AIO - Asciano Limited

[CapnBirdseye]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Nice work! I have been thinking of getting back in on AIO, I think it might be a bit late for the current run - deals like this have a habbit of falling through. My thoughs are that inflated SP due to rumour and speculation a is real profit. One annoucement to the contary can do some real damage.

Good luck!

 

[Family_Guy]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I bought last month in the 60's and topped up nicely last week in the 40's and sold the lot today at 87.5, so i'm happy. My only real reasoning to sell today was i thought this might have been just a one day thing after an announcement. I remember once holding ABC at 1.10 or something and they made an announcement to sell their US stuff, and the last 45mins of the day it went up to 1.90ish.......so greed got the better of me and i placed a sell at $2 only to watch it settle down 70 or 80c the next day or so. So i'm going to hope that this kinda does the same and hits 60c again so i can buy again, because i actually like the stock. But it can climb as much as it wants since i picked this for the March tipping comp and it started at 46c, so either way i'm cool.

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

it can climb as much as it wants since i picked this for the March tipping comp and it started at 46c, so either way i'm cool.

All we need is a couple of good announcements and I'm sure I can get my $2.50 back.

QR is very interested in many parts of the company. Rumor has it that the top Execs and Upper Managment at QR (most of them X NSW SRA) have been give something on paper about when it acquires Pac Nat and how things will need to be integrated. Go figure, as QR are supposed to have an information "Ring Fence", so I'll believe it when I see it, because how can "Queenslanders" be so interested in something that was born in NSW!

 

[Mc Gusto]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I hold AIO

with the movement yesterday and even greater movement today i sense something is coming. Have no insight to any deals but the northward direction of price makes me think that others do. One to watch over the next few days for sure.

Thanks

Gusto

 

[eric35]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Yes, I agree there could be something in the wind, probaly selling off some asset. Could even be that a takeover is coming up. price has been climbing steadily over last weeks.

 

[Mc Gusto]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Street talk in today's Finnie has them rumoured to have a number of potential suitors with bids targeting $2 plus. Some ramping on the back of that today.

My opinion is that this could potentially take some time to agree and therefore could be a rocky ride for the next few weeks / months. Still I like to hold and will continue to.

Thanks

Gusto

 

[eric35]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I am hanging in there. I am sure that something is in the wind. It will take time, but they have good assets.

happy Trading

 

[george46]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Seems to have a very good market position - all but a monopoly - seems a very solid bet considering the general sentiments for major infracture/transport growth well into the future.

Seems to be crawling back AUG losses but had a downward trend well established prior to this.

Would welcome anyone elses thoughts too.

wawww i was in dip but i came out big time winner i wonder haw far will it go i hopee alot I am hanging in there

 

[wonderrman]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I have posted a chart of Asciano below. It is obviously a very bad fundamental company but the chart is actually not to bad. I'm not sure about its future prospects and debt problems, but stocks that fall the most usually rise quite high on any hint of good news. The stock all ready has, but there could be further to come.

Resistence of $1.6 is there but hopefully is broken after this consolidation pattern evolves. Who knows how long this could take though and of course the pattern could be broken if the price falls to the other side, volume is not great.

Haven't bought anything yet, but am watching from the side lines with keen iterest.

wonder.

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

And then???????????????

WTF was that post saying? I just fail to understand the message in it! Was it a Buy or Sell hint?

I bought at 44.5C. Am i a looser, winner or WoodDuck?

 

[wonderrman]

Re: AIO - Asciano

WTF was that post saying? I just fail to understand the message in it! Was it a Buy or Sell hint?

Think I made it pretty clear that I wouldn't be buying it until resistence is broken. Sorry next time I'll make sure I spell it out for you. Markets in general are **** so I'm cautious.

Obviously you are a winner if you bought in at 40 or so cents back in march.

W.

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Bit of a rumble in the mountain yesterday and today.

I think some resistance is "cracking"! It went to 1.61 in a short after-open frenzy!

Looks like any news, causes a rumble with this.

Will it explode?

 

[rajeev]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Bit of a rumble in the mountain yesterday and today.

