The Exceptional Wealth Accumulation Ideas and Thinking Thread

[tech/a]

My views on Business Property and in regard to this topic of Trading are I have found more radical than most.

My own view is that a very high ratio of wealth accumulators will operate within their comfort zone---which is a great deal lower than even they expect. Warm and fuzzy is good but you wont see EXCEPTIONAL results.

EXCEPTIONAL results only show themselves when there is EXCEPTIONAL thinking.

(1) We had a 7 yrs bull run and while many took advantage of it many have lost any advantage they had accumulated. Many simply watched!

(2) We had a 7 yr property boom and while many picked up "A" single investment property few took advantage of this EXCEPTIONAL opportunity in an EXCEPTIONAL WAY. Many simply watched

(3) We have seen an EXCEPTIONAL down turn well documented and shifting indexes by 40-50% but few have taken advantage of it. Many simply watched.

(4) We have seen OIL trade from $25 a barrel to $140 a barrel and back to $50 a barrel Many simply watched.

(5) We have seen gold traded from $270 an ounce to $1000 an ounce and many simply watched.

(6) We have seen the AUD trade from 50c to 90c and we pretty well watched.

I too have been one who has watched SOME of those events but those I have taken part in--in an EXCEPTIONAL way have changed my life's direction!

Pyramiding is one of those strategies which can SET YOU UP for EXCEPTIONAL results.

Once risk is understood (Its minimisation and in many cases eradication) it should release everyone from the burden of FEAR.

It is EXCEPTIONAL thinking and implementation which I'd like to see discussed in a practical sense.
Putting yourself.
(1) In front of the train
(2) On the train.
(3) Fueling the train.
(4) Maintaining and or leaving the train.

 

[Mr J]

Always plenty of opportunities in hindsight. However, many do not have the capital, skill or motivation to take advantage of them. How many people could afford multiple mortgages? Not most. How many would have shorted if you had convinced them that the market was going to plummet? Not most. The evidence suggests that these were exceptional opportunities because most are incapable of taking advantage of them. Exceptional opportunities generally limited to exceptional people?

 

[tech/a]

Don't know about that.
I wouldn't describe myself as exceptional.
In fact during the property boom friends described me as a crazy.

(1) You don't have to have as much capital as you might imagine.
(2) Ability to recognise opportunity most have--many without hind site.
Ability to take advantage of opportunity most need to aquire.
Ability to Pull the trigger is where the great majority fail due to fear.
Fear of loss---remove that and you WILL release yourself.

The evidence suggests that these were exceptional opportunities because most are incapable of taking advantage of them.

Gold rising from $250- $1000 had little to do with the in capacity of people to take advantage of the rise! Same can be said for everything else. Unless of course you have this "evidence?"

Exceptional opportunities generally limited to exceptional people?

I think people can be seen as exceptional due to their actions.
Those same people can and do look totally different if they don't take care of RISK appropriately.

Perhaps we can investigate a $5000 trader taking advantage of this opportunity on a continuous timeframe as an exercise to prove (Hopefully) a point.
There are opportunities just like this EVERY week.

CLICK TO EXPAND

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Tech/a

Perhaps some need to recognise that there is a train to begin with?

A nice summary of what has happened, but it will take an Exceptional minority again to recognise which train to line up for, which is the hard part in this climate. A minimum starting point would be getting compound interest on idol cash while deciding on the train - a minimum of 4.5% at call?

Perhaps you can start off with a suggestion for a train and why?

 

[tech/a]

Tech/a

Perhaps some need to recognise that there is a train to begin with?

I guess my target audience is here.Limited I know but I would expect that those here would at least know a train if it went by them.

A nice summary of what has happened, but it will take an Exceptional minority again to recognise which train to line up for, which is the hard part in this climate. A minimum starting point would be getting compound interest on idol cash while deciding on the train - a minimum of 4.5% at call?

Perhaps you can start off with a suggestion for a train and why?

I'm not suggesting this thread as a personal exercise in how clever I can be wether that be in hindsite or live.
But as an open discussion in how I am doing it when I see it and how ANYONE else can as well.
It's (Taking advantage of exceptional circumstances) perfect from the point of view of releasing fear.

But many cannot be foreseen.
In the above example you can and will often place yourself in front of a "Potential" run away train only to see it fly past,pull up and even reverse.

The point is that you must place yourself in front of opportunity.
No point in looking back at it!

Opportunity will present itself at a micro level like the example above and a macro level like a freight train.

The NEXT freight train I see is Inflation in the form of Inflation/Stagflation.
So I'm looking for
(1) Increase in AU$
(2) Rise In Commodity prices.
(3) Decrease in buying power of cash due to hikes in prices.

I'm looking at Commodities (Micro and Macro) and Property (Macro).

