can control some elements of the result. I can also "toss" the same coin, starting the same way as before (ie tails facing up) and get tails nearly every time, by changing one variable.

Anyone can try this by taking a coin and placing it on their bent index finger tails up. Very gently use your thumb to "toss" the coin so that it does a 180 degree "spin" and land it in your other hand at about 1 inch below. With a few seconds practise you get heads every time. By dropping your other hand to about 4 inches below the coin, you allow the coin to do a full 360 degree rotation and the result is tails nearly all the time.
There is nothing random here.

With enough practise, anybody could get a coin to spin 5 or 6 times and come up with the same result. Like wise with 10 to 15 spins, etc. Of course the greater the number of spins, the higher into the air the "toss" goes, the harder the result is to control, so more and more 'errors' are likely. The results though are still not random, just harder to predict.

Bringing this back to the topic of roulette, then the variables that we have no control over tend to make the results appear random, whereas some of the variables may be making certain outcomes happen disproportionately.

Because most of the players believe in the law of averages, and a return to the mean (ie random probability theory) if a run of lows occur they bet high, if a run of reds occur, they bet black.

Personally , I think the best game at the casino is to enjoy the subsidised drinks and watch others drop hundreds of dollars, without putting my hand in my pocket.

brty

 

[explod]

Ah, the weekend, time to see the ball roll.

Bringing this back to the topic of roulette, then the variables that we have no control over tend to make the results appear random, whereas some of the variables may be making certain outcomes happen disproportionately.

Because most of the players believe in the law of averages, and a return to the mean (ie random probability theory) if a run of lows occur they bet high, if a run of reds occur, they bet black.

Yes bty agree. I have found roulette not to be random and the following simple game is worth trying:

A croupier at Crown, would you believe, said to me a few years ago, "When I retire I know that I can always win at this game, you just have to look at where the dealer is hitting, have a look, I tend to play tennis, hit across the wheel..." and he was, roughly between the 22 and 26 (top left) and 10 to the six (bottom right) I have followed this and won well with it when it appears. As I have said in previous posts, you have to chart a few dealers to find it but well worth the effort.

I plot 30 spins out on thier card with the wheel on it ( fold the card under so that you have the underside give you a white area right round) and for each hit draw a dot. I usually put a dot for left spin and small cross for right spins and if one or the other is stronger play that. On the rapid (with live wheel and dealer) you can set the prime pockets and keep hitting reset. I allways stop if there a two losses in a row.

Cheers explod

 

[andione1983]

i follow this advice, and yes you will always win if you keep 2.5x your money each time you miss your color.

you know in roulette you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet $1 on black and it goes black you win $1 but if it goes red you loose your $1.

So I found a way you can win everytime:



bet $1 on black if it goes black you win $1



now again bet $1 on black, if it goes red bet $3 on black, if it goes red again bet $8 on black, if red again bet $20 on black, red again bet $52 on black (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5), if now is black you win $52 so you have $104 and you bet:



$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84 So you just won $20



now when you won you start with $1 on blacks again etc etc. its always bound to go black eventually (it`s 50/50) so that way you eventually always win. But there`s a catch. If you start winning too much (like $1000 a day) casino will finally notice something and can ban you. I was banned once on royal casino. So don`t be too greedy and don`t win more then $200 a day and you can do it for years. I think bigger casinos know that trick so I play for real money on smaller ones, right now I play on lucky june casino: rabbit-jackpot.net for more then 3 months, I win $50-$200 a day and my account still works. You`ll find roulette there when you log in go to "specialty games" - "american roulette".

(this is not my advice, something a mate sent to me so don't take it as gospel but i went and had a play using this theory, and found it to work, and if i was patient enough i coulp make $50.00AU an hour)

 

[2020hindsight]

jeez, I hope noone writing or reading this stuff seriously thinks they will win in the end.
c'mon fellas - you will go broke with these theories.
and the casino will still be there.

THe classic was the Crown Casino (Melb) - lady discovered her husband had a betting problem the hard way - like - he shot himself on their front lawn rather than fess up to her that he'd lost all their money and the house etc.