I think some resistance is "cracking"! It went to 1.61 in a short after-open frenzy!

Looks like any news, causes a rumble with this.

Will it explode?

it has gone upto 1.625. without any explanation? perhaps bid for the assets known? above 1.70 will be good for me.

 

[DB008]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Have done a few trades on this one.

First time l entered this one, was around the .45 mark, sold around the .65 mark. Wish l had held on, but it was still choppy with the GFC still rocking the boat. Got back in around the 1.30 mark it's still going up. i'll probably hold through thick and thin on this one now.

Agree with Jez comments about Wonderrmanm, WTF???

 

[stoxclimber]

Re: AIO - Asciano

News in the AFR today, GIP has dropped out of a consortium with TPG over pricing differences, both companies still in talks with AIO. Agreement between GIP and AIO said to be unlikely because of pricing disagreements.

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

News in the AFR today, GIP has dropped out of a consortium with TPG over pricing differences, both companies still in talks with AIO. Agreement between GIP and AIO said to be unlikely because of pricing disagreements.

The way I read it is different. From what I understand, the rift is between GIP and TPG and GIP is probably going alone in the deal. (I think!)

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

May 09 Debt facility given a 6 month extension and the withholding of a Divi to reduce the principle is a plus. I think this is good news, but lets see how the rest of the market takes it on Monday!

 

[skc]

Re: AIO - Asciano

May 09 Debt facility given a 6 month extension and the withholding of a Divi to reduce the principle is a plus. I think this is good news, but lets see how the rest of the market takes it on Monday!

The May 09 facility was tiny at $200M-ish. There probably wasn't much problem to roll that over, but still a positive no doubt.

It still makes me laugh every time I see the phrase "monetisation process". That's a fancier name for selling asset when you are in distress.

A man walks into a pawn shop wishing the monetise his watch...

 

[Jez]

Re: AIO - Asciano

"monetisation process". That's a fancier name for selling asset when you are in distress.

A man walks into a pawn shop wishing to monetise his watch...

I know if they sell a part of the Above Rail business, it will be a very different story than that expressed in your analogy. Before the Above rail stuff was purchased, it was mostly owned by State Govs (NSW Freight and NRC and only cost 2.4 Billion). As a Blue Collar worker in that industry, I have seen the radical efficiency improvements and the immense pressure streaming down from upper management to cut costs. The old "free lunch" went out the door years ago, and I had heaps of them in the Gov owned days.

Here is some news on how it is. The majority of workers are now facing new rounds of EA negotiations and there is no hope in hell of a pay rise this coming year. Knowing whats happening outside our box, we workers seem to be happy with that.

In the top 3 operating costs for Above Rail is Diesel prices and Wages. Look at the Diesel price difference from late last year to now. Something to consider as well!

Asciano does have fine income producing assets, but it's just a bit hard to get good profit from an economy in distress.

 

[skc]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I know if they sell a part of the Above Rail business, it will be a very different story than that expressed in your analogy. Before the Above rail stuff was purchased, it was mostly owned by State Govs (NSW Freight and NRC and only cost 2.4 Billion). As a Blue Collar worker in that industry, I have seen the radical efficiency improvements and the immense pressure streaming down from upper management to cut costs. The old "free lunch" went out the door years ago, and I had heaps of them in the Gov owned days.

Here is some news on how it is. The majority of workers are now facing new rounds of EA negotiations and there is no hope in hell of a pay rise this coming year. Knowing whats happening outside our box, we workers seem to be happy with that.

In the top 3 operating costs for Above Rail is Diesel prices and Wages. Look at the Diesel price difference from late last year to now. Something to consider as well!

Asciano does have fine income producing assets, but it's just a bit hard to get good profit from an economy in distress.

I was merely referring to the spin management put on pull or partial asset sale. Many companies doing it in the current environment for a variety of reasons, but no one else calls it monetisation. It's asset sale.

Any sales to private equity players may further increase pressure to cut costs. On the other hand, if buyer is a super fund then may be better for the workers involved. Good luck with the industry.