 

[Mr J]

I wouldn't describe myself as exceptional.

Most of us wouldn't, but exceptional acts make exceptional people, at least in that area.

(1) You don't have to have as much capital as you might imagine.
(2) Ability to recognise opportunity most have--many without hind site.
Ability to take advantage of opportunity most need to aquire.
Ability to Pull the trigger is where the great majority fail due to fear.
Fear of loss---remove that and you WILL release yourself.

These are simple for you, but not for most. It's not just fear, it's also ignorance. Humans have a habit of jumping into the deep end unprepared. If most people were capable of it, these opportunities would not exist in the way that they do. Inability to pull the trigger might be where most fail, but only because they don't pull the trigger. If they did, many would end up failing for one of many other reasons.

Gold rising from $250- $1000 had little to do with the in capacity of people to take advantage of the rise! Same can be said for everything else. Unless of course you have this "evidence?"

Who knew it would go from $250 to $1000? Who knew it was going to continue from $500? How is average Joe aware of all of this happening? It's a lot more complicated than you make it sound. As for evidence, I can point to the billions who haven't been financially successful.

Perhaps we can investigate a $5000 trader taking advantage of this opportunity on a continuous timeframe as an exercise to prove (Hopefully) a point.

All you will prove is that an informed and skillful person can make a lot of money by taking advantage of opportunities that most pass up. This makes this person an exception, which adds further evidence to my statement that exceptional opportunities are for exceptional people.

There are opportunities just like this EVERY week.

Yes, but the smooth, sharp trader will snap it up, not Joe Public :.

but it will take an Exceptional minority again to recognise which train to line up for

Agreed. Opportunities are there if you're good enough to spot them and then take advantage of them. Most people are not, even when they try. I'm not trying to be elitest, but if the world is a pie, most are destined to only receive a very, very small slice.

 

[MrBurns]

Thats great but tell me what's going to happen NEXT week.

 

[Timmy]

Thanks Tech, good thread. ASF is a great community, great board, amazing diversity of topics and opinions.

But the main aim of being here, for me anyway, is to find ways to grow the wallet (specifically through trading financial markets). I think we can grow this thread with that goal in mind.

 

[tasmart]

I guess my target audience is here.Limited I know but I would expect that those here would at least know a train if it went by them.


The point is that you must place yourself in front of opportunity.
No point in looking back at it!

Opportunity will present itself at a micro level like the example above and a macro level like a freight train.

The NEXT freight train I see is Inflation in the form of Inflation/Stagflation.
So I'm looking for
(1) Increase in AU$
(2) Rise In Commodity prices.
(3) Decrease in buying power of cash due to hikes in prices.

I'm looking at Commodities (Micro and Macro) and Property (Macro).

I like your line of thought but don't underestimate fate luck & chance! And it always easy looking backwards.

Preparing for inflation I think is really sensible - those that remain cashed up will loss out!

Commodites & Aus $ are very closely correlated.

I also think that oil is going to go through the roof (and higher) - I've been reading a lot about peak oil - which should give some opportunity not only in oil but also as alternative energy sources are developed.

Food & agriculture must also become a prime area - but seems to be poorly developed from an investment point of view to date and is heavily associated with chance & luck & weather - and has been infected with financial innovation!

I have weathered the GFC relatively well - partly because I cashed up heavily early on, partly because I took profit out of my financial stocks and partly pure luck! I topped up quite a bit early in the year and am heavy in commodities & oil stocks and banks. I am starting to be interesting in being a bit more speculative again so am interested in any thoughts!

I should add all my share portfolio is now in my SMSF with about 10 years to go before retirement but already quite a decent amount.

I would love some left field suggestions!

 

[Trembling Hand]

The NEXT freight train I see is Inflation in the form of Inflation/Stagflation.
So I'm looking for
(1) Increase in AU$
(2) Rise In Commodity prices.

These two will counter each other for the Aussie punter. The theme may well play out but making AUD out of it will be a very tricky game, I reckon.

Have a look at AUD gold. Killer for commodities bulls in an Aussie paddock :

 

[ojm]

Thats great but tell me what's going to happen NEXT week.

My thoughts too. Hindsight is easy.

 

[kincella]

My 2 cents worth....I started off being smart in 2000 and bought all these cheap little properties....just because I could, and intended to hold for many years into retirement.....no one else seemed to be interested in property at the time......then by 2004 I was being offered some wonderful figures ....so I sold half of them....and lets say I made some very good profits....
I did take out about 1/3rd of my stocks by Dec 07....with some more nice profits.....but I should have taken the lot out...in hindsight.....
I have had the feeling/ intuition that we were heading back into another little property boom......but look at this in Melbourne....its too much and too soon...
now my advice.....be in a position to borrow funds...take advantage of the low interest rates and lock in at around 5%.....if that means getting your tax in order early...so its ready for the bank or the broker...
you borrow as much as you need, being conservative, when the rates are low...
oh and have cash in the kitty for the rainy days...that will come...or ready for an opportunity.....
extract from the article........
Record auction rate sparks growing concernChris Vedelago
June 28, 2009

MELBOURNE'S auction clearance rate has held its ground at the second-highest level on record, with this latest performance fuelling speculation the market could be heating up too much, too fast.