All she had were some vouchers from the casino for various shopping chains . They declined saying " sorry those are in your husband's name and are non-transferable".

They wouldn't even help her with the cost of the funeral.

PS - andione, as for the doubling up system mentioned there, run 100,000 rolls in that simulator (post #2) - and see just how big your bank has to be - eg to cover a string of losses !

 

[2020hindsight]

eg from post #30 :-
#8 on one occasion had 4 consecutive wins, but also came up for 350 consecutive losses ! etc etc

whether you bet on single numbers or columns or colours - it's the same rule - the bank ends up (averaged) with 1 in every 37 dollars you bet

 

[nathanblack]

eg from post #30 :-
#8 on one occasion had 4 consecutive wins, but also came up for 350 consecutive losses ! etc etc

whether you bet on single numbers or columns or colours - it's the same rule - the bank ends up (averaged) with 1 in every 37 dollars you bet

its the "0" that gives the house an advantage, its not black/red, odd/even,high/low. all the outside bets lose (columns, etc).

my mate worked at crown for years. he was taught to accuractely land the ball in any quaddrant he wanted, more specifically he could get the ball to land on his chosen number or 2 numbers eitherside, with 90% success.

dealers are told to look for large bets on single numbers and avoid that result. obviously the croupier needs to quickly sum up the bets and decide the worst outcome for the house and even then some bets are placed after the spin has started.

betting on the best outcome for the house isnt a good option because the croupier doesnt have time to calculate that, he has just enough time to see an obvious bad result to avoid.

the safest bet is outside bets because, he can only guarantee a particular quadrant which will have equal representation of red/black/odd/even. that is why the wheel isnt sequential numbers 1-36, to break up each quadrant.

its impossible to exploit the croupier unless you know which quadrant he is striving for. there was a case at crown a few years ago where a croupier helped his gay lover win by spinning like this.

 

[Wagyu]

i follow this advice, and yes you will always win if you keep 2.5x your money each time you miss your color.

you know in roulette you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet $1 on black and it goes black you win $1 but if it goes red you loose your $1.

So I found a way you can win everytime:



bet $1 on black if it goes black you win $1



now again bet $1 on black, if it goes red bet $3 on black, if it goes red again bet $8 on black, if red again bet $20 on black, red again bet $52 on black (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5), if now is black you win $52 so you have $104 and you bet:



$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84 So you just won $20



now when you won you start with $1 on blacks again etc etc. its always bound to go black eventually (it`s 50/50) so that way you eventually always win. But there`s a catch. If you start winning too much (like $1000 a day) casino will finally notice something and can ban you. I was banned once on royal casino. So don`t be too greedy and don`t win more then $200 a day and you can do it for years. I think bigger casinos know that trick so I play for real money on smaller ones, right now I play on lucky june casino: rabbit-jackpot.net for more then 3 months, I win $50-$200 a day and my account still works. You`ll find roulette there when you log in go to "specialty games" - "american roulette".

(this is not my advice, something a mate sent to me so don't take it as gospel but i went and had a play using this theory, and found it to work, and if i was patient enough i coulp make $50.00AU an hour)

6 consecutve losses with a table limit of $250 (even chance betting) you are down $200+ with no opportunity to get your money back, 7 consecutive losses with a table limit of $500 (even chance betting) puts you at $500+ down with no opportunity to get your money back.

Find a new friend?

 

[Wagyu]

its the "0" that gives the house an advantage, its not black/red, odd/even,high/low. all the outside bets lose (columns, etc).

my mate worked at crown for years. he was taught to accuractely land the ball in any quaddrant he wanted, more specifically he could get the ball to land on his chosen number or 2 numbers eitherside, with 90% success.

dealers are told to look for large bets on single numbers and avoid that result. obviously the croupier needs to quickly sum up the bets and decide the worst outcome for the house and even then some bets are placed after the spin has started.

betting on the best outcome for the house isnt a good option because the croupier doesnt have time to calculate that, he has just enough time to see an obvious bad result to avoid.

the safest bet is outside bets because, he can only guarantee a particular quadrant which will have equal representation of red/black/odd/even. that is why the wheel isnt sequential numbers 1-36, to break up each quadrant.

its impossible to exploit the croupier unless you know which quadrant he is striving for. there was a case at crown a few years ago where a croupier helped his gay lover win by spinning like this.