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria reports this week's clearance rate was 86 per cent for 425 auctions. The results of another 31 scheduled auctions were unreported.

This is the seventh consecutive week when the clearance rate has been above 80 per cent, while private sale transactions have continued to surge ahead of even 2007 levels.

"There's no doubt that consumers are showing strong confidence in Melbourne's property market, judging by the results we're seeing for both auctions and private sales," said REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo.

The overall sales performance, and increasingly common reports of prices being achieved well above reserve, is sparking plenty of confusion and some concern.

"It's not just supply and demand any more. You look at some sales and people are paying these prices with seemingly no logic behind the price they pay … they're buying properties just because they can afford to," said buyer's advocate Michael Ramsay.

In Brunswick, a crowd of about 400 watched, stunned, as the sale price of 10 Charles Street soared 61 per cent ”” or nearly $1 million ”” above its reserve.
Intense competition between four bidders saw the 1525-square-metre block sell for $2.58 million against a reserve of $1.6 million. Barry Plant real estate quoted the property at $1.5 million to $1.6 million.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/record-auction-rate-sparks-growing-concern-20090627-d0k5.html

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I like your line of thought but don't underestimate fate luck & chance! And it always easy looking backwards.

Preparing for inflation I think is really sensible - those that remain cashed up will loss out!

Commodites & Aus $ are very closely correlated.

I also think that oil is going to go through the roof (and higher) - I've been reading a lot about peak oil - which should give some opportunity not only in oil but also as alternative energy sources are developed.

Food & agriculture must also become a prime area - but seems to be poorly developed from an investment point of view to date and is heavily associated with chance & luck & weather - and has been infected with financial innovation!

I have weathered the GFC relatively well - partly because I cashed up heavily early on, partly because I took profit out of my financial stocks and partly pure luck! I topped up quite a bit early in the year and am heavy in commodities & oil stocks and banks. I am starting to be interesting in being a bit more speculative again so am interested in any thoughts!

I should add all my share portfolio is now in my SMSF with about 10 years to go before retirement but already quite a decent amount.

I would love some left field suggestions!

Correct me if I'm wrong but most here have the opinion that inflation is set to take hold and when most people are of the same mindset the market has a nasty way of surprising everyone. Does anyone consider that there may be a period of deflation? With allot of people due to retire in the next decade around the world and many having been stung in the tech bubble, housing bubble, GFC. Its seems to me that most will not re-enter aggresivley with what little they have left. At least not on the scale we have seen in the past in both property and shares speculation.
So I will be looking for prices to come down or stagnate but certainly not shoot up in a v shape recovery from here.
If you believe like I do the deflation will manifest from here then there is no better place to be then in cash?
Best
G

 

[Nyden]

Correct me if I'm wrong but most here have the opinion that inflation is set to take hold and when most people are of the same mindset the market has a nasty way of surprising everyone. Does anyone consider that there may be a period of deflation? With allot of people due to retire in the next decade around the world and many having been stung in the tech bubble, housing bubble, GFC. Its seems to me that most will not re-enter aggresivley with what little they have left. At least not on the scale we have seen in the past in both property and shares speculation.
So I will be looking for prices to come down or stagnate but certainly not shoot up in a v shape recovery from here.
If you believe like I do the deflation will manifest from here then there is no better place to be then in cash?
Best
G

You sound a little contradictory there, Gordon.

Everyone is expecting inflation / a new bubble, yet most people will not re-enter?

 

[tech/a]

These are simple for you, but not for most. It's not just fear, it's also ignorance. Humans have a habit of jumping into the deep end unprepared. If most people were capable of it, these opportunities would not exist in the way that they do. Inability to pull the trigger might be where most fail, but only because they don't pull the trigger. If they did, many would end up failing for one of many other reasons.

Ignorance plays a big part. But ignorance in thinking is the main reason people dont act. They just dont have the capacity to evaluate a situation/opportunity let alone analyse the risk.

I expect this thread to go someway in helping those who wish to travel the road---formulate a map or blue print for engaging opportunity with limited/deminished or no risk.

Who knew it would go from $250 to $1000? Who knew it was going to continue from $500? How is average Joe aware of all of this happening? It's a lot more complicated than you make it sound.