Are you serious? "look for large bets and avoid that result"? be practical champ!

"the croupier needs to sum up the bets and decisde the worst outcome for the house"? oh please!

And "quadrants"?. the zero section comprises of 17 numbers out of a total of 37 (not 36 as you have quoted). Any knucklehead dealer can say " I'll land the ball in the zero section", it's half the wheel the odds are on his side to start. It takes a pelican like yourself to believe him.

And "guarantee"?, the dealer can't guarantee jack-****. If you want a guarantee, go and buy a toaster.

What happens when your mate works on the "Rapid Roulette" game? (terminal betting on screen with a live dealer). there is no bets for the dealer to look at, nothing! he's just waiting for the ball to drop and then to confirm the winning number in the system.

A lot of roulette dealers are self fulfilling wankers, and your mate is not exempt.

Wise up sunshine.

 

[Wagyu]

Law of averages and things like coin toss are often used in the same sentences.


Personally , I think the best game at the casino is to enjoy the subsidised drinks and watch others drop hundreds of dollars, without putting my hand in my pocket.

brty

brty, have a drink for me.

 

[2020hindsight]

I believe you and I are thinking the same way Wagyu.
Just for fun I studied a roulette table for 5 minutes yesterday , and put on one bet!.
and the ball came down 180 degrees exactly from where it was supposed to lol.

:topic btw, every time I see your avatar it reminds me of this one we bred on the farm - United Nations grainfed - cheers.

 

[2020hindsight]

ps - btw, when I say we're thinking the same way - I don't really see the need to insult the other posters (nb, or andione) or their friends.

Actually there was a young Chinese croupier rolling last night, and I asked her could she land it on a number - she replied that she could sometimes get it in a quadrant if she was lucky - so maybe there's a smidgeon of truth in this theory - then again - she's gotta get it in some quadrant somewhere lol. - and statistically, she'll get it right occasinally

Personally, watching that ball hit those miriad deflectors etc - I'd be betting that she gets it in the right quadrant one time in four

 

[explod]

2020hindsight ... Personally, watching that ball hit those miriad deflectors etc - I'd be betting that she gets it in the right quadrant one time in four

I have done a lot of watching and measuring. If your interest is sufficient and put in the time you will find that experienced shooters/dealers/croupiers can put into any quadrant.

 

[2020hindsight]

I have done a lot of watching and measuring. If your interest is sufficient and put in the time you will find that experienced shooters/dealers/croupiers can put into any quadrant.

fair enuf m8 - but I won;t be joining you
(I only put that one bet on because the bludy craps table was closed - temporarily / permanently who knows - the casinos prefer to make their money fast at the roulette wheels ).

PS 25% of those polled resemble a quarter of the population. (if you get my drift / ghist)

 

[explod]

my mate worked at crown for years. he was taught to accuractely land the ball in any quaddrant he wanted, more specifically he could get the ball to land on his chosen number or 2 numbers eitherside, with 90% success.

dealers are told to look for large bets on single numbers and avoid that result. obviously the croupier needs to quickly sum up the bets and decide the worst outcome for the house and even then some bets are placed after the spin has started.

betting on the best outcome for the house isnt a good option because the croupier doesnt have time to calculate that, he has just enough time to see an obvious bad result to avoid.

the safest bet is outside bets because, he can only guarantee a particular quadrant which will have equal representation of red/black/odd/even. that is why the wheel isnt sequential numbers 1-36, to break up each quadrant.

its impossible to exploit the croupier unless you know which quadrant he is striving for. there was a case at crown a few years ago where a croupier helped his gay lover win by spinning like this.

What you say above is correct IMV On busy tables I often cover areas where there a few chips with splits and corners (one chip covers four numbers) 70% strike rate covering about 1/3rd of the wheel