No one knows or knew how far it would travel. But many knew (Those informed or took the time and effort to be informed) that the train was leaving the station.If you werent on it at 300/400/500/600 or any other number then you were never going to be in a position to take advantage of THAT opportunity.

As for evidence, I can point to the billions who haven't been financially successful.

Sure but its not those who we target in this discussion---only those here.

All you will prove is that an informed and skillful person can make a lot of money by taking advantage of opportunities that most pass up. This makes this person an exception, which adds further evidence to my statement that exceptional opportunities are for exceptional people.

Well I was rather hoping to demonstrate how a relatively ordinary person can take a relatively abnormal situation and become involved in placing it in front of him at little and eventually NO risk so as to take advantage of micro exceptional opportunities. I dont expect this normal person to get it spot every time infact I know it will be a rare accasion. But Losses will be cut very short and winners will be belted along and once or twice a year you can expect something EXCEPTIONAL.

Yes, but the smooth, sharp trader will snap it up, not Joe Public :.

see above.

Agreed. Opportunities are there if you're good enough to spot them and then take advantage of them. Most people are not, even when they try. I'm not trying to be elitest, but if the world is a pie, most are destined to only receive a very, very small slice.

So lets just worry about US!

Thats great but tell me what's going to happen NEXT week.

You or I dont have to. We just have to keep placing ourselves infront of opportunity and when we catch it belt it!!.

But the main aim of being here, for me anyway, is to find ways to grow the wallet (specifically through trading financial markets). I think we can grow this thread with that goal in mind.

My aim as well.

I like your line of thought but don't underestimate fate luck & chance! And it always easy looking backwards.

Ah

Cant agree more --but if your not o the train when it turns into a Rocket then you have no hope of finding YOUR OWN luck do you?

Preparing for inflation I think is really sensible - those that remain cashed up will loss out!

Commodites & Aus $ are very closely correlated.

I also think that oil is going to go through the roof (and higher) - I've been reading a lot about peak oil - which should give some opportunity not only in oil but also as alternative energy sources are developed.

Food & agriculture must also become a prime area - but seems to be poorly developed from an investment point of view to date and is heavily associated with chance & luck & weather - and has been infected with financial innovation!

I have weathered the GFC relatively well - partly because I cashed up heavily early on, partly because I took profit out of my financial stocks and partly pure luck! I topped up quite a bit early in the year and am heavy in commodities & oil stocks and banks. I am starting to be interesting in being a bit more speculative again so am interested in any thoughts!

I should add all my share portfolio is now in my SMSF with about 10 years to go before retirement but already quite a decent amount.

I would love some left field suggestions!

How would you place yourself NOW in the position to take advantage of any massive surge in oil? With minimal or no risk?

My thoughts too. Hindsight is easy.

Sure is and thats all most look at.
The aim here is to turn those intersted into more of a minority than they currently are (They are currently looking for answers) lets find some.

T/H Agree.
Any long term measures for peak performance you are looking at or have implemented?

 

[Gordon Gekko]

You sound a little contradictory there, Gordon.

Everyone is expecting inflation / a new bubble, yet most people will not re-enter?

Is it?

I think most people are expecting inflation but I don't think it will happen. Maybe a little short term but I think prices will fall mid to long term As workers compete for scarce jobs and firms underbid each other for sales, wages and prices will come under pressure. Most people due to retire in the next decade will think twice about how much exposer they can manage and adjust there level of risk accordingly.


Best
G

 

[tech/a]

Is it?

I think most people are expecting inflation but I don't think it will happen. Maybe a little short term but I think prices will fall mid to long term As workers compete for scarce jobs and firms underbid each other for sales, wages and prices will come under pressure. Most people due to retire in the next decade will think twice about how much exposer they can manage and adjust there level of risk accordingly.
Best
G

Its ok to have a contradictory opinion to others I often do.
Provided you take care of your own blueprint who cares if others DONT see your opportunity.
Many have got it right and many have got it totally wrong when it comes to any opportunity.
Ive been spectacular in both sides of the Story!

If your wrong just brush yourself off and go again---you can because you deminished RISK.

 

[Mr J]

Well I was rather hoping to demonstrate how a relatively ordinary person

Yes, but I would argue that if they start taking advantage of great opportunities that most don't, then they become exceptional.

So lets just worry about US!

No problem .

 

[Trembling Hand]

T/H Agree.
Any long term measures for peak performance you are looking at or have implemented?

I'm moving to Hong Kong to earn Chinese Yuan before they pull their fingers out of the dyke and the flood gates break open.

 

[kincella]

the most important advice might be......only 10% of the population are very, very wealthy, 90% are not....
so if everyone you know is doing something the same...ie buying shares, props etc...then you should make a mental note to yourself...do not do that, or follow the crowd...they will not become wealthy.....